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1.
This paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters(a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a =-1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of different time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey. 相似文献
2.
A hybrid optimization scheme, comprising a genetic algorithm in series with a local least-squares fit operator, is used for the inversion of weak and strong motion downhole array data obtained by the Kik-Net Strong Motion Network during the Mw7.0 Sanriku-Minami Earthquake. Inversion of low-amplitude waveforms is first employed for the estimation of low-strain dynamic soil properties at five stations. Successively, the frequency-dependent equivalent linear algorithm is used to predict the mainshock site response at these stations, by subjecting the best-fit elastic profiles to the downhole-recorded strong motion. Finally, inversion of the mainshock empirical site response is employed to extract the equivalent linear dynamic soil properties at the same locations. The inversion algorithm is shown to provide robust estimates of the linear and equivalent linear impedance profiles, while the attenuation structures are strongly affected by scattering effects in the near-surficial heterogeneous layers. The forward and inversely estimated equivalent linear shear wave velocity structures are found to be in very good agreement, illustrating that inversion of strong motion site response data may be used for the approximate assessment of nonlinear effects experienced by soil formations during strong motion events. 相似文献
3.
Seismic relocation,focal mechanism and crustal seismic anisotropy associated with the 2010 Yushu MS7.1 earthquake and its aftershocks 
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下载免费PDF全文 The 2010 Yushu MS7.1 earthquake occurred in Ganzi-Yushu fault, which is the south boundary of Bayan Har block. In this study, by using double difference algorithm, the locations of mainshock (33.13°N, 96.59°E, focal depth 10.22 km) and more than 600 aftershocks were obtained. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock and some aftershocks with MS>3.5 were estimated by jointly using broadband velocity waveforms from Global Seismic Network (GSN) and Qinghai Seismic Network as well. The focal mechanisms and relocation show that the strike of the fault plane is about 125° (WNW-ESE), and the mainshock is left-laterally strikeslip. The parameters of shear-wave splitting were obtained at seismic stations of YUS and L6304 by systematic analysis method of shear-wave splitting (SAM) method. Based on the parameters of shear-wave splitting and focal mechanism, the characteristics of stress field in seismic source zone were analyzed. The directions of polarization at stations YUS and L6304 are different. It is concluded that after the mainshock and the MS6.3 aftershock on April 14, the stress-field was changed. 相似文献
4.
The 2016 MW7.8 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake was the most complex event ever instrumentally recorded and geologically investigated, as it ruptured on more than 12 fault segments of various geometries. To study the mainshock rupture characteristics, geodetic methods like InSAR and GPS play an essential role in providing satisfactory spatial resolution. However, early strong aftershocks may cause extra ground deformation which bias the mainshock rupture inversion result. In this paper, we will focus on studying the MW 6.3 aftershock, which is the only M6+ thrust slip aftershock that occurred only 30 minutes after the Kaikoura mainshock. We will relocate the hypocenter of this event using the hypo2000 method, make the finite fault model (FFM) inversion for the detailed rupture processes and calculate the synthetic surface displacement to compare with the observed GPS data and figure out its influence on the mainshock study. Although we are not able to resolve the real ruptured fault of this event because of limited observation data, we infer that it is a west-ward dipping event of oblique slip mechanism, consistent with the subfault geometries of the Kaikoura mainshock. According to the inverted FFM, this event can generate 10–20 cm ground surface displacement and affect the ground displacement observation at nearby GPS stations. 相似文献
5.
