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1.
Several studies have linked high temperatures to increases in violent conflicts. The findings are controversial, however, as there has been no systematic cross-sectional analysis performed to demonstrate the generality of the proposed relationship. Moreover, the timescale of temperature/violence relationships have not been fully investigated; it is unclear how short versus long-term, or seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability contribute to the likelihood or frequency of violent events. We here perform systematic regional and grid-based longitudinal analyses in Africa and the Middle East for the period 1990–2017, using geolocated information on armed conflicts and a recently released satellite-based gridded temperature data set. We find seasonal synchrony between temperature and number of armed conflicts at the regional scale (climatic region), as well as a positive relationship in temperature and conflict anomalies on inter-annual timescales at the grid cell level (for the entire African and ME region). After controlling for ‘location effects’, we do not find that long-term warming has affected armed conflicts for the last three decades. However, the effects of temperature anomalies are stronger in warmer places (~5% increase per 10 °C, P < 0.05), suggesting that populations living in warmer places are more sensitive to temperature deviations. Taken together, these findings imply that projected warming and increasing temperature variability may enhance violence in these regions, though the mechanisms of the relationships still need to be exposed. 相似文献
2.
Negative environmental impacts of violent conflict have been observed worldwide. Whether or not active global conflicts are declining in number remains hotly debated, the number of countries entering post-conflict periods is on the rise, and the impact of this transition on land cover changes remains poorly understood. In Colombia, though large-scale armed conflict has concluded, the post-conflict period represents an ongoing threat to forest conservation, putting at risk commitments to meet global conservation goals and even those stipulated in the peace accord. This paper aims to assess land cover change associated with the Colombian conflict in the Andes-Amazon region between 1988 and 2019. First, we use the Landsat archive to map land cover and characterize the spatial patterns of change at the regional level. Second, to empirically identify the effect of conflict on land cover change, we employ a difference-in-difference approach using local conflict events data. During conflict (1988–2011), land cover in the Andes-Amazon remained relatively stable, however during the post-conflict period (2012–2019), the conversion from forest to agriculture increased by 40%. We find that forest cover surrounding conflict events (1 km radius) decreased significantly, on average by ~ 19% during conflict, which accelerated to ~ 30% in the post-conflict period. Similarly, agriculture expansion is most substantial during the post-conflict period, but exclusively in municipalities with population below the 50th percentile. Landscape metrics show that in peripheral municipalities (<50th), agriculture occurs in clumped distributions during the conflict period. Meanwhile, during the post-conflict period, this expansion happens more quickly, with significantly greater agricultural patch sizes than during the conflict period. We conclude that a slow implementation of conservation governance, the emergence of illegal land markets, and illicit land uses (i.e., coca and illegal cattle ranching) may accelerate land cover change in the coming years. 相似文献
3.
This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks. 相似文献
4.
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. 相似文献
5.
Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe. 相似文献
6.
The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area. 相似文献
7.
This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change. 相似文献
8.
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of water-related hazards on human populations. This has generated security concerns and calls for urgent policy action. However, the simplified narrative that links climate change to security via water and violent conflict is wanting. First, it is not confirmed by empirical evidence. Second, it ignores the varied character and implications of hydro-climatic hazards, the multi-faceted nature of conflict and adaptive action, and crucial intricacies of security. Integrating for the first time research and findings from diverse disciplines, we provide a more nuanced picture of the climate-water-security nexus. We consider findings from the transboundary waters, armed conflict, vulnerability, and political ecology literatures and specify the implications and priorities for policy relevant research. Although the social effects of future hydro-climatic change cannot be safely predicted, there is a good understanding of the factors that aggravate risks to social wellbeing. To reduce vulnerability, pertinent democratic and social/civil security institutions should be strengthened where they exist, and promoted where they are still absent. 相似文献
9.
This study addresses the question why intergroup conflicts over scarce, renewable resources in peripheral areas of the global South escalate into violence. In order to do so, twenty cases of such conflicts, seven of which turned violent, are analyzed. The method of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis is used in order to bridge the gap between quantitative and qualitative accounts in the field and to detect patterns of conjunctural causation. In theoretical terms, structural conditions (negative othering and high power differences between the conflict parties) and triggering conditions (external resource appropriation and recent political change) of a violent escalation of renewable resource conflicts are distinguished. The empirical results as well as various robustness checks and comparisons with individual cases suggest that the simultaneous presence of negative othering, low power differences and recent political change is a sufficient condition for the violent escalation of conflicts over scarce renewable resources. I conclude that research on socio-environmental conflicts should pay more attention to conjunctural causation, local power differences and qualitatively different forms of conflict and political change. 相似文献
10.
