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1.
Statistics of extremes in climate change 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Richard W. Katz 《Climatic change》2010,100(1):71-76
This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics of extremes in climate change research. So far,
the statistical theory of extreme values has been primarily applied to climate under the assumption of stationarity. How this
theory can be applied in the context of climate change, including implications for the analysis of the economic impacts of
extremes, is described. Future research challenges include the statistical modeling of complex extreme events, such as heat
waves, and taking into account spatial dependence in the statistical modeling of extremes for fields of climate observations
or of numerical model output. Addressing these challenges will require increased collaboration between climate scientists
and statisticians. 相似文献
2.
Feng Jieling Li Ning Zhang Zhengtao Chen Xi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):297-305
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - IPCC reports that a changing climate can affect the frequency and the intensity of extreme events. However, the extremes appear in the tail of the probability... 相似文献
3.
Jouni Räisänen 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(2-3):309-323
The impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on high and low extremes of monthly-to-annual precipitation is studied using 20 model experiments participating in the second phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP2). In marked contrast with previous research on daily precipitation extremes, the simulated changes in extremes on these longer time scales are well correlated with the changes in the long-term mean precipitation: wet extremes become more severe especially where the mean precipitation increases, and dry extremes where the mean precipitation decreases. Changes in relative variability play a smaller but discernible role. In an ensemble-mean sense, the variability increases slightly in most areas, so that the contrast between the high and low precipitation extremes grows larger with increasing CO2. The changes in the frequency of extremes (fraction of cases with precipitation above a high or below a low predefined threshold) are much larger than the changes in their magnitude. Most of the ensemble-averaged changes in the frequency of extremes can be reconstructed by using the changes in time mean precipitation alone, provided that the variation in time mean precipitation change between different models is taken into account. The nonlinear relationship between the mean precipitation and the frequency of extremes complicates the interpretation of the frequency changes, especially when averaging frequencies over different models. 相似文献
4.
K. Kürbis M. Mudelsee G. Tetzlaff R. Brázdil 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):187-195
For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague–Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s. 相似文献
5.
Summary For assessing risk of highly unusual events extreme value statistics needs to be applied, which plays an important role in
engineering practices for water resources design and management. In hydrology, the typical application of extreme value theory
concerns floods in river basins or landslides. The present paper is, instead, focused on the analysis of extreme wet and dry
periods in a sample area (Sicily). First, we have studied monthly precipitation extremes both using the annual maximum and
partial duration methods, and return times have been estimated by standard statistical techniques. Next, we studied the extremes
of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which has been proposed as an indicator for monitoring wet and dry conditions.
We found considerable differences both in the return periods and in the time location of the extremes. From our study it appears
that the SPI better describes wet and dry periods than the precipitation does. Maps of return times for extreme conditions
in Sicily are also presented, which cluster the territory into areas of different extreme return periods. Finally, the occurrence
of extremes in Sicily has been related to large-scale atmospheric circulation. 相似文献
6.
This paper offers insights for assessing organizational resilience to the effects of climate change, specifically to climate and weather extremes. The assessment of organizational resilience to climate and weather extremes brings about several challenges due to (1) uncertainties about future climate change outcomes across temporal and spatial scales and (2) a lack of insight into what lead to organizational resilience, or which variables should be measured in a given study. We suggest methodological pathways for organizational managers to identify properties of future climate and weather extremes and to include them in resilience assessments. We also suggest approaches to identify factors that promote organizational resilience to selected climate and weather extremes. Findings are intended to help managers to understand how organizational resilience to climate and weather extremes can be enhanced. 相似文献
7.