F. R. Zúñiga C. Gutiérrez E. Nava J. Lermo M. Rodríguez R. Coyoli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,140(2):287-300
Aftershock activity following the April 25, 1989 (M
S
=6.9) earthquake near San Marcos, Guerrero, Mexico, was monitored by a temporary network installed twelve hours after the mainshock and remaining in operation for one week. Of the 350 events recorded by this temporary array, 103 were selected for further analysis in order to determine spatial characteristics of the aftershock activity. An aftershock area of approximately 780 km2 is delimited by the best quality locations. The area of highest aftershock density lies inside an area delimited by the aftershocks of the latest large event in the region in 1957 (M
S
=7.5) and it partially overlaps the zone of maximum intensity of the earlier 1907 (M
S
=7.7) shock. Aftershocks also appear to cluster close to the mainshock hypocenter. This clustering agrees with the zone of maximum slip during the mainshock, as previously determined from strong motion records. A low angle Benioff zone is defined by the aftershock hypocenters with a slight tendency for the slab to follow a subhorizontal trajectory after a 110 km distance from the trench axis, a feature which has been observed in the neighboring Guerrero Gap. A composite focal mechanism for events close to the mainshock which also coincides with the zone of largest aftershock density, indicates a thrust fault similar to the mainshock fault plane solution.The San Marcos event took place in an area which could be considered as a mature seismic gap. Due to the manner in which strain release has been observed to previously occur, the occurrence of a major event, overlapping both the neighboring Guerrero Gap and the San Marcos Gap segments of the Mexican thrust, cannot be overlooked. 相似文献
6.
This paper introduces and evaluates a methodology for the aftershock seismic assessment of buildings taking explicitly into account residual drift demands after the mainshock (i.e., postmainshock residual interstory drifts, RIDRo). The methodology is applied to a testbed four‐story steel moment‐resisting building designed with modern seismic design provisions when subjected to a set of near‐fault mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences that induce five levels of RIDRo. Once the postmainshock residual drift is induced to the building model, a postmainshock incremental dynamic analysis is performed under each aftershock to obtain its collapse capacity and its capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the capacity to reach or exceed a 2% residual drift). The effect of additional sources of stiffness and strength (i.e., interior gravity frames and slab contribution) and the polarity of the aftershocks are examined in this study. Results of this investigation show that the collapse potential under aftershocks strongly depends on the modeling approach (i.e., the aftershock collapse potential is modified when additional sources of lateral stiffness and strength are included in the analytical model). Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the aftershock capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the aftershock collapse capacity associated to a residual interstory drift that leads to an imminent demolition) is lower than that of the aftershock collapse capacity, which mean that this parameter should be a better measure of the building residual capacity against aftershocks. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
利用模板匹配方法对2015年11月23日青海省祁连县M_S5.2地震进行遗漏地震检测研究,由于主震后短时间内目录中遗漏事件较多,故对主震后1天的连续波形进行检测。主震后1天内青海测震台网记录到的余震个数(包括单台)共62个,选取主震后M_L1.0以上余震30个作为模板事件,通过匹配滤波的方式扫描出遗漏地震31个,约为台网目录给出的0.5倍。基于包络差峰值振幅与震级的线性关系估测检测事件的震级参数,最后将检测后的余震目录与台网余震目录在主震后1天内的最小完备震级进行对比分析,结果发现检测后最小完备震级从M_L1.2降到了M_L0.7,得到青海测震台网在祁连地区最小完整性震级为M_L0.7。 相似文献
8.
Ninfa Bennington Clifford Thurber Kurt L. Feigl Jessica Murray-Moraleda 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(10):1553-1565
Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock
slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with
the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the
curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large
patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement
in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained
solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast.
These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic
slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained
model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained
by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic
and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues. 相似文献
9.
有色溶解性有机物(CDOM)广泛存在于水体中,占溶解有机碳(DOC)10%～90%,其浓度影响水环境碳循环过程、污染物质迁移以及水生生物群落的结构和功能。为分析东北地区水库DOC碳循环情况,本文于2015—2020年对第二松花江流域典型水库白山水库和丰满水库进行5次现场观测和室内实验,在分析CDOM吸收特性的基础上,基于Landsat系列卫星利用波段比值法建立CDOM浓度反演模型(R2=0.82),根据实测值CDOM与DOC的强相关性(R2=0.78),进而估算水库DOC浓度。结果表明：(1)利用野外实测数据和Landsat系列卫星能够对东北内陆水库CDOM浓度进行良好反演,(2)2000—2020年白山水库和丰满水库年际CDOM和DOC浓度变化不大,在2010年之后表现出轻微上升趋势,CDOM浓度从支流和干流的汇入到主库区呈现逐渐减少趋势,(3)白山水库和丰满水库M值(CDOM在250和365 nm处吸收系数比值)和S275～295(CDOM在275～295 nm波段处的吸收光谱的斜率)较小、SUVA254<... 相似文献
10.
