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1.
Postfire runoff and erosion are a concern, and more data are needed on the effects of wildfire at the watershed‐scale, especially in the Colorado Front Range. The goal of this study was to characterize and compare the streamflow and suspended sediment yield response of two watersheds (Bobcat Gulch and Jug Gulch) after the 2000 Bobcat fire. Bobcat Gulch had several erosion control treatments applied after the fire, including aerial seeding, contour log felling, mulching, and straw wattles. Jug Gulch was partially seeded. Study objectives were to: (1) measure precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yields; (2) assess the effect of rainfall intensity on peak discharges, storm runoff, and sediment yields; (3) evaluate short‐term hydrologic recovery. Two months after the fire, a storm with a maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I30 of 42 mm h?1 generated a peak discharge of 3900 l s?1 km?2 in Bobcat Gulch. The same storm produced less than 5 l s?1 km?2 in Jug Gulch, due to less rainfall and the low watershed response. In the second summer, storms with, I30 of 23 mm h?1 and 32 mm h?1 generated peak discharges of 1100 l s?1 km?2 and 1700 l s?1 km?2 in the treated and untreated watersheds respectively. Maximum water yield efficiencies were 10% and 17% respectively, but 18 of the 23 storms returned ≤2% of the rainfall as runoff, effectively obscuring interpretation of the erosion control treatments. I30 explained 86% of the variability in peak discharges, 74% of the variability in storm runoff, and >80% of the variability in sediment yields. Maximum single‐storm sediment yields in the second summer were 370 kg ha?1 in the treated watershed and 950 kg ha?1 in the untreated watershed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Uruguay has encouraged the development of the forestry sector since 1989. As a member of the Montreal Process, the country has followed a set of criteria and indicators for the Sustainable Forest Management. The aim of this paper is to describe the studies carried out in a large basin of 2097 km2, located in an area of humid subtropical climate and 1300 mm of long‐term mean annual rainfall, where the conversion of natural grasslands to forests increased up to 540 km2 during the last 15 years. Using data from daily rainfall and streamflow, the study analyses the effects of afforestation on the runoff and water loss. The analysis comprises hydrographs resulting from comparable rainfall events and annual and seasonal streamflow and water loss behaviour, both before afforestation (1975–1993) and during the afforestation period (1994–2008). A statistically significant reduction of runoff volumes (33–43%) and peak flows (59–65%) were identified on storm hydrographs. The annual and seasonal streamflow also showed diminishing tendencies due to the forestry development, whereas the water loss increases. The annual streamflow decreased between 8·2 and 36·5% depending on the annual rainfall totals. The streamflow reduction was higher during spring and summer (25·2–38·4%) and smaller during autumn and winter (15–20·3%). The water loss is expected to increase by 98 mm for the long‐term mean annual rainfall. The resulting information is a valuable input for the Integrated Water Resources Management of the Negro river basin located downstream, where hydroelectric power, rice irrigation and forestry development are supported. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Although soil processes affect the timing and amount of streamflow generated from snowmelt, they are often overlooked in estimations of snowmelt‐generated streamflow in the western USA. The use of a soil water balance modelling approach to incorporate the effects of soil processes, in particular soil water storage, on the timing and amount of snowmelt generated streamflow, was investigated. The study was conducted in the Reynolds Mountain East (RME) watershed, a 38 ha, snowmelt‐dominated watershed in southwest Idaho. Snowmelt or rainfall inputs to the soil were determined using a well established snow accumulation and melt model (Isnobal). The soil water balance model was first evaluated at a point scale, using periodic soil water content measurements made over two years at 14 sites. In general, the simulated soil water profiles were in agreement with measurements (P < 0·05) as further indicated by high R2 values (mostly > 0·85), y‐intercept values near 0, slopes near 1 and low average differences between measured and modelled values. In addition, observed soil water dynamics were generally consistent with critical model assumptions. Spatially distributed simulations over the watershed for the same two years indicate that streamflow initiation and cessation are closely linked to the overall watershed soil water storage capacity, which acts as a threshold. When soil water storage was below the threshold, streamflow was insensitive to snowmelt inputs, but once the threshold was crossed, the streamflow response was very rapid. At these times there was a relatively high degree of spatial continuity of satiated soils within the watershed. Incorporation of soil water storage effects may improve estimation of the timing and amount of streamflow generated from mountainous watersheds dominated by snowmelt. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Streamflow variability in the Upper and Lower Litani basin, Lebanon was modelled as there is a lack of long-term measured runoff data. To simulate runoff and streamflow, daily rainfall was derived using a stochastic rainfall generation model and monthly rainfall data. Two distinct synthetic rainfall models were developed based on a two-part probabilistic distribution approach. The rainfall occurrence was described by a Markov chain process, while the rainfall distribution on wet days was represented by two different distributions (i.e. gamma and mixed exponential distributions). Both distributions yielded similar results. The rainfall data were then processed using water balance and routing models to generate daily and monthly streamflow. Compared with measured data, the model results were generally reasonable (mean errors ranging from 0.1 to 0.8?m3/s at select locations). Finally, the simulated monthly streamflow data were used to investigate discharge trends in the Litani basin during the 20th century using the Mann-Kendall and Sen slope nonparametric trend detection methods. A significant drying trend of the basin was detected, reaching a streamflow reduction of 0.8 and 0.7 m3/s per decade in January for the Upper and Lower basin, respectively.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Ramadan, H.H., Beighley, R.E., and Ramamurthy, A.S., 2012. Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin, Lebanon. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1516–1529.  相似文献   

