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1.
S. Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(2):195-209
The exceedance probability of tsunami occurrence in the eastern Pacific was estimated as an extended Poisson process. Estimation was also undertaken for several blocks in the eastern Pacific. Some tsunamis that originated off South America hit the Japanese islands after crossing the Pacific.  相似文献   

2.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构...  相似文献   

3.
Sendai Bay in northern Japan suffered serious damage from massive tsunamis generated by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake. The physical disturbance caused by a tsunami may affect the coastal ecosystem, including the planktonic diatom community. We investigated seasonal changes in the diatom community structure at a coastal and an offshore station in Sendai Bay, from June 2011 (3 months after the tsunami) to April 2014. Diatom abundance increased at both stations during the spring. Sporadic increases were also recorded at the coastal station during the summer because of silicate input from river discharge. Seasonal succession of the diatom communities was similar at both the coastal and offshore stations. The onset of the spring bloom consisted mainly of Chaetoceros spp. when water temperatures were low. Subsequently, species such as Skeletonema costatum s.l. became dominant as salinity and nutrient concentrations decreased. Cell density decreased from summer into early winter. Leptocylindrus danicus became dominant in the summer, but was replaced by Thalassiosira cf. mala from autumn into winter. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that most of the variation in the diatom community could be explained by temperature, salinity, NO3 ?, NO2 ?, PO4 3?, and SiO2. In addition, the occurrence of diatom species before the tsunami showed a similar pattern to that after the tsunami, suggesting that the tsunami did not have a serious impact on the diatom community in Sendai Bay.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Joint probabilities of runup height due to astronomical tides and tsunamis are calculated for five bays on the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. Runup heights equaled or exceeded on the average of once per 100 years, and once per 200 years, for those bays, are evaluated. Calculations are based on wave height probabilities obtained from sets of harmonic constituents and tsunami heights recorded during the last 28 years at tidal stations on each location.

Extension of potential tsunami terrestrial flooding for populated coastal zones around those bays can be determined from the previous results. One case is illustrated showing endangered features in the hazardous zones, and recommendations to prevent casualties and property damages are given.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Canada has increased the number of tsunami warning stations on the Pacific Coast from two to three. The last gauge was installed at the north end of Vancouver Island, thereby filling a large gap previously existing and providing full coverage along the coast. The record of gauges at two of the three locations is accessible either by telephone or by means of meteor burst communication, alleviating the difficulties experienced during the tsunami threat of May 6, 1986, when telephone communications were disrupted by heavy use. The gauge at Langara Island will be relocated in a more accessible and also a more tsunami‐responsive location at Rennell Sound in the Queen Charlotte Islands. All tsunami gauges also serve as tide gauges, recording the water level every 15 min. In the event of a tsunami, the recording interval can be altered to every 60 s. Suggestions have been made that Canada attempt deep‐sea recording of tsunamis off its Pacific Coast. Although this would be of great scientific value, no such program is contemplated at this time.  相似文献   

6.
Zi Jun Gan  C. C. Tung 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):293-301
Abstract

In 1980, Murty and Loomis proposed a new, objective tsunami magnitude scale based on total tsunami energy. A list of 178 tsunamigenic earthquakes during the period 1815 to 1974 was given along with estimated tsunami magnitudes. In this study, we derived the probability distribution function of tsunami magnitudes based on the assumptions that (1) the occurrences of tsunamigenic earthquakes are a Poisson process, and (2) tsunami energy is a polynomial function of tsunami recurrence time. Using the data given by Murty and Loomis, the parameters of the distribution function are estimated. Comparison with the data shows that the derived distribution is a good representation of the distribution of the Murty‐Loomis tsunami magnitude.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake, a massive tsunami caused serious damage to coastal dikes. Local scour at the ground behind these dikes reportedly causes dike failures. It is important to reveal the scour process to establish methods for effective scour countermeasures. Herein, we focus on geogrids. To verify this proposal and examine its design, flume-model experiments were performed for non-liquefied and liquefied grounds behind coastal dikes. The results showed that the scour amount and area were reduced drastically when geogrids were present. Geogrids on the sand-bed surface changed the direction of overflow water. Thus, a scour hole developed away from a coastal dike model. Furthermore, geogrids exerted a scour-reduction effect even during liquefaction.  相似文献   

8.
Massive tsunami disturbances have potentially detrimental effects on genetic diversity and effective population size of coastal marine species, and evaluating these effects can be useful for devising conservation strategies for coastal marine environments. Local populations of the intertidal goby Chaenogobius annularis, which are distributed on scattered rocky beaches of the Japanese Archipelago, show demographic independence without overlapping generations, making this an ideal species with which to study the effects of tsunami disturbance on genetic diversity. Some of these populations were affected by the tsunami of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. Here, we investigated the change in genetic diversity of a local population of this species, which was located close to the epicenter of the earthquake, across the cohorts before and after the tsunami and evaluated the impact of the tsunami disturbance. Genetic diversity was maintained after the tsunami, and no change in the effective population size was observed. Our results suggest that the tsunami disturbance has had no marked impact on the genetic diversity of C. annularis.  相似文献   

