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1.
Tsunamis have occurred in Canada due to earthquakes, landslides, and a large chemical explosion. The Pacific coast is at greatest risk from tsunamis because of the high incidence of earthquakes and landslides in that region. The most destructive historical tsunamis, however, have been in Atlantic Canada – one in 1917 in Halifax Harbour, which was triggered by a catastrophic explosion on a munitions ship, and another in 1929 in Newfoundland, caused by an earthquake-triggered landslide at the edge of the Grand Banks. The tsunami risk along Canada's Arctic coast and along the shores of the Great Lakes is low in comparison to that of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk in Canada is low because destructive tsunamis are rare events.  相似文献   

2.
The National Geophysical Data Center and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology provide integrated access to historical tsunami event, deposit, and proxy data. Historical events are important for understanding the frequency and intensity of relatively recent tsunamis. Deposit data collected during post-tsunami field surveys provide information on tsunami erosion, sedimentation, flow depths, inundation, and run-up. Deposit data from prehistoric tsunami events extend the record to pre-recorded times, constrain tsunami recurrence intervals, and estimate the minimum magnitude of tsunami inundation. Proxies indicate that an event capable of producing a tsunami occurred, but are not direct evidence of a tsunami. All of these data are used to develop tsunami hazard assessments, provide guidance to warning centers, validate models, inform community preparedness efforts, and educate the public about tsunami risks.  相似文献   

3.
The purpose of this paper is to examine factorsinfluencing numerical simulations of tsunamis, andtheir implications for hazard mitigation. We focus ona specific finite element hydrodynamic model, chosenfor its role in the systematic development ofinundation maps for regions threatened primarily byCascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunamis. However, inpart for generality and in part because of poorhistorical records for CSZ events, we discuss here theperformance of the model in the context of betterdocumented past events with epicenters locatedelsewhere: the July 12, 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki andthe March 28, 1964 Alaska tsunamis. Our analysisincludes the influence of grid refinement,interactions between tides and tsunamis, artificialenergy loss, and numerical parameterization. We showthat while the ability exists to reproduce pastevents, limitations remain in the modeling processthat should be accounted for in translating modelingresults into information for tsunami mitigation andresponse.  相似文献   

4.
A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.  相似文献   

5.
The first 7 years of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) have had a significant positive impact on operations of the Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). As a result of its seismic project, the amount and quality of real-time seismic data flowing into PTWC has increased dramatically, enabling more rapid, accurate, and detailed analyses of seismic events with tsunamigenic potential. Its tsunameter project is now providing real-time tsunameter data from seven strategic locations in the deep ocean to more accurately measure tsunami waves as they propagate from likely source regions toward shorelines at risk. These data have already been used operationally to help evaluate potential tsunami threats. A new type of tsunami run-up gauge has been deployed in Hawaii to more rapidly assess local tsunamis. Lastly, numerical modeling of tsunamis done with support from the NTHMP is beginning to provide tools for real-time tsunami forecasting that should reduce the incidence of unnecessary warnings and provide more accurate forecasts for destructive tsunamis.  相似文献   

6.
Submarine landslides can generate local tsunamis with high run-ups, posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities. Both ancient (giant Storegga slide off Norwegian coast, 8200 B. P.) and recent (Papua New Guinea, 1998) events show high potential danger of tsunamigenic landslides and the importance of mitigation efforts. This contribution presents newly discovered landslides 70 km off Padang (Western Sumatra, Indonesia) based on recent bathymetry measurements. This highly populated city with over 750,000 inhabitants exhibits high tsunami vulnerability due to its very low elevation. We model tsunamis that might have been induced by the detected landslide events. Estimations of run-up heights extrapolated from offshore tsunami amplitudes for Padang and other locations in the northern Mentawai fore-arc basin yield maximum values of about 3 m. We also provide a systematic parametric study of landslide-induced tsunamis, which allows us to distinguish potentially dangerous scenarios for Padang. Inside the fore-arc basin, scenarios involving volumes of 0.5–25 km³ could endanger Padang. Apart from slide volume, the hazard distribution mainly depends on three landslide parameters: distance to Padang, water depth in the generation region, and slide direction.  相似文献   

