共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
我国短期气候预测业务系统 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10
中国第一代短期气候监测、预测、评价和服务业务系统主要由6个部分组成：数据库、动力气候模式系统、气候监测诊断系统、短期气候预测系统、气候影响评价系统与气候应用服务系统。在建立短期气候业务系统过程中，主要获得了三方面的成果：第一，揭示出影响中国气候异常的最强气候信号是厄尔尼诺事件、高原积雪和季风；第二，发展并建立了复杂的全球与区域动力气候模式预测系统，该系统包括T63L16全球大气环流模式、高分辨率区域气候模式、T63L30全球海洋模式和海冰模式、太平洋和印度洋高分辨率海洋模式和厄尔尼诺预测模式；第三，在高性能计算机和网络的支持下建立了完整的业务应用系统，不仅可提供短期气候预测信息，而且可以快速、客观、准确地给出气候变化对水资源、农业、林业、交通、电力、重大工程等国民经济重要部门和关键地区的影响，及时为决策部门提供决策服务。1998年开始应用以来，国家和大区两级整体预报水平比“九五”以前20年平均提高了6％～10％。但对区域性强洪涝事件的预报能力偏低，尚需进一步提高。 相似文献
2.
主要概述了中国科学院大气物理研究所近些年来在气候动力学与气候预测理论研究领域的若干重要研究进展.通过对气候系统变化多尺度特征及其动力学的分析和研究,提出了一系列气候系统动力学理论,并在此基础上提出了适合于我国季风气候特点的气候预测理论和方法,在国际上率先开展了跨季度数值气候预测,进一步建立了先进、完善的短期数值气候预测系统,并应用于我国夏季旱涝预测业务.这些工作既带有极大的基础性意义,同时也具有巨大的应用价值,为我国大气科学及气候科学乃至环境科学的研究提供了重要工具. 相似文献
3.
干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
从干旱半干旱区气候的时空变化特征、陆气相互作用的观测试验以及气候变化的动力学机制等几个方面系统总结了近年来国内外干旱半干旱区气候变化的最新研究进展,指出目前干旱半干旱区气候变化研究以特定区域研究为主,缺乏对全球不同区域干旱半干旱区气候变化时空关联的系统性归纳研究,且野外观测试验持续时间较短,这在很大程度上限制了对干旱半干旱区气候变化机理的认识和陆面过程模式的发展。针对这些问题,从资料获取、资料分析及数值模拟3个方面提出未来干旱半干旱区气候变化研究的主要方向。 相似文献
4.
地球系统中的大气圈、水圈、冰雪圈、岩石圈和生物圈构成了气候系统, 气候系统中不同圈层之间的相互作用决定了气候的自然变化。由于人类活动的日益加剧, 对气候系统已经产生了显著影响。气候的自然变化和人类活动导致的气候变化对社会经济的发展以及人民生活的影响日益加大, 并涉及到国家安全、环境外交和可持续发展等一系列重大问题。要认识气候变化及其强迫因素、预测未来气候变化, 最基础的工作是建立针对气候目的涉及到气候系统五大圈层的综合气候观测系统, 以获取所需的高质量资料和相关产品, 提供气候系统变化的详细信息。该文回顾了气候观测系统设计在中国的发展以及中国气象科学研究院在组织设计中国气候观测系统中的作用, 并指出了在建立我国气候观测系统中存在的一些需要改进的方面。在对气候观测系统进行分析的基础上, 指出了与建立气候观测系统相关的10个方面的关键问题, 这些问题包括:气候观测系统的科学需求、气候观测系统的代表性、全面性、规范性、对气候预测和预估及模式发展的支撑性、多学科应用性、社会经济性、资料开放共享性以及气候系统资料的同化再分析和历史资料的抢救。 相似文献
5.
Over the years, the Hong Kong Observatory has carried out scientific studies to evaluate the observed climate trends and project the future climate in Hong Kong. Analysis of the meteorological observations at the observatory's headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui since 1885 reveals that the temperature rise in Hong Kong during the past 124 years is in accord with the global rising trend. The accelerated rising trend in the mean temperature in last few decades may be attributed to the anthropogenic influences, especially urbanization. A similar increasing trend is also observed for rainfall. Other observations such as increasing cloud amount and decreasing total global solar radiation are all consistent with the global trend. Studies of past occurrences of extreme temperature and rainfall have also been carried out. The results indicate that cold episodes have become rarer while very hot days and heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. The observatory also makes use of the data from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and employs statistical downscaling techniques to carry out projections of temperature and precipitation in the 21st century. It is found that the rise in temperature in Hong Kong will be slightly higher than the global mean in the 21st century. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong is also expected to rise by the end of the 21st century, so is its year-to-year variability. 相似文献
6.
