共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
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《中国气象科学研究院年报》2000,(1)
Themainobjectivesofthe10thFive-YearPlanoftheChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences(CAMS)are:toresolvethe"High"and"New"scientificandtechnologicalproblemsthatareencounteredduringthedevelopmentoftheoperationalweathermonitoringandforecastingsystemandthecourseofthemeteorologicalservicemodernizationandneedimmediateaction,aswellassuchurgentissuesasdisasterreduction,disasterpreventionandatmosphericenvironmentprotection;andtoconductcomprehensiveandprevisionalresearchesonthefrontiersofatmospherescie… 相似文献
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《中国气象科学研究院年报》1994,(1)
ＡＮＩＮＦＥＲＥＮＣＥＯＦＴＨＥＴＥＭＰＥＲＡＴＵＲＥＩＮＴＨＥ１３ＴＨＣＥＮＴＵＲＹＯＦＣＨＩＮＡＺｈａｎｇＤｅ’ｅ（张德二）ＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＣｌｉｍａｔｉｃＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＥＸＴＥＮＤＥＤＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｔｈｅｒｍａｌｏｐｔｉｍ... 相似文献
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Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe(NAH) SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback. 相似文献
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How Well does BCC_CSM1.1 Reproduce the 20th Century Climate Change over China? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 XIN Xiao-Ge WU Tong-Wen LI Jiang-Long WANG Zai-Zhi LI Wei-Ping WU Fang-Hua 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(1):21-26
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) experiments performed by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model(BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regarding the time evolutions of the global and China mean surface air temperature(SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades.BCC_CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0.By the year 2005,the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming amplitude of approximately 1℃ in China over the 1961-1990 mean,which is consistent with observation.The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,with the warmest occurring in winter.Although the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model.For the precipitation change,BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring,with drought in Southeast China.After removing the linear trend,the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China. 相似文献
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Dynamics of the surface air temperature and amount of precipitation in the Polar, Northern, and Southern Urals in the 20th
century is analyzed. Charts of the temperature distribution in the Urals for the period from 1961 to 2000, taking into account
the relief, are plotted in the geographical informational system on the basis of data of instrumental measurements at meteorological
stations with the use of the multiple regression analysis and raster modeling. The northeastern direction of the warming gradient
and increase of falling precipitations in the period under review is established. Time series of anomalies of the average
annual air temperature and amount of precipitation in the 20th century at three meteorological stations, situated in the Polar,
Northern, and Southern Urals, are analyzed. The tendency of the growth of anomalies of the average annual temperature and
total amount of precipitation is revealed. 相似文献
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The seasonally varying moisture balance in a montane forest of Southeast Asia is reconstructed for the 20th century from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of subannual tree cellulose samples of Pinus kesiya growing at 1,500?m elevation on Doi Chiang Dao in northern Thailand. The cellulose δ18O values exhibit a distinctive annual cycle with amplitude of up to 12?‰, which we interpret to represent primarily the seasonal cycle of precipitation δ18O. The annual mean δ18O values correlate significantly with the amount of summer monsoon precipitation, and suggest a temporal weakening relationship between the South Asian monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation over the late 20th century. The cellulose δ18O annual maxima values, which reflect the dry season moisture status, have declined progressively over the 20th century by about 3.5?‰. We interpret this to indicate a change in the contribution of the isotopically distinct fog water to the dry season soil moisture in response to rising temperature as well as deforestation. 相似文献
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Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP／LASG GOALS Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century. 相似文献
