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1.
There is a need for research that advances understanding of flow alterations in contemporary watersheds where natural and anthropogenic interactions can confound mitigation efforts. Event-based flow frequency, timing, magnitude, and rate of change were quantified at five-site nested gauging sites in a representative mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Statistically independent storms were paired by site (n = 111 × 5 sites) to test for significant differences in event-based rainfall and flow response variables (n = 17) between gauging sites. Increased frequency of small peak flow events (i.e., 64 more events less than 4.0 m3 s?1) was observed at the rural–urban interface of the watershed. Differences in flow response were apparent during drier periods when small rainfall events resulted in increased flow response at urban sites in the lower reaches. Relationships between rainfall and peak flow were stronger with decreased pasture/crop land use and increased urban land use by approximately 20%. Event-based total rainfall explained 40–68% of the variance in peak flow (p < 0.001). Coefficients of determination (r2) were negatively correlated with pasture/crop land use (r2 = 0.92; p = 0.007; n = 5) and positively correlated with urban land use (r2 = 0.90; p = 0.008; n = 5). Significant differences in flow metrics were observed between rural and urban sites (p < 0.05; n = 111) that were not explained by differences in rainfall variables and drainage area. An urban influence on flow timing was observed using median time lag to peak centroid and time of maximum precipitation to peak flow. Results highlight the need to establish manageable flow targets in rapidly urbanizing mixed-land-use watersheds.  相似文献   

2.
Extreme and/or prolonged rainfall events frequently cause landslides in many parts of the world. In this study, infiltration of rainfall into an unsaturated soil slope and triggering of landslides is studied through laboratory model (flume) tests, with the goal of obtaining the triggering rainfall intensity–duration (I–D) threshold. Flume tests with fine sand at two different relative densities (34 and 48%) and at slope angle of 56.5° are prepared, and rainfall (intensity in the range of 18 to 64 mm/h) is applied via a mist sprinkler system to trigger landslides. Soil water characteristic curve and hydraulic conductivity function of the fine sand are also presented. In flume tests, suction in the soil is measured with tensiometers, the progress of wetting front with time and deformations in the soil are also measured. Some of the findings of this study are: for the fine sand used in this study (a) the failure mechanism is infinite-slope type (mostly translational), and the failure surface is generally coincident with the wetting front or is in its vicinity, (b) the deformations leading to a landslide occurred abruptly, (c) both relatively high-intensity–short-duration rainfalls and relatively low-intensity–long duration rainfalls triggered landslides, (d) the shape of the I–D threshold is demonstrated to be a bilinear relation in log intensity–log duration plot, (e) below a certain rainfall intensity landslides are not triggered, (f) the effect of relative density of the soil on the I–D threshold is demonstrated by physical laboratory tests (as the relative density of the soil increases, the triggering rainfall intensity–duration threshold moves to larger rainfall events). The results of this study could be useful for accurate numerical modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides.  相似文献   

3.
Mass movements in tropical Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) can be devastating although studies are relatively few and contributing environmental factors are not often investigated in detail. On 25 January 2012, following 3 days of heavy monsoonal rainfall (c. 550 mm) during a La Niña episode, more than 150 debris flows were triggered in the western part of the Ba river catchment of northwest Viti Levu island, Fiji. Reconnaissance field survey and geographical information system (GIS) analyses using high-resolution satellite imagery were carried out to investigate factors that may have led to the occurrence of the debris flows in the catchment. We evaluated the correlation between the density of mass movements (number of mass movements/km2) and several continuous variables using data measured within the GIS. There was a weak but significant positive correlation between mass movement density and elevation (r = 0.38, p value < 0.01), cyclonic precipitation (r = 0.37, p value < 0.01) and stream density (r = 0.31, p value < 0.01). Ninety-three percent of the mass movements occur within a plantation of Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) on slopes oriented mainly to the northeast and east on (trade) windward slopes and may be significant factors for their development. Although forests generally have a stabilizing effect on slopes, the plantation at Ba was a mature stand on its second plantation cycle and is a species that has a shallow rooting system making it more susceptible to failure.  相似文献   