7.
We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.  相似文献   

8.
Tsunamis can represent a significant risk to the population and cause huge economic damage in many costal regions. In order to be able to identify risk hot spots and implement targeted risk reduction measures, decision makers need to have a clear picture of the risk situation in their countries or regions. This work reviews existing approaches for tsunami risk assessment and recommends a five-step process for assessing tsunami risk. As a case study, a qualitative risk assessment for a worst-case tsunami scenario was carried out to understand the tsunami risk to the population in Cádiz. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of the tsunami hazard input parameters was performed as a strong influence of the variability of the input parameters on the resultant tsunami hazard and risk zonation maps was observed. The study shows that regardless of the assumptions made a non-negligible tsunami risk to Cádiz exists.  相似文献   

9.
海啸作为五大海洋自然灾害之一,严重威胁着人类生命财产安全。近些年来,国内外学者对地震海啸进行了大量研究,主要针对海啸的生成、传播、爬高和淹没的数值模拟,以及古海啸沉积物进行研究,但是对于海啸地震震源机制的研究还比较欠缺,尤其是缺乏对震级小于6.5的海啸地震的研究。针对我国的地震海啸研究现状,强调震级小于6.5地震引发海啸的问题不容忽视。本文归纳整理了全球766次地震海啸,利用三角图分类基本法则对海啸地震震源机制解进行分类,并对其中341个发生在1976年后的海啸地震进行震源机制解分析,对其中633次海啸浪高进行统计学方法分析研究。本文认为逆冲型、正断型、走滑型和奇异型机制地震均能引发海啸,逆冲型地震引发的海啸占比最大,震级小于6.5级地震引发的海啸的浪高也有高达10 m的情况,也能产生巨大破坏性。逆冲型、正断型、奇异型地震可直接引起海底地形垂向变化,进而引发海啸,而走滑型地震引发海啸则可能有两种原因,一种是走滑型地震并非纯走滑型而是带有正断或逆冲分量从而引发海啸,另外一种是走滑型地震引发海底滑坡导致海底地形变化进而产生海啸。从海啸地震震源深度分析,能产生海啸的地震震源深度97%以上都是浅源地震,主要集中在30 km深度以内,但是也有中深源地震海啸。本文综合海啸地震的震源特点、我国地理位置以及以往海啸发生的情况,认为未来我国沿海地区威胁性的地震海啸主要集中在马尼拉海沟和台湾海峡区域,在今后海啸预警方面需要格外重视这些区域,通过建立完善海啸预警系统来减少损失。  相似文献   

10.
An accurate assessment of tsunami risk of a region requires a credible record of past tsunami events in the region. Existing surveys on historical tsunamis of South China have not presented a consistent list of events. The current report makes reference to original historical literature and evaluates the validity of suspected tsunami events in published surveys. A set of refined historical data for further investigation of the tsunami hazard in the region was produced. Only two events have been identified as credible reports of tsunami in the current study. Some events previously considered as tsunami, including a few with great reported casualties, are found to be unsubstantiable.  相似文献   

11.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

12.
Geological evidence of severe tsunami inundation has been discovered in northern Japan. In the dune fields of Shimokita, in northernmost Tohoku, we have found two distinctive sand layers that are tsunami deposits. The run-up height of >20 m and inland inundation of at least 1.4 km are notably larger than any known historical case in Japan. The tsunami-genic earthquake that resulted in these deposits is thought to have taken place in the Kuril Forearc-Trench system nearly 700 years ago. The recurrence interval of major tsunamis originating in the Kuril subduction zone is about 400 years. Given that the most recent unusually large earthquake took place in AD 1611 (corresponding to the Keicho earthquake tsunami), the findings presented here increase the potential and hazard for an outsized tsunami striking the Pacific coast of northern Japan.  相似文献   

13.
Most tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, with secondary, less frequent, mechanisms including subaerial and submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions and (extra‐terrestrial) bolide impacts. Different mechanisms generate tsunamis with different magnitudes, travel distances and impacts. Submarine landslides had been mapped and studied for decades but records suggested that only a few had generated tsunamis, and that these were minor. It was not until 1998, when a slump on the seabed offshore of northern Papua New Guinea caused a tsunami wave up to 15 m high that killed over 2200 people, was the significance of submarine landslides in tsunami generation realised. A combination of new (multibeam) seabed mapping technology and the development of improved numerical tsunami models for tsunami generation led to the recognition of the landslide tsunami mechanism of the PNG event. As a result the hazard from submarine landslides in tsunami generation is now recognized and better understood. Extensive mapping of ocean margins reveals that submarine landslides are common. Although many of these probably generated tsunamis, few have been identified, so their hazard remains uncertain. This article describes how the hazard from submarine landslide tsunamis was first recognized, how submarine landslides generate tsunamis, why they were previously discounted as a major hazard, and their potential hazards. An important aspect of the recognition of the tsunami hazard from submarine landslides has been the significance of geology, which has contributed to a subject previously dominated by seismologists.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.  相似文献   

