共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Marcel Hürlimann Dieter Rickenmann Vicente Medina Allen Bateman 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):152
Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, based on the concepts of uncertainty and reliability analyses, a method used for assessment of risk due to
debris flow events is proposed. First, procedures for obtaining the configuration of debris-flow fans are presented. Then,
the parameters affecting the configuration of debris-flow fans are identified and their corresponding means and standard deviations
are derived. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the Shih-Pa-Chung Creek in central Taiwan. The expected deposition
thickness at any point in the deposition area is computed and then the contours of risk for the 50-year and 100-year events
are constructed. Regarding the expected deposition thickness, it is found that the closer the distance from the canyon mouth,
the larger the debris-flow thickness becomes. The results also show that the contours of risk are of the shape of an ellipse
similar to the shape of deposition area, and the risk at a point decreases with increasing distance of that point from the
canyon mouth. In addition, when the return period of rainfall event is fixed, the variation in risk decreases as the distance
from the canyon mouth increases. For the assessment of risk due to debris flow events, the proposed method is recommended
as an alternative to the existing methods, because the influence of all the uncertainty of the parameters is considered. 相似文献
3.
泥石流作用下建筑物易损性评价方法分析与评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
建筑物易损度评价作为泥石流易损度评价的重要组成部分,其研究是实现城镇及居民点泥石流风险定量化和风险管理的必要环节。综述近30年来,泥石流作用下建筑物易损度研究的发展过程,并指出以统计分析方法建立的建筑物易损度曲线普适性差且力学机理不明等问题,提出数值计算和模型实验的手段获取建筑物结构易损度的机理模型。由于建筑物易损度研究问题本身的复杂性,统计分析方法仍将作为建筑物易损度研究的重要手段,力学机理明晰的研究方法则将成为今后研究的难点和热点。此外,地震、滚石、雪崩等类似灾种的易损度研究方法和成果可被借鉴到泥石流领域。针对灾害中因结构破坏引发人员伤亡的情况,建议采用时间概率和基于条件概率的事件树方法计算建筑物内人员易损度。最终形成综合结构和人员易损度研究成果的建筑物易损度评价方法。 相似文献
4.
A GIS-based decision support system, which incorporates local topographic and rainfall effects on debris flow vulnerability
is developed. Rainfall at a scale compatible with the digital elevation model resolution is obtained using a neural network
with a wind-induced topographic effect and rainfall derived from satellite rain estimates and an adaptive inverse distance
weight method (WTNN). The technique is tested using data collected during the passage of typhoon Tori-Ji on July 2001 over
central Taiwan. Numerous debris flows triggered by the typhoon were used as control for the study. Our results show that the
WTNN technique outperforms other interpolation techniques including adaptive inversed distance weight (AIDW), simple kriging
(SK), co-kriging, and multiple linear regression using gauge, and topographic parameters. Multiple remotely-sensed, fuzzy-based
debris-flow susceptibility parameters are used to describe the characteristics of watersheds. Non-linear, multi-variant regressions
using the WTNN derived rainfall and topography factors are derived using self-organizing maps (SOM) for the debris flow vulnerability
assessment. An index of vulnerability representing the degrees of hazard is implemented in a GIS-based decision support system
by which a decision maker can assess debris flow vulnerability. 相似文献
5.
Debris flows in the Swiss National Park: the influence of different flow models and varying DEM grid size on modeling results 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In the Swiss National Park, debris flows are a frequent phenomenon and have repeatedly affected highways and hiking structures.
In this study, we first investigated the main characteristics and dimensions of current debris flows by field work and empirical
parameterization schemes. Additionally, we evaluated a topography-based flow-trajectory geographic information system model
(MSF) and a flow-routing model (FLO-2D) in terms of debris flow-affected areas. Three generically different digital elevation
models (DEM) with grid spacing of 25, 4, and 1 m were used in conjunction with the flow models. The evaluation of the DEM
grid spacing shows that for both flow models the 25-m DEM can give an approximate estimation of the potential hazard zone.
Four- and one-meter DEMs mostly confine the simulated debris flow to existing channels and are in accordance with observations
of recent debris-flow events. The study shows that DEM quality and grid resolution are crucial for the resulting delineation
of potentially affected areas and thus for hazard assessment and mapping. 相似文献
6.
Annual risk assessment on high-frequency debris-flow fans 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
7.
