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1.
For small tropical islands with limited freshwater resources, understanding how island hydrology is influenced by regional climate is important, considering projected hydroclimate and sea level changes as well as growing populations dependent on limited groundwater resources. However, the relationship between climate variability and hydrologic variability for many tropical islands remains uncertain due to local hydroclimatic data scarcity. Here, we present a case study from Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2°N, 157°W), utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index to investigate variability in island surface water area, an important link between climate variability and groundwater storage. Kiritimati surface water area varies seasonally, following wet and dry seasons, and interannually, due to hydroclimate variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The NIÑO3.4 sea surface temperature index, satellite‐derived precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, and local sea level all had significant positive correlations with surface water area. Lagged correlations show sea level changes and precipitation influence surface water area up to 6 months later. Differences in the timing of surface water area changes and variable climate‐surface water area correlations in island subregions indicate that surface hydrology on Kiritimati is not uniform in response to climate variations. Rather, the magnitude of the ocean–atmosphere anomalies and island–ocean connectivity determine the extent to which sea level and precipitation control surface water area. The very strong 2015–2016 El Niño event led to the largest surface water area measured in the 18‐year data set. Surface water area decreased to pre‐event values in a similarly rapid manner (<6 months) after both the very strong 2015–2016 event and the 2009–2010 moderate El Niño event. Future changes in the frequency and amplitude of interannual hydroclimate variability as well as seasonal duration will thus alter surface water coverage on Kiritimati, with implications for freshwater resources, flooding, and drought. 相似文献
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Kara L. Webster Jason A. Leach Paul W. Hazlett Robert L. Fleming Erik J. S. Emilson Daniel Houle Kara H. Y. Chan Fariborz Norouzian Amanda S. Cole Jason M. O'Brien Karen E. Smokorowski Stephanie A. Nelson Shelagh D. Yanni 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14109
The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) study is a federal, interdepartmental study established in 1979 to investigate the effects of acid rain on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The 10.5 km2 watershed, located in the Eastern Temperate Mixed Forest on the Canadian Shield, has been the site of multidisciplinary studies on biogeochemical and ecological processes conducted across plot to catchment scales. The whole-ecosystem investigative approach was adopted from the outset and has allowed research to evolve from its original (and continuing) acidification focus to include investigations on the effects of climate change, forest harvesting and other forest ecosystem perturbations. The extensive scientific and support infrastructure allows for collection of a comprehensive data record essential for understanding long-term environmental trends. Data include atmospheric deposition, meteorology, stream hydrology and chemistry, soil, pore and ground water properties, understory and overstory vegetation, lake and outflow physical and chemical properties, and aquatic macroinvertebrate and fish community composition and abundance. These data have contributed to over 400 published research papers and graduate theses. The watershed has also figured prominently in many continent-wide comparisons advancing fundamental watershed theory. The knowledge gained at TLW has influenced pollutant emission and natural resource management policies provincially, nationally and internationally. 相似文献
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Joseph M. Delesantro Jonathan M. Duncan Diego Riveros-Iregui Joanna R. Blaszczak Emily S. Bernhardt Dean L. Urban Lawrence E. Band 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14339
Current land-use classifications used to assess urbanization effects on stream water quality date back to the 1980s when limited information was available to characterize watershed attributes that mediate non-point source pollution. With high resolution remote sensing and widely used GIS tools, there has been a vast increase in the availability and precision of geospatial data of built environments. In this study, we leverage geospatial data to expand the characterization of developed landscapes and create a typology that allows us to better understand the impact of complex developed landscapes across the rural to urban gradient. We assess the ability of the developed landscape typology to reveal patterns in stream water chemistry previously undetected by traditional land-cover based classification. We examine the distribution of land-cover, infrastructure, topography and geology across 3876 National Hydrography Dataset Plus catchments in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, USA. From this dataset, we generate metrics to evaluate the abundance, density and position of landscape features relative to streams, catchment outlets and topographic wetness metrics. While impervious surfaces are a key distinguishing feature of the urban landscape, sanitary infrastructure, population density and geology are better predictors of baseflow stream water chemistry. Unsupervised clustering was used to generate a distinct developed landscape typology based on the expanded, high-resolution landscape feature information. Using stream chemistry data from 37 developed headwater catchments, we compared the baseflow water chemistry grouped by traditional land-cover based classes of urbanization (rural, low, medium and high density) to our composition and structure-based classification (a nine-class typology). The typology based on 22 metrics of developed landscape composition and structure explained over 50% of the variation in NO3−-N, TDN, DOC, Cl−, and Br− concentration, while the ISC-based classification only significantly explained 23% of the variation in TDN. These results demonstrate the importance of infrastructure, population and geology in defining developed landscapes and improving discrete classes for water management. 相似文献
4.
