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1.
本文利用大洋环流模式POP研究RCP4.5情景下21世纪格陵兰冰川不同的融化速率对全球及区域海平面变化的影响。结果显示:当格陵兰冰川的融化速率以每年1%增加时,全球大部分海域的动力和比容海平面变化基本不变,主要是由于格陵兰冰川在低速融化时并不会导致大西洋经向翻转流减弱。当格陵兰冰川的融化速率以每年3%和每年7%增加时,动力海平面在北大西洋副极地、大西洋热带、南大西洋副热带和北冰洋海域呈现出显著的上升趋势,这是因为格陵兰冰川快速融化导致大量的淡水输入附近海域,造成该上层海洋层化加强和深对流减弱,导致大西洋经向翻转流显著减弱;与此同时,热比容海平面在北冰洋、格陵兰岛南部海域和大西洋副热带海域显著下降,而在热带大西洋和湾流海域明显上升;此时盐比容海平面的变化与热比容海平面是反相的,这是由于大量的低温低盐水的输入,造成北大西洋副极地海域变冷变淡、大西洋经向翻转流和热盐环流显著减弱,引起了太平洋向北冰洋的热通量和淡水通量减少,导致了北冰洋海水变冷变淡,同时热带大西洋滞留了更多的高温高盐水,随着湾流被带到北大西洋,北大西洋副极地海域低温低盐的海水,被风生环流输运到副热带海域。 相似文献
2.
In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11 Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific. 相似文献
3.
According to the current paradigm of modern climatology and oceanography, the global ocean thermohaline circulation works as the so-called “global ocean salinity conveyor belt” – a system of currents connecting different ocean basins and most notably – the northern North Atlantic and northern North Pacific Oceans – the most distant regions of the world ocean. It is shown here that a slight disparity in freshwater redistribution between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans can be sufficient for building up and maintaining a global conveyor-type ocean thermohaline circulation. On the other hand, relatively small changes in this disparity leading to change in sea surface salinity contrasts between and in the north-south within the northern parts of these two oceans can easily change the conveyor. 相似文献
4.
We study the reaction of a global ocean–sea ice model to an increase of fresh water input into the northern North Atlantic under different surface boundary conditions, ranging from simple restoring of surface salinity to the use of an energy balance model (EBM) for the atmosphere. The anomalous fresh water flux is distributed around Greenland, reflecting increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increasing fresh water export from the Arctic Ocean. Depending on the type of surface boundary condition, the large circulation reacts with a slow-down of overturning and gyre circulations. Restoring of the total or mean surface salinity prevents a large scale redistribution of the salinity field that is apparent under mixed boundary conditions and with the EBM. The control run under mixed boundary conditions exhibits large and unrealistic oscillations of the meridional overturning. Although the reaction to the fresh water flux anomaly is similar to the response with the EBM, mixed boundary conditions must thus be considered unreliable. With the EBM, the waters in the deep western boundary current initially become saltier and a new fresh water mass forms in the north-eastern North Atlantic in response to the fresh water flux anomaly around Greenland. After an accumulation period of several decades duration, this new North East Atlantic Intermediate Water spreads towards the western boundary and opens a new southward pathway at intermediate depths along the western boundary for the fresh waters of high northern latitudes. 相似文献
5.
IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.004 8 mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700 m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。 相似文献
6.
Daniel Kamykowski 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(10):1266-1277
Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO4) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO4]). The interannual stability of T–PO4 linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO4 datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO4 linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO4]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO4] from monthly maximum surface [PO4] to determine the annual surface [PO4] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean. 相似文献
7.
Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense
diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the
mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance
the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell
in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the
vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited
to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation
for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these
observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity
is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. 相似文献
8.
Abstract A two-dimensional Boussinesq ocean model has been used to investigate the effect of intermediate-level thermal and saline anomalies on the known multiple equilibria structure of the thermohaline circulation. These anomalies are taken as a crude representation of the Mediterranean outflow in the Atlantic Ocean. The associated perturbation drives the system towards an overturning which resembles the present average Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The sensitivity to the depth at which the anomaly is placed is also investigated. We found that near-surface anomalies are more efficient in affecting the structure of the equilibria. 相似文献
9.
10.
Observational evidence indicates that in the northern North Atlantic, especially in the Labrador Sea, almost the whole column of the ocean water is fresher, and colder in late 20th century than in 1950–1960s. Here we analyze a four-member ensemble of the 20th century simulations from a coupled climate model to examine the possible causes for these observed changes. The model simulations resemble the observed changes in the northern North Atlantic. The simulated results show that a decreased meridional freshwater divergence and an increased meridional heat divergence associated with a weaker thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic are the primary causes for the freshening and cooling in the northern North Atlantic. The increased precipitation less evaporation tends to enforce the freshening, but the reduced sea ice flux into this region tends to weaken it. On the other hand, the surface warming induced by a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration tends to heat up the northern North Atlantic, but is overcome by the cooling from increased meridional heat divergence. 相似文献
11.
