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Abstract A necessary stage in calculations for prediction purposes is the study of the tsunami recurrence function which yields mean recurrence of tsunami with maximum wave height not greater than a specified level h. The major problem in using these functions for prediction purposes is the fact that a well‐grounded approximation of empirical data on wave heights is difficult to obtain, because the mathematical model for prediction is an extrapolation of this function for tsunami heights whose recurrence remains uncertain. We shall show that the natural relation of observable tsunamis statistics to extremum statistics leads to the discovery of at least two and possibly three temporal scale intervals with different tsunami modes. It has also been clarified that for the 10 years < T < 103 years range of time periods, which is the most important one for tsunami wave height prediction purposes, the tsunami recurrence is described by two parameters: frequency A of occurrence of large tsunamis and coefficient k of wave ampliflcation near the shore. As an example, a diagram of tsunami hazard zoning of the eastern Honshu coast has been plotted. 相似文献
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Shigehisa Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3):265-272
Abstract Tsunami occurrence and invasive tsunami at a local area in the circum‐Pacific seismic zone were studied as a Poisson process. The tsunami height at Osaka, Japan, was related to tsunami magnitude. The exceedence frequency of invaded tsunami at Osaka showed a good fitness to the Poisson process. However, an adapted process should be introduced for exceedence frequency of tsunami occurrence in the western Pacific. The exceedence probability of invasive tsunami at Osaka was shown as a function of tsunami magnitude on a diagram with a parameter of the time period. The obtained result might be useful for the planning of coastal area, warning of invasive tsunami, and designing coastal structures as protection within the scope of tsunami economics. 相似文献
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Stefano Tinti 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):243-254
Abstract In the Mediterranean Sea, tsunamigenic sources may be found in several areas in the belt running from Gibraltar up to the Black Sea, but they are concentrated mainly around Italy and Greece. Most of the sources are located close to the coasts and excite tsunamis reaching the coasts soon after the generation time. Tsunami research and tsunami mitigation programs are only in a very initial stage in the Mediterranean area. The present activities are focused chiefly to tsunami potential evaluation and on tsunami propagation modeling. The establishment of efficient observational networks, centers for data management and services, and systems for issuing tsunami warnings are some of the most urgent needs. In this context, the envisaged contribution of marine geodesy is twofold. First, monitoring of submarine active faults and submarine volcanic areas by means of systems capable of detecting seafloor deformation may contribute in identifying periods in which the probability of tsunami generation increases beyond a threshold value, especially in those tsunamigenic zones where geodetic observations on land are insufficient (for example, eastern Sicily in Italy and the Hellenic Arc in southern Greece). Second, since most of the active sources are close to the coastline, computations of tsunami propagation and run‐up may be significantly enhanced by a better knowledge of the bathymetry of the seabelt facing the coasts. 相似文献
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Yoshikawa Masashi Igarashi Yasuhiko Murata Shin Baba Toshitaka Hori Takane Okada Masato 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2019,40(4):467-477
When a subduction-zone earthquake occurs, the tsunami height must be predicted to cope with the damage generated by the tsunami. Therefore, tsunami height prediction methods have been studied using simulation data acquired by large-scale calculations. In this research, we consider the existence of a nonlinear power law relationship between the water pressure gauge data observed by the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) and the coastal tsunami height. Using this relationship, we propose a nonlinear parametric model and conduct a prediction experiment to compare the accuracy of the proposed method with those of previous methods and implement particular improvements to the extrapolation accuracy.