5.
Extreme floods often follow wildfire in mountainous watersheds. However, a quantitative relation between the runoff response and burn severity at the watershed scale has not been established. Runoff response was measured as the runoff coefficient C, which is equal to the peak discharge per unit drainage area divided by the average maximum 30 min rainfall intensity during each rain storm. The magnitude of the burn severity was expressed as the change in the normalized burn ratio. A new burn severity variable, hydraulic functional connectivity Φ was developed and incorporates both the magnitude of the burn severity and the spatial sequence of the burn severity along hillslope flow paths. The runoff response and the burn severity were measured in seven subwatersheds (0·24 to 0·85 km2) in the upper part of Rendija Canyon burned by the 2000 Cerro Grande Fire near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. A rainfall–discharge relation was determined for four of the subwatersheds with nearly the same burn severity. The peak discharge per unit drainage area was a linear function of the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I30. This function predicted a rainfall intensity threshold of 8·5 mm h?1 below which no runoff was generated. The runoff coefficient was a linear function of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity of the subwatersheds. Moreover, the variability of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity was related to the variability of the mean runoff coefficient, and this relation provides physical insight into why the runoff response from the same subwatershed can vary for different rainstorms with the same rainfall intensity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Afforestation has been suggested as a means of improving soil and water conservation in north‐western China, especially on the Loess Plateau. Understanding of the hydrological responses to afforestation will help us develop sustainable watershed management strategies. A study was conducted during the period of 1956 to 1980 to evaluate runoff responses to afforestation in a watershed on the Loess Plateau with an area of 1·15 km2, using a paired watershed approach. Deciduous trees, including locust (locusta L.), apricot (praecox L.) and elm (ulmus L.), were planted on about 80% of a treated watershed, while a natural grassland watershed remained unchanged. It was estimated that cumulative runoff yield in the treated watershed was reduced by 32% as a result of afforestation. A significant trend was also observed that shows annual runoff reduction increases with the age of the trees planted. Reduction in monthly runoff occurred mainly from June to September, which was ascribed to greater rainfall and utilization by trees during this period. Afforestation also resulted in reduction in the volume and peak flow of storm runoff events in the treated watershed with greater reduction in peak flow. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
《Journal of Hydrology》1999,214(1-4):32-48
The research described in this article investigates the utility of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for short term forecasting of streamflow. The work explores the capabilities of ANNs and compares the performance of this tool to conventional approaches used to forecast streamflow. Several issues associated with the use of an ANN are examined including the type of input data and the number, and the size of hidden layer(s) to be included in the network. Perceived strengths of ANNs are the capability for representing complex, non-linear relationships as well as being able to model interaction effects. The application of the ANN approach is to a portion of the Winnipeg River system in Northwest Ontario, Canada. Forecasting was conducted on a catchment area of approximately 20 000 km2. using quarter monthly time intervals. The results were most promising. A very close fit was obtained during the calibration (training) phase and the ANNs developed consistently outperformed a conventional model during the verification (testing) phase for all of the four forecast lead-times. The average improvement in the root mean squared error (RMSE) for the 8 years of test data varied from 5 cms in the four time step ahead forecasts to 12.1 cms in the two time step ahead forecasts.  相似文献   

