共查询到8条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)是仅次于季节变化的最强年际气候变率信号,对全球气候和天气产生重要影响。准确、及时、有效地预报ENSO事件的发生和演变具有重大的实用意义。以中国科学院海洋研究所冠名的中等复杂程度海气耦合模式(IOCAS ICM),每月定期进行ENSO实时预报试验。IOCAS ICM实时预报结果目前收录于美国哥伦比亚大学国际气候研究所(IRI),以作进一步的集成分析和应用。该模式的大气部分是一个描述对海表温度(SST)年际异常响应的风应力异常经验模式,海洋部分包括了动力海洋模块、SST距平模块(嵌套于动力海洋模块中)和次表层上卷海温(T_e)距平模块三部分。IOCAS ICM的特点之一是开发了次表层海温反算优化这一创新技术,可有效改进热带太平洋SST异常的模拟和预报。IOCAS ICM和其他海气耦合模式的最新预报结果(以2017年9月为初条件)表明,2017年年末热带太平洋会处于一个SST冷异常态,最大变冷中心集中在赤道东太平洋,但并不足以达到拉尼娜(La Ni?a)事件的水平,SST冷异常可能会在2018年春季逐渐减弱,转化为中性状态。此外,本文还对四维变分资料同化方法(4D-Var)以及条件非线性最优扰动方法(CNOP)在IOCAS ICM中的应用进行了讨论。 相似文献
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"21世纪是海洋世纪",构建台湾海峡经济区,海西港口群应充分发挥资源优势,实现自身合理配置与协调发展的基础上,有计划地寻找与台湾对口产业的互补合作机会,争取实现两岸港口及相关资源的整合。海西港口群具有良好的先天性优势,但也存在许多不容忽视的问题。ICM(海岸带综合管理)作为解决海岸带资源利用冲突的有效工具,其理念与方法,对于港口管理同样适用。文章运用ICM的理念,分析海峡西岸港口群发展存在的问题,对提高港口群的综合实力,实现港口群的可持续发展,促进两岸经济一体化提出建议和措施。 相似文献
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Li Naisheng 《海洋学报(英文版)》1994,13(2):285-296
ＮｏｔｅｓＴｈｅＯｃｅａｎＤｒｉｌｌｉｎｇＰｒｏｇｒａｍ（ＯＤＰ）ｍＮｏｗａｄａｙｓ，ｗｉｔｈｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｉｎｃｒｅａｓｉｎｇａｎｄｎａｔｕｒａｌｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｆｏｒｈｕｍａｎｂｅｉｎｇｓｄｅｃｒｅａｓｉｎｇ，ｓｃｉｅｎｔｉｓｔｓｍｕｓｔ... 相似文献
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《Ocean & Coastal Management》1999,42(9):767-789
The experience of 19 donor agencies and international organizations with evaluation of ICM initiatives is surveyed to analyze the differences in the evaluative purposes and methodologies and their relevance to a “learning-based approach” to ICM. We group evaluation into three broad categories: performance evaluation, management capacity assessment and outcomes evaluation. Performance evaluations address the quality of project implementation, and the degree to which project goals are achieved. Management capacity assessments are conducted to determine the adequacy of management structures and governance processes as these relate to generally accepted international standards and experience. Outcome assessments evaluate the impacts of a coastal management initiative upon coastal resources and the associated human society(s). The survey show that most donor evaluations emphasize performance evaluation, but usually combine elements of all three types. There is strong interest among international donors investing in coastal management in learning from and advancing coastal management practice. If donors are to maximize leaning and commit to an adaptive approach to ICM they will need to modify the manner in which project monitoring and evaluations are conducted, analyzed and distributed. A number of modifications to current approaches to evaluation are suggested in the paper. 相似文献
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Oceanology - The research program of the dynamics and ecosystem of the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea is scientifically substantiated. Measurements will be carried out by the interdepartmental... 相似文献
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Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - At a meeting in Moscow on January 18–21, 1971, delegations from the Soviet Academy of Sciences and the United States’ NASA agreed upon the... 相似文献