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1.
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2.
Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

3.
The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.  相似文献   

4.
The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake (M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the mmax magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included.  相似文献   

5.
The Campi Flegrei hosts numerous monogenetic vents inferred to be younger than the 15 ka Neapolitan Yellow Tuff. Sanidine crystals from the three young Campi Flegrei vents of Fondi di Baia, Bacoli and Nisida were dated using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. These vents, together with several other young edifices, occur roughly along the inner border of the Campi Flegrei caldera, suggesting that the volcanic conduits are controlled by caldera-bounding faults. Plateau ages of ∼9.6 ka (Fondi di Baia), ∼8.6 ka (Bacoli) and ∼3.9 ka (Nisida) indicate eruptive activity during intervals previously interpreted as quiescent. A critical revision, involving calendar age correction of literature 14C data and available 40Ar/39Ar age data, is presented. A new reference chronostratigraphic framework for Holocene Phlegrean activity, which significantly differs from the previously adopted ones, is proposed. This has important implications for understanding the Campi Flegrei eruptive history and, ultimately, for the evaluation of related volcanic risk and hazard, for which the inferred history of its recent activity is generally taken into account.  相似文献   

6.
The teleseismic P receiver functions are customarily inverted to attain the seismic velocities beneath a seismic station. Surface wave dispersion data are often added to reduce the effect of the non-uniqueness. The combination of P receiver function and surface wave works well in resolving the structures in the crust and uppermost mantle, but is less effective in characterizing greater (lithosphere and asthenosphere) depths due to the interference from crustal multiples. A solution to this problem is jointly to model teleseismic S receiver functions with surface wave and P receiver functions. This study adopts a fast, one-dimensional (1-D) inversion scheme. To avoid the effect of multidimensional structures away from the seismic station, we eliminate multiples that reverberate between the surface and interfaces below a restriction depth (RD), as well as S-to-P conversions below an inversion depth (ID). P-to-S conversions off the interfaces above the half-space and S-to-P conversions above the ID and multiples above the RD are properly modelled. This approach favours ray paths travelling close to stations and is, therefore, more suitable for 1-D inversions. We perform numerical experiments with and without noise and highlight the advantages of a joint receiver function and surface wave analysis.  相似文献   

7.
Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales for moment magnitude M w and energy magnitude M e is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M w and M e calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the contributions of the physically defined measurement parameters seismic moment M 0 and radiated seismic energy E S, the role of the constants in the classical Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–energy relationship. Further, it is shown that M w and M e are linked via the parameter Θ = log(E S/M 0), and the formula for M e can be written as M e = M w + (Θ + 4.7)/1.5. This relationship directly links M e with M w via their common scaling to classical magnitudes and, at the same time, highlights the reason why M w and M e can significantly differ. In fact, Θ is assumed to be constant when calculating M w. However, variations over three to four orders of magnitude in stress drop Δσ (as well as related variations in rupture velocity V R and seismic wave radiation efficiency η R) are responsible for the large variability of actual Θ values of earthquakes. As a result, for the same earthquake, M e may sometimes differ by more than one magnitude unit from M w. Such a difference is highly relevant when assessing the actual damage potential associated with a given earthquake, because it expresses rather different static and dynamic source properties. While M w is most appropriate for estimating the earthquake size (i.e., the product of rupture area times average displacement) and thus the potential tsunami hazard posed by strong and great earthquakes in marine environs, M e is more suitable than M w for assessing the potential hazard of damage due to strong ground shaking, i.e., the earthquake strength. Therefore, whenever possible, these two magnitudes should be both independently determined and jointly considered. Usually, only M w is taken as a unified magnitude in many seismological applications (ShakeMap, seismic hazard studies, etc.) since procedures to calculate it are well developed and accepted to be stable with small uncertainty. For many reasons, procedures for E S and M e calculation are affected by a larger uncertainty and are currently not yet available for all global earthquakes. Thus, despite the physical importance of E S in characterizing the seismic source, the use of M e has been limited so far to the detriment of quicker and more complete rough estimates of both earthquake size and strength and their causal relationships. Further studies are needed to improve E S estimations in order to allow M e to be extensively used as an important complement to M w in common seismological practice and its applications.  相似文献   