Extreme weather and conflict may drive forced displacement. However, their individual contribution to displacement is not fully understood due to challenges around isolating individual channels of causality. Here, we use novel disaggregated data on internal displacement in all of Somalia’s subregions from 2016 to 2018 broken down by reported reason of displacement and combine it with weather and conflict data. This allows us to isolate the effects of extreme weather and conflict on forced displacement, as well as the effects of displacement on conflict itself. We find large non-linear effects of weather on displacement where an increase in temperature anomalies from 1 °C to 2 °C (to approx. 1.5 standard deviations, SD) leads to a tenfold increase in displaced people, and a reduction in precipitation from 50 mm to 0 mm (approx. 1.5SD) leads to around a fourfold increase in displacement. We find significant effects of conflict events on displacement (which are masked when the data is aggregated) with a 1.5 standard deviation increase in conflict events increasing displacement 50-fold. We further show that displacement itself has little detectable effect on the occurrence of conflict events. 相似文献
11.
Effects of climate change are frequently claimed to be responsible for widespread civil violence. Yet, scientists remain divided on this issue, and recent studies suggest that conflict risk increases with higher rainfall, loss of rainfall, higher temperatures or none of the above. Lack of scientific consensus is driven by differences in data, methods, and samples, but may also reflect a fragile and inconsistent correlation for the habitual spatiotemporal domain, Sub-Saharan Africa post-1980. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-scale empirical evaluation of climate-conflict connections across Asia, the continent with the highest conflict rate per country. We find little evidence that interannual climate variability and anomalies are linked to historical conflict risk in the simple and general manner proposed by some earlier research. Although a significant parameter coefficient can be obtained under certain specifications, the direction and magnitude of the climate effects are inconsistent and sensitive to research design. Instead, Asian civil wars share central features with violent events elsewhere, proving the main correlates of contemporary armed conflict to be economic and socio-political rather than climatological. 相似文献
12.
Mohd Rizaludin Mahmud Mazlan Hashim Mohd Nadzri Mohd Reba 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2017,53(3):375-384
We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman’s correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d-1). A strong relationship between GPM rainfall and error was found from heavy (~35 mm d-1) to violent rain (160 mm d-1). The output of this study provides reference regarding the performance of GPM data for respective hydrology studies in this region. 相似文献
13.
Climate change,weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Juan Jose Almaraz Fazli Mabood Xiaomin Zhou Edward G. Gregorich Donald L. Smith 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):187-197
Climate change has led to increased temperatures, and simulation models suggest that this should affect crop production in
important agricultural regions of the world. Nations at higher latitudes, such as Canada, will be most affected. We studied
the relationship between climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and corn yield trends over a period of 33 years
for the Monteregie region of south-western Quebec using historical yield and climate records and statistical models. Growing
season mean temperature has increased in Monterregie, mainly due to increased September temperature. Precipitation did not
show any clear trend over the 33 year period. Yield increased about 118 kg ha−1 year−1 from 1973 to 2005 (under normal weather conditions) due mainly to changes in technology (genetics and management). Two climate
variables were strongly associated with corn yield variability: July temperature and May precipitation. These two variables
explain more than a half of yield variability associated with climate. In conclusion, July temperatures below normal and May
precipitation above normal have negative effects on corn yield, and the growing seasons have warmed, largely due to increases
in the September temperature. 相似文献
14.
Dingrong Wu Chunyi Wang Fang Wang Chaoyang Jiang Zhiguo Huo Peijuan Wang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(4):636-647
The phenology model is one of the major tools in evaluating the impact of cultivar improvement on crop phenology. Understanding uncertainty in simulating the impact is an important prerequisite for reliably interpreting the effect of cultivar improvement and climate change on phenology. However, uncertainty induced by different temperature response functions and parameterization methods have not been properly addressed. Based on winter wheat phenology observations during 1986–2012 in 47 agro-meteorology observation stations in the North China Plain (NCP), the uncertainty of the simulated impacts caused by four widely applied temperature response functions and two parameterization methods were investigated. The functions were firstly calibrated using observed phenology data during 1986–1988 from each station by means of two parameterization methods, and were then used to quantify the impact of cultivar improvement on wheat phenology during 1986–2012. The results showed that all functions and all parameterization methods could reach acceptable precision (RMSE < 3 days for all functions and parameterization methods), however, substantial differences exist in the simulated impacts between different functions and parameterization methods. For vegetative growth period, the simulated impact is 0.20 day (10 yr)–1 [95% confidence interval:–2.81–3.22 day (10 yr)–1] across the NCP, while for reproductive period, the value is 1.50 day (10 yr)–1 [–1.03–4.02 day (10 yr)–1]. Further analysis showed that uncertainty can be induced by both different functions and parameterization methods, while the former has greater influence than the latter. During vegetative period, there is a significant positive linear relationship between ranges of simulated impact and growth period average temperature, while during reproductive period, the relationship is polynomial. This highlights the large inconsistency that exists in most impact quantifying functions and the urgent need to carry out field experiment to provide realistic impacts for all functions. Before applying a simulated effect, we suggest that the function should be calibrated over a wide temperature range. 相似文献
15.
Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts. 相似文献
16.
Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992–2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase. 相似文献
17.
结合我国东北地区春玉米生长发育的实际情况,以观测年份较多、观测地点较广为原则选取4个春玉米品种,分别为东农248、龙单13、四单19和丹玉13,利用生长发育观测资料和同期气象观测资料,判断4个玉米品种的相对熟型并对沈国权非线性积温模型（简称NLM）进行参数拟合,讨论参数的生物学意义及其与品种熟型的关系,对NLM进行有效改进及验证。结果表明:4个春玉米品种NLM均不存在无效参数,参数K与参数Q存在显著的相关性,说明K可能仅是一个统计参数,没有明确的生物学意义;积温在品种间存在显著差异,全生育期模型参数Q与多年站次平均有效积温或活动积温有较好的相关性,由于不同的积温意味着不同的玉米品种熟型,说明Q与玉米品种的熟型有关,将模型参数Q和K用反映玉米品种熟型的参数（有效积温、活动积温）表示,建立了适用于不同品种的通用积温模型,取得较好的应用效果。 相似文献
18.
We analyzed the relationship between air temperature and oxygen isotopes measured in tree rings of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) from along-term forest ecosystem research plot in the Swiss Jura mountains (LWF project). The oxygen isotope data were compared with a century-long meteorological series of air temperature data. Measurements of oxygen isotope ratios in precipitation were also used for comparison. Results show that the late-wood tree-ring series is significantly correlated with May to August temperatures. Correlations were higher for maximum (daytime) air temperature and even better for air temperature measured on rainy days only. We stress that trends in maximum temperature series for this time of the year, like trends in oxygen isotope ratios series from tree rings, are completely different from trends in yearly mean temperature. Indeed, maximum temperature trends during the vegetation period slightly decreased during the 20thcentury, whereas yearly means increased strongly. 相似文献
19.
Parvin Sultana Paul Michael Thompson Naya Sharma Paudel Madan Pariyar Mujibur Rahman 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):S94-S106
ABSTRACTSince the 1990s, climate change impact discourse has highlighted potential for large scale violent conflicts. However, the role of climate stresses on local conflicts over natural resources, the role of policies and adaptation in these conflicts, and opportunities to enhance cooperation have been neglected. These gaps are addressed in this paper using evidence from participatory action research on 79 cases of local collective action over natural resources that experience conflicts in Bangladesh and Nepal. Climate trends and stresses contributed to just under half of these conflict cases. Nine factors that enable greater cooperation and transformation of conflict are identified. Participatory dialogue and negotiation processes, while not sufficient, changed understanding, attitudes and positions of actors. Many of the communities innovated physical measures to overcome natural resource constraints, underlying conflict, and/or institutional reforms. These changes were informed by improving understanding of resource limitations and indigenous knowledge. Learning networks among community organizations encouraged collective action by sharing successes and creating peer pressure. Incentives for cooperation were important. For example, when community organizations formally permitted excluded traditional resource users to access resources, those actors complied with rules and paid towards management costs. However, elites were able to use policy gaps to capture resources with changed characteristics due to climate change. In most of the cases where conflict persisted, power, policy and institutional barriers prevented community-based organizations from taking up potential adaptations and innovations. Policy frameworks recognizing collective action and supporting flexible innovation in governance and adaptation would enable wider transformation of natural resource conflicts into cooperation.Key policy insights
Climate stresses, policy gaps and interventions can all worsen local natural resource conflicts.
Sectoral knowledge and technical approaches to adaptation are open to elite capture and can foster conflicts.
Many local natural resource conflicts can be resolved but this requires an enabling environment for participatory dialogue, external facilitation, flexible responses to context, and recognition of disadvantaged stakeholder interests.
Transforming conflict to greater cooperation mostly involves social and institutional changes, so adaptation policies should focus less on physical works and more on enabling factors such as negotiation, local institutions, knowledge, and incentives.
20.
In this study, we investigate a long-term modulation in the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall with the subsequent Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The two monsoon rainfall time series are significantly correlated at 0.3 at the 99 % confidence level. However, the relationship weakens during the 1932–1966 period, with the inter-monsoon correlation for the period falling below statistical significance. We find that this modulation is consistent with a breakdown of the typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on sea surface temperature in the northern region of Australia, during this period. In addition, a change in the relative influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming sea surface temperature anomalies on the Australian summer monsoon rainfall is also apparent across different time periods. 相似文献