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1.
Using the output from five climate model experiments (four equilibrium GCMs and one transient GCM) for a double carbon dioxide
atmospheric concentration, the climate change scenarios in Romania for a time slice up to 2075 were constructed. These scenarios
were used to assess the climate change impacts on different resource sectors: agricultural crops, forests, and water resources.
The vulnerability of each sector and specific adaptation options were then analysed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
2.
Werapol Bejranonda Manfred Koch Sucharit Koontanakulvong 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(5):2079-2086
Many irrigation projects in the central plain of Thailand are not capable of providing sufficient surface water for the cultivation of rice, which is the major cash crop for Thai farmers. To overcome this surface water deficiency, which has been exacerbated in recent years by climate change, groundwater is increasingly being used for irrigation. Thus, large sections of agriculture lands have been converted to conjunctive water use regions. While conjunctive water use may be a suitable option to overcome the temporary water shortages on a short-term basis, it may pose a particular threat to the overall water resources in the long term, if not properly managed. As a remedy, conjunctive water management policies ought to be adopted. Conjunctive water management is basically a tool to optimize productivity, equity, and environmental sustainability through simultaneous management of surface water and groundwater resources. As of now, such a comprehensive approach has not been yet employed in the upper Chao Phraya basin of Thailand, and the present study is one of the first of this kind. The study region is the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project (PIP) where conjunctive water use has become indispensable for meeting the increasing water requirements for farming. To get a first grip on the issue, water demand, supply and actual use in the study area were investigated for the purpose of providing possible guidelines for optimal water exploitation. A numerical groundwater model with a special module for simulating surface-groundwater interaction was applied in the PIP area to understand the impact of the farmer’s irrigation behavior on the dominant hydrological processes that determine the seasonal and multi-annual water availability in the irrigation area. A set-up of different agricultural water allocation schemes that depend on the local weather conditions and the regional management rules are examined by the numerical models. The results of the simulations provide adaptation guidelines for the proper management of the conjunctive water resources, namely, optimal water utilization. The numerical results for the surface groundwater in particular indicated that while the irrigation canals recharge water to the aquifer during both dry and wet season, small amounts of discharge from the aquifers to the canals occur only during the wet season. The analysis of the groundwater balance also showed that the present available groundwater potential is not fully exploited by the farmers, especially during the dry periods of surface water shortage. In contrast, the adoption of an optimal conjunctive management scheme would ensure extra water availability for additional annual rice crops in the region. 相似文献
3.
基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数的新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹驱动因素研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
水资源紧缺是限制我国西北干旱区农业发展的主要瓶颈,正确评估地区农业用水效率及其影响机制,可为提高农业用水效率提供理论依据。以新疆为研究区,基于1988-2015年的长系列数据,分别计算出历年北疆、南疆、东疆典型作物（小麦、棉花）生产水足迹,并采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数定量分析气象因素（年降雨量、年日照时数、年均温度、年均风速、年均湿度）和技术因素（农机总动力、有效灌溉率、化肥施用折纯量）对作物生产水足迹的影响贡献率。结果表明： 1988年至2015年,东疆小麦、棉花生产水足迹显著高于北疆和南疆,在气候变化和技术进步的综合影响下,各地区典型作物生产水足迹逐年降低,其中技术进步对新疆典型作物单产水足迹影响显著高于气候因素,是驱动新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹变化的主要控制因素。地区尺度上,北疆、南疆、东疆气候变化和农业技术发展均呈现显著的地区差异,总体来看,北疆气候条件最适宜作物生长,东疆气候最为恶劣,北疆、南疆农业技术发展速率整体上高于东疆。 相似文献
4.
模拟作物适宜生长区的时空分布是分析气候变化对作物生长影响、提高作物生长适应能力的重要内容。选择影响主要粮食作物(小麦、玉米和水稻)生长的气候要素,结合地表土壤和地面高程要素与农业观测站数据,模拟和分析1953—2012年主要粮食作物适宜生长区的变动,评估气候变化下作物的适应能力。研究发现:(1)60年来3种粮食作物适宜生长区对气候变化响应程度从大到小依次是小麦、水稻和玉米。(2)同一时空尺度上,主要粮食作物适宜生长类型区在南方农区较北方农区多样化,在山地较盆地多样化,在高原较平原多样化。(3)小麦生长适应气候变化的能力在多数农区略有上升。玉米生长的适应能力在北方和南方农区分别略微提高和下降。水稻生长的适应能力在长江中下游区、西南区和华南区相对稳定,在黄淮海区和东北区分别下降和提高。(4)60年来,主要粮食作物综合生长适应气候变化的能力在黄淮海区和长江中下游区下降,在其余农区升高。(5)玉米和水稻适宜生长区分别与播种面积和作物产量显著相关,这为模拟未来不同气候情景下二者适宜生长区的分布提供了可行性。小麦适宜生长区与播种面积和产量均不显著相关,未来需要考虑更多因素精准识别小麦适宜生长区,以便更为有效地提高小麦生长对气候变化的适应能力。 相似文献
5.
