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1.
Performance assessments of repositories for the underground disposal of nuclear fuel and waste include models of ground water flow and transport in the host rocks. Estimates of hydraulic conductivity, K, based on field measurements may require adjustment (upscaling) for use in numerical models, but the choice of upscaling approach can be complicated by the use of nested modeling, large-scale fracture zones, and a high degree of heterogeneity. Four approaches to upscaling K are examined using a reference case based on exhaustive site data and an application of nested modeling to evaluate performance assessment of a waste repository. The upscaling approaches are evaluated for their effects on the flow balance between nested modeling domains and on simple measures of repository performance. Of the upscaling approaches examined in this study, the greatest consistency of boundary flows was achieved using the observed scale dependence for the rock domains, measured values from the large-scale interference test for the conductor domain, and a semivariogram regularization based on the Moye model for packer test interpretation. Making the assumption that large fracture zones are two-dimensional media results in the greatest changes to the median of travel time and improves the flow balance between the nested models. The uncertainty of upscaling methods apparently has a small impact on median performance measures, but a significant impact on the variances and earliest arrival times. 相似文献
2.
On the basis that hydrological users need to know the forecast uncertainty at the time that the forecast is issued, we computed distributions of radar rainfall forecast uncertainty as a function of forecast lead time, basin size, and forecasted rainfall intensity using data from the US 3-D National Mosaic of radar data. We document how exceptional forecasts such as those of heavy rainfall are generally biased. Since forecast uncertainty is also weather dependent, we tried to find good predictors to help either reduce the forecast uncertainty or better define it. These predictors were based either on characteristics of the current precipitation field or on the performance of the nowcast in the immediate past. The value of some predictors, especially those based on the properties of large-scale rainfall patterns, was significant though modest, the predictors being generally more skillful at characterizing forecast uncertainty than at improving forecast accuracy. 相似文献
3.
Large-scale numerical simulation of groundwater flow and solute transport in discretely-fractured crystalline bedrock 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A large-scale fluid flow and solute transport model was developed for the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto Island, Finland, which is considered as potential deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Site characterization showed that the main flow pathways in the low-permeability crystalline bedrock on the island are 13 subhorizontal fracture zones. Compared to other sites investigated in the context of deep disposal of spent nuclear fuel, most deep boreholes drilled at Olkiluoto are not packed-off but are instead left open. These open boreholes intersect the main fracture zones and create hydraulic connections between them, thus modifying groundwater flow. The combined impact of fracture zones and open boreholes on groundwater flow is simulated at the scale of the island. The modeling approach couples a geomodel that represents the fracture zones and boreholes with a numerical model that simulates fluid flow and solute transport. The geometry of the fracture zones that are intersected by boreholes is complex, and the 3D geomodel was therefore constructed with a tetrahedral mesh. The geomodel was imported into the numerical model to simulate a pumping test conducted on Olkiluoto Island. The pumping test simulation demonstrates that fracture-borehole intersections must be accurately discretized, because they strongly control groundwater flow. The tetrahedral mesh provides an accurate representation of these intersections. The calibrated flow model was then used for illustrative scenarios of radionuclide migration to show the impact of fracture zones on solute transport once the boreholes were backfilled. These mass transport simulations constitute base cases for future predictive analyses and sensitivity studies, since they represent key processes to take into consideration for repository performance assessment. 相似文献
4.
Models that calculate the probability that a new volcano or a dike from a nearby eruption will intersect the footprint of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository are generalized based on a conceptual model developed for the space transportation industry. The proposed hazard area, defined such that every new eruption that occurs there will disrupt the repository, plays a fundamental role in developing probability models. This hazard area is used not only to hedge the uncertainties in predicting patterns of future volcanic activity, but also to account for the characteristics of a new eruption during the post-closure performance period of an underground geologic repository. The paper discusses the advantages of probability comparisons, capabilities of conservativeness measurements and expert-elicitation on model parameters, and the implications to the proposed repository.Paper funded by a contract from the Agency for Nuclear Projects, State of Nevada, USA. 相似文献
5.
在中国大陆科学钻探孔区 (江苏省东海县南部 )进行了系统的地球物理调查 ,包括二维地震测网和专门的地震剖面 ,大地电磁法和位场方法等 .地震调查表明 ,在超高压变质岩出露区上地壳充满了反射体 ,包括倾斜反射体与上拱的反射弧 .本文介绍大陆科学钻探先行研究中地震调查的成果 .根据大陆科学钻探预先导孔的岩芯和测井资料、井旁VSP和数值模拟结果证实 ,高波速的榴辉岩体、破碎断裂带和大型韧性剪切带都可引起倾斜的地震反射 ,而上拱的弧形反射体则是由近似直立的榴辉岩体和其中的破碎带的综合反映 .由于地壳深部广泛分布着经受变质的岩石 ,上述研究结果对标定地壳中的反射地震信号具有一定意义 相似文献
6.