基于云南省、贵州省和广西壮族自治区共163个站点气候资料和主要经济作物产地分布数据,应用作物生态学和农业气象学原理,分析云南气候特征与经济作物种植的气候适宜性关系。结果表明,受季风气候、高原山地气候、低纬气候的影响,云南干湿季节分明、夏季气温偏低、春秋季长、气温日较差大、干季日照较多,具有气候区域性和层次性差异特点,由此云南各气候带的经济作物种植适宜性也不同,其中,低纬高原气候最适宜云南烤烟和滇中花卉产业发展,低纬高原南亚热带季风气候区的滇西南适宜种植喜湿润、要求强光少的南亚热带深根类作物,高原山地气候叠加季风气候带则适宜发展多种(类)经济作物,然而高原气候和季风气候也给云南经济作物种植带来夏秋光热欠足、冬春干旱和短时段低温冷害的不利影响。 相似文献
7.
旅游业是贵州经济发展的重要支柱产业。气候资源作为不可或缺的一种旅游资源,既造就了贵州多彩多姿的自然风光和人文景观,又以“冬无严寒、夏无酷暑”的气候优势,极大地增加了贵州旅游的吸引力,尤其是在“气象+旅游”模式下,形成了由避暑旅游辐射开来的全省生态旅游“集团化”品牌,对贵州地方经济、社会发展、生态建设和乡村振兴产生极大的推动作用。文章在分析贵州气候优势条件的基础上,研究探讨了旅游气候品牌效应,提出在继续深挖夏季气候优势,持续打造避暑旅游品牌的前提下,应根据贵州立体气候特征及贵州独具特色的喀斯特地域地貌,深入发掘贵州冬季避寒、康养、低纬度地区冬季赏雪观景等气候旅游资源,为打造贵州全域旅游、全时旅游品牌提供参考。 相似文献
8.
中国柯本气候分类 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中国734个气象站点1957-2016年的气温和降水量数据,结合柯本气候分类,采用薄板样条插值法,研究中国柯本气候分类的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明：1957-2016年中国包括5个气候带,其中赤道气候带（0.17%）包括热带季风和热带疏林草原气候,干旱气候带（41.38%）包括冷性沙漠和冷性草原气候,暖温气候带（25.53%）包括热夏冬干暖温、温夏冬干暖温、热夏常湿暖温以及温夏常湿暖温气候类型,冷温气候带（28.44%）包括热夏冬干冷温、温夏冬干冷温、冷夏冬干冷温、热夏常湿冷温、温夏常湿冷温以及冷夏常湿冷温气候类型,极地气候带（4.48%）仅有苔原气候。在此60 a,气候变化主要体现在冷温气候带向干燥气候带和暖温气候带的转移,以及冷温气候带中冷夏向温夏的转移和温夏向热夏的转移。 相似文献
9.
Florent BRIENT 《大气科学进展》2020,37(1):1-15
Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates. 相似文献
10.
11.
从地球系统的观点看气候突变 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
在地球的气候史中,经历了许多次气候突变事件。这些突变对地球表层系统的演变与进化产生了巨大影响。随着全球气候变暖的持续发展,人类赖以生存的气候环境正在经历重大变化。如何科学地理解和认识这些变化,尤其是气候突变。是人类寻求对策,应对气候变化,保护自己持续发展的科学基础。文中从地球系统的角度对气候突变的科学问题进行了探讨,认为对气候突变的研究不应仅局限于大气圈,而应该对地球系统的整体变化进行研究。 相似文献
12.
１９９４年，我国南北大部降水比较丰沛，中部地区降水偏少，北方春末夏初旱、秋旱及江淮流哉伏旱范围较大，部分地区旱情严重。汛期，我国出现南北两条明显多雨带，桂、粤、湘及辽、吉等省（区）部分地区发生严重洪涝灾害。全国大部地区气温偏高，低温冻害轻，东北初霜明显偏晚，对农业生产十分有利；夏季，大部地区出现罕见持续高温。登陆台风明显偏多，危害重，其中浙江受灾最重。风雹灾害轻。总的来看，１９９４年气候年景为一般 相似文献
13.
1993年我国天气气候特点 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
１９９３年，我国大部地区降水较丰沛。干旱一般持续时间不长，灾情偏轻，旱区主要集中在北方。汛期持续性大范围暴雨天气少，各大江河水势较平稳，未发生大范围洪涝，但局地性暴雨洪涝较多，雨涝区主要集中在南方，粤，湘，赣，苏，鲁等部分地区涝灾较重。全国大部地区春，夏季温光条件较差，秋季温光条件较好，有７个台风和热带风暴在我国登陆，其个数与多年平均数相同；冰雹灾害接近常年。总的来年，１９９３年气候年景为一般偏好 相似文献
14.
依据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第5次评估报告以及国内相关科学研究成果,使用最新的观测资料凝练了对全球气候变化的有关认识;从极端天气气候事件和气候承载力角度,分析了气候变化给我国带来的气候风险。研究发现:1961—2015年我国平均高温日数增加了28.4%,暴雨日数增加了8.2%。21世纪以来,登陆我国热带气旋的强度明显增加。在全球气候变暖的背景下,我国气候承载力将发生明显变化,未来面临的气候风险将加大。因此,保障我国气候安全,需要科学认识气候,提高气候风险意识; 主动适应气候,提高应对极端事件能力;努力保护气候,减缓气候变化的影响。 相似文献
15.
