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1.
This paper investigates the effect of adjusting the mean field bias (MFB) in radar-based precipitation data on analysis and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture in assimilating streamflow or streamflow and in situ soil moisture data into distributed hydrologic models. To evaluate the effect of adjusting the MFB under realistic as well as idealized conditions, both real-world and synthetic experiments are carried out for the Eldon Catchment on the border of Oklahoma and Arkansas in the US. In the synthetic experiment, the MFB is modeled as a stationary Markov chain process. The synthetic experiment showed that adjusting the MFB in the assimilation process significantly improves streamflow analysis when the initial conditions are known with reasonable certainty, and that assimilating soil moisture in addition to streamflow improves analysis of streamflow as well as soil moisture if the initial conditions are largely uncertain. Adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process noticeably improved streamflow analysis over ranges of the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data. On the other hand, increasing the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data tended to degrade soil moisture analysis due possibly to over-adjusting soil moisture to mitigate the precipitation error. The real-world experiment with one-year dataset showed that adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process helped capture the peak as well as volume of outlet flow analysis as well as prediction, and that additionally assimilating interior flow observations was necessary to improve analysis and prediction of peak flows at interior locations.  相似文献   

2.
Soil moisture is a key hydrological variable in flood forecasting: it largely influences the partition of rain between runoff and infiltration and thus controls the flow at the outlet of a catchment. The methodology developed in this paper aims at improving the commonly used hydrological tools in an operational forecasting context by introducing soil moisture data into streamflow modelling. A sequential assimilation procedure, based on an extended Kalman filter, is developed and coupled with a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model. It updates the internal states of the model (soil and routing reservoirs) by assimilating daily soil moisture and streamflow data in order to better fit these external observations. We present in this paper the results obtained on the Serein, a Seine sub-catchment (France), during a period of about 2 years and using Time Domain Reflectivity probe soil moisture measurements from 0–10 to 0–100 cm and stream gauged data. Streamflow prediction is improved by assimilation of both soil moisture and streamflow individually and by coupled assimilation. Assimilation of soil moisture data is particularly effective during flood events while assimilation of streamflow data is more effective for low flows. Combined assimilation is therefore more adequate on the entire forecasting period. Finally, we discuss the adequacy of this methodology coupled with Remote Sensing data.  相似文献   

3.
With well-determined hydraulic parameters in a hydrologic model, a traditional data assimilation method (such as the Kalman filter and its extensions) can be used to retrieve root zone soil moisture under uncertain initial state variables (e.g., initial soil moisture content) and good simulated results can be achieved. However, when the key soil hydraulic parameters are incorrect, the error is non-Gaussian, as the Kalman filter will produce a persistent bias in its predictions. In this paper, we propose a method coupling optimal parameters and extended Kalman filter data assimilation (OP-EKF) by combining optimal parameter estimation, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) assimilation method, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and Richards’ equation. We examine the accuracy of estimating root zone soil moisture through the optimal parameters and extended Kalman filter data assimilation method by using observed in situ data at the Meiling experimental station, China. Results indicate that merely using EKF for assimilating surface soil moisture content to obtain soil moisture content in the root zone will produce a persistent bias between simulated and observed values. Using the OP-EKF assimilation method, estimates were clearly improved. If the soil profile is heterogeneous, soil moisture retrieval is accurate in the 0-50 cm soil profile and is inaccurate at 100 cm depth. Results indicate that the method is useful for retrieving root zone soil moisture over large areas and long timescales even when available soil moisture data are limited to the surface layer, and soil moisture content are uncertain and soil hydraulic parameters are incorrect.  相似文献   

4.
This paper examines the potential for improving Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic predictions of root-zone soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and stream flow within the 341 km2 Cobb Creek Watershed in southwestern Oklahoma through the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In a series of synthetic twin experiments assimilating surface soil moisture is shown to effectively update SWAT upper-layer soil moisture predictions and provide moderate improvement to lower layer soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates. However, insufficient SWAT-predicted vertical coupling results in limited updating of deep soil moisture, regardless of the SWAT parameterization chosen for root-water extraction. Likewise, a real data assimilation experiment using ground-based soil moisture observations has only limited success in updating upper-layer soil moisture and is generally unsuccessful in enhancing SWAT stream flow predictions. Comparisons against ground-based observations suggest that SWAT significantly under-predicts the magnitude of vertical soil water coupling at the site, and this lack of coupling impedes the ability of the EnKF to effectively update deep soil moisture, groundwater flow and surface runoff. The failed attempt to improve stream flow prediction is also attributed to the inability of the EnKF to correct for existing biases in SWAT-predicted stream flow components.  相似文献   