Jeffery Eveland Michael N. Gooseff Derrick J. Lampkin J. E. Barrett Cristina Takacs‐Vesbach 《水文研究》2013,27(20):2864-2875
Snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys is a potential source of moisture for subnivian soils in a cold desert ecosystem. In a water‐limited environment, enhanced soil moisture is expected to provide more favourable conditions for subnivian soil communities. In addition, snow cover insulates the underlying soil from air temperature extremes. Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal snow accumulation and ablation is necessary to understand these dynamics. Repeat high‐resolution imagery acquired for the 2009–2010 austral summer was used to map the seasonal distribution of snow across Taylor and Wright valleys, Southern Victorialand, Antarctica. An edge detection algorithm was used to perform an object‐based classification of snow‐covered area. Coupled with topographic parameters obtained from a 30‐m digital elevation model, unique distribution patterns were characterized for five regions within the neighbouring valleys. Time lapses of snow distribution in each region provide insight into spatially variable aerial ablation rates (change in area of landscape covered by snow) across the region. A strong coastal to interior gradient of decreasing snow‐covered area was evident for both Taylor and Wright valleys. The surrounding regions of Lake Fryxell, Lake Hoare, Lake Bonney, Lake Brownworth, and Lake Vanda exhibited losses of snow‐covered area of 9.61 km2 (?93%), 1.63 km2 (?72%), 1.07 km2 (?97%), 2.60 km2 (?82%), and 0.25 km2 (?96%), respectively, as measured from peak accumulation in October to mid‐January. Differences in aerial ablation rates within and across local regions suggest that both topographic variation and regional microclimates influence the ablation of seasonal snow cover. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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大气作用下膨胀土地基的水分迁移与胀缩变形分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
运用土体渗流和蒸发理论,建立了大气-非饱和土相互作用模型;以现场观测的气象数据作为边界条件,进行了地基土中水分迁移的数值模拟,得到了大气作用下地基土体含水量的动态分布规律。计算结果表明,地基土中含水量变化幅度随深度增加而递减,3.5 m深度以下土体的体积含水量基本不变,从而确定了南宁地区膨胀土地基的大气影响层深度为3.5 m。在此基础上,结合已有膨胀土胀缩性指标的干湿循环效应研究成果,提出了一种同时考虑干湿循环效应和1.0 m深处含水量变化的膨胀土地基胀缩变形计算方法,通过算例将该法与传统方法进行比较,结果显示该法更加符合工程实际。 相似文献
7.