8.
A method for estimation of mean baseflow residence time in watersheds from hydrograph runoff recession characteristics was developed. Runoff recession characteristics were computed for the period 1993–96 in the 2 km2 Winnisook watershed, Catskill Mountains, southeastern New York, and were used to derive mean values of subsurface hydraulic conductivity and the storage coefficient. These values were then used to estimate the mean baseflow residence time from an expression of the soil contact time, based on watershed soil and topographic characteristics. For comparison, mean baseflow residence times were calculated for the same period of time through the traditional convolution integral approach, which relates rainfall δ18O to δ18O values in streamflow. Our computed mean baseflow residence time was 9 months by both methods. These results indicate that baseflow residence time can be calculated accurately using recession analysis, and the method is less expensive than using environmental and/or artificial tracers. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km2. Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km2 catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km2. However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, summer rainfall contributions to streamflow were quantified in the sub‐arctic, 30% glacierized Tarfala (21.7 km2) catchment in northern Sweden for two non‐consecutive summer sampling seasons (2004 and 2011). We used two‐component hydrograph separation along with isotope ratios (δ18O and δD) of rainwater and daily streamwater samplings to estimate relative fraction and uncertainties (because of laboratory instrumentation, temporal variability and spatial gradients) of source water contributions. We hypothesized that the glacier influence on how rainfall becomes runoff is temporally variable and largely dependent on a combination of the timing of decreasing snow cover on glaciers and the relative moisture storage condition within the catchment. The results indicate that the majority of storm runoff was dominated by pre‐event water. However, the average event water contribution during storm events differed slightly between both years with 11% reached in 2004 and 22% in 2011. Event water contributions to runoff generally increased over 2011 the sampling season in both the main stream of Tarfala catchment and in the two pro‐glacial streams that drain Storglaciären (the largest glacier in Tarfala catchment covering 2.9 km2). We credit both the inter‐annual and intra‐annual differences in event water contributions to large rainfall events late in the summer melt season, low glacier snow cover and elevated soil moisture due to large antecedent precipitation. Together amplification of these two mechanisms under a warming climate might influence the timing and magnitude of floods, the sediment budget and nutrient cycling in glacierized catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Technological improvements in remote sensing and geographic information systems have demonstrated the abundance of artificially constructed water bodies across the landscape. Although research has shown the ubiquity of small ponds globally, and in the southeastern United States in particular, their cumulative impact in terms of evaporative alteration is less well quantified. The objectives of this study are to examine the hydrologic and evaporative importance of small artificial water bodies in the Upper Oconee watershed in the northern Georgia Piedmont, USA, by mapping their locations and modelling these small reservoirs using the Soil Water Assessment Tool. Comparative Soil Water Assessment Tool models were run with and without the inclusion of small reservoir surface area and volume. The models used meteorological inputs from 1990–2013 to represent years with drought, high precipitation, and moderate precipitation for both the calibration and evaluation periods. Statistical comparison of streamflow indicated that the calibration methodology produced results where the default model simulation without reservoirs fit observed flows more closely than the modified model with small reservoirs included (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 vs. 0.64, r2 of 0.73 vs. 0.66, and percent bias of 11.4 vs. 21.6). In addition, Penman–Monteith, Hargreaves, and Priestley–Taylor evapotranspiration equations were used to estimate actual evaporation from 2,219 small water bodies identified throughout the 1,936.8 km2 watershed. Depending on the evaporation equation used, water bodies evaporated an average of 0.03–0.036 km3/year for the period 2003–2013. Using Penman–Monteith further, if the reservoirs were not considered and average actual evapotranspiration rates from the rest of the basin were applied, only 0.016 km3 of water would have left the basin as a result of evapotranspiration. This finding suggests construction of small reservoirs increased evaporation by an average of 0.017 km3 per year (approximately 46,500 m3/day). As the construction of small reservoirs continues and high resolution image data used to map these water bodies becomes increasingly available, watershed models that evolve to address the cumulative impacts of small water bodies on evaporation and other hydrologic processes will have greater potential to benefit the water resource management community.  相似文献   

