共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 339 毫秒
1.
Babak Mohammadi Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh Ali Najah Ahmed Jana Vojteková Yiqing Guan 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1738-1751
ABSTRACT Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R2 = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m3/s); MAE = 88.94 (m3/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R2 = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m3/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide. 相似文献
2.
I. Touhami 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):193-203
AbstractEstimating groundwater recharge is essential to ensure the sustainable use of groundwater resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Soil water balances have been frequently advocated as valuable tools to estimate groundwater recharge. This article compares the performance of three soil water balance models (Hydrobal, Visual Balan v2.0 and Thornthwaite) in the Ventós-Castellar aquifer, Spain. The models were used to simulate wet and dry years. Recharge estimates were transformed into water table fluctuations by means of a lumped groundwater model. These, in turn, were calibrated against piezometric data. Overall, the Hydrobal model shows the best fit between observed and calculated levels (r2 = 0.84), highlighting the role of soil moisture and vegetation in recharge processes.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor X. ChenCitation Touhami, I., et al., 2014. Comparative performance of soil water balance models in computing semi-arid aquifer recharge. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 193–203. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACT Karst aquifers and springs are important with respect to their potential for supplying drinking water in regions suffering from water scarcity in Iran. Accordingly, it is essential to determine the recharge potential of the catchment and the regions with higher obtainability potential. This study provides a road map for the Sheshpeer catchment in southern Iran. A recharge potential (RP) map was produced from which a recharge index (RI) was computed for several selected springs in the catchment. Furthermore, the unit discharge (q) – defined as the average annual discharge for a given catchment area and unit rainfall depth for each spring – was calculated. The plot of q versus RI for the springs showed a linear positive relationship between the two variables (R 2 = 0.9). Applying the trend equation of this plot to the whole Sheshpeer karstic catchment reveals that its long-term recharge coefficient is 0.74. 相似文献
4.
M.G. Hutchins R.J. Williams C. Prudhomme M.J. Bowes H.E. Brown A.J. Waylett 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(16):2818-2833
ABSTRACTA modelling study was undertaken to quantify effects that the climate likely to prevail in the 2050s might have on water quality in two contrasting UK rivers. In so doing, it pinpointed the extent to which time series of climate model output, for some variables derived following bias correction, are fit for purpose when used as a basis for projecting future water quality. Working at daily time step, the method involved linking regional climate model (HadRM3-PPE) projections, Future Flows Hydrology (rainfall–runoff modelling) and the QUESTOR river network water quality model. In the River Thames, the number of days when temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton exceeded undesirable values (>25°C, <6 mg L?1, >4 mg L?1 and >0.03 mg L?1, respectively) was estimated to increase by 4.1–26.7 days per year. The changes do not reflect impacts of any possible change in land use or land management. In the River Ure, smaller increases in occurrence of undesirable water quality are likely to occur in the future (by 1.0–11.5 days per year) and some scenarios suggested no change. Results from 11 scenarios of the hydroclimatic inputs revealed considerable uncertainty around the levels of change, which prompted analysis of the sensitivity of the QUESTOR model to simulations of current climate and hydrology. Hydrological model errors were deemed of less significance than those associated with the derivation and downscaling of driving climatic variables (rainfall, air temperature and solar radiation). Errors associated with incomplete understanding of river water quality interactions with the aquatic ecosystem were found likely to be more substantial than those associated with hydrology, but less than those related to climate model inputs. These errors are largely a manifestation of uncertainty concerning the extent to which phytoplankton biomass is controlled by invertebrate grazers, particularly in mid-summer; and the degree to which this varies from year to year. The quality of data from climate models for generating flows and defining driving variables at the extremes of their distributions has been highlighted as the major source of uncertainty in water quality model outputs.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Fang 相似文献
5.