In this study, a three‐dimensional (3D) non‐hydrostatic circulation model was applied to study the thermal structure, its evolution and water circulation of Yachiyo Lake in Hiroshima, Japan. The simulations were conducted for 1 month during July 2006. The meteorological forcing variables such as wind stress, surface atmospheric pressure and heat flux transfer through the lake surface were provided by an atmospheric mesoscale model run. The vertical mixing process of the lake was calculated using the Mellor‐Yamada turbulence model. The 1‐month numerical simulation revealed the wind‐induced currents of the lake, two gyres in the mid‐layer, and depth‐averaged monthly mean currents. Further numerical experiments studying the mechanism of the two gyres in the lake showed the important role of topography in gyre formation. The thermal structure of the lake and its evolution both in space and in time as predicted by the model showed very good agreement with the observed values and characteristics of Yachiyo Lake. The internal gravity waves, which are crucial for mixing in the stratified lake, are depicted by the vertical fluctuation of isotherms. Using the non‐dimensional gradient Richardson number, Yachiyo Lake was determined to be stable under strong stratification during the study period, and therefore very sensitive to wind stress. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
城市湖泊作为城市与自然之间进行水气交换的蓝色空间,具有供水、防洪、休闲、气候调节以及改善城市生态环境等诸多生态服务功能。中国地域辽阔、城市众多,不同区域的城市湖泊受自然地理环境和社会经济发展等因素的影响而具有显著的空间差异特征。目前已有研究对我国省会城市和个别大型城市的湖泊空间分布及变化特征等开展研究,但全国范围内各行政等级单元内城市湖泊分布的空间格局及其影响因素仍缺乏综合分析。本研究基于中国城市湖泊数据集,从城市分布的地域单元、行政等级、城市规模3个方面对城市湖泊分布特征进行统计分析和比较,并结合自然和人类活动要素,初步探讨影响城市湖泊分布规模和丰度的主控因子。结果表明,2020年全国共有约11万个面积大于0.001km2城市湖泊(不包括太湖、滇池等大型湖泊),总面积约2112 km2,约占全国城市(遥感城市不透水层区域)面积的1.1%。城市湖泊的分布具有显著的集聚和分异特征,数量超过70%的城市湖泊分布在约20%的县(区)级行政单元,约21%的县(区)级行政单元基本没有(<10 m遥感影像分辨率下10个像元)城市湖泊分布。城市湖泊数... 相似文献
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Long-term data are crucial for understanding ecological responses to climate and land use change; they are also vital evidence for informing management. As a migratory fish, Atlantic salmon are sentinels of both global and local environmental change. This paper reviews the main insights from six decades of research in an upland Scottish stream (Girnock Burn) inhabited by a spring Atlantic salmon population dominated by multi-sea-winter fish. Research began in the 1960s providing a census of returning adults, juvenile emigrants and in-stream production of Atlantic salmon. Early research pioneered new monitoring techniques providing new insights into salmon ecology and population dynamics. These studies underlined the need for interdisciplinary approaches for understanding salmon interactions with physical, chemical and biological components of in-stream habitats at different life-stages. This highlighted variations in catchment-scale hydroclimate, hydrology, geomorphology and hydrochemistry as essential to understanding freshwater habitats in the wider landscape context. Evolution of research has resulted in a remarkable catalogue of novel findings underlining the value of long-term data that increases with time as modelling tools advance to leverage more insights from “big data”. Data are available on fish numbers, sizes and ages across multiple life stages, extending over many decades and covering a wide range of stock levels. Combined with an unusually detailed characterization of the environment, these data have enabled a unique process-based understanding of the controls and bottlenecks on salmon population dynamics across the entire lifecycle and the consequences of declining marine survival and ova deposition. Such powerful datasets, methodological enhancements and the resulting process understanding have informed and supported the development of fish population assessment tools which have been applied to aid management of threatened salmon stocks at large-catchment, regional and national scales. Many pioneering monitoring and modelling approaches developed have been applied internationally. This history shows the importance of integrating discovery science with monitoring for informing policy development and assessing efficacy of management options. It also demonstrates the need to continue to resource long-term sites, which act as a focus for inter-disciplinary research and innovation, and where the overall value of the research greatly exceeds the costs of individual component parts. 相似文献
10.
鄱阳湖夏季水热通量特征及环境要素影响分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
气候变化加速了全球水文循环过程,然而,气候变化如何影响水体蒸发及其水热通量交换仍然不清楚.基于涡度相关系统观测鄱阳湖水体水热通量过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水热通量的变化规律及其主要影响因子.研究表明,潜热通量日变化波动剧烈,大部分为正值,变化范围在-50~580 W/m2之间.而感热通量数值较小,变化范围在-50~50 W/m2之间.8月份潜热通量和感热通量均呈波动下降趋势,均值分别为167.4和15.9 W/m2.8月份日平均潜热通量和感热通量之和大于净辐射,这是由于这一时段储存在水体中的热量释放并补充潜热通量和感热通量.小时尺度上潜热通量日变化在相位上与净辐射无显著相关性,而与风速显著相关.在日尺度变化趋势上,8月份日平均潜热通量仍主要受到风速和水温的影响,感热通量则主要受到风速和饱和水汽压差的影响. 相似文献
11.