4.
Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) have been a source of social and economic disruption in the mountainous Baguio area in northern Philippines. Prolonged heavy rainfall usually happens during tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon activity. A pragmatic approach to RIL mitigation is to develop rainfall-based early warning. We implemented a modified regression method to derive the empirical minimum intensity (I)–duration (D) threshold I = 6.46 D ?0.28 and a normalized ID threshold NI = 0.002 D ?0.28 for rainfall duration ranging between 24 and 264 h. Using a separate data set to evaluate the applicability of the threshold, 93% of the landslide-triggering rainfall events fell above the derived threshold. RILs also occurred when 24-h rainfall was 0.02–28% of the mean annual precipitation or after accumulating at least 500 mm of rainfall from the onset of the rainy season. The thresholds may be further refined as more landslide data become available in the future.  相似文献   

5.
This study analyzed 267 landslide landforms (LLs) in the Kumamoto area of Japan from the database of about 0.4 million LLs for the whole of Japan identified from aerial photos by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED). Each LL in the inventory is composed of a scarp and a moving mass. Since landslides are prone to reactivation, it is important to evaluate the sliding-recurrence susceptibility of LLs. One possible approach to evaluate the susceptibility of LLs is slope stability analysis. A previous study found a good correlation (R 2 = 0.99) between the safety factor (F s ) and slope angle (α) of F s  = 17.3α ?0.843. We applied the equation to the analysis of F s for 267 LLs in the area affected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M j  = 7.3). The F s was calculated for the following three cases of failure: scarps only, moving mass only, and scarps and moving mass together. Verification with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake event shows that the most appropriate method for the evaluation of LLs is to consider the failure of scarps and moving mass together. In addition, by analyzing the relationship between the factors of slope of entire landslide and slope of scarp for LLs and comparing the results with the Aso-ohashi landslide, the largest landslide caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we also found that morphometric analysis of LLs is useful for forecasting the travel distance of future landslides.  相似文献   

6.
Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.  相似文献   

7.
Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpine Slovenia   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This paper presents two types of analysis: an antecedent rainfall analysis based on daily rainfall and an intensity-duration analysis of rainfall events based on hourly data in perialpine Slovenia in the ?kofjelo?ko Cerkljansko hills. For this purpose, eight rainfall events that are known to have caused landslides in the period from 1990 to 2010 were studied. Over the observed period, approximately 400 records of landslides were collected. Rainfall data were obtained from three rain gauges. The daily rainfall from the 30 days before landslide events was investigated based on the type of landslides and their geo-environmental setting, the dates of confirmed landslide activity and different consecutive rainfall periods. The analysis revealed that the rainfall events triggering slope failure can be divided into two groups according to the different antecedent periods. The first group of landslides typically occurred after short-duration rainstorms with high intensity, when the daily rainfall exceeded the antecedent rainfall. The second group comprises the rainfall events with a longer antecedent period of at least 7 days. A comparison of the plotted peak and mean intensities indicates that the rainfall patterns that govern slope failure are similar but do not necessarily reflect the rainfall intensity at the time of shallow landslides in the Dav?a or Poljane areas, where the majority of the landslides occurred. Because of several limitations, the suggested threshold cannot be compared and evaluated with other thresholds.  相似文献   

8.
The Kualiangzi landslide was triggered by heavy rainfalls in the “red beds” area of Sichuan Basin in southwestern China. Differing from other bedrock landslides, the movement of the Kualiangzi landslide was controlled by the subvertical cracks and a subhorizontal bedding plane (dip angle < 10°). The ingress of rainwater in the cracks formed a unique groundwater environment in the slope. Field measurement for rainfall, groundwater movement, and slope displacement has been made for the Kualiangzi landslide since 2013. The field monitoring system consists of two rainfall gauges, seven piezometers, five water-level gauges, and two GPS data loggers. The equipments are embedded near a longitudinal section of the landslide, where severe deformation has been observed in the past 3 years. The groundwater responses to four heavy rainfall events were analyzed between June 16 and July 24 in 2013 coincided with the flood season in Sichuan. Results showed that both of the water level and the pore-water pressure increased after each rainfall event with delay in the response time with respect to the precipitation. The maximum time lag reached 35 h occurred in a heavy rainfall event with cumulative precipitation of 127 mm; such lag effect was significantly weakened in the subsequent heavy rainfall events. In each presented rainfall event, longer infiltration period in the bedrock in the upper slope increased the response time of groundwater, compared to that of in the gravels in the lower slope. A translational landslide conceptual model was built for the Kualiangzi landslide, and the time lag was attributed to the gradual formation of the uplift pressure on the slip surface and the softening of soils at the slip surface. Another important observation is the effect on the slope movement which was caused by the water level (H w) in the transverse tension trough developed at the rear edge of the landslide. Significant negative correlation was found for H w and the slope stability factor (F s), in particular for the last two heavy rainfall events, of which the drastic increase of water level caused significant deterioration in the slope stability. The rapid drop (Δ?=?22.5 kPa) of pore-water pressure in the deep bedrock within 1 h and the large increase (Δ?=?87.3 mm) of surficial displacement were both monitored in the same period. In the end, a four-level early warning system is established through utilizing H w and the displacement rate D r as the warning indicators. When the large deformation occurred in flood season, the habitants at the leading edge of the landslide can be evacuated in time.  相似文献   