上层经向翻转环流(shallow meridional overturning circulation, SMOC)主导热带-副热带上层海洋水体交换,对海洋物质输运和热量交换具有重要意义。基于7套海洋再分析数据产品,本文主要探讨了印度洋SMOC的冬夏季节变化及其差异的原因。结果显示,印度洋SMOC主要由南半球副热带环流圈(southern subtropical cell, SSTC)和跨赤道环流(cross-equatorial cell, CEC)组成,并且具有显著的季节差异。夏季风期间, SSTC和CEC均为表层南向输运,表层以下北向输运的逆时针环流结构。冬季风盛行时, SSTC仍维持逆时针结构,但环流中心南移且深度加深,强度弱于夏季;然而, CEC却转向为表层北向输运,表层以下向南输运的顺时针环流结构,其环流中心位置与夏季接近,环流强度与夏季相当。这种印度洋SMOC冬夏结构差异究其原因主要由风生环流主导, CEC冬夏季节环流方向反转是北印度洋冬夏季风转向的结果,而南印度洋信风的季节性位移和强度变化是SSTC强度和位置季节差异的主要原因。 相似文献
12.
关键海区潜沉率对全球变暖停滞的可能影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文从潜沉率入手,探究了潜沉率在全球变暖停滞过程中可能发挥的作用。本文利用SODA资料首先分析了全球潜沉率的时空分布特征,然后基于EOF分解明确了北大西洋翻转流区域和南极绕极流区域是潜沉率变率较大的两个海区,在此基础上选出了4个关键海区研究了局地潜沉率变化与全球海表温度异常之间的相关关系,最后对关键区潜沉率变化的原因进行了初步探索。结果表明,北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流范围内的关键区域与全球变暖停滞之间存在超前10年的相关关系,潜沉过程可能是北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流对全球变暖停滞产生作用的一种机制。平流项在这些关键区域的潜沉率变化中起主导作用。在南极绕极流地区,海面风应力的大小与该区域的潜沉变化密切相关。 相似文献
13.
Changes in the ventilation rate of the global ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries, as indicated by changes in the distribution of ideal age, are examined in a series of integrations of the Community Climate System Model version 3. The global mean age changes little in the 20th Century relative to pre-industrial conditions, but increases in the 21st Century, by an amount that is independent of the range of climate forcings considered. The increase is primarily due to a decrease in the ventilation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and to a lesser degree, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Changes in a regional volumetric census of age indicate that the changes in AABW are predominantly for waters that are already older than 100 years, so will likely have a moderate direct feedback on oceanic uptake of CO2 and other tracers. On the other hand, the changes in NADW occur most strongly in waters that are a few decades old, so are more likely to have a feedback on the climate system. While the global mean age increases, the age does not increase everywhere in the ocean. Regions newly exposed to strong atmospheric forcing as sea ice retreats experience an increase in convection and decreasing age. Age also decreases over a large volume of the lower thermocline as the rate of upwelling of old deep water decreases with the weakening of the thermohaline circulation. 相似文献
14.
15.
An idealised two-basin model is used to investigate the impact of the wind field on the heat exchange between the ocean basins. The scalar potential of the divergent component of the horizontal heat flux is computed, which gives a 'coarse-grained' image of the surface heat flux that captures the large-scale structure of the horizontal heat transport. Further the non-divergent component is examined, as well as the meridional heat transport and the temperature–latitude overturning stream function. A sensitivity analysis examines the heat transport response to changes in wind stress at different latitudes. The results are compared with results from an eddy-permitting global circulation model. The westerly wind stress over the Southern Ocean has two effects: a local reduction of the surface heat loss in response to the equatorward surface Ekman drift, and a global re-routing of the heat export from the Indo-Pacific. Without wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific heat export is released to the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean, and the net heat transport in the southern Atlantic is southward. With wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific export enters the Atlantic through the Aghulas and is released in the Northern Hemisphere. The easterlies enhance the poleward heat transport in both basins. 相似文献
16.