8.
A new modified magnitude scale M S (20R) is elaborated. It permits us to extend the teleseismic magnitude scale M S (20) to the regional epicenter distances. The data set used in this study contains digital records at 12 seismic stations of 392 earthquakes that occured in the northwest Pacific Ocean in the period of 1993–2008. The new scale is based on amplitudes of surface waves of a narrow range of the periods (16–25 s) close to the period of 20 s, for distances of 80–3000 km. The digital Butterworth filter is used for processing. On the basis of the found regional features concerning distance dependence for seismic wave attenuation, all the stations of the region have been subdivided into two groups, namely, “continental” and “island-arc.” For each group of stations, its own calibration function is proposed. Individual station corrections are used to compensate for the local features.  相似文献   

9.
The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.  相似文献   

10.
This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of mmax.The three estimates of mmax for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation.  相似文献   

11.
We investigated the seismicity in the aftershock area of a great earthquake occurring on April 20, 2006 (21:04 LT) in the area of the Koryak Autonomous Okrug. This analysis of the aftershock process was based on a complete catalog of the earthquakes that were recorded during April–May 2006 by the regional network of seismic stations operated by the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We also made use of a catalog of low magnitude events for May 2–17 as recorded by a mobile seismic network deployed in the rupture zone. We provide a review of seismicity for the Koryak Upland for the period of instrumental observations in the 20th and early 21st centuries.  相似文献   

12.
用Q值刻画的地震衰减在地震信号处理和解释中具有很广泛的应用。利用反射地震资料进行Q值估计需要解决地震子波和反射系数序列耦合的问题。从反射地震资料中去除反射系数序列的影响,这个过程称为频谱校正。本文提出了一种基于子波估计的求取Q值的方法,进而设计了一个反Q滤波器。该方法利用反射地震资料的高阶统计量进行子波估计,并利用所估计子波实现频谱校正。我们利用合成数据实验给出了质心频移法与频谱比法这两种常用的Q值估计方法在不同参数设置下的性能。人工合成数据和实际数据处理表明,利用本文提出的方法进行频谱校正后,可以得到可靠的Q值估计。经过反Q滤波,地震数据的高频部分得到了有效地恢复。  相似文献   

13.
We analyze the anelasticity of the earth using group delays of P-body waves of deep (>200 km) events in the period range 4–32 s for epicentral distances of 5–85 degrees. We show that Time Frequency Analysis (TFA), which is usually applied to very dispersive surface waves, can be applied to the much less dispersive P-body waves to measure frequency-dependent group delays with respect to arrival times predicted from the CMT centroid location and PREM reference model. We find that the measured dispersion is due to: (1) anelasticity (described by the P-wave quality factor Q p ), (2) ambient noise, which results in randomly distributed noise in the dispersion measurements, (3) interference with other phases (triplications, crustal reverberations, conversions at deep mantle boundaries), for which the total dispersion depends on the amplitude and time separation between the different phases, and (4) the source time function, which is dispersive when the wavelet is asymmetrical or contains subevents. These mechanisms yield dispersion ranging in the order of one to 10 seconds with anelasticity responsible for the more modest dispersion. We select 150 seismograms which all have small coda amplitudes extending to ten percent of the main arrival, minimizing the effect of interference. The main P waves have short durations, minimizing effects of the source. We construct a two-layer model of Q p with an interface at 660 km depth and take Q p constant with period. Our data set is too small to solve for a possible frequency dependence of Q p . The upper mantle Q 1 is 476 [299–1176] and the lower mantle Q 2 is 794 [633–1064] (the bracketed numbers indicate the 68 percent confidence range of Q p –1). These values are in-between the AK135 model (Kennett et al., 1995) and the PREM model (Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981) for the lower mantle and confirm results of Warren and Shearer (2000) that the upper mantle is less attenuating than PREM and AK135.  相似文献   