9.
A full-scale landslide-triggering experiment was conducted on a natural sandy slope subjected to an artificial rainfall event, which resulted in mobilisation of 130 m3 of soil mass. Novel slope deformation sensors (SDSs) were applied to monitor the subsurface pre-failure movements and the precursors of the artificially triggered landslide. These fully automated sensors are more flexible than the conventional inclinometers by several orders of magnitude and therefore are able to detect fine movements (<?1 mm) of the soil mass reliably. Data from high-frequency measurements of the external bending work, indicating the transmitted energy from the surrounding soil to these sensors, pore water pressure at various depths, horizontal soil pressure and advanced surface monitoring techniques, contributed to an integrated analysis of the processes that led to triggering of the landslide. Precursors of movements were detected before the failure using the horizontal earth pressure measurements, as well as surface and subsurface movement records. The measurements showed accelerating increases of the horizontal earth pressure in the compression zone of the unstable area and external bending work applied to the slope deformation sensors. These data are compared to the pore water pressure and volumetric water content changes leading to failure.  相似文献   

10.
Chao Ma  Jiayong Deng  Rui Wang 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2475-2485
The occurrence of debris flow from channel-bed failure is occasionally noted in small and steeply sloping watersheds where channelized water flow dominates debris flow initiation. On August 12, 2016, a debris flow from channel-bed failures occurred in the Caozhuangzi Watershed of the Longtan Basin, Miyun, Beijing. Rainfall records over 10-min intervals and field investigations including channel morphology measurements were used to study the triggering conditions and erosion process. The results indicated that the occurrence of this event lagged the peak 10-min rainfall interval and that the cumulative rainfall prior to the occurrence time played an important role in its formation. A mean 10-min rainfall intensity–duration expression in the form of I10?=?5.0?×?D?0.21, where I10 denotes the mean 10-min rainfall intensity and D is the rainfall duration ranging from 10 to 60 h, was proposed. The debris flows have low proportions of grain size fractions <?0.1 mm and higher fractions of grains 0.1–2 mm in size, indicating that the flow had low viscosity and was coarse-grain dominated. Channel morphology analysis revealed that abrupt changes in topography in the study area, including a steep section, a concave stream bank area, and a partial concave stream section were eroded more extensively than other sites. The maximum sediment erosion volume and erosion depth were not proportional to the variation in stream gradient. Consideration of the degree of erosion in the channel at sites with abrupt morphology changes, the maximum sediment erosion volume, and the erosion depth and volume at the initial channel site and downstream region of forest area together showed that the prime factor controlling erosion was entrained sediment volume. This work, thus, provides a case study regarding the triggering conditions of runoff-triggered debris flows and the topographical changes by debris flow erosion.  相似文献   

11.
Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and represent an important geohazard in China. Rainfall is the primary triggering agent for landslides and often used for prediction slope failures. However, the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences is very complex. Great efforts have been made on the study of regional rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models in recent years; still, there is no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction. In this paper, the quantitative antecedent soil water status (ASWS) model is applied to investigate the influence of daily and antecedent rainfall on the triggering of landslides and debris flows. The study area is Wudu County in Gansu Province, an area which exhibits frequent landslide occurrences. The results demonstrate a significant influence of high intensity rainfall events on landslide triggering. Still, antecedent rainfall conditions are very important and once a threshold of approximately 20 mm is exceeded, landslides and debris flows can occur even without additional rainfall. The study presented could also facilitate the implementation of a regional forecasting scheme once additional validation has been carried out.  相似文献   