12.
Water availability is the primary constraint on the improvement of food security in rural areas in northwestern Cambodia. A 4-year study was carried out in the upper Stung Sreng watershed to assess water resources. Four sub-watersheds with different land cover types, ranging in size from 1.5 to 185 km2, were monitored using dedicated weather stations and rain- and streamgauges. Geophysics and observation boreholes were used to characterize aquifers. Rainwater is mostly split into evapotranspiration (annual mean of 54% rainfall) and streamflow components (49%), because groundwater recharge is low (1%). Thus, rainwater and streamflow are the main sources for irrigation development. Groundwater can be used only in specific locations for low water-demand crops. A total of 186 household ponds and three village-scale dams were built and 31 wells were installed. The household pond was determined to be the best solution for irrigation development because of its simple management.
EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Piniewski  相似文献   

13.
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations vary among headwaters, with variation typically decreasing with watershed area. We hypothesized that streamflow intermittence could be an important source of variation in DOC concentrations across a small watershed, through (a) temporal legacies of drying on organic matter accumulation and biotic communities and (b) spatial patterns of connectivity with DOC sources. To test these hypotheses, we conducted three synoptic water chemistry sampling campaigns across a 25.5‐km2 watershed in south‐eastern Idaho during early spring, late summer, and late fall. Using changepoint analysis, we found that DOC variability collapsed at a consistent location (watershed areas ~1.3 to ~1.8 km2) across seasons, which coincided with the watershed area where variability in streamflow intermittence collapsed (~1.5 km2). To test hypothesized mechanisms through which intermittence may affect DOC, we developed temporal, spatial, and spatio‐temporal metrics of streamflow intermittence and related these to DOC concentrations. Streamflow intermittence was a strong predictor of DOC across seasons, but different metrics predicted DOC depending on season. Seasonal changes in the effects of intermittence on DOC reflected seasonal changes from instream to flowpath controls. A metric that captured spatial connectivity to sources significantly predicted DOC during high flows, when DOC is typically controlled by transport. In contrast, a reach‐scale temporal metric of intermittence predicted DOC during the late growing season, when DOC is typically controlled by instream processes and when legacy effects of drying (e.g., diminished biological communities) would likely affect DOC. The effects of intermittence on DOC extend beyond temporal legacies at a point. Our results suggest that legacy effects of intermittence do not propagate downstream in this system. Instead, snapshots of spatial patterns of intermittence upstream of a reach are critical for understanding spatial patterns of DOC through connectivity to DOC sources, and these processes drive patterns of DOC even in perennial reaches.  相似文献   