Bredehoeft JD 《Ground water》2003,41(5):571-577
Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence; beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly. The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon, 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless, numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment). This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is finally closed. 相似文献
7.
Jérôme Poisson Michel Chouteau Michel Aubertin Daniel Campos 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2009,67(2):179-192
Several field surveys of a waste rock pile were carried out during the summers of 2002 and 2003 using ground-penetrating radar, electromagnetic conductivity and DC resistivity imaging. The waste rock deposit is prone to generate acid mine drainage (AMD) due to the oxidation of sulphidic minerals. One of the most critical factors that lead to the production of AMD is unsaturated water flow and the ensuing moisture distribution in the waste rock. This geophysical characterization study, performed over a 30 m × 30 m test zone, was designed to image the internal structure controlling the water flux at shallow depth. The subsurface was found to consist of three zones for the first 6 m of the pile, mainly based on electrical resistivities: a thin superficial conductive material, an intermediate 2 to 3 m thick highly resistive zone, and a lower, more conductive medium. With the help of hydrogeological tests, chemical analyses and two 2.5 m-deep trenches, it is shown that the two conductive zones are correlated with fine-grained waste rock and the resistive zone correlates with a coarser material. In the two deeper zones, the contact between the two types of waste rock is typically highlighted by a sharp resistive/conductive boundary. An increase of conductance in the relatively thin upper layer towards the edge of the pile appears to be caused by an increase in thickness of the fine-grained material. Additional geophysical surveys carried out on a profile along the flank of the upper bench of the pile show that the main features of the internal structure are sub-parallel to the slope, at least for the first 3 m in depth. The data also show an increase in resistivity from the top to bottom of the slope, in accordance with expected particle segregation, from fine-grained material at the top to coarser material at the bottom. Wide-angle reflection GPR monitoring during large scale infiltration tests seems to indicate preferential flow paths towards the direction of coarser, more pervious material (which also appears to be less oxidized). Water preferentially flows through the coarse-grained material, but it is stored by capillary forces in the fine-grained material. Apart from the deposition methods, the results strongly suggest that factors such as machinery-induced mechanical alteration, construction history of the pile, and increased oxidization near the edges could explain the resistivity model. The model interpreted from geophysical imaging agrees well with the conceptual model of the rock pile. The resistivity and GPR methods appear to be efficient geophysical methods to characterize the internal structure and preferential flow patterns within unsaturated waste rock piles. 相似文献
8.
Integration of ground-penetrating radar and microgravimetric methods to map shallow caves 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and microgravimetric surveys have been conducted in the southern Jura mountains of western Switzerland in order to map subsurface karstic features. The study site, La Grande Rolaz cave, is an extensive system in which many portions have been mapped. By using small station spacing and careful processing for the geophysical data, and by modeling these data with topographic information from within the cave, accurate interpretations have been achieved.The constraints on the interpreted geologic models are better when combining the geophysical methods than when using only one of the methods, despite the general limitations of two-dimensional (2D) profiling. For example, microgravimetry can complement GPR methods for accurately delineating a shallow cave section approximately 10×10 m2 in size. Conversely, GPR methods can be complementary in determining cavity depths and in verifying the presence of off-line features and numerous areas of small cavities and fractures, which may be difficult to resolve in microgravimetric data. 相似文献
9.
3D anisotropic waveform inversion could provide high-resolution velocity models and improved event locations for microseismic surveys. Here we extend our previously developed 2D inversion methodology for microseismic borehole data to 3D transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis. This extension allows us to invert multicomponent data recorded in multiple boreholes and properly account for vertical and lateral heterogeneity. Synthetic examples illustrate the performance of the algorithm for layer-cake and ‘hydraulically fractured’ (i.e. containing anomalies that simulate hydraulic fractures) models. In both cases, waveform inversion is able to reconstruct the areas which are sufficiently illuminated for the employed source-receiver geometry. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the algorithm to errors in the source locations and to band-limited noise in the input displacements. We also present initial inversion results for a microseismic data set acquired during hydraulic fracturing in a shale reservoir. 相似文献
10.
