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IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第二工作组（WGII）报告评估了气候变化对人类健康、人类安全、生计与贫困的影响,指出气候变化已经对人类健康和安全造成了负面影响,气候变化、气候变率和极端气候事件给城市和农村的贫困人口增添了额外的负担,与气候变化相关的风险增大。21世纪的气候变化,将继续加剧现有健康问题,增加人类的迁徙,放大冲突的驱动因素的影响,对许多国家的关键基础设施造成不利影响,给小岛国和有很长海岸线国家的领土完整带来风险;整个21世纪,气候变化将减缓经济增长,进一步威胁粮食安全,使减贫更为困难,贫困问题更加突出。 相似文献
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开展农户生计对气候变化的敏感性研究有利于深入认识气候变化与生计的关系,对增强农户的气候变化适应能力和降低生计脆弱性具有重要意义。在梳理不同领域敏感性概念的基础上,阐述了农户生计对气候变化敏感性的科学内涵和研究框架,重点分析了敏感性表征和综合评价指标体系。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性是指气候变化和极端事件对农户生计的影响程度,敏感性表征主要表现在气候变化对自然资源、人类健康、牲畜、资产和收入等方面的影响,不同地区和人群敏感性表征具有差异性。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性随着发展程度提高而下降,生计多样化、基础设施建设等有助于降低气候变化的影响。生计敏感性多为脆弱性研究的一部分,常以可持续生计分析为框架,运用指标评估法进行综合评价。未来研究需要完善敏感性理论框架和研究方法,加强适应的有效性评估,以及开展跨区域或跨时段的生计敏感性对比研究,重点关注生态脆弱和贫困地区。 相似文献
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气候变化已成为全球最为关注的环境问题之一,随着全球气候变化研究的进展,开展气候变化影响的相关研究开始成为学术界最为活跃的研究领域之一。以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化,会引起降水、温度等气候因子的变化以及极端气候事件频率和强度增加等问题。气候变化必将对生计即人们使用的资源和谋生活动产生不同程度的影响。本文将生计内容引入到气候变化影响的研究中,利用西吉县近五十年的气候数据、100多户问卷调查数据以及相关资料,研究过去及目前气候变化对西吉县农户生计的影响,主要表现为影响了当地农户饮用水、粮食产量、作物种类和面积、外出打工人数、农民收入、粮食价格等,造成当地农民生活困难;并对其适应气候变化提出了一些建议。 相似文献
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2022年4月4日,IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》报告和决策者摘要发布。报告全面评估了2010年以来减缓气候变化领域的最新科学进展,为国际社会深度认识和理解全球温室气体排放情况、不同温升水平下的减排路径以及可持续发展背景下的气候变化减缓和适应行动等提供了重要科学依据。基于报告主要结论,围绕温室气体排放的区域差异、减缓路径分类、与土地利用相关的排放评估及CO去除技术评估等方面的亮点,文中提出在应对气候变化减缓政策行动中,中国应坚定“双碳”战略目标,在综合考虑经济发展阶段和资源禀赋差异背景下,将可持续发展、公平和消除贫困植根于社会发展愿景中实施减缓路径,并加快提升气候变化综合评估核心科学技术的研发进度,以进一步提升国际影响力和话语权。 相似文献
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由于全球气候变化,气温升高导致的极端天气气候事件发生的频率和强度也随之加大。针对这一有关全球的发展问题,文章参考“气候变化对增长和发展的影响”（斯特思报告第2部分）、“应对气候变化的政策响应”（斯特恩报告第5部分）以及日本东京大学工程研究生院Yuzuru Matsuoka等人的“气候变化综合评估模式：亚太综合模式（AIM）”,提出了气候变化对人类基本生活要素的影响,预估了温室气体“常规商务”（BAU）排放情况下气候变化可能对全球社会经济产生的潜在影响,讨论了适当气候变化产生的成本与效益,简介了斯特恩报告中采用的基本评估模式和亚太综合评估模式。 相似文献
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农业是印度经济的重要组成部分,为印度提供粮食,为许多人带来生计。尽管气候变化的影响因地而异,但是气候变化对农业生产力和耕种模式会产生影响。由于农业的变化会影响食品安全、贸易政策、民生和水土保持问题,因此农业政策的影响是广泛而深远的。 相似文献
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IPCC评估报告对国际气候变化谈判进程有重要影响,目前正在陆续发布的第五次评估报告已明确作为气候变化新协议谈判的重要信息来源,对讨论2020年后应对气候变化国际合作机制的影响不容忽视。最先发布的第一工作组评估报告基于新的科学观测事实、更为完善的归因分析和气候系统模式模拟结果,进一步确认了气候变暖的事实,发现了人类活动与全球温升之间因果关系的新证据,以及温室气体累积排放与温升响应之间的定量联系。本文通过分析其中一些关键结论可能的政策含义,探讨了这些关键结论对目前国际气候变化谈判进程和新协议等相关问题的可能影响,探讨了科学信息在气候变化决策过程中的作用,以及如何更为科学地理解和利用这些重要结论。 相似文献
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对IPCC第五次评估报告气溶胶-云对气候变化影响与响应结论的解读 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
<正>在气候变化的驱动因子中,气溶胶和云对气候变化的影响程度仍然是不确定性最大的部分。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组(WG1)第五次评估报告(AR5)总结了有关云和气溶胶对气候变化影响的研究,从观测、理论以及模式角度评估了其对气候变化的影响与响应~([1]),得出以下主要结论。 相似文献
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适应气候变化政策机制的国际经验与启示 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国高度重视适应气候变化工作,实行减缓与适应并重的应对气候变化原则,已出台适应气候变化相关的战略、规划等一系列政策文件。但总体来看,中国适应气候变化政策与行动尚处于起步阶段,面临着法规制度缺位、监测评估不足、组织协调机制不完善等挑战,适应气候变化政策的类型、数量和力度都明显弱于减缓。为完善中国适应气候变化政策与机制的框架设计,文中梳理了相关研究、《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的适应气候变化国际机制及主要国家经验,提出了一套完整闭环的适应气候变化核心决策流程及关键支撑机制,并重点从开展法制建设、制定适应战略（计划）、建立监测评估机制、构建协调机制和完善资金机制等五方面,归纳了主要国家的经验与启示,最终研究提出完善我国适应气候变化政策与机制框架设计的建议,包括加快建立和完善适应气候变化法制建设、加快构建国家适应气候变化的政策体系、加快完善国家适应气候变化的机制设计、加强适应气候变化支撑能力建设、推动适应气候变化的国际合作等。 相似文献
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Many tools that are helpful for evaluating emissions mitigation measures, such as carbon abatement cost curves, focus exclusively on cost and emissions reduction potential without quantifying the direct and indirect impacts on stakeholders. The impacts of climate change will be the most severe and immediate for billions of poor people, especially for those whose livelihoods are based on agriculture and subsistence activities and are directly dependent on weather patterns. Thus, equity and vulnerability considerations must be central to GHG emissions reduction strategies. A case study of a carbon abatement cost curve for an electricity system in two Nicaraguan rural villages is presented and is complemented with assessments based on the poverty metrics of the poverty headcount, the Gini coefficient, and the Kuznets ratios. Although these metrics are relatively easy to calculate, the study provides a general indication as to how the social impacts of mitigation strategies on the poor (whether they are in rural or urban environments, developed or developing countries) can be revealed and highlights the inequalities that are embedded in them. Further work analysing how mitigation measures affect the various more detailed poverty indices, such as the Human Development, Gender Equality, or Multidimensional Poverty indices, is needed. 相似文献
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In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts. 相似文献
