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1.
气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向. 相似文献
2.
Adaptation planning for floods: a review of available tools 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Communities have competing priorities for limited financial resources. Identifying a capable and affordable tool that can be used in flood adaptation planning will assist in determining strategic investments and enhancing public communication. A state-of-the-art review was conducted of commonly available flood modeling and impact assessment tools that could be utilized for climate adaptation planning by municipalities. Assessment criteria such as flood modeling capabilities, geographic information system integration, damage assessment functions and ease of use were used. Although there are many tools available, based on the criteria used in assessing these models, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus-MH tool appears to hold the most promise in being repurposed for adaptation planning. 相似文献
3.
A. López Santos J. Pinto Espinoza M.A. Martínez Prado E.M. Ramírez López 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):479-498
Modeling the deterioration of natural resources, especially water and soil that results from the global effects of climate change has become a powerful tool in the search for mitigation and adaptation measures. The objectives of this research were: (1) to model the potential impact of climate change for the period 2010-2039, and (2) to offer advice about future risks based on local radiative forcing or critical areas and taking into account two indicators of environmental quality, the aridity index (AI) and laminar wind erosion (LWE). Evaluation techniques for natural resources, similar to those applied by the Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change) were used for studies of ecological land use. The inputs include climate information (current and future), soil cover and edaphic properties related to the municipality of Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico (25.886° N, 103.476° W). According to calculations estimated from the anomalies for the mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature, in a future climate change scenario, an average impact of approximately 63% would be caused by LWE, and the AI would change from its historical value of 9.3 to 8.7. It is estimated that the average impact on the AI in the future will be 0.53 ± 0.2. 相似文献
4.
三大自然区过渡地带近50年来气候类型变化及其对气候变化的响应 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The transition area of three natural zones (Eastern Monsoon Region, Arid Region of Northwest China, Qinghai Tibet Plateau Region) is influenced by the Asian monsoon and middle latitude westerly circulation because of its special geographical position. And it is more sensitive to global climate change. The Koppen climate classification, which is widely used in the world, and the accumulated temperature-dryness classification, which is usually used in China, were used to study the climate zones and changes in the region of longitude 97.5°~108°E, latitude 33°~41.5°N, from 1961 to 2010. The changing areas of each climate zone were compared to the East Asian Summer Monsoon index, the South Asian Summer Monsoon index, the Summer Westerly index, the East Asian Winter Monsoon index, the Plateau Summer Monsoon index, the North Atlantic Oscillation index, the Southern Oscillation index, NINO3.4 index, to explore the response of the transition area of three natural zones to each climate system. According to the results, this region will become wetter when the Summer Westerly or the East Asian Winter Monsoon is relatively strong. When the East Asian Summer Monsoon or the South Asian Summer Monsoon becomes strong, the climate in low altitude region of the study area will easily become drier, and the climate in high altitude region of the study area is easily to become wetter. When the Plateau Summer Monsoon is relatively strong, the climate in the study area will easily become drier. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is relatively strong, the study area will easily become wetter. And when the El Niño is relatively strong, or the Southern Oscillation is relatively weak, the study area will easily become drier. In general, the moisture status of this region is mainly controlled by the middle latitude westerly circulation. The enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon could increase the precipitation in the southeast part of this regional, but, according to the degrees of dryness and the types of climate change in this paper, warming effects could offset precipitation increasing and make the area drier. The transition area of three natural zones is influenced by multiple interactions of climate systems from East Asia. A single climatic index, such as air temperature or precipitation, can not completely represent the regional features of climate change. As a result, areas of climate zones can be used as an important index in the regional climate change assessment. 相似文献
5.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
6.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
7.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
8.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
9.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
10.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
11.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
12.
Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments. 相似文献
13.
Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers’ adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs–benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a ‘Need-Based Adaptation’ planning incorporating farmers’ perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm. 相似文献
14.
气候变化对河西内陆干旱区出山径流的影响 总被引：14，自引：7，他引：14
根据祁连山区与河西走廊平原区有关水文气象台站的降水、气温和径流观测资料，分析了该区域近50a来气候变化的特征及其与全球气候变暖的关系。出山径流对气候变化的响应以及未来的变化趋势，结果表明，河西内陆干旱区的山区和走廊平原区近几十年来气温变化总的呈上升趋势，与全球增温存在着某种种度的一致性。但山区气温的变化幅度一般大于走廊平原区，其中祁连山中段温度升幅为最大。全球增温对河西内陆干旱区气候与出山径流的影响有着明显的地域性差异，受此影响影响，河西祁连山东部地区出山径流呈明显的下降趋势，中部地区出山径流的增加趋势不是十分明显，西部出山径流在山区降水量与气温同时上升的情况下，呈明显的上升趋势。 相似文献
15.
Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support
for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining
the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using
an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios
in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different
levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected
to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally,
the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas,
particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate
changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater
discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use
and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes. 相似文献
16.
Kirsten Halsnæs Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen Per Skougaard Kaspersen 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):261-278
Least developed countries are generally regarded as particularly sensitive to climate change due to among other vulnerable locations and low adaptation capabilities. In the present study, we address climate change hazards in least developed countries by presenting a methodological framework, which is suitable for the estimation damage costs as a function of risk aversion, equality, income distribution and climate scenario using state-of-the-art climate model projections. As a case study, the methodology is applied to study severe storms in Cambodia based on two future climate scenarios and data on historical damages from storm events, which are used as a proxy in performing a sensitivity analysis on all input parameters. For the assumptions and parameter ranges used here, the study shows a high sensitivity to the income distribution (reflected by discount rates) and risk aversion and smaller effects from equality measures and extreme wind climate scenario. We emphasize that the assumptions on risk aversion reflecting consumption smoothing possibilities of low-income households clearly depicts that climate risks can be particularly high as a consequence of poverty and therefore recommend that context-specific vulnerabilities and equity concerns in climate risk studies should be included when making assessments for least developed countries. 相似文献
17.
Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: associations with observed climate variability 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Zhang Qin Cui Fengqi Dai Luwei Feng Bing Lu Yunjing Tang Haiping 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(3):1387-1412
Natural Hazards - Although climate change is a universal phenomenon, its indicators and manifestations are entirely local, as are adaptation choices, strategies, and practices. Based on... 相似文献
18.
J. Birkmann O. D. Cardona M. L. Carreño A. H. Barbat M. Pelling S. Schneiderbauer S. Kienberger M. Keiler D. Alexander P. Zeil T. Welle 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):193-211
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts. 相似文献
19.
Han Xiao Dingbao Wang Scott C. Hagen Stephen C. Medeiros Carlton R. Hall 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(7):1791-1806
A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented using the SEAWAT code to quantify the spatial variation of water-table depth and salinity of the surficial aquifer in Merritt Island and Cape Canaveral Island in east-central Florida (USA) under steady-state 2010 hydrologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The developed model is referred to as the ‘reference’ model and calibrated against field-measured groundwater levels and a map of land use and land cover. Then, five prediction/projection models are developed based on modification of the boundary conditions of the calibrated ‘reference’ model to quantify climate change impacts under various scenarios of sea-level rise and precipitation change projected to 2050. Model results indicate that west Merritt Island will encounter lowland inundation and saltwater intrusion due to its low elevation and flat topography, while climate change impacts on Cape Canaveral Island and east Merritt Island are not significant. The SEAWAT models developed for this study are useful and effective tools for water resources management, land use planning, and climate-change adaptation decision-making in these and other low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier island systems. 相似文献
20.
Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. To cite this article: A. Patt, S. Dessai, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献