5.
The upcoming deployment of satellite-based microwave sensors designed specifically to retrieve surface soil moisture represents an important milestone in efforts to develop hydrologic applications for remote sensing observations. However, typical measurement depths of microwave-based soil moisture retrievals are generally considered too shallow (top 2–5 cm of the soil column) for many important water cycle and agricultural applications. Recent work has demonstrated that thermal remote sensing estimates of surface radiometric temperature provide a complementary source of land surface information that can be used to define a robust proxy for root-zone (top 1 m of the soil column) soil moisture availability. In this analysis, we examine the potential benefits of simultaneously assimilating both microwave-based surface soil moisture retrievals and thermal infrared-based root-zone soil moisture estimates into a soil water balance model using a series of synthetic twin data assimilation experiments conducted at the USDA Optimizing Production Inputs for Economic and Environmental Enhancements (OPE3) site. Results from these experiments illustrate that, relative to a baseline case of assimilating only surface soil moisture retrievals, the assimilation of both root- and surface-zone soil moisture estimates reduces the root-mean-square difference between estimated and true root-zone soil moisture by 50% to 35% (assuming instantaneous root-zone soil moisture retrievals are obtained at an accuracy of between 0.020 and 0.030 m3 m−3). Most significantly, improvements in root-zone soil moisture accuracy are seen even for cases in which root-zone soil moisture retrievals are assumed to be relatively inaccurate (i.e. retrievals errors of up to 0.070 m3 m−3) or limited to only very sparse sampling (i.e. one instantaneous measurement every eight days). Preliminary real data results demonstrate a clear increase in the R2 correlation coefficient with ground-based root-zone observations (from 0.51 to 0.73) upon assimilation of actual surface soil moisture and tower-based thermal infrared temperature observations made at the OPE3 study site.  相似文献   

6.
This study has applied evolutionary algorithm to address the data assimilation problem in a distributed hydrological model. The evolutionary data assimilation (EDA) method uses multi-objective evolutionary strategy to continuously evolve ensemble of model states and parameter sets where it adaptively determines the model error and the penalty function for different assimilation time steps. The assimilation was determined by applying the penalty function to merge background information (i.e., model forecast) with perturbed observation data. The assimilation was based on updated estimates of the model state and its parameterizations, and was complemented by a continuous evolution of competitive solutions.The EDA was illustrated in an integrated assimilation approach to estimate model state using soil moisture, which in turn was incorporated into the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to assimilate streamflow. Soil moisture was independently assimilated to allow estimation of its model error, where the estimated model state was integrated into SWAT to determine background streamflow information before they are merged with perturbed observation data. Application of the EDA in Spencer Creek watershed in southern Ontario, Canada generates a time series of soil moisture and streamflow. Evaluation of soil moisture and streamflow assimilation results demonstrates the capability of the EDA to simultaneously estimate model state and parameterizations for real-time forecasting operations. The results show improvement in both streamflow and soil moisture estimates when compared to open-loop simulation, and a close matching between the background and the assimilation illustrates the forecasting performance of the EDA approach.  相似文献   

7.
Model parameters are a source of uncertainty that can easily cause systematic deviation and significantly affect the accuracy of soil moisture generation in assimilation systems. This study addresses the issue of retrieving model parameters related to soil moisture via the simultaneous estimation of states and parameters based on the Common Land Model (CoLM). The state-parameter estimation algorithms AEnKF (Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter), DEnKF (Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter) and SODA (Simultaneous optimization and data assimilation) are entirely implemented within an EnKF framework to investigate how the three algorithms can correct model parameters and improve the accuracy of soil moisture estimation. The analysis is illustrated by assimilating the surface soil moisture levels from varying observation intervals using data from Mongolian plateau sites. Furthermore, a radiation transfer model is introduced as an observation operator to analyze the influence of brightness temperature assimilation on states and parameters that are estimated at different microwave signal frequencies. Three cases were analyzed for both soil moisture and brightness temperature assimilation, focusing on the progressive incorporation of parameter uncertainty, forcing data uncertainty and model uncertainty. It has been demonstrated that EnKF is outperformed by all other methods, as it consistently maintains a bias. State-parameter estimation algorithms can provide a more accurate estimation of soil moisture than EnKF. AEnKF is the most robust method, with the lowest RMSE values for retrieving states and parameters dealing only with parameter uncertainty, but it possesses disadvantages related to increasing sources of uncertainty and decreasing numbers of observations. SODA performs well under the complex situations in which DEnKF shows slight disadvantages in terms of statistical indicators; however, the former consumes far more memory and time than the latter.  相似文献   

