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1.
Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Christopher W. Landsea Roger A. Pielke Jr. Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez John A. Knaff 《Climatic change》1999,42(1):89-129
Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes extend back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century, respectively, as a result of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalized damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal variability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristic of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy. 相似文献
2.
Little is known about the influence of hurricanes on precipitation extremes (PEs) in Southern Ontario, Canada. We examine PEs and their spatial–temporal link with hurricanes events in Southern Ontario during the period of 1950–2000. On average, 5.4 PEs or 11 % of the 50 wettest days in the selected five locations occurred under the influence of hurricanes within this 51-year period. Our results indicate hurricane-influenced PEs are most frequent in September and derive from storms that had reached major hurricane status (>50 m/s) at some point during their lifetime. An absence of landfalling hurricanes in Southern Ontario during the 1960s to 1980s suggests either that the direct impact of hurricanes occurs on a multidecadal time scale or that recent years are experiencing unprecedented change. 相似文献
3.
For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict. 相似文献
4.
Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO2 (2 × CO2), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity. 相似文献
5.
6.
We use FLIGHT+ aircraft reconnaissance data for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific from 1997 to 2015 to re-examine TC fullness (TCF) characteristics at the flight level. The results show a strong positive correlation between the flight-level TCF and the intensity of TCs, with the flight-level TCF increasing much more rapidly than the near-surface TCF with increasing intensity of the TCs. The tangential wind in small-TCF hurricanes is statistically significantly stronger near the eye center than that in large-TCF hurricanes. Large-TCF hurricanes have a ring-like vorticity structure. No significant correlation is observed between the flight-level TCF and the comparative extent of the vorticity-skirt region occupied in the outer core skirt. The proportion of the rapid filamentation zone in the outer core skirt increases with increasing flight-level TCF. The differences in entropy between the radius of the maximum wind and the outer boundary of the outer core skirt also increase with increasing flight-level TCF. 相似文献
7.
Atmospheric turbulence is an important factor in the modelling of wind forces on structures and the losses they produce in
extreme wind events. However, while turbulence in non-hurricane winds has been thoroughly researched, turbulence in tropical
cyclones and hurricanes that affect the Gulf and Atlantic coasts has only recently been the object of systematic study. In
this paper, Florida Coastal Monitoring Program surface wind measurements over the sea surface and open flat terrain are used
to estimate tropical cyclone and hurricane wind spectra and cospectra as well as integral length scales. From the analyses
of wind speeds obtained from five towers in four hurricanes it can be concluded with high confidence that the turbulent energy
at lower frequencies is considerably higher in hurricane than in non-hurricane winds. Estimates of turbulence spectra, cospectra,
and integral turbulence scales presented can be used for the development in experimental facilities of hurricane wind flows
and the forces they induce on structures. 相似文献
8.
J. Wood 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,83(3-4):187-196
Summary ?In this study, TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data were used to investigate a possible relationship between the total ice contents
of Atlantic basin hurricanes to their intensities. Ice content data from the TMI was gathered for all available TRMM swaths
for the ten hurricanes. These data were then correlated to the observed maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressures
from the storms at the respective times of the TRMM swaths to examine the relationship.
Several methods of correlating the ice content data to the observed data were tried and the most successful method involved
the use of multiple linear regression to compute correlation coefficients using the observed intensity and TMI ice content
data as well as storm size. This method allowed for the inclusion of storm size, which had been found to be an important factor
in total ice content. These correlation coefficients were then used to produce regressed intensities for the hurricanes and
these regressed intensities were then correlated to the observed intensities. The result was a correlation coefficient of
0.437 for the relationship between the regressed maximum wind speeds and observed maximum wind speeds and 0.483 for the regressed
minimum central pressures and the observed minimum central pressures. Though not entirely conclusive, the results do appear
to substantiate the possibility of an ice content-intensity relationship within Atlantic basin hurricanes. With further investigation,
it may be possible to use ice content as another determinant in league with the Dvorak method and other methods of tropical
cyclone intensity in regions that are out of the range of surface or aircraft observations.