12.
The impact of erosion control geotextiles on the surface runoff from slopes is quite variable and depends strongly on site-specific conditions (soil characteristics, slope morphology, climate, etc.), as has been shown in several earlier studies. In addition, little is known about the proportion of runoff reduction that is caused by the geotextile and the proportion that is caused by soil characteristics. To shed more light on this issue, an experiment was carried out to test the impact of 500 g m?2 jute nets (J500) and 400 g m?2; 700 g m?2 coir nets (C400, C700) on the surface runoff from simulated rainfall of four different intensities (I 1 = 18.7; I 2 = 27.2; I 3 = 53.6; I 4 = 90.5 mm h?1). Data on runoff volume, peak discharge and time to peak discharge were collected from 40 simulated rainfall events. An impermeable “no-soil” subgrade was used to examine the impact of the geotextile on runoff without any influence of soil. All tested geotextiles significantly reduced runoff (volume, peak discharge) at all rainfall intensities, with the exception of C400 and C700 during simulated rainfall intensity I 4. J500 seemed to have the most effective runoff reduction performance at all rainfall intensities. In general, as the rainfall intensity increased, the effectiveness of the geotextiles decreased. Interesting behaviour was observed for J500 under simulated rainfall intensity I 4—the effectiveness of the geotextile increased with the duration of the rainfall.  相似文献   

13.
The introduction of a non-native freshwater fish, blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus, in tributaries of Chesapeake Bay resulted in the establishment of fisheries and in the expansion of the population into brackish habitats. Blue catfish are an invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay region, and efforts are underway to limit their impacts on native communities. Key characteristics of the population (population size, survival rates) are unknown, but such knowledge is useful in understanding the impact of blue catfish in estuarine systems. We estimated population size and survival rates of blue catfish in tidal habitats of the James River subestuary. We tagged 34,252 blue catfish during July–August 2012 and 2013; information from live recaptures (n = 1177) and dead recoveries (n = 279) were used to estimate annual survival rates and population size using Barker’s Model in a Robust Design and allowing for heterogeneity in detection probabilities. The blue catfish population in the 12-km study area was estimated to be 1.6 million fish in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI] adjusted for overdispersion: 926,307–2,914,208 fish). Annual apparent survival rate estimates were low: 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) in 2012–2013 and 0.44 (95% CI 0.31–0.58) in 2013–2014 and represent losses from the population through mortality, permanent emigration, or both. The tagged fish included individuals that were large enough to exhibit piscivory and represented size classes that are likely to colonize estuarine habitats. The large population size that we estimated was unexpected for a freshwater fish in tidal habitats and highlights the need to effectively manage such species.  相似文献   

14.
Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.  相似文献   

15.
In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

16.
Flash flood disaster is a prominent issue threatening public safety and social development throughout the world, especially in mountainous regions. Rainfall threshold is a widely accepted alternative to hydrological forecasting for flash flood warning due to the short response time and limited observations of flash flood events. However, determination of rainfall threshold is still very complicated due to multiple impact factors, particular for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall patterns. In this study, hydrological simulation approach (i.e., China Flash Flood-Hydrological Modeling System: CNFF-HMS) was adopted to capture the flash flood processes. Multiple scenarios were further designed with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall temporal patterns to determine the possible assemble of rainfall thresholds by driving the CNFF-HMS. Moreover, their effects on rainfall thresholds were investigated. Three mountainous catchments (Zhong, Balisi and Yu villages) in southern China were selected for case study. Results showed that the model performance of CNFF-HMS was very satisfactory for flash flood simulations in all these catchments, especially for multimodal flood events. Specifically, the relative errors of runoff and peak flow were within?±?20%, the error of time to peak flow was within?±?2 h and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency was greater than 0.90 for over 90% of the flash flood events. The rainfall thresholds varied between 93 and 334 mm at Zhong village, between 77 and 246 mm at Balisi village and between 111 and 420 mm at Yu village. Both antecedent soil moistures and rainfall temporal pattern significantly affected the variations of rainfall threshold. Rainfall threshold decreased by 8–38 and 0–42% as soil saturation increased from 0.20 to 0.50 and from 0.20 to 0.80, respectively. The effect of rainfall threshold was the minimum for the decreasing hyetograph (advanced pattern) and the maximum for the increasing hyetograph (delayed pattern), while it was similar for the design hyetograph and triangular hyetograph (intermediate patterns). Moreover, rainfall thresholds with short time spans were more suitable for early flood warning, especially in small rural catchments with humid climatic characteristics. This study was expected to provide insights into flash flood disaster forecasting and early warning in mountainous regions, and scientific references for the implementation of flash flood disaster prevention in China.  相似文献   