8.
This paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture and temperature profiles by assimilating near-surface soil moisture and surface temperature data into a soil moisture and heat transfer model. The direct insertion and Kalman filter assimilation schemes have been used most frequently in assimilation studies, but no comparisons of these schemes have been made. This study investigates which of these approaches is able to retrieve the soil moisture and temperature profiles the fastest, over what depth soil moisture observations are required, and the effect of update interval on profile retrieval. These questions are addressed by a desktop study using synthetic data. The study shows that the Kalman filter assimilation scheme is superior to the direct insertion assimilation scheme, with retrieval of the soil moisture profile being achieved in 12 h as compared to 8 days or more, depending on observation depth, for hourly observations. It was also found that profile retrieval could not be realised for direct insertion of the surface node alone, and that observation depth does not have a significant effect on profile retrieval time for the Kalman filter. The observation interval was found to be unimportant for profile retrieval with the Kalman filter when the forcing data is accurate, whilst for direct insertion the continuous Dirichlet boundary condition was required for an increasingly longer period of time. It was also found that the Kalman filter assimilation scheme was less susceptible to unstable updates if volumetric soil moisture was modelled as the dependent state rather than matric head, because the volumetric soil moisture state is more linear in the forecasting model.  相似文献   

9.
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10.
This study investigates the potential of estimating the soil moisture profile and the soil thermal and hydraulic properties by assimilating soil temperature at shallow depths using a particle batch smoother (PBS) using synthetic tests. Soil hydraulic properties influence the redistribution of soil moisture within the soil profile. Soil moisture, in turn, influences the soil thermal properties and surface energy balance through evaporation, and hence the soil heat transfer. Synthetic experiments were used to test the hypothesis that assimilating soil temperature observations could lead to improved estimates of soil hydraulic properties. We also compared different data assimilation strategies to investigate the added value of jointly estimating soil thermal and hydraulic properties in soil moisture profile estimation. Results show that both soil thermal and hydraulic properties can be estimated using shallow soil temperatures. Jointly updating soil hydraulic properties and soil states yields robust and accurate soil moisture estimates. Further improvement is observed when soil thermal properties were also estimated together with the soil hydraulic properties and soil states. Finally, we show that the inclusion of a tuning factor to prevent rapid fluctuations of parameter estimation, yields improved soil moisture, temperature, and thermal and hydraulic properties.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, a new state-parameter estimation approach is presented based on the dual ensemble Kalman smoother(DEn KS) and simple biosphere model(Si B2) to sequentially estimate both the soil properties and soil moisture profile by assimilating surface soil moisture observations. The Arou observation station, located in the upper reaches of the Heihe River in northwestern China, was selected to test the proposed method. Three numeric experiments were designed and performed to analyze the influence of uncertainties in model parameters, atmospheric forcing, and the model's physical mechanics on soil moisture estimates. Several assimilation schemes based on the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF), ensemble Kalman smoother(En KS), and dual En KF(DEn KF) were also compared in this study. The results demonstrate that soil moisture and soil properties can be simultaneously estimated by state-parameter estimation methods, which can provide more accurate estimation of soil moisture than traditional filter methods such as En KF and En KS. The estimation accuracy of the model parameters decreased with increasing error sources. DEn KS outperformed DEn KF in estimating soil moisture in most cases, especially where few observations were available. This study demonstrates that the DEn KS approach is a useful and practical way to improve soil moisture estimation.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

In order to improve the soil moisture (SM) modelling capacity, a regional SM assimilation scheme based on an empirical approach considering spatial variability was constructed to assimilate in situ observed SM data into a hydrological model. The daily variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was built to simulate SM in the Upper Huai River Basin, China, with a resolution of 5 km × 5 km. Through synthetic assimilation experiments and validations, the assimilated SM was evaluated, and the assimilation feedback on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow are analysed and discussed. The results show that the assimilation scheme improved the SM modelling capacity, both spatially and temporally. Moreover, the simulated ET was continually affected by changes in SM simulation, and the streamflow predictions were improved after applying the SM assimilation scheme. This study demonstrates the potential value of in situ observations in SM assimilation, and provides valuable ways for improving hydrological simulations.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT

Traditionally, hydrological models are only calibrated to reproduce streamflow regime without considering other hydrological state variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Limited studies have been performed on constraining the model parameters, despite the fact that the presence of a large number of parameters may provide large degree of freedom, resulting in equifinality and poor model performance. In this study, a multi-objective optimization approach is adopted, and both streamflow and soil moisture data are calibrated simultaneously for an experimental study basin in the Saskatchewan Prairies in western Canada. The results of this study show that the multi-objective calibration improves model fidelity compared to the single objective calibration. Moreover, the study demonstrates that single objective calibration performed against only streamflow can fairly mimic the streamflow hydrograph but does not yield realistic estimation of other fluxes such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture (especially in deeper soil layers).  相似文献   

