共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
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结合4种台风气压模式,采用改进的超浅台风风暴潮联合模型对辽宁沿海天文潮与风暴潮进行数值模拟试验。试验结果表明:在4种台风气压模式下,高桥模式或捷氏模式误差相对较小,在台风路径预报中有最大风速信息时可以直接运用以上两种模式进行台风增水影响;相比于传统算法,改进后的沿海天文潮与风暴潮耦合数值模型模拟的台风增水相对误差小于30%的保证率提高29%,达到规定的台风增水预报的精度要求。研究成果对于沿海地区防洪决策具有重要的参考价值。 相似文献
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2013年"菲特"台风影响期间,上海地区普降大暴雨。在降雨、风暴潮增水和上游来水的共同影响下,黄浦江、长江口、杭州湾潮位全线超警,特别是黄浦江上游部分测站最高潮位超历史记录,严重制约了流域排洪和区域排涝。为分析台风影响期间太湖流域上游来水对上海地区的影响,通过现场调查、统计分析和模型模拟等方法,计算分析台风影响期间太湖流域产水量、外边界进出水量、湖库河网调蓄量以及洪涝灾害严重地区的淹涝量等,从而计算太湖流域上游进入上海地区的水量,为上海地区的防洪减灾工作提供基础支撑。 相似文献
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我国沿海台风暴潮机制及特点俞慕耕（海军司令部气象室）风暴潮是由台风、温带气旋、冷锋等天气系统的强风作用或气压骤变引起的海面异常升降现象，又称风暴增水。我国的风暴潮主要是受台风影响产生的，在渤海和黄海也有受冷锋大风（或温带气旋）影响产生的，但频率较小。... 相似文献
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基于历史资料分析的台风水灾智能预警系统研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
台风增水预报对于防范台风水灾具有重要意义.系统采用BP神经网络模拟专家预测潮位的思维方法,通过大量历史资料自我学习建立台风增水智能预报模型,并以图形化方式直观表现预报成果.以近年来的台风增水数据对系统进行检验可以发现,神经网络算法在台风增水预报上有一定优势,系统具有较高的应用价值. 相似文献
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基于ROMS海洋模式,结合近年的地质实测资料,建立了渤海湾西部地区风暴潮漫滩的数值模型。对模型进行验证后,对渤海湾西部区域重现期为50a、100a、200a及500a的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟,分析了不同重现期风暴潮漫滩发展的动态过程及最大漫滩淹水范围。结果表明,数值模型基本能反映风暴潮的增水趋势,能够模拟风暴潮漫滩发生发展的动态过程。随着风暴潮强度的增加,渤海湾西部地区淹水范围具有从东海岸向西部内陆区域扩展的趋势。通过曲线拟合发现,风暴潮最大漫滩面积比值与高水位之间基本呈线性关系。 相似文献
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南海北部长湾风暴潮贝壳堤的沉积特征及发育模式 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
南海北部长湾贝壳堤是一典型的风暴潮成因贝壳堤。该贝壳堤的横向、纵向露头和钻孔所显示的地层结构、层理特征、粒度特征、14C测年、物质组成、贝屑种属生境及当地风暴增水高度和地壳升降幅度表明:①贝壳堤由风暴沉积组成,是风暴潮增水期间海岸沉积物堆积的结果,由于堆积在平均高潮面之上,增水退却后不受正常天气下波浪的影响得以保存;②理想剖面由下而上分4个部分:潮滩堆积、激浪带堆积、增水面下波浪堆积和增水面上波浪爬高堆积,各个部分具有不同的沉积特征,分别代表贝壳堤向上增长的各个阶段的沉积环境和风暴作用方式;③风暴潮贝壳堤与非风暴潮贝壳堤不仅在发育过程,而且在沉积结构、粒度特征、贝屑种属、堆积部位、堆积高度及环境意义等方面都有所不同。 相似文献
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受大气降水、黄河水位断流、风暴潮和人类工程活动等因素影响,现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境极其脆弱和敏感。本文运用地下水数值模拟方法,通过构建滨海湿地水文模型,以氯离子作为模拟因子,预测滨海湿地地下水趋势性变化。计算结果显示,湿地水位和盐度对湿地生长和发育起控制作用;黄河持续断流和强烈风暴潮对湿地水质影响明显;当风暴潮引起增水幅度超过正常潮高的2.4m,会造成沿海低地特别是北部未受防潮大坝保护的滨海湿地淹没。 相似文献
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Three-Dimensional Modeling of Storm Surge and Inundation Including the Effects of Coastal Vegetation
Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models are used to simulate the hurricane-induced storm surge and coastal inundation in regions with vegetation. Typically, 2D storm surge models use an enhanced Manning coefficient while 3D storm surge models use a roughness height to represent the effects of coastal vegetation on flow. This paper presents a 3D storm surge model which accurately resolves the effects of vegetation on the flow and turbulence. First, a vegetation-resolving 1DV Turbulent Kinetic Energy model (TKEM) is introduced and validated with laboratory data. This model is both robust enough to accurately model flows in complex canopies, while compact and efficient enough for incorporation into a 3D storm surge-wave modeling system: Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3D-Surface WAves Nearshore (CH3D-SWAN). Using the 3D vegetation-resolving model, three numerical experiments are conducted. In the first experiment, comparisons are made between the 2D Manning coefficient approach and the 3D vegetation-resolving approach for simple wind-driven flow. In a second experiment, 2D and 3D representations of vegetation produce similar inundations from the same hurricane forcing, but differences in momentum are found. In a final experiment, varying inundation between seemingly analogous 2D and 3D representations of vegetation are demonstrated, pointing to a significant scientific need for data within wetlands during storm surge events. This study shows that the complex flow structures within vegetation canopies can be accurately simulated using a vegetation-resolving 3D storm surge model, which can be used to assess the feasibility for future wetland restoration projects. 相似文献
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Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The storm surge in coastal Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina was unprecedented in the region. The height and geographic
extent of the storm surge came as a surprise to many and exceeded pre-impact surge scenarios based on SLOSH models that were
the basis for emergency preparedness and local land use decision-making. This paper explores the spatial accuracy of three
interpolated storm surge surfaces derived from post-event reconnaissance data by comparing the interpolation results to a
specific SLOSH run. The findings are used to suggest improvements in the calibration of existing pre-event storm surge models
such as SLOSH. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions on an optimal surge forecast map that could enhance the communication
of storm surge risks to the public. 相似文献
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Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve. 相似文献
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风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点. 相似文献
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Nicolas Bruneau Juergen Grieser Thomas Loridan Enrica Bellone Shree Khare 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):649-667
Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process. 相似文献