AbstractThe objective of this study is to measure the balance of water demand versus water resource availability in an interfluve of West Bengal, India to support water resource planning, particularly of inter-basin transfers. Surface water availability was modelled using the US Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) approach, whilst groundwater availability was modelled based on water-level fluctuations and the rainfall infiltration method. Water use was modelled separately for the agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors using a predominantly normative approach and water use to availability ratios calculated for different administrative areas within the interfluve. Overall, the approach suggested that the interfluve receives 327 × 106 m3 year-1 of excess water after satisfying these sectoral demands, but that the eastern part of the study area is in deficit. However, a sensitivity analysis carried on the approach to several assumptions in the model suggested changed circumstances would produce surplus/deficit ranging from ?215 × 106 to 435 × 106 m3 year-1 . The approach could have potential for localised water balance modelling in other Indian catchments.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
6.
Abdelghani Boudhar Gilles Boulet Lahoucine Hanich Jean Emmanuel Sicart Abdelghani Chehbouni 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):931-943
ABSTRACTIn this study, we used an energy balance model and two simple methods based on readily available data to identify the processes driving the point-scale energy and mass balance of the snowpack. Data were provided from an experimental site located at 3200 m. All models were evaluated by comparing observed and modelled snow water equivalents. Performances are variable from one season to the next and the energy balance model gives better results (mean of root mean square error, RMSE = 25 mm and r2 = 0.90) than the two simplified approaches (mean of RMSE = 54 mm and r2 = 0.70). There are significant amounts of snow sublimation but they are highly variable from season to season, depending on wind conditions (between 7 and 20% of the total). While the main source of energy for melting is net radiation, the amount of heat brought by sensible heat flux is significant for two of the most windy snow seasons.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned 相似文献
7.
Yolanda Cantón Luis Villagarcía María José Moro Penelope Serrano-Ortíz Ana Were Francisco Javier Alcalá 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):737-753
Abstract This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity. Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753. 相似文献
8.
AbstractAdequate water resources management at the basin level needs quality downscaling of climate change scenarios for application to impact assessment and adaptation work. This study evaluates the ability of a regional climate model (RegCM3) to simulate the present-day climate and regional water balance over the Niger River Basin (NRB). RegCM3 gives a good simulation of the NRB hydroclimatic features. The mean bias error for monthly temperature is 1.5°C, 0.3 mm d-1 for rainfall, and 0.4 mm d-1 for runoff. Moderate to high correlations (0.66–0.95) were found between the modelled and the observed variables. RegCM3-based water cycling indices were not statistically different from the observation. Seasonal moistening efficiency (m) ranges between 19% and 37%; 66% of the available atmospheric moisture over NRB precipitates between June and September, of which 21% originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that the moisture sink period is July to October with very high precipitation efficiency over the basin. The model reproduces the hydroclimatology of the NRB and hence is a suitable tool for further studies relating to the assessment of climate change impacts on river basin water systems.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
9.
10.
ABSTRACTKnowledge of rainfall characteristics such as drop-size distribution is essential for the development of erosion-mitigation strategies and models. This research used an optical disdrometer to elucidate the relationships between raindrop-size distribution, median volume drop diameter (D50), kinetic energy and radar reflectivity (dBz) of simulated rainfall of different intensities. The D50 values were higher for the simulated rain than for natural rain at almost all rainfall intensities, perhaps due to variations in rainfall types and the turbulence in natural rain that breaks up large drops. The kinetic energy ranged from 26.67 to 5955.51 J m?2 h ?1, while the median volume drop diameter (D50) was in the range 1.94–7.25 mm, for intensities between 1.5 and 202.6 mm h?1. The relationship between radar reflectivity (Z) and the intensity (R) of the simulated rain was best described by a power law function (Z = aRb), with a and b coefficients in the ranges 162–706 and 0.94–2.46, respectively, throughout the range of rainfall intensities (1.5–202.6 mm h?1). 相似文献
11.