14.
Comparative hydrology has been hampered by limited availability of geographically extensive, intercompatible monitoring data on comprehensive water balance stores and fluxes. These limitations have, for example, restricted comprehensive assessment of multiple dimensions of wetting and drying related to climate change and hampered understanding of why widespread changes in precipitation extremes are uncorrelated with changes in streamflow extremes. Here, we address this knowledge gap and underlying data gap by developing a new data synthesis product and using that product to detect trends in the frequencies and magnitudes of a comprehensive set of hydroclimatic and hydrologic extremes. CHOSEN (Comprehensive Hydrologic Observatory Sensor Network) is a database of streamflow, soil moisture, and other hydroclimatic and hydrologic variables from 30 study areas across the United States. An accompanying data pipeline provides a reproducible, semi-automated approach for assimilating data from multiple sources, performing quality assurance and control, gap-filling and writing to a standard format. Based on the analysis of extreme events in the CHOSEN dataset, we detected hotspots, characterized by unusually large proportions of monitored variables exhibiting trends, in the Pacific Northwest, New England, Florida and Alaska. Extreme streamflow wetting and drying trends exhibited regional coherence. Drying trends in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast were often associated with trends in soil moisture and precipitation (Pacific Northwest) and evapotranspiration-related variables (Southeast). In contrast, wetting trends in the upper Midwest and the Rocky Mountains showed few univariate associations with other hydroclimatic extremes, but their latitudes and elevations suggested the importance of changing snowmelt characteristics. On the whole, observed trends are incompatible with a ‘drying-in-dry, wetting-in-wet’ paradigm for climate-induced hydrologic changes over land. Our analysis underscores the need for more extensive, longer-term observational data for soil moisture, snow and evapotranspiration.  相似文献   

15.
Data assimilation techniques have been proven as an effective tool to improve model forecasts by combining information about observed variables in many areas. This article examines the potential of assimilating surface soil moisture observations into a field‐scale hydrological model, the Root Zone Water Quality Model, to improve soil moisture estimation. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a popular data assimilation technique for nonlinear systems, was applied and compared with a simple direct insertion method. In situ soil moisture data at four different depths (5, 20, 40, and 60 cm) from two agricultural fields (AS1 and AS2) in northeastern Indiana were used for assimilation and validation purposes. Through daily update, the EnKF improved soil moisture estimation compared with the direct insertion method and model results without assimilation, having more distinct improvement at the 5 and 20 cm depths than for deeper layers (40 and 60 cm). Local vertical soil property heterogeneity in AS1 deteriorated soil moisture estimates with the EnKF. Removal of systematic bias in the forecast model was found to be critical for more successful soil moisture data assimilation studies. This study also demonstrates that a more frequent update generally contributes in enhancing the open loop simulation; however, large forecasting error can prevent more frequent update from providing better results. In addition, results indicate that various ensemble sizes make little difference in the assimilation results. An ensemble of 100 members produced results that were comparable with results obtained from larger ensembles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
In this study, we present a particle batch smoother (PBS) to determine soil moisture profiles by assimilating soil temperatures at two depths (4 and 8 cm). The PBS can be considered as an extension of the standard particle filter (PF) in which soil moisture is updated within a window of fixed length using all observed soil temperatures in that window. This approach was developed with a view to assimilating temperature observations from distributed temperature sensing (DTS) observations, a technique which can provide temperature observations every meter or less along cables up to kilometers in length. Here, the PBS approach is tested using soil moisture and temperature, and meteorological data from an experimental site in Citra, Florida. Results demonstrate that the PBS provides a statistically significant improvement in estimated soil moisture compared to the PF, with only a marginal increase in computational expense ( < 3% of CPU time). This confirms that assimilating a sequence of temperature observations yields a better soil moisture estimate compared to sequential assimilation of individual temperature observations. The impact of observation interval was investigated for both PF and PBS, and the optimal window length was determined for the PBS. While increasing the observation interval is essential to maintain the spread of particle values in the PF, the PBS performance is best when all available observations are assimilated.  相似文献   