针对九寨沟MS7.0地震之后不同时间段的余震序列目录,利用推定最大余震震级,给出了实际最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,推定最大余震震级随主震后时间尺度的延长而趋于稳定,且该值与实际发生的最大余震的震级一致。需要强调的是,就九寨沟地震序列而言,当余震数据较为完备时,采用主震后较短时间段内（1～2天）的余震目录就可以较准确地估算出主震区域内可能发生的最大余震震级。实际上,主震后12h（0.5天）的余震数据已完全可以给出最大余震震级的有效下限。此外,计算中我们采用了里氏震级ML和面波震级MS的余震目录,结果显示,2种震级类型目录的估算结果完全一致,表明利用推定最大余震震级估算实际最大余震震级的方法不受震级类型的影响。据此,该最大余震震级快速评估方法可进一步推广应用于我国大陆地区中强震后强余震灾害分析评估中。目前的拟合技术也显示出随着测震技术的不断进步以及余震识别能力的提高,快速评估方法可以在主震后短时间（<1天）内准确地预测可能发生的最大余震震级。 相似文献
11.
Janský J. Zahradník J. Sokos E. Serpetsidaki A. Tselentis G.A. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2004,48(2):331-344
The western part of the Corinth Gulf attracts attention because of its seismically active complex fault system and considerable seismic hazard. Close to the city of Aegion, damaged by the M
L 6.2 earthquake of 1995, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred from February to May 2001. The sequence, comprising 171 events of M
L 1.8 to 4.7, was recorded by a short-period network of the University of Patras, PATNET. As most stations have single component-recording, the S-wave arrival time readings were scarce. A sub-set of 139 events was recorded by at least 5 stations, and in this study we limit ourselves just to that sub-set. A preliminary location is performed by a standard linearized kinematic approach, with several starting depths and crustal models. Then the mainshock is re-located, and finally it is used as a master event to locate the remaining events. The mainshock relocation is performed by a systematic 3D grid search, and the trade-off between depth and origin time is eliminated by a special procedure, the so-called station difference (SD) method. In the SD method, instead of inverting arrival times directly, their intra-station differences are employed. The station corrections, determined from the master event, are also used. As a result, the sub-set is imaged as a relatively tight cluster, occupying space of about 5 by 5 km horizontally and 10 km vertically, with the mainshock inside (at a depth of 7 km). The results should be interpreted with caution, mainly as regards the absolute depth position of the cluster. A more accurate location would require a local network with both P and S readings. 相似文献
12.
13.
中强地震发生后,地震检测因受到尾波的干扰可能会遗漏部分微震事件,影响地震目录的完备性。文章利用波形模板匹配方法对2020年新疆伽师MS6.4地震序列开展微震检测,相比原始的中国地震台网中心统一地震目录,新检测出1 756个微震事件,地震数量增加了1.3倍。基于检测后的余震目录计算最小完备震级为ML1.2,地震活动性b值为0.76,较原始目录的ML1.6和0.77均有所降低。通过伽师震源区地震序列活动特征分析,结果表明前震序列在主震前短时间内(前36小时)出现地震活动的密集增强,相应的b值显示为低值;主震发生后地震序列完备震级较高,随着时间的推移,完备震级缓慢降低并趋于稳定,并且呈周期性的波动。本研究提高了伽师震源区地震目录的完备性,为精细化描述该地区地震序列时空演化特征提供了关键数据基础。 相似文献
14.