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Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low-productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10–60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20–50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by significant amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts. 相似文献
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Syud Amer Ahmed Noah S. Diffenbaugh Thomas W. Hertel David B. Lobell Navin Ramankutty Ana R. Rios Pedram Rowhani 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):46-55
Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change. 相似文献
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This article discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction and types of migration within the developing world. Conflict impact and poverty are the two primary drivers directly shaping migrations within poor and high-risk environments. Indirect drivers of migration include livelihood fragility, ecological and political instabilities. Conflicts overwhelmingly occur in states where much of the population is dependent upon the environment/natural resources for their livelihoods. There is little reliable evidence to suggest a link between civil conflict and climate change, however, the environmental changes occurring across developing states shape the ways in which civilians can respond to political and economic threats. The crucial point is that the communities who are subject to increasing environmental variation and disruption, through either external or internal processes, are likely to become poorer as a consequence. This poverty lessens their ability to respond to the myriad of threats in their environs, including conflict, ecological disasters, disease, or economic hardship. Hence, there is an endogeneity to conflict, precipitating factors and possible outcomes: the persistence of violence plays a determining role in the sustainability of livelihoods, poverty levels and the propensity of migration within chronically conflicted areas. Those most vulnerable to forced migration live in ‘chronically vulnerable areas’, which are characterized by the deterioration, loss or destruction of primary livelihood systems and productive assets, environmental degradation and deterioration of natural resources, increasing impoverishment of communities and households, geographical isolation and a dependence on relief. 相似文献
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《Global Environmental Change》2003,13(1):51-59
The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation. 相似文献
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Sofie Skjeflo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1694-1701
Climate change and climate variability affect households in developing countries both directly through their impact on crop yields and indirectly through their impact on wages, food prices and the livelihoods of the poor. Therefore, vulnerable household groups cannot be identified without considering their position in and access to markets. I illustrate the effects – transmitted through markets – that are significant in household exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change by simulating productivity shocks to maize up to 2030 due to climate change in a computable general equilibrium model of Malawi. The results show that rural households with large land holdings may benefit from the adverse impact of climate change on maize yields as a result of increased maize prices. Urban poor and small-scale farmers are vulnerable to climate change due to the large portion of their incomes spent on food. Existing vulnerability measures that do not consider equilibrium effects and characterise all farmers as vulnerable may therefore be misleading. 相似文献
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Climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in Northern Ghana and have caused further impoverishment of Ghana’s poorest region. Farmers have diversified their livelihoods to adapt to uncertain environmental conditions in various ways. While traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for Ghana’s urban markets. This has helped to cope with a changing environment, ameliorated poverty and reversed rural–urban migration, while the local hydrology curbed an over-exploitation of groundwater resources, commonly associated with an uncontrolled farmer-driven expansion of groundwater irrigation. This research confirms that farmer-driven small-scale irrigation can play an important role in the process of climate change adaptation. However, while farmers tried to integrate in the larger economy, they have become subject to market failures that in their essence are caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. It is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. Many convincing arguments call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion. 相似文献