9.
基于线性长波方程和缓变地形近岸波幅格林公式建立了覆盖整个太平洋区域的准实时地震海啸波幅预报系统。系统利用了GPU并行加速技术，可在90 s之内完成太平洋区域32 h的海啸传播计算和中国沿海城市岸段的波幅特征值预报。筛选了自2006年以来的9次发生在太平洋区域，矩震级（Mw）超过8.0且资料丰富的历史地震海啸事件，对预报系统进行了后报检验。结果表明，线性长波模型能够很好的模拟海啸在大洋中的传播过程；格林公式能够较为准确的估算缓变水深和开阔地形条件下的近岸海啸最大波幅，波幅预警准确率可达80%，基本满足海啸预警需求。以2011年日本Mw9.0地震海啸为例，评估了该系统对中国城市岸段的波幅预警能力，结论基本合理。需要注意的是，利用该系统计算对海啸源特别敏感的近场海啸波幅可能产生较大偏差。提出了若要进一步提高定量海啸波幅预警的准确率，可从以下两个方面加强研究和业务实践:一是采用多数据联合反演方法提升海啸源的精度；二是提高格林公式的适用性，或者构建高效的近岸精细化海啸数值预报系统。  相似文献   

10.
越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。  相似文献   

11.
海啸波对近岸岛礁影响的数值模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
基于Okada有限断层模型和非线性浅水波方程,结合高精度嵌套网格建立了越洋（中国近海）-局部-近岸岛礁的海啸生成与传播的数值模型。以三亚凤凰岛为例,首先针对2011日本地震海啸,模拟分析了海啸波沿中国沿海大陆架的传播特征及对凤凰岛的影响规律。在取得验证结果的基础上,进一步讨论了中国近海的马尼拉海沟和琉球海沟的潜在海啸源,以及环太平洋的21个潜在特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛的影响特征。依据海啸波在抵达凤凰岛的波浪特征,结合傅里叶频谱分析方法,探索了近岸岛礁对海啸波的放大效应。结果表明,中国近海一般震级的海啸和特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛存在一定影响,最大波幅接近1 m,传播时间从3 h到27 h不等。受三亚东南半岛的影响,琉球海沟激发的海啸和越洋海啸在凤凰岛的放大效应相对于马尼拉海沟较小,其频率集中在0.8×10-4~2×10-4 Hz。马尼拉海沟产生的海啸波在凤凰岛产生了较为显著的放大效应,对于凤凰岛是值得关注的高风险海啸源。  相似文献   

12.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.  相似文献   

13.
2011 年11 月, 联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(IOC/UNESCO)发起了代号为“Exercise Pacific Wave 11”的跨国海啸演习, 演习区域为整个太平洋海区。中国应邀参加了本次演习, 演习在我国海域地震带上假设了两个震源, 分别位于琉球海沟和马尼拉海沟。为了评估这两个潜在海啸对我国的影响, 本文采用数值模拟的方式, 对其进行了计算。计算结果表明: 这两处震源所引发的海啸均能对我国造成灾害性影响, 受影响严重的省市有江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东和海南等; 从传播时间图上看, 若发生大海啸, 海啸波将在5 h 内, 陆续影响沿海各省市; 相比琉球海沟, 马尼拉海沟震源产生的海啸会更快到达我国沿岸。  相似文献   

14.
The current study area is coastal zone of Cuddalore, Pondicherry and Villupuram districts of the Tamil Nadu along the southeast coast of India. This area is experiencing threat from many disasters such as storm, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This was one of the worst affected area during 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and during 2008 Nisha cyclone. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study was carried out using parameters probability of maximum storm surge height during the return period (mean recurrence interval), future sea level rise, coastal erosion and high resolution coastal topography with the aid of the Remote Sensing and GIS tools. The assessment results were threatening 3.46 million inhabitants from 129 villages covering a coastal area 360 km2 under the multi-hazard zone. In general river systems act as the flooding corridors which carrying larger and longer hinterland inundation. Multi-hazard Vulnerability maps were further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. These risk caused due to multi-hazards were assessed up to building levels. The decision-making tools presented here can aid as critical information during a disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy. These Multi-hazard vulnerability maps can also be used as a tool in planning a new facility and for insurance purpose.  相似文献   

