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1.
High-latitude δ18O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring δ18O record (AD 1780–2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring δ18O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892–2003), tree-ring δ18O explained 29 % of interannual variability in April–July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the δ18O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the δ18O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric δ18O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other δ18O records from this region. Our δ18O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.  相似文献   

2.
The Rarotonga coral Sr/Ca time series (Linsley et al. in Science 290:1145–1148, 2000) provides a near-monthly resolved proxy record of South Pacific climate variability over the last ~300 years. Here we show that two distinct interdecadal, quasi-periodic time components with periods of ~80 and ~25 years can be identified in this time series by Singular Spectrum Analysis. Their associated spatial patterns in the global sea surface temperature (SST) field show notable differences. Whereas the multidecadal component is associated with a global SST pattern that was recently associated with solar forcing on multidecadal timescales, the bidecadal component is associated with a well known pattern of Pacific decadal to interdecadal SST variability.  相似文献   

3.
Changes in maximum spring and summer temperature are expected to have impacts on plant phenology and the occurrence of forest fires. Homogenised instrumental records of maximum spring and summer temperature are available in northern France for the past century, as well as documentary records of grape harvest dates and forest fire frequencies. Here we provide a new proxy of seasonal climate obtained by the analysis of latewood tree ring cellulose isotopic composition (δ18O, δ13C and δD), from 15 living oak trees (Quercus petraea) sampled in the Fontainebleau forest, near Paris. For the past 30 years, we have conducted a study on the inter-tree (for oxygen isotopes) and inter-station (for oxygen and hydrogen) isotopic variability. Multiple linear regression statistical analyses are used to assess the response function of documentary and tree-ring isotopic records to a variety of climatic and hydrological parameters. This calibration study highlights the correlation between latewood tree-ring δ18O and δ13C, grape harvest dates and numbers of forest fire starts with maximum growing season (April to September) temperature, showing the potential of multiple proxy reconstructions to assess the past fluctuations of this parameter prior to the instrumental period.  相似文献   

4.
Previous studies have linked the rapid sea level rise (SLR) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) since the early 1990s to the Pacific decadal climate modes, notably the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the north Pacific or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) considering its basin wide signature. Here, the authors investigate the changing patterns of decadal (10–20 years) and multidecadal (>20 years) sea level variability (global mean SLR removed) in the Pacific associated with the IPO, by analyzing satellite and in situ observations, together with reconstructed and reanalysis products, and performing ocean and atmosphere model experiments. Robust intensification is detected for both decadal and multidecadal sea level variability in the WTP since the early 1990s. The IPO intensity, however, did not increase and thus cannot explain the faster SLR. The observed, accelerated WTP SLR results from the combined effects of Indian Ocean and WTP warming and central-eastern tropical Pacific cooling associated with the IPO cold transition. The warm Indian Ocean acts in concert with the warm WTP and cold central-eastern tropical Pacific to drive intensified easterlies and negative Ekman pumping velocity in western-central tropical Pacific, thereby enhancing the western tropical Pacific SLR. On decadal timescales, the intensified sea level variability since the late 1980s or early 1990s results from the “out of phase” relationship of sea surface temperature anomalies between the Indian and central-eastern tropical Pacific since 1985, which produces “in phase” effects on the WTP sea level variability.  相似文献   

5.
Ming Tan 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):1067-1077
Inter-annual variation in the ratio of 18O to 16O of precipitation (δ18Op) in the monsoon regions of China (MRC, area approximately east of 100°E) has not yet been fully analyzed. Based on an analysis of the relationships between the time series of amount-weighted mean annual δ18O in precipitation (δ18Ow) and meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation as well as atmospheric/oceanic circulation indices, it is recognized that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle appears to be the dominant control on the inter-annual variation in δ18Op in the MRC. Further analysis shows that the trade wind plays a role in governing δ18Ow through affecting the intensity of the different summer monsoon circulations which are closely linked to the weakening (weaker than normal) and strengthening (stronger than normal) of the trade wind and gives the δ18Ow different values at or over inter-annual timescales. The southwest monsoon (SWM) drives long-distance transport of water vapor from Indian Ocean to the MRC, and along this pathway increasing rainout leads to more negative δ18Ow via Rayleigh distillation processes. In contrast, the southeast monsoon (SEM), which is consistent with the changes in the strength of the West Pacific subtropical high, drives short-distance water vapor transport from the West Pacific Ocean to the MRC and leads to less negative δ18Ow. Therefore, the δ18Ow value directly reflects the differences in influence between the SWM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is strong, and the SEM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is weak. In addition, the South China Sea Monsoon also transports local water vapor as well as plays a role in achieving the synchronization between the δ18Ow and ENSO. The author thus terms the δ18Op rhythm in the MRC the “circulation effect”. In turn, the δ18Op variation in the MRC has the potential to provide information on atmospheric circulation and the signal of δ18Op recorded in natural archives can then be used to deduce a long-term behavior of the tropical climate system.  相似文献   

