共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Rodrigo J. Bombardi Leila M. V. Carvalho Charles Jones Michelle S. Reboita 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1553-1568
The dominant mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic Ocean is known as “South Atlantic Dipole” (SAD) and is characterized by a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with centers over the tropical and the extratropical South Atlantic. Previous studies have shown that variations in SST related to SAD modulate large-scale patterns of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that variations in the South Atlantic SST are associated with changes in daily precipitation over eastern South America. Rain gauge precipitation, satellite derived sea surface temperature and reanalysis data are used to investigate the variability of the subtropical and tropical South Atlantic and impacts on precipitation. SAD phases are assessed by performing Singular value decomposition analysis of sea level pressure and SST anomalies. We show that during neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation events, SAD plays an important role in modulating cyclogenesis and the characteristics of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Positive SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic (SAD negative phase) are related to increased cyclogenesis near southeast Brazil as well as the migration of extratropical cyclones further north. As a consequence, these systems organize convection and increase precipitation over eastern South America. 相似文献
2.
Tatiana Jorgetti Pedro Leite da Silva Dias Edmilson Dias de Freitas 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3077-3086
This study explores the ocean–atmosphere interaction in the formation and dynamics of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), through the analysis of the heat sources estimated through the outgoing longwave radiation. The results obtained with this study show that the coupled variability between SACZ and the South Atlantic Ocean indicates that in northern positioned SACZ cases (over Southeastern Brazil), westerly anomalies are verified in the low level continental tropical circulation, consistent with the active phase of the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). In these cases, cold anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean cause an increase in the continent–ocean temperature gradient, favoring an easterly flow in this region, and blocking the SACZ at a northerly position. Easterly anomalies in the tropical continent were verified in the low level circulation in southern positioned cases (over Southern Brazil), consistent with the SAMS break phase. The SST anomaly patterns indicate cold anomalies in the tropics and warm anomalies in the subtropics, which do not favor the development of an easterly flow at low levels over the western tropical Atlantic. In these cases, two situations may occur: the strengthening of the Low Level Jet (LLJ), which prevails in the eastern subtropical South America and convergence with the South Atlantic Subtropical High at its southern position; or the atmospheric unstable conditions caused by ocean warm SST anomalies (in this case the LLJ may be weaker than its climatological intensity). 相似文献
3.
The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales. 相似文献
4.
V. Barros M. Gonzalez B. Liebmann I. Camilloni 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2000,67(3-4):123-133
Summary In subtropical Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil, precipitation is most abundant during summer but its interannual
variability is large. At this time a zone of low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and intense convection is developed
to the north of this area. This feature is known as the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and seems to be related to
the interannual variability of summer rainfall to its south. The aim of this work is to document this relationship.
Reduced (increased) precipitation in southern Brazil, most of Uruguay and northeastern Argentina is associated with a strong
(weak) SACZ and a northward (southward) displacement of it, while increased (reduced) rainfall occurs further south in subtropical
Argentina. Also, warm (cold) SST in the region 20° S–40° S and west of 30° W is likely accompanied by a southward (northward)
shift of the SACZ. Aside of this relation with the SACZ that affect on the precipitation field of Southeastern South America,
the proximate Atlantic Ocean SST seems to force the precipitation over this region by other mechanisms as well. The result
of this additional SST forcing is to enhance the signal of the SACZ in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil
and to oppose the SACZ effect in southern subtropical Argentina.
Received July 24, 1999 Revised July 5, 2000 相似文献
5.
The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and total summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979?C2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon precipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971?C2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of variability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand, these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability. 相似文献
6.