14.
Wildfire is a natural component of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe rangelands that induces temporal shifts in plant community physiognomy, ground surface conditions, and erosion rates. Fire alteration of the vegetation structure and ground cover in these ecosystems commonly amplifies soil losses by wind- and water-driven erosion. Much of the fire-related erosion research for sagebrush steppe has focused on either erosion by wind over gentle terrain or water-driven erosion under high-intensity rainfall on complex topography. However, many sagebrush rangelands are geographically positioned in snow-dominated uplands with complex terrain in which runoff and sediment delivery occur primarily in winter months associated with cold-season hydrology. Current understanding is limited regarding fire effects on the interaction of wind- and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes for these ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated fire impacts on vegetation, ground cover, soils, and erosion across spatial scales at a snow-dominated mountainous sagebrush site over a 2-year period post-fire. Vegetation, ground cover, and soil conditions were assessed at various plot scales (8 m2 to 3.42 ha) through standard field measures. Erosion was quantified through a network of silt fences (n = 24) spanning hillslope and side channel or swale areas, ranging from 0.003 to 3.42 ha in size. Sediment delivery at the watershed scale (129 ha) was assessed by suspended sediment samples of streamflow through a drop-box v-notch weir. Wildfire consumed nearly all above-ground live vegetation at the site and resulted in more than 60% bare ground (bare soil, ash, and rock) in the immediate post-fire period. Widespread wind-driven sediment loading of swales was observed over the first month post-fire and extensive snow drifts were formed in these swales each winter season during the study. In the first year, sediment yields from north- and south-facing aspects averaged 0.99–8.62 t ha−1 at the short-hillslope scale (~0.004 ha), 0.02–1.65 t ha−1 at the long-hillslope scale (0.02–0.46 ha), and 0.24–0.71 t ha−1 at the swale scale (0.65–3.42 ha), and watershed scale sediment yield was 2.47 t ha−1. By the second year post fire, foliar cover exceeded 120% across the site, but bare ground remained more than 60%. Sediment yield in the second year was greatly reduced across short- to long-hillslope scales (0.02–0.04 t ha−1), but was similar to first-year measures for swale plots (0.24–0.61 t ha−1) and at the watershed scale (3.05 t ha−1). Nearly all the sediment collected across all spatial scales was delivered during runoff events associated with cold-season hydrologic processes, including rain-on-snow, rain-on-frozen soils, and snowmelt runoff. Approximately 85–99% of annual sediment collected across all silt fence plots each year was from swales. The high levels of sediment delivered across hillslope to watershed scales in this study are attributed to observed preferential loading of fine sediments into swale channels by aeolian processes in the immediate post-fire period and subsequent flushing of these sediments by runoff from cold-season hydrologic processes. Our results suggest that the interaction of aeolian and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes is an important component for consideration in post-fire erosion assessment and prediction and can have profound implications for soil loss from these ecosystems. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km2 basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km2 scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km2 (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.  相似文献   

16.
The source and hydrochemical makeup of a stream reflects the connectivity between rainfall, groundwater, the stream, and is reflected to water quantity and quality of the catchment. However, in a semi-arid, thick, loess covered catchment, temporal variation of stream source and event associated behaviours are lesser known. Thus, the isotopic and chemical hydrographs in a widely distributed, deep loess, semi-arid catchment of the northern Chinese Loess Plateau were characterized to determine the source and hydrochemical behaviours of the stream during intra-rainfall events. Rainfall and streamflow were sampled during six hydrologic events coupled with measurements of stream baseflow and groundwater. The deuterium isotope (2H), major ions (Cl−, SO42−, NO3−, Ca2+, K+, Mg2+, and Na+) were evaluated in water samples obtained during rainfall events. Temporal variation of 2H and Cl− measured in the groundwater and stream baseflow prior to rainfall was similar; however, the isotope compositions of the streamflow fluctuated significantly and responded quickly to rainfall events, likely due to an infiltration excess, overland dominated surface runoff during torrential rainfall events. Time source separation using 2H demonstrated greater than 72% on average, the stream composition was event water during torrential rainfall events, with the proportion increasing with rainfall intensity. Solutes concentrations in the stream had loglinear relationships with stream discharge, with an outling anomaly with an example of an intra-rainfall event on Oct. 24, 2015. Stream Cl− behaved nonconservative during rainfall events, temporal variation of Cl− indicated a flush and washout at the onset of small rainfall events, a dilution but still high concentration pattern in high discharge and old water dominated in regression flow period. This study indicates rainfall intensity affects runoff responses in a semi-arid catchment, and the stored water in the thick, loess covered areas was less connected with stream runoff. Solute transport may threaten water quality in the area, requiring further analysis of the performance of the eco-restoration project.  相似文献   