6.
The interpretation of stable isotopes in speleothems in terms of past temperature variability or precipitation rates requires a comprehensive understanding of the climatic factors and processes that influence the δ18O signal in the way through the atmosphere to the cave, where carbonate precipitates acquiring its final isotopic composition. This study presents for the first time in the Iberia Peninsula an integrated analysis of the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18Op) during 2010–2012 years and, through a detailed monitoring survey, the transference of the primary isotopic signal throughout the soil and epikarst into the Molinos cave (Teruel, NE Spain). Both air temperature and amount of precipitation have an important effect on δ18Op values, clearly imprinting a seasonal variability modulated by an amount effect when rainfall events are more frequent or intense. Air mass history and atmospheric circulation influences are considered through the study of weather types, synoptic-scale climate patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) revealing a dominant source effect on δ18Op values in this region where tropical North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean are the two moisture source regions. A delay of 2–3 months occurs between the dripwater oxygen isotopic composition (δ18Od) respect to δ18Op values as a consequence of large residence time in the epikarst. Limited calcite precipitates are found from winter to spring when δ18Od values are less negative and dripwater rates are constant. This study suggests that NE Iberian δ18Ocalcite proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall and, if extending present-day situation towards the recent past, a biased signal towards winter values should be expected in Molinos speleothem records.  相似文献   

7.
Prior to the 20th century Northern Hemisphere average surface air temperatures have varied in the order of 0.5 °C back to AD 1000. Various climate reconstructions indicate that slow cooling took place until the beginning of the 20th century. Subsequently, global-average surface air temperature increased by about 0.6 °C with the 1990s being the warmest decade on record. The pattern of warming has been greatest over mid-latitude northern continents in the latter part of the century. At the same time the frequency of air frosts has decreased over many land areas, and there has been a drying in the tropics and sub-tropics. The late 20th century changes have been attributed to global warming because of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activities. Underneath these trends is that of decadal scale variability in the Pacific basin at least induced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which causes decadal changes in climate averages. On interannnual timescales El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes much variability throughout many tropical and subtropical regions and some mid-latitude areas. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides climate perturbations over Europe and northern Africa. During the course of the 21st century global-average surface temperatures are very likely to increase by 2 to 4.5 °C as greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase. At the same time there will be changes in precipitation, and climate extremes such as hot days, heavy rainfall and drought are expected to increase in many areas. The combination of global warming, superimposed on decadal climate variability (IPO) and interannual fluctuations (ENSO, NAO) are expected lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change that will be unprecedented in the history of human settlement. Although the changes of the past and present have stressed food and fibre production at times, the 21st century changes will be extremely challenging to agriculture and forestry.  相似文献   

8.
The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ18O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ18O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ18O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ18O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ18O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.  相似文献   

9.
Greenland ice cores offer seasonal to annual records of δ18O, a proxy for precipitation-weighted temperature, over the last few centuries to millennia. Here, we investigate the regional footprints of the North Atlantic weather regimes on Greenland isotope and climate variability, using a compilation of 22 different shallow ice-cores and the atmospheric pressure conditions from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR). As a first step we have verified that the leading modes of winter and annual δ18O are well correlated with oceanic (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) and atmospheric [North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)] indices respectively, and also marginally with external forcings, thus confirming earlier studies. The link between weather regimes and Greenland precipitation, precipitation-weighted temperature and δ18O is further explored by using an isotope simulation from the LMDZ-iso model, where the 3-dimensional wind fields are nudged to those of 20CR. In winter, the NAO+ and NAO? regimes in LMDZ-iso produce the largest isotopic changes over the entire Greenland region, with maximum anomalies in the South. Likewise, the Scandinavian blocking and the Atlantic ridge also show remarkable imprints on isotopic composition over the region. To assess the robustness and model dependency of our findings, a second isotope simulation from the isotopic model is also explored. The percentage of Greenland δ18O variance explained by the ensemble of weather regimes is increased by a factor near two in both LMDZ-iso and IsoGSM when compared to the contribution of the NAO index only. Similarly, weather regimes provide a net gain in the δ18O variance explained of similar magnitude for the whole set of ice core records. Greenland δ18O also appears to be locally affected by the low-frequency variations in the centres of action of the weather regimes, with clearer imprints in the LMDZ-iso simulation. This study opens the possibility for reconstructing past changes in the frequencies of occurrence of the weather regimes, which would rely on the sensitive regions identified here, and the use of additional proxies over the North Atlantic region.  相似文献   

