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1.
Numerical experiments with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model have been performed in order to simulate the influence of changes in the ocean surface temperature (OST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) on climate characteristics in regions of Eurasia. The sensitivity of winter and summer climates to OST and SIC variations in 1998–2006 has been investigated and compared to those in 1968–1976. These two intervals correspond to the maximum and minimum of the Atlantic Long-Period Oscillation (ALO) index. Apart from the experiments on changes in the OST and SIC global fields, the experiments on OST anomalies only in the North Atlantic and SIC anomalies in the Arctic for the specified periods have been analyzed. It is established that temperature variations in Western Europe are explained by OST and SIC variations fairly well, whereas the warmings in Eastern Europe and Western Siberia, according to model experiments, are substantially (by a factor of 2–3) smaller than according to observational data. Winter changes in the temperature regime in continental regions are controlled mainly by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The model, on the whole, reproduces the empirical structure of changes in the winter field of surface pressure, in particular, the pressure decrease in the Caspian region; however, it substantially (approximately by three times) underestimates the range of changes. Summer temperature variations in the model are characterized by a higher statistical significance than winter ones. The analysis of the sensitivity of the climate in Western Europe to SIC variations alone in the Arctic is an important result of the experiments performed. It is established that the SIC decrease and a strong warming over the Barents Sea in the winter period leads to a cooling over vast regions of the northern part of Eurasia and increases the probability of anomalously cold January months by two times and more (for regions in Western Siberia). This effect is caused by the formation of the increased-pressure region with a center over the southern boundary of the Barents Sea during the SIC decrease and an anomalous advection of cold air masses from the northeast. This result indicates that, to estimate the ALO actions (as well as other long-scale climatic variability modes) on the climate of Eurasia, it is basically important to take into account (or correctly reproduce) Arctic sea ice changes in experiments with climatic models. 相似文献
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3.
北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨之间的关系 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文通过对中国地区实测降水及北极海冰卫星数据的分析,研究了北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨的关系。合成分析的研究结果表明2000年之前中国南方和北方冬季降水偏少,中部降水偏多,这之后中国南方和北方冬季降水增加,中部降水减少。SVD研究结果显示,北极海冰减少使得近三十年来中国南方和北方冬季降雨呈现逐渐增多,中部地区(从青藏高原向东北方向至日本)降雨逐步减少的趋势。随着北极海冰的进一步减少,如遇合适的气候条件,南方冻雨出现的概率会加大。北极秋季海冰异常的回复过程加之冬季海冰异常的延续信号在中国、蒙古及日本北部激发一个阻塞高压,以巴伦支海/卡拉海为中心激发一个异常低压。这使得来自北冰洋大西洋扇区的冷空气南下至欧洲大陆和亚洲北部,在阻塞高压的影响下,冷空气进一步南下,进入东亚地区。这不仅使得亚洲冬季温度降低,也为中国北部降水增加提供条件。 相似文献
4.
根据2008年初中国南方低温冻雨灾害发生的时间和范围定义了中国南方地表气温异常指数(STAI).研究表明,STAI与欧亚大陆的中、高纬度系统和太平洋副热带高压都有很好的相关性,并且中纬度系统在中层占优,高纬度系统在低层占优.根据STAI合成的典型冷(暖)年850和500 hPa欧亚大陆位势高度异常场呈“北正南负”(“南正北负”)型,西太平洋副热带高压减弱(加强),我国南方水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾(南海).2008年STrAI的前期大气环流背景既具有典型冷年的特征:欧亚大陆位势高度异常呈“北正南负”型;又具有典型暖年的特征:西太平洋副热带高压显著增强,中国南方水汽同时来源于孟加拉湾和南海. 相似文献
5.
Yoshi N. Sasaki Yurika Katagiri Shoshiro Minobe Ignatius G. Rigor 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(2):255-265
Relations in year-to-year variability between wintertime Sea-Ice Concentrations (SICs) in the Okhotsk Sea and atmospheric
anomalies consisting of zonal and meridional 1000-hPa wind speeds and 850-hPa air temperatures are studied using a singular
value decomposition analysis. It is revealed that the late autumn (October–November) atmospheric conditions strongly influence
sea-ice variability from the same season (late autumn) through late winter (February—March), in which sea-ice extent is at
its maximum. The autumn atmospheric conditions for the positive sea-ice anomalies exhibit cold air temperature anomalies over
the Okhotsk Sea and wind anomalies blowing into the Okhotsk Sea from Siberia. These atmospheric conditions yield anomalous
ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes and cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the Okhotsk Sea. Hence, these results suggest
that the atmospheric conditions affect the sea-ice through heat anomalies stored in sea-ice and oceanic fields. The late autumn
atmosphere conditions are related to large 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Bering Sea and northern Eurasia,
which are related to a stationary Rossby wave propagation over the North Pacific and that from the North Atlantic to Eurasia,
respectively. In addition, the late autumn atmospheric preconditioning also plays an important role in the decreasing trend
in the Okhotsk sea-ice extent observed from 1980 to the mid-1990s. Based on the lagged sea-ice response to the late autumn
atmosphere, a simple seasonal prediction scheme is proposed for the February–March sea-ice extent using four-month leading
atmospheric conditions. This scheme explains 45% of the variance of the Okhotsk sea-ice extent. 相似文献
6.
Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979–2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights(rate of –0.2 to –0.3 d/a) and an increasing trend of warm days and nights(rate of +0.2 to +0.3 d/a) in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases,which contributes to the increasing(decreasing) occurrence of warm(cold) days and nights. On the other hand,the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO(Arctic Oscillation) index leads to an increased(decreased) number of warm(cold) days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased(decreased) number of cold(warm) days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and nights.The occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature. 相似文献
7.
On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949–2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005–2016 when compared to 1970–1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005–2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS. 相似文献
8.
虽然全球平均表面气温不断升高,但在冬季欧亚大陆经常出现年际-年代际尺度上的变冷趋势。利用美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)再分析资料,指出冬季影响欧亚大陆变冷的大气环流主要是北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)和乌拉尔山阻塞(Ural blocking, UB)的环流组合。其中,NAO环流可以在年际尺度上作为背景环流影响UB过程对欧亚低温天气的作用。统计分析发现,在NAO正(负)位相(NAO+/NAO-)环流背景下UB的发生频率可以解释冬季平均UB发生频率的52%(13%),表明NAO+环流有利于下游阻塞形势出现。尽管如此,研究发现在NAO-环流背景下的UB事件平均给欧亚地区带来的降温幅度更强,约是NAO+环流背景下的2倍,而且亚洲降温区的位置偏北约5°、偏东约13.5°。中等强度的NAO+环流背景下UB事件对欧亚降温的贡献... 相似文献
9.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitutes a major source of potential predictability in the tropics. The majority of past seasonal prediction studies have concentrated on precipitation anomalies at the seasonal mean timescale. However, fields such as agriculture and water resource management require higher time frequency forecasts of precipitation variability. Regional climate models (RCMs), with their increased resolution, may offer one means of improving general circulation model forecasts of higher time frequency precipitation variability.
Part I of this study evaluated the ability of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA), forced by analysed boundary conditions, to simulate seasonal mean precipitation anomalies over the tropical Americas associated with ENSO variability. In this paper the same integrations are analysed, with the focus now on precipitation anomalies at subseasonal (pentad) timescales.
RCA simulates the climatological annual cycle of pentad-mean precipitation intensity quite accurately. The timing of the rainy season (onset, demise and length) is well simulated, with biases generally of less than 2 weeks. Changes in the timing and duration of the rainy season, associated with ENSO forcing, are also well captured. Finally, pentad-mean rainfall intensity distributions are simulated quite accurately, as are shifts in these distributions associated with ENSO forcing. 相似文献
Part I of this study evaluated the ability of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA), forced by analysed boundary conditions, to simulate seasonal mean precipitation anomalies over the tropical Americas associated with ENSO variability. In this paper the same integrations are analysed, with the focus now on precipitation anomalies at subseasonal (pentad) timescales.
RCA simulates the climatological annual cycle of pentad-mean precipitation intensity quite accurately. The timing of the rainy season (onset, demise and length) is well simulated, with biases generally of less than 2 weeks. Changes in the timing and duration of the rainy season, associated with ENSO forcing, are also well captured. Finally, pentad-mean rainfall intensity distributions are simulated quite accurately, as are shifts in these distributions associated with ENSO forcing. 相似文献
10.
JIANG Bo WEI Yongliang DING Jie ZHANG Rong LIU Yuxin WANG Xiaoyong FANG Yizhou 《海洋湖沼学报（英文）》2019,(5):1510-1522
Studies on climate change typically consider temperature and precipitation over extended periods but less so the wind. We used the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) 24-year wind fi eld data set to investigate the trends of wind energy over the South China Sea during 1988-2011. The results reveal a clear trend of increase in wind power density for each of three base statistics (i.e., mean, 90 th percentile and 99 th percentile) in all seasons and for annual means. The trends of wind power density showed obvious temporal and spatial variations. The magnitude of the trends was greatest in winter, intermediate in spring, and smallest in summer and autumn. A greater trend of increase was found in the northern areas of the South China Sea than in southern parts. The magnitude of the annual and seasonal trends over the South China Sea was larger in extreme high events (i.e., 90 th and 99 th percentiles) compared to the mean conditions. Sea surface temperature showed a negative correlation with the variability of wind power density over the majority of the South China Sea in all seasons and annual means, except for winter (41.7%). 相似文献
11.
Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
V. A. Semenov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(6):687-695
The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes. 相似文献
12.
The procedure and results of an objective comparison of climatologies and historical trends of temperature and precipitation extremes are considered using observations and numerical experiments of 20th-century climate simulations. The experimental climatic realizations of five coupled atmosphere-ocean models represented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are used. The effect of using ensembles of climatic realizations (including multimodel ensembles) in the problems of simulating climatology and climate changes in annual meteorological extremes is estimated. The positive effect of the ensemble approach is evident when individual ensemble members show significant success. 相似文献
13.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitute a major source of predictability in the tropics. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model; RCA) to downscale SST and large-scale atmospheric anomalies associated with ENSO. RCA is configured over the tropical east Pacific and tropical Americas and runs for the period 1979–2005, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) lateral and surface boundary conditions. We study the ability of RCA to represent regional patterns of precipitation, with respect to both the climatology and interannual variability associated with ENSO. The latter is achieved by grouping the simulations into El Niño and La Niña composites and studying the delayed response of precipitation to SST forcing in four regions of Central and South America.
In this paper, we concentrate on seasonal mean timescales. We find that RCA accurately simulates the main features of the precipitation climatology over the four regions and also reproduces the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO forcing. Furthermore, the model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different ENSO events. The model exhibits a wet bias over the northern Amazon and slightly overestimates the magnitude of ENSO anomalies over Central America. 相似文献
In this paper, we concentrate on seasonal mean timescales. We find that RCA accurately simulates the main features of the precipitation climatology over the four regions and also reproduces the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO forcing. Furthermore, the model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different ENSO events. The model exhibits a wet bias over the northern Amazon and slightly overestimates the magnitude of ENSO anomalies over Central America. 相似文献
14.
N. M. Datsenko N. N. Ivashchenko D. M. Sonechkin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2011,47(1):31-44
Using data from 55 meteorological stations in the Northern Hemisphere for the 20th century as a whole and separately for 1901–1950 and 1951–2000, the norms and empirical orthogonal components (EOCs) of the fields of the annual mean surface air temperature were calculated. These fields were found to have two components: smooth and nonsmooth. The field of differences between the temperature norms of the first and second halves of the 20th century was found to be projected almost completely on the very first component of fixed sign; i.e., the current climate trend of the Northern Hemisphere is spatially homogeneous. No substantial changes were found in the transition from the first half to the second half of the 20th century, either in the form of components or in the spectrum of eigenvalues, with the only exception being a small growth (in magnitude) in part of the eigenvalues corresponding to the nonsmooth component. This can be explained by the progressing urbanization of northern Eurasia. All coefficients of the temperature-field expansion by natural components are distributed normally, and their temporal correlation functions for smooth components of fields have a form characteristic of processes with long-term memory. The latter manifests itself particularly in the motions of the two main waves of the smooth component and reflects two stages of the current climate warming. 相似文献
15.
北极秋季海冰减少与亚洲大陆冬季温度异常 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文使用SVD等诊断分析方法探讨北极秋季海冰密集度与亚洲冬季温度异常之间的关系。结果表明,近30余年来,北极秋季海冰减少伴随着亚洲大陆冬季温度降低,但青藏高原地区、北冰洋和北太平洋沿岸除外。北极秋季海冰密集度减小激发欧亚大陆和北冰洋北部两个区域位势高度的改变,这种异常的变化模态从秋季持续到冬季。位势高度异常的负值中心位于巴伦支海和喀拉海。位势高度异常的正值中心位于蒙古区域。与重力位势高度异常伴随的风场异常为亚洲冬季温度降低提供自北向南的冷气流。随着北极海冰的不断减少,其与亚洲大陆冬季温度降低之间的关系将为气候长期预测提供参考。 相似文献
16.
欧亚大陆冬季温度对北极海冰减少的敏感性及非线性响应研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The recent decline in the Arctic sea ice has coincided with more cold winters in Eurasia.It has been hypothesized that the Arctic sea ice loss is causing more mid-latitude cold extremes and cold winters,yet there is lack of consensus in modeling studies on the impact of Arctic sea ice loss.Here we conducted modeling experiments with Community Atmosphere Model Version 5(CAM5) to investigate the sensitivity and linearity of Eurasian winter temperature response to the Atlantic sector and Pacific sector of the Arctic sea ice loss.Our experiments indicate that the Arctic sea ice reduction can significantly affect the atmospheric circulation by strengthening the Siberian High,exciting the stationary Rossby wave train,and weakening the polar jet stream,which in turn induce the cooling in Eurasia.The temperature decreases by more than 1°C in response to the ice loss in the Atlantic sector and the cooling is less and more shifts southward in response to the ice loss in the Pacific sector.More interestingly,sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors together barely induces cold temperatures in Eurasia,suggesting the nonlinearity of the atmospheric response to the Arctic sea ice loss. 相似文献
17.