Abstract The quantification of natural recharge rate is a prerequisite for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Since groundwater is the only source of water supply in the West Bank, it is of utmost importance to estimate the rate of replenishment of the aquifers. The chloride mass-balance method was used to estimate recharge rates at different sites representing the three groundwater basins of the Mountain Aquifer in the West Bank. The recharge rate for the Eastern Basin was calculated as between 130.8 and 269.7 mm/year, with a total average replenishment volume of 290.3 × 106 m3/year. For the Northeastern Basin, the calculated recharge rate ranged between 95.2 and 269.7 mm/year, with a total average recharge volume of 138.5 × 106 m3/year. Finally, the recharge rate for the Western Basin was between 122.6 and 323.6 mm/year, with a total average recharge volume of 324.9 × 106 m3/year. The data reveal a replenishment potential within the estimated replenishment volumes of previous studies for the same area. Also, the range was between 15 and 50% of total rainfall, which is still within the range of previous studies. The geological structure and the climate conditions of the western slope were clearly play an important role in the increment of total volume. In some cases, such as the geological formations in the Northeastern Basin, the interaction between Eocene and Senonian chalk formations result in minimum recharge rates. Citation Marei, A., Khayat, S., Weise, S., Ghannam, S., Sbaih, M. & Geyer, S. (2010) Estimating groundwater recharge using the chloride mass-balance method in the West Bank, Palestine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 780–791. 相似文献
12.
Viet-Ha Nhu Khabat Khosravi James R. Cooper Mahshid Karimi Ozgur Kisi Binh Thai Pham 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2116-2127
ABSTRACT The predictive capability of a new artificial intelligence method, random subspace (RS), for the prediction of suspended sediment load in rivers was compared with commonly used methods: random forest (RF) and two support vector machine (SVM) models using a radial basis function kernel (SVM-RBF) and a normalized polynomial kernel (SVM-NPK). Using river discharge, rainfall and river stage data from the Haraz River, Iran, the results revealed: (a) the RS model provided a superior predictive accuracy (NSE = 0.83) to SVM-RBF (NSE = 0.80), SVM-NPK (NSE = 0.78) and RF (NSE = 0.68), corresponding to very good, good, satisfactory and unsatisfactory accuracies in load prediction; (b) the RBF kernel outperformed the NPK kernel; (c) the predictive capability was most sensitive to gamma and epsilon in SVM models, maximum depth of a tree and the number of features in RF models, classifier type, number of trees and subspace size in RS models; and (d) suspended sediment loads were most closely correlated with river discharge (PCC = 0.76). Overall, the results show that RS models have great potential in data poor watersheds, such as that studied here, to produce strong predictions of suspended load based on monthly records of river discharge, rainfall depth and river stage alone. 相似文献
13.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract The management of water excesses and deficits is a major task in semiarid Mediterranean regions, where the variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus intense hydrometeorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. A simple method is proposed, with the example of the Skhira basin (192 km2) in central Tunisia, to account for the event space–time variability of rainfall in a rainfall–runoff model, in order to check its influence on the shape, magnitude and timing of resulting hydrographs. The transfer function used is a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with an explicit territorial significance. Simulations made for highly variable events show the relevance of this method, seen as the first step of a downward approach, and its robustness with respect to the quality and the density of rainfall data. 相似文献
14.
Application of wavelet-artificial intelligence hybrid models for water quality prediction: a case study in Aji-Chay River,Iran 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Rahim Barzegar Jan Adamowski Asghar Asghari Moghaddam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):1797-1819
The accuracy of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), wavelet-ANN and wavelet-ANFIS in predicting monthly water salinity levels of northwest Iran’s Aji-Chay River was assessed. The models were calibrated, validated and tested using different subsets of monthly records (October 1983 to September 2011) of individual solute (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, SO4 2? and Cl?) concentrations (input parameters, meq L?1), and electrical conductivity-based salinity levels (output parameter, µS cm?1), collected by the East Azarbaijan regional water authority. Based on the statistical criteria of coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSC) and threshold statistics (TS) the ANFIS model was found to outperform the ANN model. To develop coupled wavelet-AI models, the original observed data series was decomposed into sub-time series using Daubechies, Symlet or Haar mother wavelets of different lengths (order), each implemented at three levels. To predict salinity input parameter series were used as input variables in different wavelet order/level-AI model combinations. Hybrid wavelet-ANFIS (R2 = 0.9967, NRMSE = 2.9 × 10?5 and NSC = 0.9951) and wavelet-ANN (R2 = 0.996, NRMSE = 3.77 × 10?5 and NSC = 0.9946) models implementing the db4 mother wavelet decomposition outperformed the ANFIS (R2 = 0.9954, NRMSE = 3.77 × 10?5 and NSC = 0.9914) and ANN (R2 = 0.9936, NRMSE = 3.99 × 10?5 and NSC = 0.9903) models. 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
16.