17.
The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.  相似文献   

18.
In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed three-hourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I?=?58.7D ?1.12 for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6 % accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12 h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI?=?0.0612D ?1.17 has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1 % has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9 % conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geo-environmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent.  相似文献   

19.
To test a recently developed oxybarometer for silicic magmas based on partitioning of vanadium between magnetite and silicate melt, a comprehensive oxybarometry and thermometry study on 22 natural rhyolites to dacites was conducted. Investigated samples were either vitrophyres or holocrystalline rocks in which part of the mineral and melt assemblage was preserved only as inclusions within phenocrysts. Utilized methods include vanadium magnetite–melt oxybarometry, Fe–Ti oxide thermometry and -oxybarometry, zircon saturation thermometry, and two-feldspar thermometry, with all analyses conducted by laser-ablation ICP–MS. Based on the number of analyses, the reproducibility of the results and the certainty of contemporaneity of the analyzed minerals and silicate melts the samples were grouped into three classes of reliability. In the most reliable (n = 5) and medium reliable (n = 10) samples, all fO2 values determined via vanadium magnetite–melt oxybarometry agree within 0.5 log units with the fO2 values determined via Fe–Ti oxide oxybarometry, except for two samples of the medium reliable group. In the least reliable samples (n = 7), most of which show evidence for magma mixing, calculated fO2 values agree within 0.75 log units. Comparison of three different thermometers reveals that temperatures obtained via zircon saturation thermometry agree within the limits of uncertainty with those obtained via two-feldspar thermometry in most cases, whereas temperatures obtained via Fe–Ti oxide thermometry commonly deviate by ≥50 °C due to large uncertainties associated with the Fe–Ti oxide model at T-fO2 conditions typical of most silicic magmas. Another outcome of this study is that magma mixing is a common but easily overlooked phenomenon in silicic volcanic rocks, which means that great care has to be taken in the application and interpretation of thermometers and oxybarometers.  相似文献   

20.
Landslides are the most established geological hazards in the frontal fold–thrust belt of Northwestern Himalaya comprising of Siwaliks and Murree strata. The continuous rainfall from 2 to 6 September, 2014 caused a massive landslide at village Sadal in Udhampur district of Jammu and Kashmir state. The landslide occurred in the early morning of September 6, 2014, destroying entire Sadal habitation comprising 45 houses, and killing 41 people and more than 500 domestic animals. Google earth images of pre and post-landslide events along with the field measurements show the kinematics of upper and lower parts of the slide. Horizontal and vertical components of displacement and mode of failure suggest the landslide as of complex nature. The shallow subsurface geophysical imaging through Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) survey shows the failure plane composed of friable mudstone bed underlain by massive mudstone and overlain by cross-bedded sandstone. The depth of debris material above the failure plane ranges from 6 m at Site S1a-b to 10 m at Site-S2b and 20 m at Site S3a. The velocity analysis of Site-3 shows four thick layers represented from bottom to surface by L1—sandstone (V?=?0.16 m/ns, travel time?=?356.36 ns), L2—mudstone (V?=?0.17 m/ns, travel time?=?288.48 ns), L3—massive mudstone (V?=?0.19 m/ns, travel time 220.68 ns), and L4—cross-laminated sandstone (V?=?0.20 m/ns, travel time?=?77.58 ns) overlaying the failure plane. The study shows the landslide occur along the western limb of a fold identified during the present work. We mapped an old landslide on the same limb which shows 5–6 m-thick subsurface debris material with thick rock fragments involved in the landslide process. The detailed geological and geophysical investigations suggest that both the landslides were triggered by extreme rain fall events.  相似文献   

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