Based on the daily OISST V2 with 0.25o horizontal resolutions, we study the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) extremes in the China Seas for different segments of the period 1982-2013. The two segments include the warming acceleration period from 1982 to 1997 and hiatus period from 1998 to 2013 when the global surface mean temperature (GSMT) was not significantly warming as expected during the past decades, or even cooling in some areas. First, we construct the regional average time series over the entire China Seas (15o–45oN, 105o–130oE) for these SST extremes. During the hiatus period, the regionally averaged 10th, 1th and 0.1th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased significantly by 0.40°C, 0.56°C and 0.58°C per decade, respectively. The regionally averaged 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased slightly or insignificantly. Our work confirmed that the regional hiatus was primarily reflected by wintertime cold extremes. Spatially, the trends of cold extremes in different intensity were non-uniformly distributed. Cold extremes in the near-shore areas are much more sensitivity to the global warming hiatus. Hot extremes trends exhibited non-significant tendency in the China Seas during the hiatus period. In word, the variations of the SST extremes in the two periods were non-uniform spatially and asymmetric seasonally. It is unexpected that the hot and cold extremes of each year in 1998–2013 were still higher than those extremes in 1982–1997. It is obvious that relative to the warming acceleration period, hot extremes are far more likely to occur in the recent hiatus as a result of a 0.3°C warmer shift in the mean temperature distribution. Moreover, hot extremes in the China Seas will be sustained or amplified with the end of warming hiatus and the continuous anthropogenic warming. 相似文献
8.
Surface temperatures are generally higher in cities than in rural surroundings. This phenomenon, known as Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), increases the risk of heat-related human illnesses and mortality. Past global studies analysed this phenomenon aggregated at city scale or over seasonal and annual time periods, while human impacts strongly depend on shorter term heat stress experienced locally. Here we develop a global long-term high-resolution dataset of daytime SUHI, offering an insight into the space–time variability of the urban–rural temperature differences which is unprecedented at global scale. Our results show that across urban areas worldwide over the period 2003–2020, 3-day SUHI extremes are on average more than twice as high as the warm-season median SUHI, with local exceedances up to 10 K. Over this period, SUHI extremes have increased more rapidly than warm-season medians, and averaged worldwide are now 1.04 K or 31% higher compared to 2003. This can be linked with increasing urbanisation, more frequent heatwaves, and greening of the earth, processes that are all expected to continue in the coming decades. Within many cities there are hotspots where extreme SUHI intensity is 10–15 K higher compared to relatively cooler city parts. Given the limited human adaptability to heat stress, our results advocate for mitigation strategies targeted at reducing SUHI extremes in the most vulnerable and exposed city neighbourhoods. 相似文献
9.
IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告提出了基于“产生影响的气候因子”（CID）的气候变化评估框架,以一组影响社会或生态系统的气候状态为基础进行气候变化评估。这个CID评估框架有7个类型,33个气候因子,每个因子可以针对被影响对象采用不同的评估指标。CID变化具有时间尺度差异性与不可逆性、突变性与临界点、凸现时间、复合性以及受影响主体依赖性等重要特征。基于CID的气候变化评估框架有助于更客观、中立、全面地评估气候变化给不同部门带来的影响和风险。 相似文献
10.
János Mika 《Climatic change》2013,121(1):15-26
The terms “weather extremes” and “climate extremes” are widely used in meteorology, often in relation to climate change. This paper reviews the empirical investigations into parallel changes in extreme events and climate change published in recent years and looks at their relevance for the global energy system. Empirical investigation into the correlation of extremes with global warming covers five groups: changes in temperature, precipitation, wind (storm) extremes, tropical and extra-tropical circulation phenomena. For temperature extremes, extensive analyses demonstrate that extreme hot days and nights will likely become more frequent, and extreme cold days and nights less frequent. Intense precipitation events will likely become more frequent in most continental regions. Scientific confidence in the trends of the frequency, duration, and intensity of tropical cyclones, is still low. A poleward shift is observed for extratropical cyclones, whereas no convincing tendencies of many smaller-scale phenomena, for example, tornados, or hail, can yet be detected. All these extremes have serious implications for the energy sector. 相似文献
11.
Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Based on the daily observational precipitation data at 147 stations in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2005 and projected daily data of 79 grid cells from the ECHAM5/ MPI-OM model in the 20th and 21st century, time series of precipitation extremes which contain AM (Annual Maximum) and MI (Munger Index) are constructed. The distribution feature of precipitation extremes is analyzed based on the two index series. Three principal results were obtained, as stated in the sequel. (i) In the past half century, the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation and drought events was higher in the mid-lower Yangtze than in the upper Yangtze reaches. Although the ECHAM5 model still can’t capture the precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin satisfactorily, spatial pattern of the observed and the simulated precipitation extremes are much similar to each other. (ii) For quantifying the characteristics of extremely high and extremely low precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, four probability distributions are used, namely: General Extreme Value (GEV), General Pareto (GPA), General Logistic (GLO), and Wakeby (WAK). It was found that WAK can adequately describe the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observational and projected data. (iii) Return period of precipitation extremes show spatially different changes under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The 50-year heavy precipitation and drought events from simulated data during 1951–2000 will become more frequent, with return period below 25 years, for the most mid-lower Yangtze region in 2001–2050. The changing character of return periods of precipitation extremes should be taken into account for the hydrological design and future water resources management. 相似文献
12.
G. C. Efthimiou D. Hertwig S. Andronopoulos J. G. Bartzis O. Coceal 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(2):179-201
Wind fields in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) are highly three-dimensional and characterized by strong spatial and temporal variability. For various applications such as wind-comfort assessments and structural design, an understanding of potentially hazardous wind extremes is important. Statistical models are designed to facilitate conclusions about the occurrence probability of wind speeds based on the knowledge of low-order flow statistics. Being particularly interested in the upper tail regions we show that the statistical behaviour of near-surface wind speeds is adequately represented by the Beta distribution. By using the properties of the Beta probability density function in combination with a model for estimating extreme values based on readily available turbulence statistics, it is demonstrated that this novel modelling approach reliably predicts the upper margins of encountered wind speeds. The model’s basic parameter is derived from three substantially different calibrating datasets of flow in the ASL originating from boundary-layer wind-tunnel measurements and direct numerical simulation. Evaluating the model based on independent field observations of near-surface wind speeds shows a high level of agreement between the statistically modelled horizontal wind speeds and measurements. The results show that, based on knowledge of only a few simple flow statistics (mean wind speed, wind-speed fluctuations and integral time scales), the occurrence probability of velocity magnitudes at arbitrary flow locations in the ASL can be estimated with a high degree of confidence. 相似文献
13.
Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics. 相似文献
14.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):173-193
Abstract New observations in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada show that temperature and dissolved oxygen have a pronounced seasonal cycle, with a spatially varying phase. Phase lags in oscillating systems arise due to internal time scales which can be interpreted in fluid systems as residence times. Exploiting phase we construct a quantitative and internally consistent circulation scheme for this body of water after dividing it into four regions: the Fraser River plume, the surface waters down to 50 m, the intermediate waters down to 200 m, and the deep water. In this scheme the intermediate water, the largest region by volume, is continually renewed, and its characteristics change in response to continuous changes in the characteristics of source waters. The dependence of the estuarine circulation on variations in fresh inflow is weak. The deep water is volumetrically less important, but seasonal changes in the density of oceanic source waters can produce a variation in the overall circulation by driving an additional inflow which leads to both deep renewal and increased upwelling. In turn, this increased upwelling results in lower surface temperatures than might otherwise be expected. Intermediate water residence times are about 160 days. Deep water is renewed once per year in summer and is affected only by vertical diffusion during the rest of the year. Surface water residence times for the entire Strait are a few months at most, but the Fraser River plume has a freshwater residence time of approximately 1 day. In addition, we find that the residence time of oceanic source waters in the Strait is 1.7 years due to a substantial recirculation in Haro Strait. Other consequences of this scheme are consistent with independent estimates of horizontal transports, air‐sea heat fluxes, subsurface oxygen (O2) utilization, and primary production. Finally, analysis of the spatial phase variations suggests that the intermediate inflow enters the Strait as a boundary current along the slopes of the Fraser delta. 相似文献
15.
Climate Extremes: Selected Review and Future Research Directions 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
16.