10.
A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years.  相似文献   

11.
We assess the responses of North Atlantic, North Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to natural forcing and their linkage to simulated global surface temperature (GST) variability in the MPI-Earth System Model simulation ensemble for the last millennium. In the simulations, North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs show a strong sensitivity to external forcing and a strong connection to GST. The leading mode of extra-tropical North Pacific SSTs is, on the other hand, rather resilient to natural external perturbations. Strong tropical volcanic eruptions and, to a lesser extent, variability in solar activity emerge as potentially relevant sources for multidecadal SST modes’ phase modulations, possibly through induced changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between North Atlantic and North Pacific that can persist over decadal and multidecadal timescales. Linkages among low-frequency regional modes of SST variability, and among them and GST, can remarkably vary over the integration time. No coherent or constant phasing is found between North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes over time and among the ensemble members. Based on our assessments of how multidecadal transitions in simulated North Atlantic SSTs compare to reconstructions and of how they contribute characterizing simulated multidecadal regional climate anomalies, past regional climate multidecadal fluctuations seem to be reproducible as simulated ensemble-mean responses only for temporal intervals dominated by major external forcings.  相似文献   

12.
Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818–1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data.  相似文献   

13.
In the Pacific Ocean, the coherent pattern of interdecadal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last 100 years has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). To examine past variations in the IPO we have generated time series of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotopes (18O) from South Pacific Porites coral colonies growing at Rarotonga (1997 to 1726) and Fiji (1997 to 1780). At both sites skeletal Sr/Ca is highly correlated with instrumental SST at least back to 1970 and 18O appears to reflect both SST and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) effects on seawater 18O. Comparison of our results to a New Caledonia coral 18O record and to indices of interdecadal Pacific climate variability demonstrates that these South Pacific corals have accurately recorded twentieth century variations in the IPO and SPCZ. The coral records also indicate that higher amplitude and more spatially coherent IPO-related variability existed from 1880 to 1950 with notably poor between-site correlations in the mid-1800s. These observations suggest that the spatial IPO pattern in South Pacific SST was significantly more complex and/or poorly defined in the mid-1800s compared to that observed in the twentieth century. Comparison with North Pacific IPO indices also indicates that the degree of cross-hemispheric symmetry of interdecadal oceanographic variability has changed over time with a lower correlation between the North and South Pacific in the mid-1800s. This evidence suggests that the spatial pattern of the IPO at least in the South Pacific has varied over the last 300 years, with a major reorganization occurring after 1880 A.D.  相似文献   

14.
We present a new event-scale catalog of stable isotopic measurements from 5?years of storm events at 4 sites in southern California, which is used to understand the storm to storm controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation and validate the event-scale performance of an isotope-enabled GCM simulation (IsoGSM) (Yoshimura et?al. 2008). These analyses are motivated to improve the interpretation of proxy records from this region and provide guidance in testing the skill of GCMs in reproducing the hydrological variability in the western US. We find that approximately 40% of event-scale isotopic variability arises from the percentage of precipitation that is convective and the near surface relative humidity in the days prior to the storms landfall. The additional isotopic variability arises from the fact that storms arriving from different source regions advect moisture of distinct isotopic compositions. We show using both field correlation and Lagrangian trajectory analysis that the advection of subtropical and tropical moisture is important in producing the most isotopically enriched precipitation. The isotopic catalog is then used along with satellite-derived δD retrievals of atmospheric moisture to benchmark the performance of the IsoGSM model for the western US. The model is able to successfully replicate the observed isotopic variability suggesting that it is closely reproducing the moisture transport and storm track dynamics that drive the large storm-to-storm isotopic range. Notably, we find that an increase in moisture flux from the central tropical Pacific leads to a convergence of isotopically enriched water vapor in the subtropics and consequently an increase in δ18O of precipitation at sites along the entire west coast. Changes in poleward moisture flux from the central Tropical Pacific have important implications for both the global hydrological cycle and regional precipitation amounts and we suggest such changes can be captured through instrumental and proxy-reconstruction of the spatiotemporal isotopic patterns in the precipitation along the west coast of the US.  相似文献   

