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1.
Loss estimation for non‐ductile reinforced concrete building in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada: effects of mega‐thrust Mw9‐class subduction earthquakes and aftershocks 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper presents, within the performance‐based earthquake engineering framework, a comprehensive probabilistic seismic loss estimation method that accounts for main sources of uncertainty related to hazard, vulnerability, and loss. The loss assessment rigorously integrates multiple engineering demand parameters (maximum and residual inter‐story drift ratio and peak floor acceleration) with consideration of mainshock–aftershock sequences. A 4‐story non‐ductile reinforced concrete building located in Victoria, British Colombia, Canada, is considered as a case study. For 100 mainshock and mainshock–aftershock earthquake records, incremental dynamic analysis is performed, and the three engineering demand parameters are fitted with a probability distribution and corresponding dependence computed. Finally, with consideration of different demolition limit states, loss assessment is performed. From the results, it can be shown that when seismic vulnerability models are integrated with seismic hazard, the aftershock effects are relatively minor in terms of overall seismic loss (1–4% increase). Moreover, demolition limit state parameters, uncertainties of collapse fragility, and non‐collapse seismic demand prediction models have showed significant contribution to the loss assessment. The seismic loss curves for the reference case and for cases with the varied parameters can differ by as large as about 150%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Framework of aftershock fragility assessment–case studies: older California reinforced concrete building frames 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
We introduce a general decision analysis procedure based on stochastic dynamic programming in the post‐quake aftershock environment. The damage sustained by the building due to the mainsheet, the time‐varying aftershock rates and the potential for further damage progression in the post‐quake environment are all factors taken into consideration in the proposed methodology. This procedure enables the optimal decision after the mainshock to be selected based on the minimization of expected financial losses, subject to a constraint on a minimal level of individual life‐safety, using a consistent probabilistic framework to explicitly quantify the uncertainties in the variables. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management. 相似文献
5.
Earthquakes are generally clustered, both in time and space. Conventionally, each cluster is made of foreshocks, the mainshock, and aftershocks. Seismic damage can possibly accumulate because of the effects of multiple earthquakes in one cluster and/or because the structure is unrepaired between different clusters. Typically, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework neglects seismic damage accumulation. This is because (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only refers to mainshocks and (ii) classical fragility curves represent the failure probability in one event, of given intensity, only. However, for life cycle assessment, it can be necessary to account for the build-up of seismic losses because of damage in multiple events. It has been already demonstrated that a Markovian model (i.e., a Markov chain), accounting for damage accumulation in multiple mainshocks, can be calibrated by maintaining PSHA from the classical PBEE framework and replacing structural fragility with a set of state-dependent fragility curves. In fact, the Markov chain also works when damage accumulates in multiple aftershocks from a single mainshock of known magnitude and location, if aftershock PSHA replaces classical PSHA. Herein, this model is extended further, developing a Markovian model that accounts, at the same time, for damage accumulation: (i) within any mainshock–aftershock seismic sequence and (ii) among multiple sequences. The model is illustrated through applications to a series of six-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings designed for three sites with different seismic hazard levels in Italy. The time-variant reliability assessment results are compared with the classical PBEE approach and the accumulation model that only considers mainshocks, so as to address the relevance of aftershocks for life cycle assessment. 相似文献
6.
Post‐repair effect of column jackets on aftershock fragilities of damaged RC bridges subjected to successive earthquakes 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In light of recent earthquakes, structures damaged during an initial seismic event (mainshock) may be more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). In this paper, a framework for the development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a bridge damaged during an initial event will exhibit a given damage state following one or more subsequent events. The framework is capable of (i) quantifying the cumulative damage of unrepaired bridges subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences (effect of multiple earthquakes) and (ii) evaluating the effectiveness of column repair schemes such as steel and fiber‐reinforced‐polymer jackets (post‐repair effect of jackets). To achieve this aim, the numerical model of repaired columns is validated using existing experimental results. A non‐seismically designed bridge is chosen as a case study and is modeled for three numerical bridge models: a damaged (but unrepaired) bridge model, and two bridge models with columns repaired with steel and fiber‐reinforced polymer jackets. A series of back‐to‐back dynamic analyses under successive earthquakes are performed for each level of existing damage. Using simulated results, failure probabilities of components for multiple limit states are computed for each bridge model and then are used to evaluate the relative vulnerability of components associated with cumulative damage and column repair. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
一次强震常伴随着多次余震作用,且时间间隔较短。研究表明,主震诱发的系列余震会对原有结构造成进一步的累积损伤。核岛厂房结构作为核反应堆的最后一道防线,其在服役期间可能遭受主震和余震的累积作用。参考我国现行规范,定义了四类性能水准(PL)和三种极限状态(LS),以混凝土最大应变作为结构破坏指数(DI),以谱加速度S a作为地震动强度指标(IM),提出一种考虑主余震序列作用下核岛厂房结构的易损性评估方法。选取PEER数据库地震记录,采用增量动力分析方法,给出了AP1000核岛厂房在420条主余震序列地震作用下的易损性曲线。定量分析了主震强度和主余震谱加速度比对核岛厂房结构易损性的影响。结果表明:核岛厂房的超越概率随着余震强度的增大而增大;余震在主震对结构损伤的基础上会加重核岛厂房的附加损伤;随着主余震谱加速度比从0.5增加到1.0时,核岛厂房结构破坏状态超越概率提高了10%~40%。 相似文献
8.