17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):309-322
Abstract

The understanding of the runoff generation processes is reviewed and simulation of daily streamflow is reported for the Gangotri Glacier basin (Central Himalayas) with area of ～556 km2, of which ～286 km2 is occupied by the glaciers, and altitude of 4000 to 7000 m.a.s.l. A hydro-meteorological database was established by collecting meteorological and hydrological data near the snout of the glacier for four melt seasons (2000–2003) covering the period from May to October every year. Flow was simulated using a snowmelt model (SNOWMOD) based on the temperature index approach. Two years (2000 and 2001) of the four-year data set were used to calibrate the model, and the remaining two years (2002 and 2003) were used for verification. The study was carried out during the ablation period, as the availability of data was restricted to that period, responsible for a major part of the runoff. The model performed well for both calibration and verification periods. The overall efficiency of the model, R 2, was 0.96 and the difference in volume of computed and observed streamflow was ?2.5%, indicating a good model performance. Simulation of different components of streamflow clearly indicates that almost all the high peaks are attributed to melt. The model was also used to estimate the respective contributions by melt and rainfall to the total seasonal flow: for summer runoff, these were estimated to be about 97% and 3%. Such studies are very useful for the planning and management of water resources in high-altitude areas and for designing hydropower projects.  相似文献   

18.
A continuous Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method that considers time‐varied SCS CN values was developed based on the original SCS CN method with a revised soil moisture accounting approach to estimate run‐off depth for long‐term discontinuous storm events. The method was applied to spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation of rainfall‐run‐off flow with an underlying assumption for its spatial variability using a geographic information systems‐based spatially distributed Clark's unit hydrograph method (Distributed‐Clark; hybrid hydrologic model), which is a simple few parameter run‐off routing method for input of spatiotemporally varied run‐off depth, incorporating conditional unit hydrograph adoption for different run‐off precipitation depth‐based direct run‐off flow convolution. Case studies of spatially distributed long‐term (total of 6 years) hydrologic simulation for four river basins using daily NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimations demonstrate overall performances of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) 0.62, coefficient of determination (R2) 0.64, and percent bias 0.33% in direct run‐off and ENS 0.71, R2 0.72, and percent bias 0.15% in total streamflow for model result comparison against observed streamflow. These results show better fit (improvement in ENS of 42.0% and R2 of 33.3% for total streamflow) than the same model using spatially averaged gauged rainfall. Incorporation of logic for conditional initial abstraction in a continuous SCS CN method, which can accommodate initial run‐off loss amounts based on previous rainfall, slightly enhances model simulation performance; both ENS and R2 increased by 1.4% for total streamflow in a 4‐year calibration period. A continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model presented in this study is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of long‐term hydrologic applications for spatially distributed rainfall‐run‐off generation and routing, as a relatively simple hydrologic modelling approach for the use of more reliable gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimations.  相似文献   

19.
It is demonstrated that a unitgraph can be obtained without using rainfall data, provided data from at least two runoff events are available. A numerical method has been devised which calculates this common unitgraph for a set of surface runoff events and at the same time determines the input (rainfall excess) for each event. The method has been successfully tested on catchments ranging in size from 0.4 to 600 km2; it requires streamflow observations taken at intervals which retain all significant frequencies in the runoff hydrographs. The method also requires application of a baseflow separation procedure which is consistent for all events. The new approach has the potential to lead to more objective studies of the effects of catchment changes on the unitgraph and provides scope for comparisons of the common unitgraphs with geomorphological instantaneous unitgraphs.  相似文献   

20.
Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km2). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.  相似文献   

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