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1.
This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part. The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at certain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M S ～ 8 and a recurrence period of T ≈ 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for sources of lesser extent (<50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M S ～ 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years. 相似文献
2.
3.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
4.
The linear model of long waves is used for the evaluation of the parameters of tsunami waves along the South Coast of Crimea,
in the near-Kerch zone, and near the northeast coast of the Black Sea. Our numerical investigations are carried out for 24
probable locations of the elliptic zones of tsunami generation over the continental slope of the basin. The amplitude characteristics
of tsunamis are computed for 27 sites of the Black-Sea coast. It is shown that significant strengthening of tsunami waves
is possible in the course of their propagation toward the coast. The highest waves are formed at the sites of the coast closest
to the seismic source. The dependence of the intensity of tsunami waves along the Black-Sea coast on the location of the seismic
source and its magnitude is analyzed. 相似文献
5.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(6):363-369
We perform the numerical analysis of the propagation of tsunamis in the Black Sea from the zones of seismic generation located
to the south of the Crimea and in the northwest part of the sea. It is shown that the tsunamis induced by earthquakes in the
Crimean seismic zone are entrapped by the nearest part of the shelf and do not result in noticeable oscillations of level
in the northwest part of the sea. This enables us to explain the absence of manifestations of tsunamis in 1927, 1939, and
1966 near Odessa. The tsunami waves generated by earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea are characterized by the directivity
of their propagation. The wave height is maximum in the areas corresponding to the north and east directions of propagation.
Hence, the north coast of the sea and the Kalamit Bay (Crimean Peninsula) are characterized by elevated tsunami hazard for
earthquakes occurring in the northwest part of the Black Sea.
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Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 46–53, November–December, 2005. 相似文献
6.
渤海海域地震海啸灾害概率性风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
渤海作为我国地震活动性最为活跃的近海,其地震海啸风险不可忽视。本文应用概率性海啸风险评估方法对渤海周边区域的海啸风险进行评估。根据历史地震目录建立了渤海区域的震级-频率关系,基于蒙特卡洛算法随机生成了一套10万年的地震目录,最终通过对地震事件的海啸数值模拟及最大波幅的统计分析给出了环渤海区域典型重现期的最大波幅分布以及重点城市的海啸波幅曲线。评估结果表明,渤海地区海啸风险主要集中在渤海湾和莱州湾周边,波幅可达到1~3 m,辽东湾地区海啸风险较低。 相似文献
7.
浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。 相似文献
8.
The ∼8.15 ka Storegga submarine slide was a large (∼3000 km3), tsunamigenic slide off the coast of Norway. The resulting tsunami had run-up heights of around 10–20 m on the Norwegian coast, over 12 m in Shetland, 3–6 m on the Scottish mainland coast and reached as far as Greenland. Accurate numerical simulations of Storegga require high spatial resolution near the coasts, particularly near tsunami run-up observations, and also in the slide region. However, as the computational domain must span the whole of the Norwegian-Greenland sea, employing uniformly high spatial resolution is computationally prohibitive. To overcome this problem, we present a multiscale numerical model of the Storegga slide-generated tsunami where spatial resolution varies from 500 m to 50 km across the entire Norwegian-Greenland sea domain to optimally resolve the slide region, important coastlines and bathymetric changes. We compare results from our multiscale model to previous results using constant-resolution models and show that accounting for changes in bathymetry since 8.15 ka, neglected in previous numerical studies of the Storegga slide-tsunami, improves the agreement between the model and inferred run-up heights in specific locations, especially in the Shetlands, where maximum run-up height increased from 8 m (modern bathymetry) to 13 m (palaeobathymetry). By tracking the Storegga tsunami as far south as the southern North sea, we also found that wave heights were high enough to inundate Doggerland, an island in the southern North Sea prior to sea level rise over the last 8 ka. 相似文献
9.