This study investigates summer rainfall variability in the South China Sea (SCS) region and the roles of remote sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. The SCS summer rainfall displays a positive and negative relationship with simultaneous SST in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the North Indian Ocean (NIO), respectively. Positive ECP SST anomalies induce an anomalous low-level cyclone over the SCS-western North Pacific as a Rossby-wave type response, leading to above-normal precipitation over northern SCS. Negative NIO SST anomalies contribute to anomalous cyclonic winds over the western North Pacific by an anomalous east–west vertical circulation north of the equator, favoring more rainfall over northern SCS. These NIO SST anomalies are closely related to preceding La Niña and El Niño events through the “atmospheric bridge”. Thus, the NIO SST anomalies serve as a medium for an indirect impact of preceding ECP SST anomalies on the SCS summer rainfall variability. The ECP SST influence is identified to be dominant after 1990 and the NIO SST impact is relatively more important during 1980s. These Indo-Pacific SST effects are further investigated by conducting numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. The consistency between the numerical experiments and the observations enhances the credibility of the Indo-Pacific SST influence on the SCS summer rainfall variability. 相似文献
7.
Summary ?This paper presents an objective analysis of the structure of daily rainfall variability over the South American/South Atlantic
region (15°–60° W and 0°–40° S) during individual austral summer months of November to March. From EOF analysis of satellite
derived daily rainfall we find that the leading mode of variability is represented by a highly coherent meridional dipole
structure, organised into 2 extensive bands, oriented northwest to southeast across the continent and Atlantic Ocean. We argue
that this dipole structure represents variability in the meridional position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ).
During early and later summer, in the positive (negative) phase of the dipole, enhanced (suppressed) rainfall over eastern
tropical Brazil links with that over the subtropical and extra-tropical Atlantic and is associated with suppressed (enhanced)
rainfall over the sub-tropical plains and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. This structure is indicative of interaction between the
tropical, subtropical and temperate zones. Composite fields from NCEP reanalysis products (associated with the major positive
and negative events) show that in early and late summer the position of the SACZ is associated with variability in: (a) the
midlatitude wave structure, (b) the position of the continental low, and (c) the zonal position of the South Atlantic Subtropical
High. Harmonic analysis of the 200 hPa geopotential anomaly structure in the midlatitudes indicates that reversals in the
rainfall dipole structure are associated primarily with variability in zonal wave 4. There is evidence of a wave train extending
throughout the midlatitudes from the western Pacific into the SACZ region. During positive (negative) events the largest anomalous
moisture advection occurs within westerlies (easterlies) primarily from Amazonia (the South Atlantic). In both phases a convergent
poleward flow results along the leading edge of the low-level trough extending from the tropics into temperate latitudes.
High summer events differ from those in early and late summer in that the rainfall dipole is primarily associated with variability
in the phase of zonal wave 3, and that tropical-temperate link is not clearly evident in positive events.
Received May 31, 2001; revised October 17, 2001; accepted June 13, 2002 相似文献
8.
利用大气环流模式模拟北大西洋海温异常强迫响应 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
北大西洋地区的海温异常能够在多大程度上对大气产生影响,一直是一个有争议的问题。作者利用伴随北大西洋涛动出现的海温异常对大气环流模式CAM2.0.1进行强迫,考察了模式在冬季（12月、1月和2月）对三核型海温异常的响应。通过与欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的再分析资料的对比,发现该模式可以通过海温强迫在一定程度上再现具有北大西洋涛动特征的温度场和环流场。在北大西洋及其沿岸地区,模式模拟出了三核型的准正压响应,与经典的北大西洋涛动型大气异常是一致的。模式结果与北大西洋地区大气内部主导模态的差别主要体现在两个方面:一是异常中心位置多偏向于大洋上空,在陆地上的异常响应强度很弱;二是高纬地区对海温异常的响应不显著,没有强迫出与实际的大气模态相对应的异常中心,表明该地区海洋的反馈作用较弱。 相似文献
9.