Derege Tsegaye Meshesha Atsushi Tsunekawa Mitsuru Tsubo Nigussie Haregeweyn Enyew Adgo 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2203-2215
AbstractKnowledge of rainfall characteristics is important for estimating soil erosion in arid areas. We determined basic rainfall characteristics (raindrop size distribution, intensity and kinetic energy), evaluated the erosivity of rainfall events, and established a relationship between rainfall intensity I and volume-specific kinetic energy KEvol for the Central Rift Valley area of the Ethiopian highlands. We collected raindrops on dyed filter paper and calculated KEvol and erosivity values for each rainfall event. For most rainfall intensities the median volume drop diameter (D50) was higher than expected, or reported in most studies. Rainfall intensity in the region was not high, with 8% of rain events exceeding 30 mm h-1. We calculated soil erosion from storm energy and maximum 30-min intensity for soils of different erodibility under conditions of fallow (unprotected soil), steep slope (about 9%) and no cover and management practice on the surface, and determined that 3 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 is the threshold erosivity, while erosivity of >7 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 could cause substantial erosion in all soil types in the area.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate Editor Q. Zhang 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACTSeveral satellite-based precipitation estimates are becoming available at a global scale, providing new possibilities for water resources modelling, particularly in data-sparse regions and developing countries. This work provides a first validation of five different satellite-based precipitation products (TRMM-3B42 v6 and v7, RFE 2.0, PERSIANN-CDR, CMORPH1.0 version 0.x) in the 1785 km2 Makhazine catchment (Morocco). Precipitation products are first compared against ground observations. Ten raingauges and four different interpolation methods (inverse distance, nearest neighbour, ordinary kriging and residual kriging with altitude) were used to compute a set of interpolated precipitation reference fields. Second, a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model is considered, with a simulation approach based on the random generation of model parameters drawn from existing parameter set libraries, to compare the different precipitation inputs. The results indicate that (1) all four interpolation methods, except the nearest neighbour approach, give similar and valid precipitation estimates at the catchment scale; (2) among the different satellite-based precipitation estimates verified, the TRMM-3B42 v7 product is the closest to observed precipitation, and (3) despite poor performance at the daily time step when used in the hydrological model, TRMM-3B42 v7 estimates are found adequate to reproduce monthly dynamics of discharge in the catchment. The results provide valuable perspectives for water resources modelling of data-scarce catchments with satellite-based rainfall data in this region.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor N. Verhoest 相似文献
18.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
19.
This study examined trends and change points in 100-year annual and seasonal rainfall over hot and cold arid regions of India. Using k-means clustering, 32 stations were classified into two clusters: the coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal rainfall was relatively high for Cluster-II compared to Cluster-I. Short-term and long-term persistence was more dominant in Cluster-II (entirely arid) and Cluster-I (partly arid), respectively. Trend tests revealed prominent increasing trends in annual and wet season rainfall of Cluster-II. Dry season rainfall increased by 1.09 mm year?1 in the cold arid region. The significant change points in annual and wet season rainfall mostly occurred in the period 1941–1955 (hot and cold), and in the dry season in the period 1973–1975 (hot arid) and in 1949 (cold arid). The findings are useful for managing a surplus or deficiency of rainwater in the Indian arid region.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
20.
Abstract A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Tarnavsky, E., Mulligan, M. and Husak, G., 2012. Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 248–264. 相似文献