The Changing Incidence of Extremes in Worldwide and Central England Temperatures to the End of the Twentieth Century 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Annual and seasonal gridded ocean surface temperature anomalies show an increase in warm extremes and a decrease in cold extremes since the late 19th century attributable entirely to the overall warming trend. Over land, however, a reduction in the total incidence of extremes may reflect improved instrumental exposures. Our estimates of extremes are made by deriving percentiles from fits of anomalies on 5° latitude ×5° longitude resolution to modified 2-parameter gamma distributions. A non-parametric method is used to check the validity of the results. Fields of percentiles created using this technique can be used to map the distribution of unusual temperature anomalies across the globe on any time scale from a month to about a decade, from 1870 onwards. We apply a similar technique to assess changes in the incidence of extreme daily Central England temperature anomalies. The incidence of these extremes, relative to individual monthly average temperatures, has declined. 相似文献
17.
Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Kevin E. Trenberth 《Climatic change》2012,115(2):283-290
The atmospheric and ocean environment has changed from human activities in ways that affect storms and extreme climate events. The main way climate change is perceived is through changes in extremes because those are outside the bounds of previous weather. The average anthropogenic climate change effect is not negligible, but nor is it large, although a small shift in the mean can lead to very large percentage changes in extremes. Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales. To the extent that interactions are linear, even places that feature below normal temperatures are still warmer than they otherwise would be. It is when natural variability and climate change develop in the same direction that records get broken. For instance, the rapid transition from El Ni?o prior to May 2010 to La Ni?a by July 2010 along with global warming contributed to the record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and in close proximity to places where record flooding subsequently occurred. A commentary is provided on recent climate extremes. The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be. 相似文献
18.
There is abundant historical evidence that climatic extremes in the past have led to significant and sometimes severe societal
impacts. The severity of these impacts depends on the intensity and duration of the climatic event, social organization, and
the prevailing socioeconomic conditions at the time of the climatic extreme. In this issue of Climatic Change we present the results from 12 studies, which document climatic extremes on different time scales and provide interesting
evidence for direct and indirect social impacts of climatic changes in the Americas during the pre-Hispanic, colonial, and
modern eras. 相似文献
19.
A Bayesian statistical model for deriving the predictive distribution of hydroclimatic variables 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent publications have provided evidence that hydrological processes exhibit a scaling behaviour, also known as the Hurst phenomenon. An appropriate way to model this behaviour is to use the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process. The Hurst-Kolmogorov process entails high autocorrelations even for large lags, as well as high variability even at climatic scales. A problem that, thus, arises is how to incorporate the observed past hydroclimatic data in deriving the predictive distribution of hydroclimatic processes at climatic time scales. Here with the use of Bayesian techniques we create a framework to solve the aforementioned problem. We assume that there is no prior information for the parameters of the process and use a non-informative prior distribution. We apply this method with real-world data to derive the posterior distribution of the parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of various 30-year moving average climatic variables. The marginal distributions we examine are the normal and the truncated normal (for nonnegative variables). We also compare the results with two alternative models, one that assumes independence in time and one with Markovian dependence, and the results are dramatically different. The conclusion is that this framework is appropriate for the prediction of future hydroclimatic variables conditional on the observations. 相似文献
20.
Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin for 1960-2005, and the projected daily data of 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th century, time series of precipitation extremes which contain annual maximum (AM) and Munger index (MI) were constructed. The distribution feature of precipitation extremes was analyzed based on the two index series. Research results show that (1) the intensity and probability of extreme heavy precipitation are higher in the middle Mintuo River sub-catchment, the Dongting Lake area, the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River, and the southeastern Poyang Lake sub-catchment; whereas, the intensity and probability of drought events are higher in the mid-lower Jinsha River sub-catchment and the Jialing River sub-catchment; (2) compared with observational data, the averaged value of AM is higher but the deviation coefficient is lower in projected data, and the center of precipitation extremes moves northwards; (3) in spite of certain differences in the spatial distributions of observed and projected precipitation extremes, by applying General Extreme Value (GEV) and Wakeby (WAK) models with the method of L-Moment Estimator (LME) to the precipitation extremes, it is proved that WAK can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observed and projected data quite well. The WAK could be an important function for estimating the precipitation extreme events in the Yangtze River basin under future climatic scenarios. 相似文献