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1.
The likely intensification of extreme droughts from climate change in many regions across the United States has increased interest amongst researchers and water managers to understand not only the magnitude of drought impacts and their consequences on water resources, but also what they can do to prevent, respond to, and adapt to these impacts. Building and mobilizing ‘adaptive capacity’ can help in this pursuit. Researchers anticipate that drought preparedness measures will increase adaptive capacity, but there has been minimal testing of this and other assumptions about the governance and institutional determinants of adaptive capacity. This paper draws from recent extreme droughts in Arizona and Georgia to empirically assess adaptive capacity across spatial and temporal scales. It combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies to identify a handful of heuristics for increasing adaptive capacity of water management to extreme droughts and climate change, and also highlights potential tradeoffs in building and mobilizing adaptive capacity across space and time. 相似文献
2.
Marengo Jose A. Torres Roger Rodrigues Alves Lincoln Muniz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1189-1200
This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.
相似文献3.
Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Bernhard Lehner Petra Döll Joseph Alcamo Thomas Henrichs Frank Kaspar 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):273-299
Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability,
and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and
droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that
climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will
put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time
continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future
flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated
regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood
and drought frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which significant changes in flood or drought risks
are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern
to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical
regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years by the 2070s. Though
interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance
of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. 相似文献
4.
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了"气候变化和水"技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上,客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起;气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加,而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果;预计到21世纪中期,河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加,而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少;许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升;预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少;预计较高的水温和极端变化,包括洪旱等,将影响水质并加剧水污染;对全球而言,气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益;预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用;气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行,包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统,同时影响到水的管理;目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响;气候变化挑战"过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况"的传统说法;为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择,必须综合需水和供水双方的战略;减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度,进而减低适应的需求;水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。 相似文献
5.
Although sub-Saharan Africa does not contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, significant adverse impacts of climate change are anticipated in this region. Countries in West Africa, which are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, are projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts, altered rainfall patterns and increases in temperature through the end of this century. Changes in hydrology and temperature are likely to affect crop yields, thereby placing pressure on scarce resources in a region that is characterised by limited social, political, technical and financial resources. The success with which communities cope with the impacts of climate change is influenced by existing conditions, forces and characteristics which are peculiar to each of these communities. This paper assesses the preferred adaptation strategies during floods and droughts of males and females in three different occupations (farming, fishing, and charcoal production). Findings are based upon an analysis of focus group discussions and a ranking of preferred adaptation options in three communities in the Afram Plains of Ghana. Assessments of this nature should aid in the selection and implementation of adaptation options for communities and households, which is the level at which climate change adaptation is likely to occur in West Africa. 相似文献
6.
基于在云南省西部保山地区开展的入户问卷调查和关键信息人访谈,探讨在发生旱灾,大量农民外出务工以弥补旱灾给家庭和农业生产带来的损失这一特定背景下,对比外出务工农户和非外出务工农户在收入来源、应对旱灾措施和家庭收入分配上的差异,分析外出务工对农民适应气候变化能力带来的影响。结果表明：外出务工收入给留守家庭的气候变化适应能力带来了积极的影响;另外一方面,大量青壮年劳动力的外出让经济结构仍然以农业为主的村庄出现劳动力缺乏、农业发展后续动力不足等潜在问题。建议在未来针对外出务工人口开展的职业培训中增加诸如家庭财务管理、气候变化等相关内容来加强农村地区和农民的气候变化适应能力,建议政府推广气候智能农业,采取本地化/本土化的适应措施。 相似文献
7.
历史干旱事件的观测和数值研究表明,植被可通过地—气水分、能量和其他通量交换影响和反馈干旱.本研究旨在了解气候变化情形下植被对干旱趋势的影响和机制.应用美国大陆七个动力气候降尺度区域气候变化情景,计算和分析了现在和未来的干旱指数、空间分布和季节变化.通过比较同一气候区两种植被类型区域干旱强度和频率理解植被的影响.集成分析结果表明,未来美国干旱很可能增加,其中大平原中部所有季节都很显著,而东南和西南地区夏秋更为显著.植被对干旱趋势的影响和气候区有关.在温暖和潮湿/干燥气候区,林地(草地)未来干旱强度和频率的增幅大于对应的农田(荒漠)区域,因此植被可以放大未来干旱的风险.相反,在寒冷和潮湿气候区,林地(草地)区域未来干旱强度和频率增幅较小,表明植被放大未来干旱的作用可能只在某些气候情形下出现.这种植被对未来干旱影响的复杂性和对气候区的依赖性对气候模式提供可靠的干旱模拟和预测及森林管理部门制定适应和减缓气候变化的策略提出了新的挑战. 相似文献
8.