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To understand the strengths and limitations of a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） to simulate the climate of the last millennium, the energy balance, climate sensitivity and absorption feedback of the model are analyzed. Simulation of last-millennium climate was carried out by driving the model with natural （solar radiation and volcanic eruptions） and anthropogenic （greenhouse gases and aerosols） forcing agents. The model feedback factors for （model sensitivity to） different forcings were calculated. The results show that the system feedback factor is about 2.5 （W m-2） K-1 in the pre-industrial period, while 1.9 （W m-2） K-1 in the industrial era. Thus, the model＇s sensitivity to natural forcing is weak, which explains why it reproduces a weak Medieval Warm Period. The relatively reasonable simulation of the Little Ice Age is caused by both the specified radiative forcing and unforced linear cold drift. The model sensitivity in the industrial era is higher than that of the pre-industrial period. A negative net cloud radiative feedback operates during whole-millennial simulation and reduces the model＇s sensitivity to specified forcing. The negative net cloud radiative forcing feedback under natural forcing in the period prior to 1850 is due to the underestimation （overestimation） of the response of cloudiness （in-cloud water path）. In the industrial era, the strong tropospheric temperature response enlarges the effective radius of ice clouds and reduces the fractional ice content within cloud, resulting in a weak negative net cloud feedback in the industrial period. The water vapor feedback in the industrial era is also stronger than that in the pre-industrial period. Both are in favor of higher model sensitivity and thus a reasonable simulation of the 20th century global warming. 相似文献
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E. V. Kharyutkina S. V. Loginov Yu. V. Martynova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(6):435-438
The estimates of spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters in West Siberia are obtained over the period of 1976-2014. It is revealed that this variability is affected by the parameters of atmospheric circulation such as wind speed components, relative vorticity, and large-scale circulation indices. It is found that in winter the warming changed into the cooling that is particularly associated with the change in atmospheric circulation patterns described by the SCAND index. 相似文献
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Artamonov Yu. V. Skripaleva E. A. Artamonov A. Yu. Shutov S. A. 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2020,45(2):87-95
The thermohaline structure of water in the Antarctic coastal areas adjoining Molodezhnaya, Novolazarevskaya, and Bellingshausen stations is analyzed using many-hour soundings carried out in March–April 2019 during the 64th Russian Antarctic Expedition on the Akademik Fedorov research vessel. Water masses typical of the Antarctic zone (Antarctic surface, Antarctic shelf, Antarctic winter, upper circumpolar deep water, Bransfield Strait surface water) are identified, and the features of their temporal variability are described. It is shown that intradaily and interdaily variations in water temperature and salinity were observed during the measurement period. The changes in the water structure in the area of Molodezhnaya, Novolazarevskaya, and Bellingshausen stations occurred under changes in synoptic atmospheric conditions, and their frequency was close to that of tidal processes.
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V. V. Popova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(3):159-167
Considered is a relationship between long-term variations of the surface air temperature and of the field of geopotential at the level of 500 hPa in the middle of summer in the European part of Russia and the variations of large-scale atmospheric circulation described by the indices of North Atlantic and North Pacific centers of atmospheric action. The considerable inhomogeneity in the course of average temperature in the European part of Russia in July divides it into two periods, before and after the 1980s. Unlike stationary fluctuations of temperature before the 1980s, the 6–10-year fluctuations are typical of the period of 1981–2010 against a background of its considerable rise by 0.8°C per 10 years with the contribution of 20% to the total variance. During this period, about 80% of temperature variability are caused by the circulation variations, and 55% of them are associated with the North Pacific centers of atmospheric action, in particular, with the WP index in July, May, and April. Revealed regression dependences between circulation indices and the air temperature in the European part of Russia explain rather accurately the linear trend, the fluctuations with the period of 6–10 years, and the extremes in 1988, 2001–2003, and 2010. The analysis of the time series (1950–2012) of WP, PDO, and SOI indices demonstrates that changes in the atmospheric circulation took place in the extratropical zone of the Northern Hemisphere at the turn of the 1980s and this caused the formation of blocking situations and, hence, steady heat and drought in summer in the mid-latitude zone including the European part of Russia. These variations can be interpreted as a change in the regimes of strong (1950–1980) and weak (1981–2012) circulation. The heat in July 2010 was an extreme display of weak circulation, and this is indicated by the unprecedented low values of the WP index in July and May. 相似文献
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