We present the first demonstration of hydraulic tomography (HT) to estimate the three-dimensional (3D) hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution of a fractured aquifer at high-resolution field scale (HRFS), including the fracture network and connectivity through it. We invert drawdown data collected from packer-isolated borehole intervals during 42 pumping tests in a wellfield at the former Naval Air Warfare Center, West Trenton, New Jersey, in the Newark Basin. Five additional tests were reserved for a quality check of HT results. We used an equivalent porous medium forward model and geostatistical inversion to estimate 3D K at high resolution (K blocks <1 m3), using no strict assumptions about K variability or fracture statistics. The resulting 3D K estimate ranges from approximately 0.1 (highest-K fractures) to approximately 10−13 m/s (unfractured mudstone). Important estimated features include: (1) a highly fractured zone (HFZ) consisting of a sequence of high-K bedding-plane fractures; (2) a low-K zone that disrupts the HFZ; (3) several secondary fractures of limited extent; and (4) regions of very low-K rock matrix. The 3D K estimate explains complex drawdown behavior observed in the field. Drawdown tracing and particle tracking simulations reveal a 3D fracture network within the estimated K distribution, and connectivity routes through the network. Model fit is best in the shallower part of the wellfield, with high density of observations and tests. The capabilities of HT demonstrated for 3D fractured aquifer characterization at HRFS may support improved in situ remediation for contaminant source zones, and applications in mining, repository assessment, or geotechnical engineering. 相似文献
11.
随着我国核电工业建设步伐的加快,高放废物处置库的场址选择成为当前极为紧迫的课题。本文分析了甘肃北山高放废物处置库的选址现状,提出应加快相关核安全法规的建设以指导场址的选择;应对北山地区补充地震地质调查工作,特别是对区内的几条断层要进行断层能动性的研究。这对场址的适宜性是一个带有颠覆性的问题。 相似文献
12.
高放废物地质处置库选址要求围岩完整稳定,它与岩体深部地质结构密切相关,因此是场址评价中必须考虑的因素.在高放废物储库选址新区内蒙阿拉善塔木素岩体,采用可控源音频大地电磁法进行了剖面探测.分析了典型测深曲线,区分了地质构造和完整围岩的响应特征;针对高放废物预选场址的特点,对原始数据进行了处理;结合已有地质、钻井及测井资料完成了解释;结果表明,利用可控源音频大地电磁法有效地查明了该地岩体内部结构,该岩体存在裂隙和破碎,完整性欠佳. 相似文献
13.
U. Yaramanci 《Geophysical Prospecting》1994,42(3):229-239
The investigation of water in salt-rock formations is of particular relevance to underground nuclear waste repositories. In the Asse salt-mine (Germany) a study into the relationship of in situ resistivity to water content has been made. Measurements were carried out in older rock-salt using an electrode array in boreholes, an electrode profile in a drift and small resistivity sensors in and around a drift seal. Further measurements were made on moist zones in a contact area of younger rock-salt and carnallitite and also in older rock-salt with anhydrite bands using electrode profiles in the drifts. The resistivities range from 102Ωm to 106Ωm. Corresponding probes have water contents from 0.01% to 1.3%. A definite relationship between resistivity and water content is revealed which can be described by Archie's law using a cementation factor m of 1.9. Porosities are between 0.08% and 1.4% and the saturations vary considerably. An explicit influence of saturation on resistivity cannot be discovered using the present data. The results enable us to estimate the in situ water content and the order of the in situ porosity using resistivity surveys at different scales. This increases significantly the safety of a nuclear repository site. 相似文献
14.