作为我国最大的内陆咸水湖,青海湖是青藏高原东北部重要水汽源,在维持区域生态环境及半干旱生态系统功能方面发挥着重要作用.近年来,青海湖水位迅速上升,但是湖泊扩张对周边人居设施与草地的影响尚未得到广泛关注和报道.基于1995-2019年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、Hydroweb多源测高同化水位数据、SRTM-1 DEM数据等,本研究以青海湖近年来增长速率情景开展湖泊快速扩张对周边人居设施(道路、居民点)与草地影响和潜在威胁的定量研究.结果表明:1995-2004年期间青海湖处于萎缩态势,2004年水位和面积出现最小值,之后,青海湖进入稳定扩张期.2004-2019年期间,青海湖水位累计上涨3.27 m,年均增长率约为0.22 m/a;相应地,青海湖水量增长了14.25 km3,年均增长率为0.95 km3/a.湖泊扩张模拟结果显示,若青海湖水量以当前速率增长,水位将在2070年前后达到3207 m(相对2019年约10 m的水位涨幅),届时将会淹没178个居民点、长度约为1286.91 km的道路以及2042.22 km2的植被,其中预测的高风险区域主要为切吉乡、泉吉乡和金滩乡.该研究有望为青海湖快速扩张对当地居民的影响和潜在威胁提供重要的科学参考,并在气候变化背景下为制定缓解气候变化风险的预案提供科学依据. 相似文献
12.
多源水联合调度重构滇池流域健康水循环模式 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
河湖生态用水被挤占并严重短缺是滇池水污染严重和恶化趋势难以遏制的根本原因之一.在对滇池流域"自然人工"二元水循环结构剖析的基础上,结合滇池治理"六大工程"实施现状及存在问题,以水资源的高效配置和循环利用为核心,提出了重构滇池流域健康水循环的总体框架.在水资源模拟系统MIKE BASIN平台上,通过水力联系将环湖截污、外流域调水与节水、入湖河道整治、农业农村面源治理、生态修复、生态清淤等整合为一个有机整体,以恢复流域自然水系循环为目标,将外流域引调水与本区水库水、滇池水、地下水、城市再生水等多源水资源进行水量和水质统一配置,得到滇池流域水资源总体配置方案.结果表明:在牛栏江向滇池年均补水5.72亿m3的前提下,昆明城市尾水可以全部直接外排至下游作为工业用水,削减滇池入湖污染负荷,从而加速滇池生态环境修复的进程. 相似文献
13.
T. Diem S. Koch S. Schwarzenbach B. Wehrli C. J. Schubert 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2012,74(3):619-635
We investigated greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) from reservoirs located across an altitude gradient in Switzerland. These are the first results of greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs at high elevations in the Alps. Depth profiles were taken in 11 reservoirs located at different altitudes between the years 2003 and 2006. Diffusive trace gas emissions were calculated using surface gas concentrations, wind speeds and transfer velocities. Additionally, methane entering with the inflowing water and methane loss at the turbine was assessed for a subset of the reservoirs. All reservoirs were emitters of carbon dioxide and methane with an average of 970?±?340?mg?m?2?day?1 (results only from four lowland and one subalpine reservoir) and 0.20?±?0.15?mg?m?2?day?1, respectively. One reservoir (Lake Wohlen) emitted methane at a much higher rate (1.8?±?0.9?mg?m?2?day?1) than the other investigated reservoirs. There was no significant difference in methane emissions across the altitude gradient, but average dissolved methane concentrations decreased with increasing elevation. Only lowland reservoirs were sources for N2O (72?±?22???g?m?2?day?1), while the subalpine and alpine reservoirs were in equilibrium with atmospheric concentrations. These results indicate reservoirs from subalpine/alpine regions to be only minor contributors of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere compared to other reservoirs. 相似文献
14.