Received April 30, 2002; accepted July 18, 2002
Published online: March 20, 2003 相似文献
9.
极轨气象卫星S-NPP、MetOp-A和FY-3B上搭载的微波湿度计观测资料可以反映出台风周围水汽和云雨结构。本文使用权重函数峰值在800 hPa附近的微波湿度计通道观测资料和ERA5再分析资料全天空模拟亮温,以飓风Sandy和Isaac为例,对用方位谱台风中心位置定位方法得到的观测和模拟中心位置进行了比较。利用下午星S-NPP搭载的先进技术微波探测仪(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder,ATMS)和上午星MetOp-A搭载的微波湿度计(Microwave Humidity Sounder,MHS)观测亮温得到的飓风Sandy(Isaac)中心位置与最佳路径平均相差35.8 km(32.9 km),但用ERA5全天空模拟亮温得到的飓风Sandy(Isaac)中心位置与最佳路径平均相差73.3 km(82.1 km)。若按照热带风暴和台风等级来划分,ATMS和MHS观测和模拟亮温得到的台风中心位置与最佳路径的平均距离对热带风暴分别是36.5 km和105.9 km,对台风分别是25.8 km和56.4 km。若用FY-3B搭载的微波湿度计(以MWHS表示)替换ATMS,所得结果类似。ERA5作为全球大气再分析资料的典型代表,用方位谱台风中心位置定位方法得到的台风中心位置误差较大的原因是ERA5再分析资料全天空模拟亮温在台风中的分布结构与观测亮温相差较大,而模拟亮温与冰水路径分布结构极为相似。研究对台风数值预报中的全天空模拟亮温资料同化具有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
10.
Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference between the means of ensembles of climate simulations with and without anthropogenic gases and aerosols. This index indicates that the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades, which enables improved confidence in assessing hurricane changes as it removes many of the data issues from previous eras. We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins. The observed increase in Category 4–5 hurricanes may not continue at the same rate with future global warming. The analysis suggests that following an initial climate increase in intense hurricane proportions a saturation level will be reached beyond which any further global warming will have little effect. 相似文献
11.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):129-140
The temporal distributions of the nation’s four major storm types during 1950–2005 were assessed, including those for thunderstorms,
hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. Storms are labeled as catastrophes, defined as events causing $1 million or more
in property losses, based on time-adjusted data provided by the insurance industry. Most catastrophic storms occurred in the
eastern half of the nation. Analysis of the regional and national storm frequencies revealed there was little time-related
relationship between storm types, reflecting how storm types were reported. That is, when tornadoes occurred with thunderstorms,
the type producing the greatest losses was the one identified by the insurance industry, not both. Temporal agreement was
found in the timing of relatively high incidences of thunderstorms, hurricanes, and winter storms during 2002–2005. This resulted
in upward time trends in the national losses of hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes, The temporal increase in hurricanes
is in agreement with upward trends in population density, wealth, and insurance coverage in Gulf and East coastal areas. The
upward trends in thunderstorm catastrophes and losses result from increases in heavy rain days, floods, high winds, and hail
days, revealing that atmospheric conditions conducive to strong convective activity have been increasing since the 1960s.
Tornado catastrophes and their losses peaked in 1966–1973 and had no upward time trend. Temporal variability in tornado catastrophes
was large, whereas the variability in hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes was only moderate, and that for winter storms
was low. 相似文献
12.
随着气旋内部资料(Inner core data)在热带气旋预报中的使用,其重要性逐渐受到人们越来越多的关注。为了研究该资料中尾部机载雷达(Tail Doppler Radar,TDR)资料在业务系统中的应用效果,本文利用2012年飓风等级热带气旋Isaac期间的TDR资料,采用业务HWRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model for Hurricane)数值模式与业务GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system)三维变分同化(Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation, 3DVar)系统对TDR资料进行了同化,展开了一系列预报试验,并对其效果进行了分析和研究。结果表明与HWRF的业务预报相比,GSI系统同化TDR资料后对热带气旋的路径和强度预报有明显改进;但其同化效果同时也表明业务三维变分中的静态背景误差协方差在TDR资料的应用中仍需要进一步的改进。 相似文献
13.