Assessing debris-flow hazard in a watershed in Taiwan 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
This paper presents the results of a pilot study for assessing debris-flow hazards using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River is investigated in this pilot study. Factors that are believed to be critical to the occurrence of debris flow are identified and considered in the assessment of debris-flow hazards. Using the spatial analysis feature of GIS, the impact of these factors, expressed in terms of debris-flow hazard (DH) index, is calculated. By taking a simple summation of all DH indexes according to each factor, the overall debris-flow hazard at a particular watershed may be assessed. The applicability of the proposed approach for analyzing the watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River has been confirmed with the field observations in a recent typhoon event. 相似文献
8.
Three debris-flow simulation model software have been applied to the back analysis of a typical alpine debris flow that caused
significant deposition on an urbanized alluvial fan. Parameters used in the models were at first retrieved from the literature
and then adjusted to fit field evidence. In the case where different codes adopted the same parameters, the same input values
were used, and comparable outputs were obtained. Results of the constitutive laws used (Bingham rheology, Voellmy fluid rheology
and a quadratic rheology formulation which adds collisional and turbulent stresses to the Bingham law) indicate that no single
rheological model appears to be valid for all debris flows. The three applied models appear to be capable of reasonable reproduction
of debris-flow events, although with different levels of detail. The study shows how different software can be used to predict
the debris-flow motion for various purposes from a first screening, to predict the runout distance and deposition of the solid
material and to the different behaviour of the mixtures of flows with variation of maximum solid concentration. 相似文献
9.
Chen Chien-Yuan Chen Tien-Chien Yu Fan-Chieh Yu Wen-Hui Tseng Chun-Chieh 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(5):715-724
A rainfall-induced debris flow warning is implemented employing real-time rain gauge data. The pre-warning for the time of landslide triggering derives the threshold or critical rainfall from historical events involving regional rainfall patterns and geological conditions. In cases of debris flow, the time taken cumulative runoff, to yield abundant water for debris triggering, is an important index that needs monitoring. In gathered historical cases, rainfall time history data from the nearest rain gauge stations to debris-flow sites connected to debris flow are used to define relationships between the rainfall intensity and duration. The effects by which the regional rainfall patterns (antecedent rainfall, duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall) and geological settings combine together to trigger a debris-flow are analyzed for real-time monitoring. The analyses focused on 61 historical hazard events with the timing of debris flow initiation and rainfall duration to burst debris-flow characteristics recorded. A combination of averaged rainfall intensity and duration is a more practical index for debris-flow monitoring than critical or threshold rainfall intensity. Because, the outburst timing of debris flows correlates closely to the peak hourly rainfall and the forecasting of peak hourly rainfall reached in a meteorological event could be a valuable index for real-time debris-flow warning. 相似文献
10.
Statistical Analysis of Landslide Events in Central America and their Run-out Distance 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Graziella Devoli Fabio V. De Blasio Anders Elverhøi Kaare Høeg 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2009,27(1):23-42
Statistical analyses of landslide deposits from similar areas provide information on dynamics and rheology, and are the basis
for empirical relationships for the prediction of future events. In Central America landslides represent an important threat
in both volcanic and non-volcanic areas. Data, mainly from 348 landslides in Nicaragua, and 19 in other Central American countries
have been analyzed to describe landslide characteristics and to search for possible correlations and empirical relationships.
The mobility of a landslide, expressed as the ratio between height of fall (H) and run-out distance (L) as a function of the
volume and height of fall; and the relationship between the height of fall and run-out distance were studied for rock falls,
slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. The data show differences in run-out distance and landslide mobility among different
types of landslides and between debris flows in volcanic and non-volcanic areas. The new Central American data add to and
seem consistent with data published from other regions. Studies combining field observations and empirical relationships with
laboratory studies and numerical simulations will help in the development of more reliable empirical equations for the prediction
of landslide run-out, with applications to hazard zonation and design of optimal risk mitigation measures. 相似文献
11.
Debris-flow simulations on Cheekye River, British Columbia 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
Cheekye River fan is the best-studied fan complex in Canada. The desire to develop portions of the fan with urban housing triggered a series of studies to estimate debris-flow risk to future residents. A recent study (Jakob and Friele 2010) provided debris-flow frequency-volume and frequency-discharge data, spanning 20-year to 10,000-year return periods that form the basis for modeling of debris flows on Cheekye River. The numerical computer model FLO-2D was chosen as a modelling tool to predict likely flow paths and to estimate debris-flow intensities for a spectrum of debris-flow return periods. The model is calibrated with the so-called Garbage Dump debris flow that occurred some 900 years ago. Field evidence suggests that the Garbage Dump debris flow has a viscous flow phase that deposited a steep-sided debris plug high in organics in centre fan, which then deflected a low-viscosity afterflow that travelled to Squamish River with slowly diminishing flow depths. The realization of a two-phase flow led to a modelling approach in which the debris-flow hydrograph was split into a high viscosity and low viscosity phase that were modelled in chronologic sequence as two separate and independent modelling runs. A perfect simulation of the Garbage Dump debris flow with modelling is not possible because the exact topography at the time of the event is, to some degree, speculative. However, runout distance, debris deposition and deposit thickness are well known and serve as a good basis for calibration. Predictive analyses using the calibrated model parameters suggest that, under existing conditions, debris flows exceeding a 50-year return period are likely to avulse onto the southern fan sector, thereby damaging existing development and infrastructure. Debris flows of several thousand years return period would inundate large portions of the fan, sever Highway 99, CN Rail, and the Squamish Valley road and would impact existing housing development on the fan. These observations suggest a need for debris-flow mitigation for existing and future development alike. 相似文献
12.