Anthony S. Kiem 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1615-1626
This paper reviews historical and existing drought and water policy in Australia in order to gain a sense of the strengths and weaknesses in enabling effective adaptation to climate change. In particular, (a) the social, economic, and environmental costs and benefits of water trading and (b) the limitations of using ‘market-based’ instruments (MBIs), like water trading, for adapting to drought and water security related climate change impacts are investigated. It was found that water trading has potential as a climate change adaptation strategy with many benefits experienced in previous and current versions of water trading. However, there are also limitations and those negatively impacted by water trading are hit hard. These social impacts of water trading have not been thoroughly investigated and are not well understood. Significant uncertainty also exists around the impacts of water trading on the environment (e.g. changed hydrological regimes, underestimation of sustainable environmental flows etc.). Proper quantification of these impacts is needed, however, it is a complex task given Australia's large hydroclimatic variability and the current lack of understanding as to how to optimise water needs of the environment, humans, agriculture and other industries. It appears that ‘cap and trade’ quantity-based MBIs such as water trading will eventually do what they are designed to do (i.e. reallocate a resource to ‘high value’ users). However, given that the ‘low value’ users in this case are agriculture and town/urban water supply (not including drinking water) and the ‘high value’ users are mining, manufacturing, and electricity production (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions), do we really want the water trading MBI to achieve its objective? And, what would the social and environmental ramifications of such a shift in water use within Australia be? These questions, along with the limitations and potential implications of using water trading (and MBIs in general) as a climate change adaptation tool, must be carefully considered if past Australian drought and water policy failures are not to be repeated. 相似文献
9.
Crop and livestock farmers must respond to climate change, including a range of physical and cultural impacts and risks. In rural northern California, farmers face extreme drought and catastrophic wildfires with increasing frequency. I draw on an extended case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in Siskiyou County to understand how rural agriculturalists perceive risks when navigating climate change discourses. While farmers are changing their management practices in response to the physical effects of climate change, many perceive substantial social risks within their communities if they align themselves publicly with climate change beliefs or actions. Perceived social consequences included loss of access to the benefits of membership in formal and informal farming groups. Efforts focused on educating or convincing farmers of climate science may, in some contexts, increase rather than decrease the perceived social risks of climate action. The framing of climate policies, programs, and practices – especially by public agricultural advisors like Cooperative Extension Advisors and local USDA staff (e.g., Farm Service Agency) – is important not only for increasing farmer participation, but also for reducing perceived social risks associated with climate change. Interventions that focus on livelihood impacts and validate existing land stewardship-oriented values have more potential to increase the pace and scale of climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture. 相似文献
10.
干旱是一种周期性的气候异常,主要受气候自然变率驱动,具有发展缓慢、持续时间长、影响范围广等特征。然而,气候变化使得干旱不仅有增加趋势,其特征也在发生变化。例如,发展迅速的干旱,也称骤旱,近年来频繁发生。此外,人类活动通过改变陆地水循环,直接或间接地影响干旱过程。在全球变化背景下,干旱机制研究由海-陆-气相互作用影响气象干旱的气候动力学研究扩展到包含干旱传递过程机理认识、考虑区域尺度人类活动影响,面向农业、水利、生态等行业的农业干旱和水文干旱研究,为认识干旱可预报性、发展预测方法带来了新的挑战。本文将针对多尺度干旱过程及预测,讨论相关的研究进展及未来发展方向。 相似文献
11.
12.
Rancher and farmer perceptions of climate change in Nevada, USA 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Farming and ranching communities in arid lands are vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. We surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers (n?=?481) during 2009–2010 to assess climate change related knowledge, assumptions, and perceptions. The large majority of this group agreed that we are in a period of climate change; however, only 29 % of them believed that human activity is playing a significant role. Female ranchers and farmers hold more scientifically accurate knowledge about climate change than do their male counterparts, regardless of Democratic or Republican affiliation. Partisan affiliation, political ideology, and gender have strong impacts on climate change knowledge and perceptions. Republican, conservative and male rural residents view climate change as a low national priority, less important to themselves, and less harmful to their communities. Female ranchers and farmers are more concerned about the negative impacts of climate change. We found that only 4 % of our subjects (n?=?299) attribute local environment changes to climate change or global warming. The knowledge gained from this study will help researchers and natural resource managers understand how to best communicate about climate change with rural communities, and support policy makers in identifying potentially effective adaptation and mitigation policies and outreach programs. 相似文献
13.
This study explores the factors affecting rural landholders’ adaptation to climate change from the perspectives of formal institutions and communities of practice. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with formal institutions (e.g. South Australian government agencies) and communities of practice (e.g. farm systems groups) within two natural resource management regions in South Australia. Both groups noted that rural landholders autonomously adapt to a variety of risks, including those induced by climate variability; however, the types and levels of adaptation varied among individuals as a result of variety of barriers to adaptation. The lack of communication and engagement processes established between formal institutions and communities of practice was one major barrier. The paper presents and discusses a model for transferring knowledge and information on climate change among formal institutions, communities of practice, trusted individual advisors and rural landholders, and for supporting the co-management of climate change across multiple groups in rural agricultural areas in Australia and elsewhere. 相似文献
14.