15.
Abrupt temperature changes during the last 1,500 years   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We investigate the occurrence of abrupt changes in a total of 35 different proxy records from the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere for the last ~1,500 years. The proxy records include ice-core δ18O, speleothem, tree ring width/density, marine sediment and lake sediment records with annual, sub-decadal or decadal resolutions. The aim is to explore the spatio–temporal distribution of abrupt climate changes using a kink point analysis technique. A clustering of warm kink points (the kink points with the highest temperatures) around AD 1000 appears corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period and indicates a geographically widespread temperature peak at that time. Kink points around AD 1000 are somewhat more numerous on higher latitudes than on lower latitudes. There are some tendencies for the coldest kink points (the kink points with the lowest temperatures) to be clustered in the ninetenth century, but they are generally more unevenly spaced in time than the warm peaks around AD 1000. The relative lack of kink points detected during the 1500 s–1700 s, likely the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, implies that this cold period was relatively stable and without abrupt events. A possible cluster of kink points on lower latitudes in the early ninth century is also found. No clear difference in the timing of kink points between the different proxy types can be observed.  相似文献   

16.
Observations indicate that recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability tends to be associated with the extratropical North Pacific through a relay teleconnection of a fast coupled ocean-atmosphere bridge and a slow oceanic tunnel. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model, forced by the observed decadal wind in the extratropical North Pacific, explicitly demonstrates that extratropical decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies may propagate to the tropics through a coupled wind-evaporative-SST (WES) feedback. The WES feedback cannot only lead to a nearly synchronous change of tropical SST, but also force a delayed adjustment of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper ocean to further sustain the tropical SST change. The study further suggests that the extratropical–tropical teleconnection provides a positive feedback to sustain the decadal changes in both the tropical and extratropical North Pacific.  相似文献   

17.
For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.  相似文献   

18.
Sea-level records show large glacial-interglacial changes over the past million years, which on these time scales are related to changes of ice volume on land. During the Pleistocene, sea-level changes induced by ice volume are largely caused by the waxing and waning of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the individual contributions of ice in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are poorly constrained. In this study, for the first time a fully coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models is used, simulating glaciations on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica. The ice-sheet models use a combination of the shallow ice and shelf approximations to determine sheet, shelf and sliding velocities. The framework consists of an inverse forward modelling approach to derive a self-consistent record of temperature and ice volume from deep-sea benthic δ18O data over the past 1 million years, a proxy for ice volume and temperature. It is shown that for both eustatic sea level and sea water δ18O changes, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets are responsible for the largest part of the variability. The combined contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is about 10 % for sea level and about 20 % for sea water δ18O during glacial maxima. However, changes in interglacials are mainly caused by melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with an average time lag of 4 kyr between melt and temperature. Furthermore, we have tested the separate response to changes in temperature and sea level for each ice sheet, indicating that ice volume can be significantly influenced by changes in eustatic sea level alone. Hence, showing the importance of a simultaneous simulation of all four ice sheets. This paper describes the first complete simulation of global ice-volume variations over the late Pleistocene with the possibility to model changes above and below present-day ice volume, constrained by observations of benthic δ18O proxy data.  相似文献   

19.
Stolpe  Martin B.  Cowtan  Kevin  Medhaug  Iselin  Knutti  Reto 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):613-634

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

  相似文献   

20.
Summary Tropical North African climate variability is investigated using a Sahel rainfall index and streamflow of the Nile River in the 20th century. The mechanisms that govern tropical North Africa climate are diagnosed from NCEP reanalysis data in the period 1958–1998: spatially – using composite and correlation analysis, and temporally – using wavelet co-spectral analysis. The Sahelian climate is characterised by a decadal rhythm, whilst the mountainous eastern and equatorial regions exhibit interannual cycles. ENSO-modulated zonal circulations over the Atlantic/Pacific sector are important for decadal variations, and create a climatic polarity between South America and tropical North Africa as revealed through upper-level velocity potential and convection patterns. A more localised N–S shift in convection between the Sahel and Guinea coast is associated with the African Easterly Jet.  相似文献   

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