14.
This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.  相似文献   

15.
The dependence of the origination of G conditions in the ionospheric F region on solar and geomagnetic activity has been determined based on numerical simulation of the ionosphere over points 50° N, 105° E and 70° N, 105° E for summer conditions at noon. It has been found that the threshold value of the Kp geomagnetic activity index (Kp S ), beginning from which a G condition can originate, is minimal for a low solar activity level at relatively high latitudes during the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm. On average, Kp S increases with increasing solar activity, but G conditions can originate at high solar activity levels and be absent at moderate ones for certain Kp values, which was apparently predicted for the first time. These properties of the origination of G conditions do not contradict the known results of a G-condition statistical analysis performed based on the data from the global network of ionospheric stations.  相似文献   

16.
The time behavior of the foF2 and hmF2 values at the time moment T(ss + 2 h) 2 h after sunset is considered. It is assumed that at this moment, the horizontal winds in the thermosphere in the strongest way influence hmF2 and, therefore, foF2. It is found that a fairly well pronounced and statistically significant change (trend) is observed for the foF2(ss + 2)/foF2(14) ratio, the sign of the change being different for different stations and even different seasons at the same station. A similar picture is obtained for the value of hmF2(ss + 2). It is shown that a positive correlation between the trends of these two values is observed. This confirms the initial concept of the paper that the foF2 and hmF2 trends are caused by long-term trends in the thermospheric dynamics.  相似文献   

17.
Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q 0 and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q c(f)?=?Q 0 f α . The result was Q 0?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t s???t 0) (time from origin time t 0 to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q c was not calculated. The derived Q c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q S was Q 0?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q c result.  相似文献   

18.
A disastrous earthquake with a magnitude M S = 8.0 (M W = 7.9), in China called “the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake,” occurred on May 12, 2008, in Sichuan province on the border between the Sino-Tibetan Mountains and the Sichuan depression. The instrumental epicenter was registered in the southeastern part of Wenchuan county, and the hypocenter depth was 14 km. As the strongest and most destructive earthquake within mainland China, it caused numerous human losses and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The seismic effect from the main shock and aftershocks was felt in many counties, towns, and villages, though Sichuan province suffered the most. The maximum intensity of the shocks was estimated at 11 degrees, according to the Chinese macroseismic scale. In the process of source opening, from the southern part of Wenchuan county to the vicinities of Quingchuan, a seismic fault system with a total length up to 240 km out-cropped on the earth’s surface, confined to the Longmenshan fault belt. The seismic fault system disturbed the original ground, resulting in the collapse or damage to various constructions, such as buildings, homes, bridges, roads, etc. Fault offsets had a dextral strike-slip and thrust kinematic combination. The earthquake generated several tens of thousands of landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows. Many dammed ponds appeared in the epicentral zone due to the activation of landslides. Thus, the geological effects turned out to be the most destructive factor in this case. At the same time, the seismic intensity of surface shaking was abnormally low even in direct proximity to the seismic fault system. Usually it was no more than 7–8 degrees. This macroseismic phenomenon may turn out to be rather typical for many major earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.  相似文献   

20.
The seismic waves excited by the M w 7.6 Olyutorskii earthquake that occurred on April 20, 2006 in the Koryak Upland gave rise to water-level changes in five wells situated in continental areas of Kamchatka at hypocentral distances of 750–1150 km. We describe the effects due to seismic waves, as well as the water-level anomalies for February–April 2006 before the earthquake. We used an original technique for the processing of water-level records based on the study of barometric and tidal water-level responses in order to estimate the volume strain in water-saturated rocks during synchronous level variations at two wells. We discuss possible mechanisms for producing anomalous water-level changes due to elastic deformation of monitored groundwater reservoirs and to crack dilatancy in the water-saturated rocks.  相似文献   

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