针对多水源多作物灌区,研究有限供水条件下灌区优化配水问题。模型中既考虑水库优化调度,又考虑田间优化配水。模型思路:根据灌区水土资源分布状况,将全灌区划分为多个子区,每个子区种植有若干种作物。如果把每个子区每种作物所在的田块看作一个土壤水库,则可采用水库群调度的方法研究这类灌区优化配水问题,文中采用的是优化控制方法。为了证明模型的正确性,同时建立了3个模型。模型1:既不考虑水库优化调度又不考虑田间优化配水;模型2:只考虑水库优化调度;模型3:只考虑田间优化配水。实例计算表明,整合调度模型能产生较多的效益(特别在干旱年份),优化控制方法计算性能良好。 相似文献
6.
作物水分利用效率是评价农业用水效率的重要指标,由于气候差异,采用作物水分利用效率评价不同区域的用水效率可能存在一定误差,尚缺乏深入研究。基于潜在水分利用效率指标和气象数据,计算了2014年中国小麦、玉米和水稻在充分灌溉条件下的潜在水分利用效率,分析了区域气候差异对作物水分利用效率的影响,提出了相对水分利用效率和理论节水潜力的概念和计算方法,并进行了实例研究。结果表明:各类作物在不同站点的潜在水分利用效率的标准差为0.49~1.01 kg/m3,多数作物潜在水分利用效率的空间差异大于实际水分利用效率的空间差异;主要作物的平均相对水分利用效率为50.7%,其理论节水潜力为884.8~4 064.5 m3/hm2;作物水分利用效率和广义节水潜力指标可能高估或低估作物的用水效率和节水潜力。研究认为在比较区域间作物的水分利用效率时不能忽略气候差异的影响;由于考虑了区域气候差异,相对水分利用效率和理论节水潜力指标更合理。 相似文献
7.
K. Naddafi N. Jaafarzadeh M. Mokhtari B. Zakizadeh M. R. Sakian 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2005,1(4):273-277
Wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the best alternatives for compensating water shortages. Water supply and environmental conservation can be met through wastewater reclamation. Principally, treated wastewater is a reliable water resource, especially for periodic droughts and in arid areas. This study designed and implemented to investigate the full scale application of effluent for irrigation use. A major objective of this study is to assess on health effects and feasibility of crop irrigation by using stabilization ponds effluent of southern Hovaizeh Wastewater Treatment Plant located in Khuzestan Province. Two experimental plots of about 0.5 ha. were constructed. One of the plots irrigated by stabilization pond effluent and the other irrigated by Nisan River water. Basic parameters in two plots such as type of cultivated crops, amount of fertilizer use and lack of soil contamination have been similar in both. The only difference was the type of water applied for irrigation of agricultural crops. It was shown that high salinity of soil reduced the growth rate of agricultural crops. So, removing salinity from area should be performed before cultivation. Results gained on agricultural crops growth in two studied plots showed the growth rate and quality of crops were increased by using of stabilization pond effluent in comparison with Nissan River water. 相似文献
8.
Rebecca L. Schneider 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2010,4(1):117-125
Water scarcity is a becoming a critical issue globally, driven largely by the demands of an exponentially growing human population
and complicated by the impacts of climate change on the amounts and distribution of precipitation. It is also due to mismanagement
as scarce water resources are being used simultaneously for irrigation, power generation, public and industrial water supply,
flood reduction, and wastewater disposal without consideration of the cumulative impacts to the water resources themselves.
This paper outlines eight ecologically based principles and associated guidelines as the basis for integrated and watershed-based
management of the world’s water resources. 相似文献
9.
Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This article examines the disconnect between predictions about climate change and dominant geopolitical framings of the future. To begin, we introduce four popular geopolitical models of the world. We then show how climate change is a critical variable when considering the future of international politics. Focusing on the specific issues of water availability, agricultural productivity, coastal impacts, and shipping routes, we discuss the implications of predicted changes in the wake of climate change for the assumptions on which these scenarios are built. We show that work linking climate change and geopolitics has clear implications for the ways in which the future geopolitical (dis)order is conceptualized, and we argue that the failure to incorporate this work into geopolitical scenario-planning represents a significant limitation to their utility. We offer some direction for a re-conceptualization of the future based on a more dynamic and flexible approach to geopolitics that recognizes the disruptions posed by climatic and other environmental changes. 相似文献
10.
Rubens Gondim Cleiton Silveira Francisco de Souza Filho Francisco VasconcelosJr. Daniel Cid 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(15):550
The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%). 相似文献
11.
C. Lorz G. Abbt-Braun F. Bakker P. Borges H. B?rnick L. Fortes F. H. Frimmel A. Gaffron N. Hebben R. H?fer F. Makeschin K. Neder L. H. Roig B. Steiniger M. Strauch D. Walde H. Wei? E. Worch J. Wummel 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(5):1575-1586
Land-use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change are major controlling factors for water resources in the Distrito Federal in Western Central Brazil. Dynamic LUCC in the region has severe impacts on water resources, while climate changes during the last three decades is thought to have only moderate effects. LUCC affects water quantity mostly during base flow conditions. River basins with substantial expansion of agriculture since the end 1970s show a dramatic decrease of base flow discharge by 40?C70%, presumably due to irrigation. In contrast, the effects of urbanization on runoff are less distinct, since factors controlling runoff generation might be more variable. For water quality, we found urban areas to have a strong influence on the parameters CSB, NH4 +, and suspended solids. In addition, we assume emerging pollutants, e.g. organic (micro)pollutants, might play a major role in the future. The project IWAS-áGUA DF focuses on creating the scientific base to face these problems in frame of an IWRM concept for the region. Results of our study will be a contribution to an IRWM concept for the Distrito Federal and will help to maintain high standards in water supply for the region. 相似文献
12.
Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth, reducing the vulnerability of crop growth, and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change. This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat, maize and rice, and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables, as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables. The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012. The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change. The results showed the following:
13.
R. Corobov 《GeoJournal》2002,57(3):195-202
Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the
following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to
climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate,
key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics.
Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response,
possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate
change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal
crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat,
whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively.
As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase
in corn yields.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
14.
Tunisia has invested heavily in irrigation schemes to secure water supply. The management of irrigation systems has been denied to local water user associations (WUA). These WUAs are assimilated to a natural monopoly. They sell water to farmers at the unit operational cost (marginal production cost). Such a price does not allow for budgetary balance, which leads to a chronic deficit of these WUA. It also does not reflect the scarcity of the resource, a situation that contributed to irrigated area expansion, an increase in the agricultural water demand, and misallocation of the resource. Low cost recovery results in poor maintenance, infrastructure deterioration, and water distribution inefficiency. The purpose of this paper is two folds: (i) to propose an alternative price scheme which ensures cost recovery and water use efficiency and (ii) to examine the impact of this new price on the farms’ surplus. To achieve this goal, we assumed that irrigation’s water price increase will be necessary. A field survey of 75 farmers in the center of Tunisia was conducted to estimate the irrigation water demand function. We also used the data collected on 36 WUAs in the region to estimate the irrigation water production cost function using the OLS method for both demand and cost functions, and the peak and the non-peak irrigated demand functions (i.e., summer and winter). The methodology consisted of maximizing social surplus to derive optimal prices for both seasons. The main results show that an increase in price in the range of 11 to 15 % in the winter and 50 to 75 % in the summer results in 11 % decrease of the annual quantity consumed and in a 2 % increase in the social surplus. 相似文献
15.
The terrestrial water cycle is the mutual transformation of surface and near-surface water, which controls the supply of fresh water resources. It is affected by human activities, solar radiation and gravity, as well as climate and environmental conditions. Inter-basin water transfer, irrigation, crop cultivation and harvesting, exploitation of groundwater water and other human activities lead to the change of spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture, the underground water level, surface albedo, surface evaporation, as well as water and energy exchange between land surface and atmosphere. Human water use generates important feedback on the climate and changes the processes of the terrestrial water cycle significantly. The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in China is uneven. In addition, human activities further exacerbate the fragility of water resources and the contradiction between supply and demand, posing a serious challenge to the sustainable development of social economy. Therefore, understanding the laws and mechanisms of terrestrial water cycle change is very important for water resources utilization and human sustainable development. From the perspective of climate change and human activities, this paper summarized the impact of human activities on terrestrial water cycle and the progress of climate feedback research. It is urgent to consider the evolution of terrestrial water cycle and its climate under the dual impact of natural and human activities, and develop the large-scale land surface hydrological models and climate models with human water use, crop planting and irrigation, lateral groundwater flow. From the perspective of a fully coupled system, we need quantitatively to assess the climate feedback of human water use and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle process, and to explore its mechanism. We need to distinguish the contribution of human water activities and global climate change to the evolution of terrestrial water cycle in the context of climate change, and to propose water resources management strategies to address climate change. 相似文献
16.