On July 20, 2003, following a short duration of heavy rainfall, a debris-flow disaster occurred in the Minamata–Hougawachi area, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. This disaster was triggered by a landslide. In order to assess the landslide and debris-flow hazard potential of this mountainous region, the study of historic landslides is critical. The objective of the study is to couple 3D slope-stability analysis models and 2D numerical simulation of debris flow within a geographical information systems in order to identity the potential landslide-hazard area. Based on field observations, the failure mechanism of the past landslide is analyzed and the mechanical parameters for 3D slope-stability analysis are calculated from the historic landslide. Then, to locate potential new landslides, the studied area is divided into slope units. Based on 3D slope-stability analysis models and on Monte Carlo simulation, the spots of potential landslides are identified. Finally, we propose a depth-averaged 2D numerical model, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be a uniform continuous, incompressible, unsteady Newtonian fluid. The method accurately models the historic debris flow. According to the 2D numerical simulation, the results of the debris-flow model, including the potentially inundated areas, are analyzed, and potentially affected houses, river and road are mapped. 相似文献
13.
以天水地区渭河南岸大砂沟泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外地质调查以及历史资料的统计,初步了解该泥石流的形成条件、松散物源的补给条件、活动历史;详细研究了该泥石流的运动特征,并提出了相应的治理措施。结果表明:该泥石流沟上游三面不稳定斜坡体上的堆积物和大砂沟沟道内的松散堆积物为该泥石流的主要物源;通过统计分析,在极端降雨天气条件下计算得到洪峰流量为355. 26 m3/s。该泥石流沟仍存在暴发大规模泥石流的可能性,一旦泥石流发生,将对下游甘谷县城居民的生命财产安全造成严重的威胁。研究成果可为天水地区泥石流的防灾减灾提供科学依据。 相似文献
14.
传统的观点认为山区泥石流灾害的形成主要取决于降水,其产汇流运动的过程是可采用水文过程模拟的物理过程。基于目前泥石流灾害集中分布于地震带和干旱河谷的现象以及现有的泥石流形成与防治研究基础,我们发现在人类居住与活动的山区,其坡度和降水极易满足泥石流灾害的形成条件,因此物源控制着泥石流灾害的孕育、形成和演化,主宰了灾害性泥石流的过程。物源的动态变化改变了泥石流发育的难易程度,主导了泥石流的规模和频率变化。泥石流物源在内外动力作用下经历松散化或密实化两个不同的演化过程,不同密度的土体通过剪缩或剪胀形成不同规模、频率与性质的泥石流。此外物源也控制了泥石流的规模放大过程。实践证明基于物源控制理论的区域预测、分级多指标预警和工程调控技术是科学有效的。因此,灾害性泥石流是一个地质作用主导的地质过程,该过程的特征描述需要更多地考虑基于地质环境条件的经验模型,且高效能的灾害预测预警与调控需要基于物源控制的机理和过程而进行。 相似文献
15.
本构模型是描述泥石流流变特性的关键,也是决定其动力过程数值模拟准确性的核心问题之一。泥石流流体属多相混合物,现有的研究已证实其存在剪切增稠或剪切变稀的现象,传统基于Bingham及Cross线性本构关系的数值模型难以准确描述泥石流流变特性。文中探讨了Bingham模型在低剪应变率下的数值发散问题,在光滑粒子流体动力学（SPH）方法框架上建立了整合Herschel-Bulkley-Papanastasiou(HBP）本构关系的稀性泥石流动力过程三维数值模型。相比传统基于浅水波假设的二维数值模型,所述方法从三维尺度建立SPH形式下的泥石流浆体纳维?斯托克斯方程并进行数值求解,可获取泥石流速度场时空分布及堆积形态,同时采用HBP本构关系描述泥石流流变特性,能在确保数值收敛的前提下反映泥石流流体在塑性屈服过渡段及大变形状态下应力?应变的非线性变化。为验证提出方法的合理性,结合小型模型槽实验观测进行了对比,结果表明数值模拟与实测结果基本吻合。 相似文献
16.