洱海流域低污染水类型、污染负荷及分布 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
为科学、合理地评估湖泊流域低污染水的类型及其污染负荷,以洱海流域为例,系统研究低污染水的概念及类型,确定了低污染水调查方法,并分析了洱海流域低污染水的来源、类型、产生量、污染物量和分布特征.结果表明,洱海流域低污染水主要包括污水处理厂处理尾水、城镇地表径流、农田排水(含村落地表径流)3种主要类型,产生量为20069×104m3/a.由低污染水带来的总氮(TN)负荷为1393 t/a,总磷(TP)负荷为77 t/a.从空间分布上看,洱海流域西部和北部片区低污染水TN、TP负荷比例最大,分别达到88%和87%,因此应主要针对西部和北部片区特点制定洱海流域低污染水控制措施. 相似文献
15.
Study of interactions between surface-water and pore-water in lakes is complicated due to spatio-temporal heterogeneities in flow condition across the sediment–water interface. In this study, seasonal hypersaline Maharlu Lake was investigated by collecting surface-water and pore-water samples from four nests of multilevel piezometers installed at different distances from the inflow of rivers to the lake. The hydraulic heads in the piezometers as well as vertical profiles of Mg+2, Na/Cl, and Br/Cl were used to investigate both hydraulic and geochemical interactions between surface-water and pore-water in the lake. Depletion of lake surface water and pore water with respect to B, Br, Li+, K+, Mg2+ and the absence of Mg-K chlorides and sulphates in the lake bed sediments is probably due to leakage of highly evaporated residual brine from the lake. Hydraulic gradients in the multilevel piezometric nests indicate that a general downward flow from surface-water to pore-water occurs across sediment–water interface. Vertical profiles of Br/Cl, Mg2+, and Na/Cl showed that the maximum flow rate was more than 1 m/yr close to the mouth of the inflowing rivers. The downward vertical flow was limited in the area far from the inflowing rivers due to the presence of an impermeable confining halite layer which interrupts the hydraulic connection between shallow pore water (less than 50 cm deep) and deeper zones. The hydraulic and geochemical interactions between surface-water and pore-water across sediment–water interface in the Maharlu Lake are of interest to find out the fate of pollutants and their distribution in the lake. 相似文献
16.
邛海是云贵高原水域面积>25 km2的11个天然湖泊之一。基于邛海入湖河流与湖区水质监测数据,揭示入湖河流水质特征,并探究其湖区响应。结果表明:2021年,邛海入湖河流水质空间异质性显著,且分为自然型、农业型和城镇型3种类型河流。官坝河等3条自然型河流水质优良,而高仓河等8条城镇型和农业型河流(R4～R11)水质较差,污染物浓度超标严重。2011—2021年,邛海主要入湖河流(官坝河、鹅掌河、小青河)的营养盐浓度呈下降或先增加后下降趋势,水质逐渐改善。流域土地利用变化是导致邛海入湖河流水质空间异质性的主要因素,同时也是河流水质在2011—2021年改善的原因之一。受湖泊水文环境与入湖河流污染类型影响,2017—2021年邛海湖区水环境及其与河流水质响应关系差异性明显:高枧湾水域(L5)水深浅、水环境容量小,主要受纳城镇污水,因而湖区营养盐与叶绿素a浓度高,在2021年达富营养状态;官坝河、鹅掌河与小青河入湖影响区(L1～L3)与小渔村(L4)水域湖水深、水环境容量大,污染物浓度与营养状态指数低,但因汇入的河流污染类型不同,湖区营养水平与河流水质响应存在季节性... 相似文献
17.
Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r2 = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
通过对现代乌伦古湖附近出露的古湖相沉积剖面的AMS~(14)C测年,粒度、总有机碳、总有机氮以及碳酸盐等环境代用指标的分析及其与全新世钻孔沉积记录的对比研究,结果发现:乌伦古湖在MIS-3晚期的33600-22500 cal a BP以及冰后期至早中全新世的16500-6500 cal a BP期间,维持着湖相沉积环境,湖面约比现在湖面高40 m.33600-22500 cal a BP的MIS-3晚期,气候相对温暖,乌伦古湖呈现高湖面特征,湖泊沉积物来源以流水搬运为主;22500-16500 cal a BP的末次冰期冰盛期,气候寒冷干燥,湖泊沉积物来源以风力搬运为主;16500-6500 cal a BP的冰后期以及早、中全新世期间,气候回暖,湖泊沉积物主要来源于河流径流作用.6500-5500 cal a BP,受高温干旱事件的影响,湖面收缩、水位剧降,除沉积中心外的其它钻孔位置出现沉积中断.5500 cal a BP后气候转冷变湿,湖泊重新恢复到现在的状态.乌伦古湖MIS-3晚期以来的古湖相沉积环境变化及其反映的古气候万年尺度上的干湿变化与周边区域气候环境变化记录有很好的一致性,响应了区域环境变化和全球气候突变事件.季风和西风的强度消长变化及其引起的环流条件改变以及温度变化引起的蒸发效应可能是区域气候环境变化的主要原因.这一古湖相沉积记录的研究可为MIS-3晚期以来北疆地区的古湖泊演化以及长时间尺度上西风和季风环流相互关系及其影响区的气候环境演化提供地质证据. 相似文献
19.
1974-2016年青海湖水面面积变化遥感监测 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
位于青藏高原东北部的青海湖是我国最大的咸水湖和内陆湖,也是青藏高原东北部的重要水汽源,青海湖面积的动态变化是气候和周围生态环境状况的重要体现.本研究利用长时间序列中分辨率遥感影像数据,通过人工提取湖岸水涯线信息对青海湖水面面积进行监测.结果显示：1974-2016年期间,青海湖面积总体上呈先减后增的变化趋势.2004年水面积最小,为4223.73 km2,比1974年减少253.80 km2.其中1974-1987年期间面积骤减;2000 2009年期间青海湖水面面积变化幅度相对较小,平均变化幅度为6.85 km2.2009-2016年7 a间,水面面积增加了128.27 km2.2012年青海湖面积骤增,比2011年8月同期增加65.12 km2;同年6月和9月的面积变化为2002-2016年最大,达到59.18 km2.湖东岸沙岛的湖岸线变化最为显著,1974-2004年岸线后退最大距离达4.59 km,2012年的年内最大变化距离为0.39 km.青海湖流域内降水补给增加,生态环境治理措施促使入湖河流径流量增大,是近年来湖水面积增加的主要原因. 相似文献
20.
Climate warming alters thermal stability but not stratification phenology in a small north‐temperate lake 
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下载免费PDF全文 A. M. Paterson E. A. Stainsby N. Michelutti H. Yao J. A. Rusak R. Ingram C. McConnell J. P. Smol 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6309-6319
Recent climate change represents one of the most serious anthropogenic threats to lake ecosystems in Canada. As meteorological and hydrological conditions are altered by climate change, so too are physical, chemical and biological properties of lakes. The ability to quantify the impact of climate change on the physical properties of lakes represents an integral step in estimating future chemical and biological change. To that end, we have used the dynamic reservoir simulation model, a one‐dimensional vertical heat transfer and mixing model, to hindcast and compare lake temperature‐depth profiles against 30 years of long‐term monitoring data in Harp Lake, Ontario. These temperature profiles were used to calculate annual (June–September) thermal stability values from 1979 to 2009. Comparisons between measured and modelled lake water temperature and thermal stability over three decades showed strong correlation (r2 > 0.9). However, despite significant increases in modelled thermal stability over the 30 year record, we found no significant change in the timing of the onset, breakdown or the duration of thermal stratification. Our data suggest that increased air temperature and decreased wind are the primary drivers of enhanced stability in Harp Lake since 1979. The high‐predictive ability of the Harp Lake dynamic reservoir simulation model suggests that its use as a tool in future lake management projects is appropriate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献