The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, not only affected the Bay of Bengal coast of India but also part of the Arabian Sea coast of India. In particular, the tsunami caused loss of life and heavy damage on some parts of the Kerala coast in southwest India. The tsunami traveled west, south of Sri Lanka, and some of the tsunami energy was diffracted around Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India and moved northward into the Arabian Sea. However, tsunami, being a long gravity wave with a wave length of a few hundred kilometers, has to take a wide turn. In that process, it missed the very southern part of the Kerala coast and did not achieve large amplitudes there. However, further north, the tsunami achieved amplitudes of upto 5 m and caused loss of life and significant damage. Here we identify the physical oceanographic processes that were responsible for selective amplification of the tsunami in certain locations. 相似文献
10.
The paper analyses results of the numerical simulation of upwelling events in the north-western part of the Black Sea, mostly
near the South Crimea. The calculations were performed using a numerical model based on primitive hydrodynamics equations.
Emphasis is laid on the case when a salinity front simulating the Black Sea rim current is prescribed in the initial conditions.
The interaction of the Black Sea rim current's stream with the coastline and bottom topography leads to the development of
an upwelling near the Crimea's coast, even in the absence of wind forcing. The paper discusses the structure of the three-dimensional
circulation of waters in the shelf area of the NW Black Sea. Numerical modelling results are matched up with the satellite
data obtained by the HRPT receiving station.
Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
11.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider
ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m.
It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the
coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic
zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of
the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close
to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In
the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the
initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of
generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the
west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more
pronounced. 相似文献
12.
海啸波传播的线性和非线性特征及近海陆架效应影响的数值研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
浅水方程被广泛应用于海啸预警报业务及研究,而针对线性浅水方程与非线性浅水方程在不同海区水深地形条件下的适用范围、计算效率问题是海啸研究人员急需了解的。本文应用基于浅水方程的海啸数值预报模型就海啸波在南海、东海传播的线性、非线性特征以及陆架对其传播之影响进行了数值分析研究。海啸波在深水的传播表征为强线性特征,此时线性系统对海啸波幅的模拟计算具有较高的精度和效率,而弱的非线性特征及弱的色散特征对海啸波幅的预报影响甚微,可以忽略不计。海啸波传播至浅水大陆架后受海底坡度变化、海底粗糙度等因素影响,波动的非线性效应迅速传播、积累,与线性浅水方程计算的海啸波相比表现出较大差异,主要表现为:在南海区,水深小于100m时,海啸波首波以后的系列波动非线性特征比较明显,两者波幅差别较大,但首波波幅的区别不大,因此对于该区域在不考虑海啸爬高的情况下,应用线性系统计算得到的海啸波幅也可满足海啸预警报的要求;在东海区由于陆架影响,海啸波非线性特征明显增强,水深小于100m区域,首波及其后系列波波幅均差异较大,故在该区域必须考虑海啸波非线性作用。本文就底摩擦项对海啸波首波波幅的影响进行了数值对比分析,结果表明:底摩擦作用对海啸波首波波幅影响仅作用于小于100m水深。最后,该文通过敏感性试验,初步分析了陆架宽度及陆架边缘深度对海啸波波幅的影响,得出海啸波经陆架传播共振、变形后,海啸波幅的放大或减小与陆架的宽度及陆架边缘水深有关。 相似文献
13.
G. V. Shevchenko 《Oceanology》2017,57(5):621-631
A long-term sea level series were analyzed, recorded at 12 coastal tide gauges located on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. Estimates for the maximum heights of the tidal level, storm surges, and tsunamis were obtained separately, as well as for the rare recurrence of the total sea level height with the probability of these individual components superposition. The maximum total height of the sea level without a tsunami were obtained for the Magadan station, where the main factor is anomalously large tides, as well as for Iturup and Matua islands, where the highest storm surges were recorded. The minimum values were obtained for Ust’-Kamchatsk and Malokuril’sk (Shikotan Island) on different flanks of the study area. When a tsunami is included, the maximum values of possible total sea level rises were observed on the Pacific coast of the Kuril Ridge and the influence of tides and meteorologically induced oscillations are small. On the east coast of Kamchatka adjacent to the considered closed area, the role of tsunamis is much smaller. At the Kuril’sk station, where the height of the largest tsunami (Chilean, May 1960) was about a half the strongest surge height, the contribution of the tsunami scarcely affected the resulting estimates. As a rule, the contribution of a tsunami becomes significant at other stations on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk with a recurrence period of 100 years. 相似文献
14.