北极河流径流量变化及影响因子分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用最新的北极径流资料(R-arcticNET V3.0和Arctic RIMS),对进入北冰洋的4条主要河流的季节及年代际变化进行诊断分析。结果表明:入海径流在4-6月的大幅增加主要是由气温达到融点后积雪融化造成的,降水的作用次之。总的来说,欧亚区域在过去的70年里入海径流量是增加的,而北美区域在近30年里入海径流量是减小的,但注入北冰洋的径流总量是增大的。值得注意的是入海径流的年代际变化在不同季节增减趋势显著不同,夏季和秋季径流量减小,而其他两个季节径流量增大。进一步分析了影响入海径流变化的一些气候因子,结果表明:北大西洋涛动(北太平洋指数)与欧亚(北美)区域的冬、春季径流量存在正相关。春季气温与春季径流量呈正相关,而与夏季径流量呈负相关。降水与径流量基本上为同步正相关。春季积雪覆盖面积与春季径流量为负相关,而与夏季径流量为正相关,夏季积雪覆盖面积与夏季的径流量为正相关。 相似文献
18.
过去的几个冬季中,北美、欧洲、西伯利亚和东亚大部分地区经历了冷冬和强降雪,而这与北极海冰的快速减少有关。尽管北极海冰减少在冷冬和强降雪中的作用仍存在争议,但这种新兴的气候反馈在未来变暖背景下是否会持续仍值得关注。中等排放情境下的气候模式模拟结果揭示,欧洲东北部、亚洲中部北部、北美北部的冬季降雪增加会成为贯穿21世纪的一个稳健的特征。21世纪这些区域冬季降雪增加的主要原因是北极秋季海冰的减少（很大的外部强迫）,而冬季北极涛动的变化（北半球主要的自然变化形态）对降雪增加的作用很小。这一结果不仅体现在多模式平均上,而且每个单独模式的结果依然如此。我们认为海冰-降雪之间的强反馈作用可能已经出现,并且在接下来的几十年中这种强反馈作用可能会增强,北半球高纬地区的强降雪事件也会增加。 相似文献
19.
A. P. Shevyrnogov M. Yu. Chernetskiy G. S. Vysotskaya 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2013,49(9):1047-1056
It is found that the nonlinear positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend of mountain taiga in the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai has been negative since 1999–2000. A comparison with the boreal belt of northern Eurasia showed that, though still nonnegative, the positive trend has distinctly decreased to nearly a plateau. A trend analysis of radiation temperature of the surface revealed that the temperature shows a decreasing trend for the selected region of mountainous taiga and an increasing trend for northern Eurasia. We compared air-temperature data from the Yermakovskoe meteorological station to eliminate a preliminary data-processing error. Regression analysis demonstrated a fairly high degree of correlation. Also, we found a quite high degree of correlation between time series and trends of air temperature and NDVI. Trends in air temperature in northern Eurasia according to NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data also confirm the trend found on the basis of satellite data. 相似文献
20.
E. A. Jadin Yu. A. Zyulyaeva E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2008,44(5):594-605
The leading modes of interannual and long-term variations in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation and total ozone (TOMS data) and their relations to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the winter months of 1958–2003. Strong correlations are indicated between the interannual total ozone variations over Labrador and the North Atlantic and changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. The onset of major stratospheric warmings is connected not only with the strengthening of westerlies at the 500-hPa level in the midlatitude Atlantic, but also with the weakening of tropospheric winds over the north of eastern Siberia and strengthening over the Far East. In years with major stratospheric warmings, abnormally cold winters are observed in Eurasia, especially in eastern Siberia and northeastern China. The calculated simultaneous (with no time lags) correlations of the stratospheric circulation changes with El Niño/La Niña events give evidence of low correlations between the tropical Pacific SST anomalies and the stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic. However, there are high correlations of the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies with interannual tropospheric and stratospheric circulation variations, the stratospheric dynamics being more strongly connected with Pacific SST than with Atlantic SST anomalies. The interannual changes in tropospheric circulation are coupled to SST anomalies in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Mechanisms of long-term changes in the interactive ocean-atmosphere-ozone layer system are discussed. 相似文献