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Ki-Young Heo Jeong-Wook Lee Kyung-Ja Ha Ki-Cheon Jun Kwang-Soon Park Jae-Il Kwon 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(1):151-162
High-quality informations on sea level pressure and sea surface wind stress are required to accurately predict storm surges
over the Korean Peninsula. The storm surge on 31 March 2007 at Yeonggwang, on the western coast, was an abrupt response to
mesocyclone development. In the present study, we attempted to obtain reliable surface winds and sea level pressures. Using
an optimal physical parameterization for wind conditions, MM5, WRF and COAMPS were used to simulate the atmospheric states
that accompanied the storm surge. The use of MM5, WRF and COAMPS simulations indicated the development of high winds in the
strong pressure gradient due to an anticyclone and a mesocyclone in the southern part of the western coast. The response to
this situation to the storm surge was sensitive. A low-level warm advection was examined as a possible causal mechanism for
the development of a mesocyclone in the generating storm surge. The low-level warm temperature advection was simulated using
the three models, but MM5 and WRF tended to underestimate the warm tongue and overestimate the wind speed. The WRF simulation
was closer to the observed data than the other simulations in terms of wind speed and the intensity of the mesocyclone. It
can be concluded that the magnitude of the storm surge at Yeonggwang was dependent, not only on the development of a mesocyclone
but on ocean effects as well. 相似文献
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Anne-Eleonore Paquier Jana Haddad Seth Lawler Celso M. Ferreira 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(4):930-946
Coastal wetlands are receiving increased consideration as natural defenses for coastal communities from storm surge. However, there are gaps in storm surge measurements collected in marsh areas during extreme events as well as understanding of storm surge processes. The present study evaluates the importance and variation of different processes (i.e., wave, current, and water level dynamics with respect of the marsh topography and vegetation characteristics) involved in a storm surge over a marsh, assesses how these processes contribute to storm surge attenuation, and quantifies the storm surge attenuation in field conditions. During the Fall of 2015, morphology and vegetation surveys were conducted along a marsh transect in a coastal marsh located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, mainly composed of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens. Hydrodynamic surveys were conducted during two storm events. Collected data included wave characteristics, current velocity and direction, and water levels. Data analysis focused on the understanding of the cross-shore evolution of waves, currents and water level, and their influence on the overall storm surge attenuation. Results indicate that the marsh area, despite its short length, attenuates waves and reduces current velocity and water level. Tides have a dominant influence on current direction and velocity, but the presence of vegetation and the marsh morphology contribute to a strong reduction of current velocity over the marsh platform relative to the currents at the marsh front. Wave attenuation varies across the tide cycle which implies a link between wave attenuation and water level and, consequently, storm surge height. Storm surge reduction, here assessed through high water level (HWL) attenuation, is linked to wave attenuation across the front edge of the marsh; this positive trend highlights the reduction of water level height induced by wave setup reduction during wave propagation across the marsh front edge. Water level attenuation rates observed here have a greater range than the rates observed or modeled by other authors, and our results suggest that this is linked to the strong influence of waves in storm surge attenuation over coastal areas. 相似文献
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The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta. 相似文献
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Both finite-element and finite-difference numerical models are applied to simulate storm surges and associated currents generated
by tropical cyclones that struck the coast of Andhra Pradesh, located on the east coast of India. During a cyclone, the total
water level at any location on the coast is made up of the storm surge, surge–wind wave interaction and the tide. The advanced
circulation two-dimensional depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model based on finite-element formulation and the two-dimensional
finite-difference model of storm surges developed at IIT Delhi, hereafter referred as IITD storm surge model, are used. These
models are driven by astronomical tides at the open ocean boundary and cyclonic asymmetric winds over the surface of the computational
domain. Comparison of model simulated sea-surface elevations with coarse and finer spatial resolutions suggests that the grid
resolution near the coast is very crucial for accurate determination of the surges in addition to the local bathymetry. The
model underpredicts surges, and the peak surge location shifts more to the right of the landfall as the spatial resolution
of the model becomes coarser. The numerical experiments also demonstrate that the ADCIRC model is robust over the IITD storm
surge model for surge computations as the coastline is better represented in the former. 相似文献