相似文献7.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
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This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part. The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at certain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M S ～ 8 and a recurrence period of T ≈ 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for sources of lesser extent (<50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M S ～ 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years. 相似文献
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Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast
Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest. 相似文献
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Abstract Arguments are presented to justify midocean tsunami measurements and related investigations aimed toward improvement of tsunami prediction and warning. It is postulated that midocean tsunami signatures be measured simultaneously at several locations and correlated with high‐accuracy onshore measurements. 相似文献
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Abstract Marine positioning is relevant for several aspects of tsunami research, observation, and prediction. These include accurate positioning of instruments on the ocean bottom for determining the deep‐water signature of the tsunami, seismic observational setups to measure the earthquake parameters, equipment to determine the tsunami characteristics during the propagation phase, and instruments to map the vertical uplift and subsidence that occurs during a dip‐slip earthquake. In the accurate calculation of coastal tsunami run‐up through numerical models, accurate bathymetry is needed, not only near the coast (for tsunami run‐up) but also in the deep ocean (for tsunami generation and propagation). If the bathymetry is wrong in the source region, errors will accumulate and will render the numerical calculations inaccurate. Without correct and detailed run‐up values on the various coastlines, tsunami prediction for actual events will lead to false alarms and loss of public confidence. 相似文献
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Abstract Tsunami research has suffered considerably due to the lack of an objective magnitude scale. The Imamura‐Iida Grade Scale, although it has been used until now as a magnitude scale, is not objective, and it is more appropriate to call it a tsunami intensity scale. The tsunami magnitude scale proposed by Abe (1979) is also based on coastal tide gauge records, and this is not truly an objective magnitude scale. A new magnitude scale is proposed here, based on total tsunami energy, and it is demonstrated that this new scale will provide an adequate representation of the whole spectrum of tsunamis, starting from the negligible ones and including those that have devastated whole coastlines. 相似文献
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Abstract In 1980, Murty and Loomis proposed a new, objective tsunami magnitude scale based on total tsunami energy. A list of 178 tsunamigenic earthquakes during the period 1815 to 1974 was given along with estimated tsunami magnitudes. In this study, we derived the probability distribution function of tsunami magnitudes based on the assumptions that (1) the occurrences of tsunamigenic earthquakes are a Poisson process, and (2) tsunami energy is a polynomial function of tsunami recurrence time. Using the data given by Murty and Loomis, the parameters of the distribution function are estimated. Comparison with the data shows that the derived distribution is a good representation of the distribution of the Murty‐Loomis tsunami magnitude. 相似文献
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Abstract Maximum tsunami amplitudes that will result from major earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are considered. The modeled region encompasses the coastlines of British Columbia in Canada, and Washington and Oregon in the United States. Three separate models were developed for the outer coast and one model for the system consisting of the Strait of Georgia, Juan de Fuca Strait, and Puget Sound (GFP model) (Part 2). Three different source areas were considered for the outer coast models and the resulting tsunami was propagated to the entrance of Juan de Fuca Strait. Using the output from the other models, the GFP model was run. The results showed that large tsunami amplitudes can occur on the outer coast, whereas inside the GFP system, unless the earthquake occurs in the system itself, no major tsunami will result (Part 2). 相似文献
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B. D. Dykhan V. M. Jaque E. A. Kulikov S. S. Lappo V. N. Mitrofanov A. A. Poplavsky 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):303-310
Abstract The small tsunami of February 23, 1980, which originated near the southern part of the Kuril Islands was recorded by the bottom vibrotron sensor installed on the shelf near Shikotan Island and connected to the island observatory by underwater cable. The marigram of the tsunami is given and compared with marigrams obtained at shore tide gauges. Some spectral features of the records are discussed. 相似文献
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The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
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The tsunami similar to the one that has occurred in December 26, 2004 (Boxing Day Tsunami) in the Indian Ocean is simulated using the expression derived from Modified Weibull Distribution (for maximum wave height simulation) for extreme wave height predictions. The tuning coefficient plays a significant role in estimating the tsunami heights at various stages. It follows well defined mathematical laws at different stages. It is time dependent in the first three stages and depth dependent in the last two stages. The beach run-up heights estimated by the expression derived from the work-energy relation are comparable with observed values with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
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Tag‐recapture studies revealed differences in the growth rate of Haliotis iris between headlands and bays separated by as little as 200 m. Individuals off headlands had a significantly higher incremental growth and reached a higher maximum size than those in bays. These results were consistent with observations of the size composition of H. iris which showed that few individuals of harvestable size (> 125 mm shell length) were found in bays. Differences in the growth rate of H. iris may account for the apparent differences in the size at onset of maturity: individuals off headlands, and from a fast‐growing population off Wellington, reached reproductive maturity at a smaller size compared with those in bays. Yield‐per‐recruit modelling showed greater yields from headlands than bays, but egg‐per‐recruit modelling revealed more egg production was conserved in bays than off headlands. Yields could be increased from bays by decreasing the minimum size to 110 mm. Egg‐ and yield‐per‐recruit models were sensitive to the natural mortality rate (M = 0.03, 0.05 and 0.10 compared). The results show that parameters important in the management of commercial fisheries for abalone can vary over small distances: such variation should be incorporated in management strategies for abalone fisheries. 相似文献
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Abstract A project was initiated in 1986 to investigate an apparent significant discrepancy between geodetic and oceanographic leveling determinations of mean sea level around the coast of Great Britain. In oceanographic terms this discrepancy is equivalent to a sea slope in a North‐South direction. The project, which lasted for 3 years, has been carried out in conjunction with research groups at the University of Edinburgh, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, and the Ordnance Survey of Great Britain. It has involved combining Global Positioning System (GPS)‐derived ellipsoidal height differences with a high‐precision geoid, leading to an independent determination of the orthometric heights of tide gauges along the east coast of Great Britain. A major GPS campaign was observed in May 1988. Measurements were made at time gauges between Leith and Lowestoft while simultaneously making measurements at fiducial sites. The results of the 1988 and subsequent campaigns are presented and discussed, and details are given of further observation campaigns to monitor the vertical movement of tide gauges around the coast of Britain by GPS. 相似文献