The “earthquake nucleation” is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary
condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation
dΘ/dt=C/(t
f−t)
n
, the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of
the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake withM
S7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted
successfully if the coefficientr
2 attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than, one-half
the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock.
Contribution No. 95A0024, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.
This study is the "Eighth-Five" contract project ofSSB. 相似文献
15.
采用双差定位方法,利用中国地震台网的数据对2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震的余震序列进行了重新定位。截至2017年8月14日16时,共获得209个余震的重新定位结果。结果显示,余震主要呈近EW向或NWW向分布,余震区长约50km,宽约17km。余震分布在主震的西侧,推断此次地震单侧破裂。余震震源深度为1～25km,其中,震级较大余震深度为8～17km。精河地震序列的余震活动随时间呈起伏状衰减,震后2天内比较活跃,此后出现较快衰减。随时间推移,余震区呈现中西部衰减慢、东部衰减快的特点。此次地震震中距2011年精河5.0级地震震中21km,相比2011年精河地震,其震源更深,震级更大,但震源机制解相近,均为逆冲型。结合区域构造背景分析认为,库松木契克山前断裂为此次地震发震构造的可能性较大。 相似文献
16.
17.
Long-term earthquake prediction in the Aegean area based on a time and magnitude predictable model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E) is separated into 76 shallow and intermediate depth seismogenic sources. For 74 of these sources intervent times for strong mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data. These times have been used to determine the following empirical relations: $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.24M_{\min } + 0.25M_p - 0.36\log \dot M_0 + 7.36 \hfill \\ M_f = 1.04M_{\min } - 0.31M_p + 0.28\log \dot M_0 - 4.85 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereT 1 is the interevent time, measured in years,M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M f the magnitude of the following mainshock, \(\dot M_0 \) the moment rate in each source per year. A multiple correlation coefficient equal to 0.74 and a standard deviation equal to 0.18 for the first of these relations were calculated. The corresponding quantities for the second of these relations are 0.91 and 0.22. On the basis of the first of these relations and taking into consideration the time of occurence and the magnitude of the last mainshock, the probabilities for the occurrence of mainshocks in each seismogenic source of this region during the decade 1993–2002 are determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock. 相似文献
18.
19.
B. C. Papazachos E. E. Papadimitriou G. F. Karakaisis D. G. Panagiotopoulos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):173-217
Investigation of the time-dependent seismicity in 274 seismogenic regions of the entire continental fracture system indicates that strong shallow earthquakes in each region exhibit short as well as intermediate term time clustering (duration extending to several years) which follow a power-law time distribution. Mainshocks, however (interevent times of the order of decades), show a quasiperiodic behaviour and follow the ‘regional time and magnitude predictable seismicity model’. This model is expressed by the following formulas $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.19 M_{\min } + 0.33 M_p - 0.39 \log m_0 + q \hfill \\ M_f = 0.73 M_{\min } - 0.28 M_p + 0.40 \log m_0 + m \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ which relate the interevent time,T t (in years), and the surface wave magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock: with the magnitude,M min, of the smallest mainshock considered, the magnitude,M p , of the preceded mainshock and the moment rate,m 0 (in dyn.cm.yr?1), in a seismogenic region. The values of the parametersq andm vary from area to area. The basic properties of this model are described and problems related to its physical significance are discussed. The first of these relations, in combination with the hypothesis that the ratioT/T t , whereT is the observed interevent time, follows a lognormal distribution, has been used to calculate the probability for the occurrence of the next very large mainshock (M s ≥7.0) during the decade 1993–2002 in each of the 141 seismogenic regions in which the circum-Pacific convergent belt has been separated. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock in each of the regions. 相似文献
20.
Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy) 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Silvia Barbetta Tommaso Moramarco Luca Brocca Marco Franchini Florisa Melone 《水文研究》2014,28(3):729-743
This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution qfor between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution qfor which, in turn, is set up by associating to each qfor the qopt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the qfor values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the qopt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for qfor is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of qfor made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献