17.
The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is well known and widely used in land data assimilation for its high precision and simple operation. The land surface models used as the forecast operator in a land data assimilation system are usually designed to consider the model subgrid-heterogeneity and soil water thawing and freezing. To neglect their effects could lead to some errors in soil moisture assimilation. The dual EnKF method is employed in soil moisture data assimilation to build a soil moisture data as- similation framework based on the NCAR Community Land Model version 2.0 (CLM 2.0) in considera- tion of the effects of the model subgrid-heterogeneity and soil water thawing and freezing: Liquid volumetric soil moisture content in a given fraction is assimilated through the state filter process, while solid volumetric soil moisture content in the same fraction and solid/liquid volumetric soil moisture in the other fractions are optimized by the parameter filter. Preliminary experiments show that this dual EnKF-based assimilation framework can assimilate soil moisture more effectively and precisely than the usual EnKF-based assimilation framework without considering the model subgrid-scale heteroge- neity and soil water thawing and freezing. With the improvement of soil moisture simulation, the soil temperature-simulated precision can be also improved to some extent.  相似文献   

18.
The Land Information System (LIS) is an established land surface modeling framework that integrates various community land surface models, ground measurements, satellite-based observations, high performance computing and data management tools. The use of advanced software engineering principles in LIS allows interoperability of individual system components and thus enables assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales. In this work, we describe a sequential data assimilation extension of LIS that incorporates multiple observational sources, land surface models and assimilation algorithms. These capabilities are demonstrated here in a suite of experiments that use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and assimilation through direct insertion. In a soil moisture experiment, we discuss the impact of differences in modeling approaches on assimilation performance. Provided careful choice of model error parameters, we find that two entirely different hydrological modeling approaches offer comparable assimilation results. In a snow assimilation experiment, we investigate the relative merits of assimilating different types of observations (snow cover area and snow water equivalent). The experiments show that data assimilation enhancements in LIS are uniquely suited to compare the assimilation of various data types into different land surface models within a single framework. The high performance infrastructure provides adequate support for efficient data assimilation integrations of high computational granularity.  相似文献   

19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):642-654
Abstract

Soil moisture estimates obtained over large spatial areas will become increasingly available through current and upcoming satellite missions and from numerous land surface parameterization schemes run at global- and continental-scale resolutions. The goal of this research was to evaluate the potential for using macroscale estimates of soil moisture for enhancing streamflow forecasts. Towards this research objective, monthly streamflow estimates were obtained from over 50 gauge locations within the Nelson basin, Canada, for the period 1979–1999. For each streamflow record, multiple linear regression models were used to remove components of the streamflow signal related to previous streamflow, climate teleconnections (e.g. ENSO and AO) and snow water equivalence. Correlations were then assessed between the macroscale soil moisture estimates and the residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis over lead times of one, two and three months. At the one- and two-month lead time, statistically significant relationships between soil moisture and the residuals of streamflow are observed over a large proportion of the gauging locations. The number of catchments with statistically significant relationships decreases significantly after two months and particularly in the months of April—June. This study demonstrates that available macroscale estimates of soil moisture have the potential to enhance streamflow prediction, although further study is suggested to improve upon the soil moisture estimates and their application in a forecast system.  相似文献   

20.
Soil moisture is a key modifier of runoff generation from rainfall excess, including during extreme precipitation events associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). This paper presents a new, publicly available dataset from a soil moisture monitoring network in Northern California's Russian River Basin, designed to assess soil moisture controls on runoff generation under AR conditions. The observations consist of 2-min volumetric soil moisture at 19 sites and 6 depths (5, 10, 15, 20, 50, and 100 cm), starting in summer 2017. The goals of this monitoring network are to aid the development of research applications and situational awareness tools for Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations at Lake Mendocino. We present short analyses of these data to demonstrate their capability to characterize soil moisture responses to precipitation across sites and depths, including time series analysis, correlation analysis, and identification of soil saturation thresholds that induce runoff. Our results show strong inter-site Pearson's correlations (>0.8) at the seasonal timescale. Correlations are strong (>0.8) during events with high antecedent soil moisture and during drydown periods, and weak (<0.5) otherwise. High event runoff ratios are observed when antecedent soil moisture thresholds are exceeded, and when antecedent runoff is high. Although local heterogeneity in soil moisture can limit the utility of point source data in some hydrologic model applications, our analyses indicate three ways in which soil moisture data are valuable for model design: (1) sensors installed at 6 depths per location enable us to identify the soil depth below which evapotranspiration and saturation dynamics change, and therefore choose model soil layer depths, (2) time series analysis indicates the role of soil moisture processes in controlling runoff ratio during precipitation, which hydrologic models should replicate, and (3) spatial correlation analysis of the soil moisture fluctuations helps identify when and where distributed hydrologic modelling may be beneficial.  相似文献   

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