G. Michael Hoversten 《Geophysical Prospecting》1996,44(6):935-961
Hydrocarbon exploration in the Papuan fold belt is made extremely difficult by mountainous terrain, equatorial jungle and thick karstified Miocene limestones at the surface. The high-velocity karstified limestones at or near the surface often render the seismic technique useless for imaging the subsurface. In such areas magnetotellurics (MT) provides a valuable capability for mapping subsurface structure. The main structural interface which can be mapped with MT, due to the large electrical contrast, is the contact between the resistive Darai limestone and the underlying conductive sediments of the Ieru Formation. In some areas the base of the Darai can be mapped with reasonable accuracy by fitting 1D models to the observed MT data. However, in many cases where 2D and 3D effects are severe, 1D interpretations can yield dramatically incorrect results. Numerical and field data examples are presented which demonstrate the severity of the 1D errors and the improvements in accuracy which can be achieved using a 2D inverse solution. Two MT lines over adjacent anticlines, both with well control and seismic data, are used to demonstrate the application of 1D and 2D inversions for structural models. In both cases the seismic data provide no aid in the interpretations. The example over the Hides anticline illustrates a situation where 1D inversion of either TE or TM mode provides essentially the same depth to base of Darai as 2D inversion of both TE and TM. Both models provide base Darai depth estimates which are within 10% of that measured in the well. The example over the Angore anticline illustrates the inadequacy of 1D inversion in structurally complex geology complicated by electrical statics. The TE mode fits a 1D Darai thickness of 800 metres while the TM mode fits a 1D Darai thickness of 3500 metres, bracketing the thickness of 2450 metres observed in the well. The final 2D inversion model provides a depth estimate of 2250 metres. Four MT lines along the Angore anticline have been interpreted using 2D inversion. A high degree of correlation exists between lineaments observed on an airborne radar image and zones of low resistivity within the high-resistivity material interpreted as Darai limestone. These low-resistivity zones are interpreted as fault zones. Three-dimensional modelling has been used to simulate 3D statics in an otherwise 2D earth. These data were used to test the Groom-Bailey (GB) decomposition for possible benefits in reducing static effects and estimating geoelectric strike in the Papua New Guinea (PNG) field data. It has been found that the GB decomposition can provide improved regional 2D strike estimates in 3D contaminated data. However, in situations such as PNG, where the regional 2D strike is well established and hence can be fixed, the GB decomposition provides apparent resistivities identical to those simply rotated to strike. 相似文献
15.
Qiang Dai Dawei Han Lu Zhuo Jun Zhang Tanvir Islam Prashant K. Srivastava 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):27-38
Uncertainty analysis of radar rainfall enables stakeholders and users have a clear knowledge of the possible uncertainty associated with the rainfall products. Long-term empirical modeling of the relationship between radar and gauge measurements is an efficient and practical method to describe the radar rainfall uncertainty. However, complicated variation of synoptic conditions makes the radar-rainfall uncertainty model based on historical data hard to extend in the future state. A promising solution is to integrate synoptic regimes with the empirical model and explore the impact of individual synoptic regimes on radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is an attempt to introduce season, one of the most important synoptic factor, into the radar rainfall uncertainty model and proposes a seasonal ensemble generator for radar rainfall using copula and autoregressive model. We firstly analyze the histograms of rainfall-weighted temperature, the radar-gauge relationships, and Box and Whisker plots in different seasons and conclude that the radar rainfall uncertainty has strong seasonal dependence. Then a seasonal ensemble generator is designed and implemented in a UK catchment under a temperate maritime climate, which can fully model marginal distribution, spatial dependence, temporal dependence and seasonal dependence of radar rainfall uncertainty. To test its performance, 12 typical rainfall events (4 for each season) are chosen to generate ensemble rainfall values. In each time step, 500 ensemble members are produced and the values of 5th to 95th percentiles are used to derive the uncertainty bands. Except several outliers, the uncertainty bands encompass the observed gauge rainfall quite well. The parameters of the ensemble generator vary considerably for each season, indicating the seasonal ensemble generator reflects the impact of seasons on radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is an attempt to simultaneously consider four key features of radar rainfall uncertainty and future study will investigate their impacts on the outputs of hydrological models with radar rainfall as input or initial conditions. 相似文献
16.
Piecewise 1D laterally constrained inversion of resistivity data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Esben Auken ers V. Christiansen Bo H. Jacobsen Nikolaj Foged Kurt I. Sørensen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(4):497-506
In a sedimentary environment, layered models are often capable of representing the actual geology more accurately than smooth minimum structure models. Furthermore, interval thicknesses and resistivities are often the parameters to which non‐geophysicist experts can relate and base decisions on when using them in waste site remediation, groundwater modelling and physical planning. We present a laterally constrained inversion scheme for continuous resistivity data based on a layered earth model (1D). All 1D data sets and models are inverted as one system, producing layered sections with lateral smooth transitions. The models are regularized through laterally equal constraints that tie interface depths and resistivities of adjacent layers. Prior information, e.g. originating from electric logs, migrates through the lateral constraints to the adjacent models, making resolution of equivalences possible to some extent. Information from areas with well‐resolved parameters will migrate through the constraints in a similar way to help resolve the poorly constrained parameters. The estimated model is complemented by a full sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, supporting quantitative evaluation of the inversion result. Examples from synthetic 2D models show that the model recognition of a sublayered 2D wedge model is improved using the laterally constrained inversion approach when compared with a section of combined 1D models and when compared with a 2D minimum structure inversion. Case histories with data from two different continuous DC systems support the conclusions drawn from the synthetic example. 相似文献
17.