Debris flows belong to sudden disasters which are difficult to forecast. Thus, a detailed and coherent hazard assessment seems a necessary step to prevent or relieve such disasters and mitigate the risk effectively. Previous researchers have proposed several methods, such as regression analysis, fuzzy mathematics, and artificial neural networks for debris-flow hazard assessment. However, these methods need further improvements to eliminate the high relativity existing in their results. The current study reported a similarity-based debris-flow hazard assessment model to determine hazard levels of debris flow in regions, with steps like determining hazard-level-type regions, selecting environmental factors and calculating the similarities between the assessment-pending regions and assessed hazard-level-type ones. This methodology was then employed to assess the regional debris hazard of Yunnan Province in China as a case study and was verified via comparison with field surveys. As the results indicate, the proposed similarity-based debris-flow risk assessment model is simple and efficient and can improve the comparability and reliability of the assessment to some degree. 相似文献
17.
加权距离判别法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
将加权距离判别法引用到泥石流危险度分类中,建立了泥石流危险度分类模型。该模型选用了流域面积、主沟长度、流域最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、人口密度、泥沙补给长度比、植被覆盖率、一次泥石流（可能）最大冲出量和泥石流发生频率10项指标为建模参数,运用熵值法对这10个指标进行赋权,用已经分类的泥石流沟作为训练样本进行学习,建立了相应的判别准则。将待判泥石流沟样本代入判别准则进行判别分类,分类结果与传统分类结果100%吻合,验证了该模型的分类性能良好。该方法可以在实际工程中进行推广。 相似文献
18.
基于最小熵理论和未确知测度理论的泥石流敏感性分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为了合理确定各影响因子权重,客观分析泥石流敏感性,基于最小熵分析原理和未确知测度理论建立泥石流敏感性分析模型。选取金沙江流域26条典型泥石流沟,确定9个主要影响因子,利用最小熵分析原理分析各因子对泥石流系统贡献率及权重,然后基于未确知测度理论计算各泥石流沟的多指标综合评价尺度向量,最后根据置信度识别准则确定各泥石流沟敏感度水平。将分析结果与已有成果进行对比可知,仅有7条泥石流沟敏感性结果有所差异。将评价结果与现场实际调查情况对比分析可知,22条泥石流沟的敏感度水平与泥石流实际发育情况相符,仅有4条沟评价结果偏于“保守”,因此,利用所提出的模型进行泥石流敏感度分析是十分有效的,并可对泥石流的防治提供合理的建议,可以在实际工程中推广应用。 相似文献
19.
物源条件对震后泥石流发展影响的初步分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
强震过后一定时期内,泥石流的活跃性增强,即数量增多、规模增大、频率增加。而随着松散物质储量的减少,泥石流的活跃性会随之衰减。为了具体考察物源条件对震后泥石流活动的影响,使用震后泥石流逐年平均输沙量作为刻画泥石流活跃性的指标,在云南蒋家沟和西藏古乡沟泥石流数据的基础上,定量地分析了震后泥石流活跃性的变化过程。分析表明存在降雨控制型和物源控制型两种泥石流流域。前者的泥石流在震后很长一段时间内都不衰减,其发生主要取决于降雨条件。后者最大规模的泥石流发生于地震过后的短时间内,尔后泥石流活动随时间显著减弱。泥石流规模和频率的关系与暴雨不一致。当物源控制型流域的无量纲化活跃性指标值降为0.12左右时,可以认为泥石流进入了稳定或者衰弱期,不会再有大规模的泥石流事件发生。数据拟合结果表明,整个泥石流活跃性的衰减过程可以用幂函数来描述。其衰减指数与剩余物质储量和总物质储量之比存在密切的关系。这为定量预测震后泥石流发展趋势提供了一个初步的模型。 相似文献
20.
Numerical simulations of flow motion and deposition characteristics of granular debris flows 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows are of concern regarding land use planning and management. A simple
model for the prediction of mentioned characteristics has been developed, incorporating a friction–collision rheological model.
It demonstrated to be able to satisfactorily simulate the two-dimensional behavior of laboratory results and the one-dimensional
behavior of two real debris-flow events. The numerical results show that the topography of the channel bed, the yield stress
level of the debris flows, and the inflow pattern have significant influence on the simulated flow motion and deposition characteristics
of debris flows. In addition, the predicted run-out distance has been compared with analytical solutions and field observations.
The model could be employed for the preliminary evaluation of one-dimensional run-out distance of granular debris flows provided
that the volume of the debris involved in the initial mobilization is assumed. 相似文献