Wei-Kuo Tao Jainn Jong Shi Shuyi S. Chen Stephen Lang Pay-Liam Lin Song-You Hong Christa Peters-Lidard Arthur Hou 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(1):1-16
During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1–2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1–10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed. 相似文献
14.
Rochelle P. Worsnop George H. Bryan Julie K. Lundquist Jun A. Zhang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(1):55-86
Offshore wind-energy development is planned for regions where hurricanes commonly occur, such as the USA Atlantic Coast. Even the most robust wind-turbine design (IEC Class I) may be unable to withstand a Category-2 hurricane (hub-height wind speeds >50 m s\(^{-1}\)). Characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer that affect the structural integrity of turbines, especially in major hurricanes, are poorly understood, primarily due to a lack of adequate observations that span typical turbine heights (<200 m above sea level). To provide these data, we use large-eddy simulations to produce wind profiles of an idealized Category-5 hurricane at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (0.1 s) resolution. By comparison with unique flight-level observations from a field project, we find that a relatively simple configuration of the Cloud Model I model accurately represents the properties of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in terms of mean wind speeds, wind-speed variances, and power spectra. Comparisons of power spectra and coherence curves derived from our hurricane simulations to those used in current turbine design standards suggest that adjustments to these standards may be needed to capture characteristics of turbulence seen within the simulated hurricane boundary layer. To enable improved design standards for wind turbines to withstand hurricanes, we suggest modifications to account for shifts in peak power to higher frequencies and greater spectral coherence at large separations. 相似文献
15.
J. A. Adedoyin 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,75(3-4):135-147
Summary The growth rates of amplifying mid-tropospheric perturbations in tropical North Africa is known to reduce with increased
vertical shear in the troposphere. This phenomenon leads to a reduction in the frequency of generation of squall lines – the
main rain-producing mechanism in tropical North Africa – because squalls are initiated by amplifying modes of African Easterly
Waves (AEW). Ultimately, therefore, tropical North Africa experiences a shortfall, with respect to long-term averages, in
annual rainfall. Weakening of AEW intensity is shown to be linked with the warming up to the sea-surface temperatures (SST)
of the South Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. These findings are consistent with the observed reduction in the incidence
of intense hurricanes along the entire westem Atlantic in Sahelian dry years. It is shown that the frequency of occurrence
of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is unaffected by the dryness or otherwise in the Sahel, but the paths of the storms
are determined by the zonal exit point, from the African continental land mass to the Atlantic, of West African disturbance
lines. These results have applications, and implications, in the level of preparedness for the economic impacts of Atlantic
storms and hurricanes.
Received June 8, 1996 Revised June 8, 2000 相似文献
16.
Interannual and Decadal Variability of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Southeast Coastal States of the United States 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The interannual variability of the Atlantic tropical cyclone(TC)frequency is well known.Separately,recent studies have also suggested that a much longer,multidecadal(40-60 year)trend might be emerging from the recent increase in Atlantic TC activity.However,the overall structure of the intrinsic frequencies(or temporal modes)of Atlantic TC activity is not yet known.The focus of this study is to systematically analyze the intrinsic frequencies of Atlantic TC activity using hurricane and tropical storm landfall data collected along the southeast coast(SEC)of the United States.Based on an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis of the frequency of landfall TCs along the SEC from 188701999,we have found that Atlantic TC activity has four primary,temporal modes.The interannual and multidecadal modes reported in the published literature are two such modes.After identifying all primary modes,the relative importance of each mode and its physical cause can be analyzed.For example,the most energetic mode is the interannual mode(2-7 year period).This mode is known to be associated with the 2-7 year El Nino/La Nino cycle.The average number of annual landfalling TCs along the SEC decreased by 24% during El Nino years,but did not show significant increase during weak and moderate La Nina years.However,intense La Nina years were generally associated with more than average landfalling TCs along the SEC.The effects of El Nino and La Nina also became more significant when only hurricanes were considered.The significance of the effects of El Nino and La Nina on landfalling TCs and hurricanes in different US southeast coastal states showed significant differences. 相似文献
17.
Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Atlantic hurricanes and their sensitivity to anthropogenic warming are investigated using very high (0.5°×0.5° over the Atlantic domain) resolution global simulations. The ARPEGE-Climat variable resolution grid demonstrates its usefulness in regional climate studies since resolution can be multiplied by a factor of 2.5 over the domain of interest compared to a uniform grid, for a similar computer cost. The question of hurricane characteristics dependence on anthropogenic warming is tackled trough the implementation of a tracking method. Changes in the total number, as well as locations, of hurricanes appear to depend more on sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns anomaly than Atlantic mean intensity, essentially through the change in large scale vertical wind shear. A uniform SST anomaly forcing produces increased and eastward shifted systems while a spatially contrasted anomaly leads to a decrease. Comparison between cyclogenesis density calculated from tracking or large scale combined variables (as a modified Gray parameter) brings some confidence in the use of the latter to investigate low resolution simulations. Mean hurricane dynamical characteristics are weakly changed by the warming but precipitation core and latent heat flux are enhanced in all scenarios. 相似文献
18.
Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Peter D. Howe Hilary Boudet Anthony Leiserowitz Edward W. Maibach 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):381-389
Climate change will increase the frequency and/or intensity of certain extreme weather events, and perceived experience with extreme weather may influence climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. However, the aspects of extreme events that influence whether or not people perceive that they have personally experienced them remain unclear. We investigate (1) the correspondence of reported experience of extreme weather events with documented events, and (2) how characteristics of different extreme events shape the geographic area within which people are likely to report they have experienced it—the event’s perceived “shadow of experience.” We overlay geocoded survey responses indicating personal experience with hurricanes, tornadoes, and drought—from a 2012 nationally representative survey (N?=?1,008) of U.S. residents—on maps of recorded event impacts. We find that reported experiences correspond well with recorded event impacts, particularly for hurricanes and tornadoes. Reported experiences were related to event type, proximity, magnitude and duration. The results suggest locations where disaster preparedness efforts and climate change education campaigns could be most effective after an extreme weather event. 相似文献
19.
Kelsey N. Scheitlin James B. Elsner Shawn W. Lewers Jill C. Malmstadt Thomas H. Jagger 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(3-4):287-296
Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change. 相似文献
20.
《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2005,40(3):209-236
Recent advances in observational technology have led to a more detailed knowledge of the low-level flow in hurricanes. In particular, quasi-streamwise rolls on a variety of scales have been observed. Some of these rolls have radial wavelengths of 4–10 km, which is comparable to rolls associated with instabilities inherent to Ekman-type boundary layers.The evolution and stability of the swirling boundary layer underneath a hurricane-like vortex is studied using both a nonlinear model and linearized stability analysis. The nonlinear model is an axisymmetric model of incompressible fluid flow, which is used to simulate the development of boundary layers underneath vortices with hurricane-like wind profiles. Axisymmetric rolls appear in these boundary layers, which have some similarities to the observed rolls in hurricanes. The axisymmetric flow is also used as the basic-state for a linearized stability analysis. The analysis technique allows for arbitrary variation in the radial and vertical directions for both the basic-state flow and the perturbations. Thus, the strong radial variations and curvature effects common to strong vortices are part of the analysis. The analysis finds both symmetric and asymmetric instabilities that are similar to those in the nonlinear simulations and in observations. The instabilities acquire some of their energy from the vertical shear associated with a reversal of the radial inflow at the top of the boundary layer, and some of their energy from vertical shear of the azimuthal flow. The radial flow energy conversion tends to increase for flows with less inertial stability and for modes oriented across the low-level shear; the azimuthal flow conversion increases for larger inertial stability and for modes aligned with the low-level shear. 相似文献