A large mainshock may trigger numerous aftershocks within a short period, and nuclear power plant (NPP) structures have the probability to be exposed to mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences. However, the researchers focused on seismic analyses of reinforced concrete containment (RCC) buildings under only mainshocks. The aim of this paper is to thoroughly investigate the dynamic responses of a RCC building under mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences. For that purpose, 10 as-recorded mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences with two horizontal components are considered in this study, and a typical three-dimensional RCC model subjected to the selected as-recorded seismic sequences is established. Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of mainshocks equal to 0.3 g (safe shutdown earthquake load-SSE load) are considered in this paper. The results indicate that aftershocks have a significant effect on the responses of the RCC in terms of maximum top accelerations, maximum top displacements and accumulated damage. Furthermore, in order to preserve the RCC from large damage under repeated earthquakes, local damage and global damage indices are suggested as limitations under only mainshocks. 相似文献
9.
Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analytical models. Based on the nonlinear dynamic analysis results, collapse and damage fragility curves are generated for intact and damaged buildings. If the building is not severely damaged in the mainshock, its collapse capacity is unaffected in the aftershock. However, if the building is extensively damaged in the mainshock, there is a significant reduction in its collapse capacity in the aftershock. For example, if an RC frame experiences 4% or more interstory drift in the mainshock, the median capacity to resist aftershock shaking is reduced by about 40%. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of different measures of physical damage observed in the mainshock‐damaged buildings for predicting the reduction in collapse capacity of the damaged building in subsequent aftershocks. These physical damage indicators for the building are chosen such that they quantify the qualitative red tagging (unsafe for occupation) criteria employed in post‐earthquake evaluation of RC frames. The results indicated that damage indicators related to the drift experienced by the damaged building best predicted the reduced aftershock collapse capacities for these ductile structures. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Zhao Chunfeng Zhou Lei Huang Shenjiang Gautam Avinash 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(11):6047-6074
In general, historical earthquake events have shown that a strong mainshock might trigger several aftershocks, which can cause additional damage and seismic risk to the structures. This work tries to investigate the aftershock duration on seismic fragility of the shield building in consideration of initial damage. For this purpose, a three-dimensional finite element model of shield building is established using a concrete damage plastic model. A series of mainshock-aftershock sequences with different durations are selected and scaled to match the target spectrum. A damage ratio of tensile damage is developed to evaluate the additional damage caused by mainshock and aftershocks. Aftershocks with three durations, namely, 20 s, 40 s, and 60 s, are used to study the effect of initial damage levels and aftershock durations on the accumulative damage and seismic fragility of the shield building. The results indicate that those aftershocks with longer durations may wreak more worse cumulative damage to the post-mainshock damaged structure and significantly affect the probability of exceedance. It is also indicated that the initial damage levels have a significant impact on the fragility curves of the shield building. This work can directly incorporate the influence of mainshock-damaged states into the fragility assessment for Nuclear Power Plant.
相似文献12.
Hossein Ebrahimian Fatemeh Jalayer Domenico Asprone Anna M. Lombardi Warner Marzocchi Andrea Prota Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(14):2179-2197
Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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15.
Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances of seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays in time as a negative power law. Risk management in the post‐event emergency phase has to deal with this short‐term seismicity. In fact, because the structural systems of interest might have suffered some damage in the mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, the failure risk may be large until the intensity of the sequence reduces or the structure is repaired. At the state‐of‐the‐art, the quantitative assessment of aftershock risk is aimed at building tagging, that is, to regulate occupancy. The study, on the basis of age‐dependent stochastic processes, derived closed‐form approximations for the aftershock reliability of simple nonevolutionary elastic‐perfectly‐plastic damage‐cumulating systems, conditional on different information about the structure. Results show that, in the case hypotheses apply, the developed models may represent a basis for handy tools enabling risk‐informed tagging by stakeholders and decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Jamie E. Padgett 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(15):1743-1761
Deteriorating highway bridges in the United States and worldwide have demonstrated susceptibility to damage in earthquake events, with considerable economic consequences due to repair or replacement. Current seismic loss assessment approaches for these critical elements of the transportation network neglect the effects of aging and degradation on the loss estimate. However, the continued aging and deterioration of bridge infrastructure could not only increase susceptibility to seismic damage, but also have a significant impact on these economic losses. Furthermore, the contribution of individual aging components to system‐level losses, correlations between these components, and uncertainty modeling in the risk assessment and repair modeling are all crucial considerations to enhance the accuracy and confidence in bridge loss estimates. In this paper, a new methodology for seismic loss assessment of aging bridges is introduced based on the non‐homogeneous Poisson process. Statistical moments of seismic losses can be efficiently estimated, such as the expected value and variance. The approach is unique in its account for time‐varying seismic vulnerability, uncertainty in component repair, and the contribution of multiple correlated aging components. A representative case study is presented with two fundamentally distinct highway bridges to demonstrate the effects of corrosion deterioration of different bridge components on the seismic losses. Using the proposed model, a sensitivity study is also conducted to assess the effect of parameter variations on the expected seismic losses. The results reveal that the seismic losses estimated by explicitly considering the effects of deterioration of bridge components is significantly higher than that found by assuming time‐invariant structural reliability. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
利用双差定位方法对玉树地震序列2010年4月14日至10月31日间发生的ML≥1.0地震进行双差定位,得到1545个地震的重定位结果.综合分析地震双差定位结果和玉树地震序列中强地震震源机制解,发现玉树MS7.3地震发震构造由北西向和北东东向两条相交断层组成,主震发生在北西走向的甘孜—玉树断裂带上,5月29日的MS5.9余震序列发生在北东东走向的一条隐伏断裂上,两条断裂均接近直立.甘孜—玉树断裂是羌塘地块和巴彦喀拉地块的构造边界,由于羌塘地块和巴颜喀拉地块的差异运动使甘孜—玉树断裂强耦合段应力高度积累,在应变能超过岩石强度时破裂失稳发生了MS7.3地震.主震断层的左旋滑动导致北东东向断层的正应力减小,库伦应力增加,45天后触发了MS5.9余震序列的活动. 相似文献
18.
Critical issues in emergency management after a seismic event are assessing the functionality of the main infrastructures (hospitals, road network, etc.) and deciding on their usability just after the mainshock. The use of a pure analytical tool to assess the aftershock risk of a structure can be contrasted with the limited time available to make a decision about the usability of a structure. For this reason, this paper presents a method for evaluating post‐earthquake bridge practicability based on a rational combination of information derived from numerical analyses and in situ inspections. In particular, we propose an effective tool to speed up the decision‐making process involved in evaluating the seismic risk of mainshock‐damaged bridges in the context of aftershocks. The risk is calculated by combining the aftershock hazard using the Omori law and the fragility curves of the structure, which are calculated using the regression analysis of a sample of results obtained with data randomly generated by the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique and updated based on the results of in situ inspection. Different decision criteria regarding the practicability of bridges are discussed, and a new criterion is proposed. This tool was applied to an old highway RC viaduct. There are two main findings, including the high sensitivity to Bayesian updating (especially when the damage predicted by numerical analysis does not match the real damage) and the criteria used to decide when re‐open bridges to traffic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
A probabilistic framework for correlated seismic downtime and repair cost estimation of geo‐structures 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Abdollah Shafieezadeh Reginald DesRoches Glenn J. Rix Stuart D. Werner 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(5):739-757
An important component of probabilistic risk assessment methods is the development of models to quantify the direct consequences of damage to geo‐structural components for a given intensity of the hazard. This paper presents a general probabilistic framework for correlated repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures exposed to seismic hazards. The framework uses as input the results of nonlinear time‐history analysis of geo‐structures for the set of earthquake records that are representative of the seismic hazard models for the region of interest. The repair cost and downtime are estimated for individual earthquakes probabilistically considering the uncertainties associated with damage states. In addition, the formulation of the repair cost and downtime accounts for the reduction in the repair requirements as the number of damaged components in the given damage state increases. An analytical linear and two bilinear regression models are proposed for conditional correlated seismic repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures given the intensity measure. The proposed framework is demonstrated by developing seismic repair models of a typical pile‐supported wharf structure on the west coast of the United States. The presented framework is general and can be applied to other types of geo‐structures and hazards and can include other decision variables such as loss of life as well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Strong aftershocks have the potential to increase the damage state of the structures due to the damage accumulation. This paper investigates the damage spectra for the mainshock–aftershock sequence-type ground motions with Park–Ang damage index. A method of simulating the mainshock–aftershock sequence-type ground motions is proposed based on the modified form of Bath's law and NGA ground motion prediction equation. The damage spectra are computed using the recorded and simulated sequence-type ground motions, and the effects of period of vibration, strength reduction factor, site condition, seismic sequence, damping ratio and post-yield stiffness on damage spectra are studied statistically. The results indicate that the effect of aftershock on structural damage is significant and recorded sequence-type ground motions may underestimate the damage of long-period structures due to the incompleteness of dataset. A simplified equation is proposed to facilitate the application of damage spectra in the seismic practice for mainshock–aftershock sequence-type ground motions. 相似文献