自IPCC第四次评估报告以来,对城市和农村地区气候变化影响、脆弱性、适应和风险管理文献都在增加。第五次评估报告取得了进展。主要包括：气候变化风险、脆弱性与所受的影响在全球范围不同规模、不同经济水平和地理位置的城市中心均在增加。改善基本服务不足的状况以及建设有恢复力的基础设施系统,可以显著降低城市地区的脆弱性和暴露度,特别是对于风险和脆弱性最高的人群来说。气候变化对农村地区的主要影响将体现在对淡水供应、粮食安全和农业收入的影响等方面。发展中国家农村人口更容易遭受多种非气候压力,包括农业投入不足、土地与自然资源政策问题和环境退化。包括增加可再生能源的供给、鼓励生物燃料种植或发展中国家减少砍伐森林和森林退化而造成的碳排放（REDD+）项目等在内的气候政策,将对有些农村地区有重要的间接影响,既有正面的影响（增加就业机会）,也有负面的影响（景观变化和稀有资源冲突增多）。 相似文献
15.
Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems. 相似文献
16.
Increasingly severe drought has not only threatened food security but also resulted in massive socio-economic losses. In the face of increasingly serious drought conditions, the question of how to mitigate its impacts through appropriate measures has received great attention. The overall goal of this study is to examine the influence of policies and social capital on farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation measures against drought. The study is based on a large-scale household and village survey conducted in six provinces nationwide. The survey results show that 86% of rural households have taken adaptive measures to protect crop production against drought, most of which are non-engineering measures. In the case of non-engineering measures, changing agricultural production inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates are two popular options. A multivariate regression analysis reveals that government policy support against drought such as releasing early warning information and post-disaster services, technical assistance, financial and physical supports have significantly improved farmers’ ability to adapt to drought. However, since only 5% of villages benefited from such supports, the government in China still has significant room to implement these assistances. Moreover, having a higher level of social capital in a farm household significantly increases their adaptation capacity against drought. Therefore, the government should pay particular attention to the farming communities, and farmers within a community who have a low level of social capital. Finally, farmers’ ability to adapt to drought is also associated with the characteristics of their households and local communities. The results of this study also have implications for national adaptation plans for agriculture under climate change in other developing countries. 相似文献
17.
To succeed in meeting carbon emissions reduction targets to limit projected climate change impacts, it is imperative that improved synergies be developed between mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is especially important in development policy among remote indigenous communities, where demands for development have often not been accompanied by commensurate efforts to respond to future climate change impacts. Here we explore how mitigation and adaptation pathways can be combined to transform rural indigenous communities toward sustainability. Case studies from communities in Alaska and Nepal are introduced to illustrate current and potential synergies and trade-offs and how these might be harnessed to maximize beneficial outcomes. The adaptation pathways approach and a framework for transformational adaptation are proposed to unpack these issues and develop understanding of how positive transformational change can be supported. 相似文献
18.
Public perceptions of rainfall change in India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
19.
During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change in more developed countries tend to focus on mitigation aspects, while in developing countries issues of adaptation and human or social impacts (droughts and diseases) dominate. Based on these findings, this paper discusses the gap between the supply of and need for climate change knowledge, the potential causes and constraints behind the imbalanced distribution of knowledge, and its implications for adaptation and policymaking. 相似文献
20.
Martina K. Linnenluecke Alexander Stathakis Andrew Griffiths 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):123-133
Growing scientific evidence suggests that human-induced climate change will bring about large-scale environmental changes such as sea-level rise and coastal flooding, extreme weather events and agricultural disruptions. The speed and extent of these changes and the expected impacts on social and corresponding economic and industrial systems are now moving to the forefront of debates. In this paper, we argue that climate change will lead to significant disruptions to firms which might ultimately create the necessity of a geographical shift of firm and industrial activities away from regions highly affected by climate change. Such a shift might become necessary due to (1) direct disruptions through climate change impacts on firm operations, for instance through droughts, floods, or sea level rise, and due to (2) disruptions in a firm's supplier, buyer or resource base that lead to flow-on effects and adverse consequences for a firm. We propose a framework for integrating firm relocation decisions into firm adaptive responses to climate change. The framework consists of three assessment steps: the level of risk from climate change impacts at a firm's location, the feasibility of relocation, and associated costs and benefits. We apply the framework to two case examples. The first case of electricity distribution firms in Victoria/Australia illustrates how the relocation (undergrounding) of cables could decrease the vulnerability of distribution networks to bushfires and the risk of electricity-caused fires, but would require significant investments. The second case of firms in the Australian pastoral industry points to geographic diversification of pastoral land holdings as possible adaptation option, but also to constraints in form of availability of suitable properties, ties to local communities, and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Implications for adaptation research and practice are outlined. 相似文献