15.
This paper describes the development of tsunami scenarios from the National Seismic Hazard Maps for design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest. The logic tree of Cascadia earthquakes provides four 500-year rupture configurations at moment magnitude 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2 for development of probabilistic design criteria. A planar fault model describes the rupture configurations and determines the earth surface deformation for tsunami modeling. A case study of four bridge sites at Siletz Bay, Oregon illustrates the challenges in modeling of tsunamis on the Pacific Northwest coast. A nonlinear shallow-water model with a shock-capturing scheme describes tsunami propagation across the northeastern Pacific as well as barrier beach overtopping, bore formation, and detailed flow conditions at Siletz Bay. The results show strong correlation with geological evidence from the six paleotsunamis during the last 2800 years. The proposed approach allows determination of tsunami loads that are consistent with the seismic loads currently in use for design of buildings and structures.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

In the recent seismological literature, several articles appeared which suggested that major earthquakes are likely to occur in the near future, in the various seismic gaps around the rim of the Pacific Basin. Although the direct effects of these earthquakes may be confined to local areas, the tsunamis that will generate are expected to travel Pacific Ocean wide and cause great destruction even at far off places around the Pacific Ocean. Here, the various approaches to delineating the tsunami hazard are discussed and some suggestions are made.  相似文献   

17.
宁立新  惠春  程昌秀 《海洋学报》2022,44(7):122-136
海啸是自然灾害中对人类生命财产安全有严重威胁的灾难之一。随着全球气候变化和全球化贸易日益增强,越来越多的人口和经济暴露于海啸灾害。历史海啸灾害的时空分异分析可以帮助我们认识海啸灾害的演变规律,为灾害预警、灾害防控等提供有益参考。本文通过提取具有完整性和同质性的数据（爬高高度（RH））进行全球海啸的时空分异规律研究,结果表明:（1）对于0.1 m≤RH<0.5 m、0.5 m≤RH<1 m、1 m≤RH<5 m、5 m≤RH<10 m、10 m≤RH<20 m和20 m≤RH的间隔,海啸目录分别自1963年、1940年、1950年、1946年、1922年和1885年以来可以被认为是完整的;（2）全球海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,大约每年会多观测到7次波浪爬高事件。在0.1 m≤RH<5 m区间内,海啸发生呈现一定的周期性。当RH大于5 m时,表现出明显的增加趋势;（3）西北太平洋区域、南太平洋区域、东南太平洋区域、印度洋区域海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,而在北美区域则呈减少趋势,东北大西洋区域无显著变化;（4）除北美区域外,其他区域的海啸发生遵循一定的自组织临界行为,相比来说,东北大西洋区域更容易发生小的海啸事件,而西北太平洋区域和印度洋区域更容易发生各种强度的海啸事件。  相似文献   

18.
A long-term sea level series were analyzed, recorded at 12 coastal tide gauges located on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. Estimates for the maximum heights of the tidal level, storm surges, and tsunamis were obtained separately, as well as for the rare recurrence of the total sea level height with the probability of these individual components superposition. The maximum total height of the sea level without a tsunami were obtained for the Magadan station, where the main factor is anomalously large tides, as well as for Iturup and Matua islands, where the highest storm surges were recorded. The minimum values were obtained for Ust’-Kamchatsk and Malokuril’sk (Shikotan Island) on different flanks of the study area. When a tsunami is included, the maximum values of possible total sea level rises were observed on the Pacific coast of the Kuril Ridge and the influence of tides and meteorologically induced oscillations are small. On the east coast of Kamchatka adjacent to the considered closed area, the role of tsunamis is much smaller. At the Kuril’sk station, where the height of the largest tsunami (Chilean, May 1960) was about a half the strongest surge height, the contribution of the tsunami scarcely affected the resulting estimates. As a rule, the contribution of a tsunami becomes significant at other stations on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk with a recurrence period of 100 years.  相似文献   

19.
2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生Mw8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

20.
The tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 greatly influenced the coastal benthic environment on the northern Pacific coast of Japan. We used the direct count method to investigate changes in the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium (Alexandrium tamarense and Alexandrium catenella) cysts before and after the tsunami in Sendai Bay. Densities of Alexandrium cysts in sediments collected in summer 2011 ranged from 0 to 8,190 cysts cm?3. In the western part of the bay, the density increased greatly after the tsunami, the highest density being approximately 10 times the density recorded in 2005. Molecular identification of single cysts with multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) showed that Alexandrium tamarense dominated the cyst population in the southwestern part of the bay in 2011. Furthermore, accumulation of cysts on the surface sediment after disturbance of the sediment was confirmed by a laboratory experiment. The main factor causing the drastic changes in abundance and distribution of Alexandrium cysts after the earthquake was considered to be vertical and horizontal redistribution of the cysts in sediments after the tsunami.  相似文献   

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