The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, not only affected the Bay of Bengal coast of India but also part of the Arabian Sea coast of India. In particular, the tsunami caused loss of life and heavy damage on some parts of the Kerala coast in southwest India. The tsunami traveled west, south of Sri Lanka, and some of the tsunami energy was diffracted around Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India and moved northward into the Arabian Sea. However, tsunami, being a long gravity wave with a wave length of a few hundred kilometers, has to take a wide turn. In that process, it missed the very southern part of the Kerala coast and did not achieve large amplitudes there. However, further north, the tsunami achieved amplitudes of upto 5 m and caused loss of life and significant damage. Here we identify the physical oceanographic processes that were responsible for selective amplification of the tsunami in certain locations. 相似文献
15.
根据渤海区域地质断层特征和历史地震活动规律,分析得出渤海内潜在最大震级上限为8.1级,并对该海啸源可能的两组震源机制分别进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示：渤海局部区域海啸波幅最大可达 1.5 m,最大流速可达2.8~3.0 m/s,具备造成灾害损失的风险。在该海啸源情景下,渤海海盆内易激发长期的水位自由振荡,部分区域水位振荡可持续 20 h以上,振荡波幅的大小与海啸首波波幅相当或更大。基于快速傅里叶变换方法对海啸波进行频谱分析,部分长周期频谱成分满足区域固有共振特征。因此,渤海内一旦发生海啸,不仅要关注海啸首波可能造成的灾害性影响,还要密切关注海啸首波到达后,可能产生的长时间、长周期的海啸波共振以及往复式海啸流造成的影响。 相似文献
16.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》1998,9(5):323-331
The paper analyses the effect of non-linearity and bottom friction on propagation of tsunami-type surface waves from the abyssal
part of the Black Sea towards the shelf zone. The study relies, on numerical solution of unidimensional non-linear equations
for long waves, using the finite-difference technique. Numerical experiments have been conducted for the bottom profile continental
slope and shelf, with the full wave reflection being prescribed at a 10-m depth contour. It has been shown that the major
role in transforming solitary waves belongs to non-linear topographic factors rather than to dissipation. The reflected wave
has been found to be non-linearly distorted, and wave heights in the Black Sea coastal zone have been found to increase by
many times.
Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
17.
18.
The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea. 相似文献
19.
I. S. Kostenko A. A. Kurkin E. N. Pelinovsky A. Yalciner 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(1):89-100
The features of the propagation of the tsunami of March 11, 2011 in the northeastern Pacific have been studied with the aim of revealing the degree of influence of the Kuril Islands on the penetration of the tsunami in the Sea of Okhotsk. For this, a series of computational experiments have been performed within the shallow water theory using bathymetry (1) with and (2) without the Kuril Islands. The wave heights calculated have been analyzed, and the tsunami’s magnitude and intensity in the Sea of Okhotsk have been estimated. The computational experiments performed allow assessment of a decrease in the tsunami intensity while passing the Kuril Islands. 相似文献
20.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(4):211-219
Within the framework of the nonlinear theory of long waves, we perform the numerical analysis of the one-dimensional run-up
of solitary tsunami waves upon a plane sloping coast. We study the dependences of the run-up heights on the parameters of
waves at the entrance of the shelf zone and on the slope of the coast. The run-up heights of tsunami waves are estimated for
the bottom topography typical of the south coast of the Crimean Peninsula.
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Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 11–18, July–August, 2005. 相似文献