17.
分布式水文模型PRMS可为气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源影响的研究提供技术和理论支撑.对Trent流域产流过程采用PRMS模型进行模拟检验,结果表明,Nash模型确定性系数达到0.8以上.水文响应单元(HRU)划分尺度减小,可以有效地提高PRMS模拟精度达7%左右,划分尺度缩小到71个HRU时,模拟精度不再提高.流域蒸... 相似文献
18.
Amir Asadi Vaighan Nasser Talebbeydokhti Alireza Massah Bavani 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(15):543
This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios. 相似文献
19.
T. O. Bengtsson 《Environmental Geology》1989,14(1):43-51
Well problems, water shortages, local flooding, and induced sinkholes have been periodic problems for residents in east-central Hillsborough County, Florida. This agricultural area has experienced dramatic short-term water-level declines in the Floridan aquifer from seasonal groundwater withdrawals. The sudden declines in the potentiometric surface have been caused from intense irrigation pumpage, primarily for frost and freeze protection and fruit setting. Citrus and strawberry crops are protected from occasional freezes by the application of warm groundwater to maintain minimum soil temperatures of 32°F(0°C). Local residents with inadequately constructed wells lose their source of water when the potentiometric surface is lowered to depths where their wells do not function. Some residents have lost their water supply for a week or more, and many have incurred damage to their pumps. The drawdown of the potentiometric surface in some areas has induced sinkholes causing property damage for some residents and concern for others. In addition, the high application rates for frost and freeze irrigation have created run-off problems resulting in local flooding to some residents. Fortunately, there has been no damage to resident homes from the flooding or sinkholes. This report summarizes the area's hydrogeology, and the consequences of heavy freeze irrigation. A finite-difference, numerical model is used to quantify the regional impacts to the potentiometric surface of the Floridan aquifer from estimated irrigation pumpage. Management recommendations for alleviating the problems are also discussed in the report. 相似文献
20.
Climate and water budget change of a Mediterranean coastal watershed, Ravenna, Italy 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Pauline Mollema Marco Antonellini Giovanni Gabbianelli Mario Laghi Valentina Marconi Andrea Minchio 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):257-276
It is generally difficult to quantify exactly the freshwater going in or out of the coastal watersheds along the northern
Adriatic Sea because, on one hand, excess water is drained and pumped into the sea to prevent flooding but, on the other hand,
water is brought onto the land from far away for irrigation. Fragmentation of water authorities makes it difficult to collect
all the necessary information. Climate change and increasing salinization of the coastal aquifers make it imperative, however,
to better know the quantities of freshwater involved in these small basins. The water budget of a small coastal agricultural
watershed along the Adriatic Sea in Italy (The Quinto Basin near Ravenna) is presented here considering different land uses.
The evaporation of open water and the evapotranspiration of wetlands, pine forests, bare soil and irrigated agriculture are
calculated based on the Penman–Monteith equation and the Cropwat program. The current water budget is based on average climate
data from 1989 to 2008 and drainage and irrigation data. Predictions for future evapotranspiration, net irrigation and hydrologic
deficit are calculated with climate data from IPCC (The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 200, Climate change 2007). From the study results, the soil type may determine whether or not a crop will need more or less irrigation in the future.
Regulations on land use should therefore consider which crop type can be grown on a specific soil type. Water budget analysis
in scenarios A1b and A2 both show an increase of water deficits in the summer and an increase of water surplus in the winter.
This is explained by the fact that a larger percentage of the rain will fall in winter and not during the growth season. The
open water evaporation will decrease under future climate scenarios as a result of increased relative humidity in winter and
decreased wind velocity. This may have a positive effect on the water cycle. The current irrigation is very abundant, but
has beneficial effects in contrasting soil salinization and saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. 相似文献