实况海温强迫的CCM3模式对中国区域气候的模拟能力 总被引：21，自引：4，他引：17
使用NCAR/CCM3全球环流模式进行了5个集合19年(1979～1997)时间长度的观测海温强迫的AMIP2试验,对结果的中国区域部分进行了重点分析.首先给出了模式对中国地区基本气候态的模拟,表明模式对这些区域的气温有较好的模拟效果,对降水的模拟效果则比较差.随后,考察了模式对历年中国汛期降水和气温的模拟预测,结果表明,模式对中国整体降水的模拟预测能力较差,但分地区看,则在长江流域地区的效果较好;模式对中国汛期气温有较好的模拟能力,尤其是在东部的长江以北地区等. 相似文献
16.
基于健康中国战略实施、应对气候变化和人口老龄化的现实需求,气象与健康交叉融合发展问题倍受关注。首先从哲学思想和医学理论的引领、生物气象学发展对理论形成的贡献、殊途切入内涵趋同的探索过程等方面就其发展历程进行了梳理与理性提升；然后,就气象与健康交叉学科发展中、尤其是作者团队新探究所提出的部分新概念进行了初步阐释,旨在抛砖引玉、吸引更多同行学者互动,促进此新兴交叉学科发展,更好地服务于全民大健康需求。 相似文献
17.
Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century. 相似文献
18.
Equity has been at the core of the global climate debate since its inception over two decades ago, yet the current negotiations toward an international climate agreement in 2015 provide a new and critical opportunity to make forward progress on the difficult web of equity issues. These negotiations and the discussions about equity are taking place in a context that has shifted: all countries will be covered under a new agreement; growing climate impacts are being felt, especially by the most vulnerable; and there is an emergence of new institutions and increasing complexity in the international climate regime. Innovative thinking on equity, including which countries should take action and how, is therefore essential to finalizing an agreement by 2015. A broader, deeper, and more holistic view of equity is necessary, one that sees equity as a multi-dimensional challenge to be solved across all the facets of the international climate process.Policy relevanceThis article is relevant to policy makers following the development of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform as it prepares the way for a new agreement in 2015. The article focuses specifically on the issues most relevant to the debate around equity in the negotiations and how that debate is evolving with the expansion of the UNFCCC. It explains the current state of the negotiations and what issues are on the negotiating table, including the fact that negotiations on equity are now much broader than the mitigation commitments, to include the possible ‘equity reference framework’, concerns relating to adaptation and loss and damage, and the need for ambition in terms of mitigation and finance support. 相似文献
19.
Lindsey Jones Clara Champalle Sabrina Chesterman Laura Cramer Todd A. Crane 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):551-572
We carry out a structured review of the peer-reviewed literature to assess the factors that constrain and enable the uptake of long-term climate information in a wide range of sectoral investment and planning decisions. Common applications of long-term climate information are shown to relate to urban planning and infrastructure, as well as flood and coastal management. Analysis of the identified literature highlights five categories of constraints: disconnection between users and producers of climate information, limitations of climate information, financial and technical constraints, political economy and institutional constraints and finally psycho-social constraints. Five categories of enablers to the uptake of long-term climate information in decision-making are also identified: collaboration and bridge work, increased accessibility of climate information, improvement in the underlying science, institutional reform and windows of opportunity for building trust.Policy relevanceOur review suggests that stand-alone interventions aimed at promoting the uptake of climate information into decision-making are unlikely to succeed without genuine and sustained relationships between producers and users. We also highlight that not every decision requires consideration of long-term climate information for successful outcomes to be achieved. This is particularly the case in the context of developing countries, where the immediacy of development challenges means that decision makers often prioritize short-term interventions. Care should therefore be taken to ensure that information is targeted towards investments and planning decisions that are relevant to longer-term timescales. 相似文献
20.
气候条件是一个地区是否适宜茶树生长以及茶叶品质优劣的决定因素之一。为揭示重庆市名优茶产品巴南银针的主产区茶树生长的气候优势,本文以巴南银针茶叶产区为研究对象,基于气候条件与气象灾害发生情况统计,分析茶叶种植区气候可行性;综合气象因子对茶树生长与品质形成的影响,分析春茶生长期影响茶树生长与茶叶品质形成的主要气象因子特点;基于气候适宜度理论以及气候品质评价模型,定量分析巴南银针茶叶产区茶叶生长的气候适宜性以及气候品质等级。结果表明:巴南银针茶叶产区热量条件优越,无早春冻害,能够确保茶树安全越冬以及春茶的早采高产;春茶生长期,从一芽一叶开采期开始计算,气候适宜度平均值0.75,并维持在较高水平,气候条件适宜茶树的种植以及茶叶生产;春茶气候品质等级维持在2级到1级,气候条件利于春茶品质成分积累,保证了优质茶的生产。 相似文献