The U.S. Department of Energy is currently studying Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a potential site for a geological high-level waste repository. In the current conceptual models of radionuclide transport at Yucca Mountain, part of the transport path to pumping locations would be through an alluvial aquifer. Interactions with minerals in the alluvium are expected to retard the downstream migration of radionuclides, thereby delaying arrival times and reducing ground water concentrations. We evaluate the effectiveness of the alluvial aquifer as a transport barrier using the stochastic Lagrangian framework. A transport model is developed to account for physical and chemical heterogeneities and rate-limited mass transfer between mobile and immobile zones. The latter process is caused by small-scale heterogeneity and is thought to control the macroscopic-scale retardation in some field experiments. A geostatistical model for the spatially varying sorption parameters is developed from a site-specific database created from hydrochemical measurements and a calibrated modeling approach (Turner and Pabalan 1999). Transport of neptunium is considered as an example. The results are sensitive to the rate of transfer between mobile and immobile zones, and to spatial variability in the hydraulic conductivity. Chemical heterogeneity has only a small effect, as does correlation between hydraulic conductivity and the neptunium distribution coefficient. These results illustrate how general sensitivities can be explored with modest effort within the Lagrangian framework. Such studies complement and guide the application of more detailed numerical simulations. 相似文献
18.
根据Chapman理论模型,在各向异性介质(如HTI介质)中,当入射角在0-45。范围内,慢横波会发生较大的衰减和频散,且对流体粘度敏感,而P波和快横波则比较小。对于沿裂隙法向传播的慢横波,其振幅受流体影响很大。因此,在P波响应对流体不敏感的情况下,可利用慢横波来获得裂隙型油气藏的流体信息。本文分析了胜利油田垦71地区三维三分量地震数据,检测出的慢横波振幅和旅行时异常与该区的测井资料十分吻合。分析结果还发现,与含油区相比,含水区会产生更高的横波分裂。在含水区,慢横波振幅会产生明显变化,而在含油区则几乎没有变化。 相似文献
19.
We describe a methodology for identifying complex rift zones on recent or active volcanoes, where structures hidden by recent
deposits and logistical conditions might prevent carrying out detailed fieldwork. La Réunion island was chosen as a test-site.
We used georeferenced topographic maps, aerial photos and digital terrain models to perform a statistical analysis of several
morphometric parameters of pyroclastic cones. This provides a great deal of geometric information that can help in distinguishing
the localisation and orientation of buried magma-feeding fractures, which constitute the surface expression of rift zones.
It also allowed the construction of a complete GIS database of the pyroclastic cones. La Réunion is a perfect example where
past and active volcanic rift zones are mostly expressed by clusters of monogenic centres. The data has been validated in
the field and compared and integrated with the distribution and geometry of dyke swarms. Results show the presence of several
main and secondary rift segments of different ages, locations and orientations, whose origin is discussed considering regional
tectonics, local geomorphology, and volcano deformation. 相似文献
20.
Qiang Dai Dawei Han Miguel A. Rico‐Ramirez Lu Zhuo Nergui Nanding Tanvir Islam 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1704-1716
Radar‐based estimates of rainfall are affected by many sources of uncertainties, which would propagate through the hydrological model when radar rainfall estimates are used as input or initial conditions. An elegant solution to quantify these uncertainties is to model the empirical relationship between radar measurements and rain gauge observations (as the ‘ground reference’). However, most current studies only use a fixed and uniform model to represent the uncertainty of radar rainfall, without consideration of its variation under different synoptic regimes. Wind is such a typical weather factor, as it not only induces error in rain gauge measurements but also causes the raindrops observed by weather radar to drift when they reach the ground. For this reason, as a first attempt, this study introduces the wind field into the uncertainty model and designs the radar rainfall uncertainty model under different wind conditions. We separate the original dataset into three subsamples according to wind speed, which are named as WDI (0–2 m/s), WDII (2–4 m/s) and WDIII (>4 m/s). The multivariate distributed ensemble generator is introduced and established for each subsample. Thirty typical events (10 at each wind range) are selected to explore the behaviours of uncertainty under different wind ranges. In each time step, 500 ensemble members are generated, and the values of 5th to 95th percentile values are used to produce the uncertainty bands. Two basic features of uncertainty bands, namely dispersion and ensemble bias, increase significantly with the growth of wind speed, demonstrating that wind speed plays a considerable role in influencing the behaviour of the uncertainty band. On the basis of these pieces of evidence, we conclude that the radar rainfall uncertainty model established under different wind conditions should be more realistic in representing the radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is only a start in incorporating synoptic regimes into rainfall uncertainty analysis, and a great deal of more effort is still needed to build a realistic and comprehensive uncertainty model for radar rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献