16.
Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together.  相似文献   

17.
The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai‘i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes—as forecast by two independent tsunami models—originate in the Eastern Aleutian Islands. This analysis is the basis for creating an extreme tsunami evacuation zone, updating prior zones based only on historical tsunami inundation. We first validate the methodology by corroborating that the largest historical tsunami in 1946 is consistent with the seismologically determined earthquake source and observed historical tsunami amplitudes in Hawai‘i. Using prior source characteristics of Mw 9 earthquakes (fault area, slip, and distribution), we analyze parametrically the range of Aleutian–Alaska earthquake sources that produce the most extreme tsunami events in Hawai‘i. Key findings include: (1) An Mw 8.6 ± 0.1 1946 Aleutian earthquake source fits Hawai‘i tsunami run-up/inundation observations, (2) for the 40 scenarios considered here, maximal tsunami inundations everywhere in the Hawaiian Islands cannot be generated by a single large earthquake, (3) depending on location, the largest inundations may occur for either earthquakes with the largest slip at the trench, or those with broad faulting over an extended area, (4) these extremes are shown to correlate with the frequency content (wavelength) of the tsunami, (5) highly variable slip along the fault strike has only a minor influence on inundation at these tele-tsunami distances, and (6) for a given maximum average fault slip, increasing the fault area does not generally produce greater run-up, as the additional wave energy enhances longer wavelengths, with a modest effect on inundation.  相似文献   

18.
Catastrophic tsunami events like those occurred in Papua New Guinea in 1998, Sumatra in 2004 and Japan in 2011, attracted the attention of the scientific community and promoted the development of different tools for assessing tsunami hazard. A preliminary step towards this goal is the knowledge of the events which might affect a specific coastal zone. In this context, we propose a method to identify the tsunami events possibly occurring in areas characterized by scarce data and a non-conservative environment. Accordingly, we propose different indices to summarize the knowledge on tsunami triggering mechanisms (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions), the characteristics of those mechanisms (magnitude of earthquakes, volume of landslide, Volcanic Explosivity Index) and tsunami features (water height, run-up, wave amplitude, propagation time). This knowledge, considered over a wider area than that of interest, allows for a paramount vision of possible hazardous events that could affect a particular coastal zone. Moreover, the tsunami simulation data and the analysis of potentially tsunamigenic slides which occurred on the Campania continental margins were also considered in the analysis. We focused our attention on Napoli megacity, because the high population density (about 1 million of people live on a territory of 117 km2), together with the presence of active volcanic areas (Ischia, Somma-Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei), make this city potentially exposed to tsunami risk. The main outcome of such an approach shows that in the near field a tsunami amplitude varying from a few centimetres (30–40 cm) to some metres (1–4 m) might be expected at the coastline if the tsunami event was triggered by volcanic activity, whereas no relevant tsunami event should be expected given the peculiar seismicity of the Neapolitan volcanic areas, with earthquakes rarely exceeding 4 Mw, if any possible cascade effects are overlooked. A morphometric analysis of high-resolution bathymetry collected between Ventotene Island and the Gulf of Salerno has shown that the submarine southern sectors of the Ischia Island and the Sorrento Peninsula are characterized by a high density of landslide scars, being thus a potential source area of landslide-generated tsunamis. However, despite the susceptibility of these areas to recurrent slope failures, only four submarine landslide scars were found to be potentially tsunamigenic with estimated tsunami amplitude of few metres at the coastline as predicted by coupling slide morphometry with tsunami amplitude equations. Concerning the tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Western Mediterranean, only those triggered by high magnitude events (value ≥ 6–7 Mw) might affect the city of Napoli with an amplitude not exceeding 0.5 m, in about 30′.  相似文献   

19.
Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.  相似文献   

20.
We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.  相似文献   

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