风生近惯性内波破碎引起的跨等密度面混合在海洋内部混合中起重要作用。然而其参数化对海洋模式的模拟影响仍有待进一步认识。本文给出的是在模块化海洋模式（MOM）中海洋表面边界层以下引入一个考虑风驱动近惯性内波破碎引起的跨等密度面混合参数化方案的研究工作。模拟结果显示,该方案有效改善MOM4模拟的上层1 000 m以上的温盐偏差,特别是在北太平洋和北大西洋的通风地区。数值试验表明,风生近惯性内波破碎有可能是维持海洋通风过程的重要机制之一,它使得海洋通风区的位温变冷,盐度变淡,整层等位密面加深。维持的通风过程使得北太平洋副极地大涡的影响延伸到副热带大涡。从而模拟的北太平洋中层水源头及其副热带大涡东侧的温盐更接近观测实际。同时,模拟的北大西洋经圈翻转环流强度也更为合理。 相似文献
17.
Water mass variations in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean along 20°W are analyzed with pentadal resolution over the past 15 years using data from four repeat occupations of a meridional hydrographic section running south from Iceland. The section was sampled in 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. The results are interpreted in the context of changes in air–sea forcing, ocean circulation, and water properties associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index oscillated around zero from 1984 to 1988, was strongly positive from 1989 to 1995, after which it shifted to lower positive, and occasionally negative values from 1996 to 2003. Previously published studies suggest that after the 1995–1996 shift of the NAO, the subpolar gyre largely retreated to the northwest in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in an increasingly southeastern character of local water masses with time. Water property changes extending from the SubPolar Mode Water (SPMW) just below the seasonal pycnocline through the density range shared by Mediterranean Outflow Water and SubArctic Intermediate Water (SAIW) along 20°W are consistent with changes in wind-driven ocean circulation and air–sea heat flux associated with shifts in the NAO, especially after accounting for ocean memory. After periods of lower NAO index the SPMW is warmer, saltier, and lighter. At these same times, large increases of apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and potential vorticity are found at the SPMW base, consistent with SPMW ventilation to lighter densities during lower NAO index periods. Deeper and denser in the water column, the cold, fresh, and dense SAIW signature within the permanent pycnocline that was most strongly present in 1993, near the culmination of a period of high NAO index, is much reduced in 1988 and 1998. In 2003, after a prolonged period of lower NAO index, increasing influence of warmer, saltier subtropical waters is clear within the permanent pycnocline. The deep penetration of the changes implies that they are caused primarily by circulation changes resulting from NAO-associated wind shifts, but changes in air–sea heat flux could also have played a role. 相似文献
18.
通过海气耦合模式CCSM3(The Community Climate System Model version 3),研究在北大西洋高纬度淡水强迫下,北太平洋冬季的海表温度SST、风场及流场的响应及其区域性差异。结果表明:淡水的注入使北太平洋整体变冷,但有部分区域异常增暖;在太平洋东部赤道两侧,SST的变化出现北负南正的偶极子型分布。阿留申低压北移的同时中纬度西风减弱,热带附近东北信风增强。黑潮和南赤道流减弱,北太平洋副热带逆流和北赤道流增强,日本海被南向流控制。风场及流场的改变共同导致了北太平洋SST异常出现复杂的空间差异:北太平洋中高纬度SST的降温主要由大气过程决定,海洋动力过程主要影响黑潮、日本海及副热带逆流区域的SST,太平洋热带地区SST异常由大气与海洋共同主导。 相似文献
19.
A coupled air–sea general circulation model is used to simulate the global circulation. Different parameterizations of lateral mixing in the ocean by eddies, horizontal, isopycnal, and isopycnal plus eddy advective flux, are compared from the perspective of water mass transformation in the Southern Ocean. The different mixing physics imply different buoyancy equilibria in the surface mixed layer, different transformations, and therefore a variety of meridional overturning streamfunctions. The coupled‐model approach avoids strong artificial water mass transformation associated with relaxation to prescribed mixed layer conditions. Instead, transformation results from the more physical non‐local, nonlinear interdependence of sea‐surface temperature, air–sea fluxes, and circulation in the model's atmosphere and ocean. The development of a stronger mid‐depth circulation cell and associated upwelling when eddy fluxes are present, is examined. The strength of overturning is diagnosed in density coordinates using the transformation framework. 相似文献
20.
观测显示过去几十年间北极入海径流呈现增加趋势,CMIP5耦合模式预测表明21世纪北极入海径流仍会增加,在RCP8.5路径下,21世纪末北极入海径流量将会是1950年的1.4倍。本文利用冰-海耦合数值模式研究了北极径流增加对大西洋经向翻转环流的影响。基于两个数值实验的结果表明,如果北极入海径流按每年0.22%的速度（与RCP8.5路径下的速度相当）增加,大西洋经向翻转环流的强度在100、150和200年后将会分别减弱0.6（3%）、1.2（7%）和1.8（11%） Sv。北极入海径流增加导致大西洋经向翻转环流减弱的主要原因是,北极入海径流增加的淡水被输运到北大西洋后,会抑制北大西洋深层水的生成,这也会导致北大西洋深层水海水年龄的增加。 相似文献