A total of 52 years of data (1949–2000) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are used to investigate mechanisms involved in forcing and damping of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South Atlantic Ocean. Organized patterns of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability are identified using EOF and SVD analyses. The leading mode of coupled variability consists of an SST pattern with a strong northeast–southwest gradient and an SLP monopole centered at 15°W, 45°S. The anomalous winds associated with this monopole generate the SST pattern through anomalous latent heat flux and mixed layer deepening. Other heat flux components and anomalous Ekman transport play only a secondary role. Once established, the SST pattern is attenuated through latent heat flux. The higher SST modes are also induced by anomalous winds and destroyed by latent heat flux. It thus appears that the coupled variability in the South Atlantic Ocean consists of atmospheric circulation anomalies that induce SST anomalies through anomalous latent heat fluxes and wind-induced mixed layer deepening. These SST anomalies are destroyed by latent heat flux with no detectable systematic feedback onto the atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric variability in the South Atlantic is found to be largely independent of that elsewhere, although there is a weak relation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). 相似文献
10.
Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Leila M. V. Carvalho Ana E. Silva Charles Jones Brant Liebmann Pedro L. Silva Dias Humberto R. Rocha 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):1865-1880
This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850?hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30?C90 (15?C20) days and were both band filtered (10?C100?days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic. 相似文献
11.
Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation over
South China and its Relation to Atmospheric
Circulation and SST Anomalies 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH. 相似文献
12.
An intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model has been used to investigate the influence of the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) on summer precipitation over the Guinea Coast of West Africa. Two ensemble integrations in which idealized but realistic SAOD-type sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is prescribed only in the SAO, and then globally are performed and inter-compared. Consistently, above (below) the average precipitation is simulated over the Guinea Coast during the positive (negative) phase of the SAOD. Comparison of the two set of experiments reveal that in its active years, the SAOD is a dominant mechanism that shapes the spatial character of summer precipitation at the Guinea coast, the global SST variability merely slightly moderate its effects. During the SAOD, cool SST anomaly in the extra-tropical SAO off the Brazil–Uruguay–Argentina coast gives rise to suppressed convection and mass divergence. In turn, the subsidence tends to amplify the sub-tropical arm of anomalous Hadley-type circulation and consequently large scale convection and mass flux convergence in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Guinea region bordering on the coastal fringes of West Africa. Precipitation is therefore increased at the Guinea Coast. 相似文献
13.
The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995–February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Niña event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased transient eddy activity, which causes an extension of the subtropical jet eastward from the coast of North America. 相似文献
14.
Gyrlene Aparecida Mendes da Silva Anita Drumond T��rcio Ambrizzi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):307-319
In austral summer, the observed El Ni?o (EN) events during warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases (PDO(+)) exhibited large anomalous upper level wave patterns in response to larger Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans compared with SST anomalies in EN events during cold PDO phases (PDO(?)). The precipitation anomalies in PDO(+) EN are increased over Southeastern South America (SESA) associated with the intensification of the moisture flux convergence in this region. The PDO(?) EN events exhibit positive precipitation anomalies only over southern SESA, while negative anomalies were observed in the north. Downward motion and anomalous divergence over central eastern Brazil may have contributed to the weakening of the northwesterly moisture flux convergence associated with the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) over the subtropics. The extratropical cyclones showed higher frequency and lower central pressures in southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and Southwest Atlantic Ocean during the PDO(+) EN events compared with the PDO(?) EN events. Such increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclogenesis cases seems to be in accordance with the anomalous moisture flux convergence over the SESA and associated reduction in the Sea Level Pressure observed during PDO(+) EN events. In order to investigate the impact of a canonical El Ni?o event over South America under different PDO phases, two numerical experiments were done with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Global SST and ice sea fields average over years characterized by (a) PDO(+) and (b) PDO(?) were considered as climatologically fields, and a composite of anomalies of SST of all El Ni?o events observed in 1950?C1999 was added in the region 20oS?C20oN;120oW?C175oW of both ??climatologies.?? The differences in experiments suggest that a canonical EN may produce significant different anomalous atmospheric patterns associated with distinct PDO climatologies. The more significant differences are simulated over extreme northern and eastern Brazil. Additional numerical experiments isolating the observed variability of SST over several oceanic basins during different PDO phases will be conducted to study their particular role on the South American climate. 相似文献
15.
The role of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO episodes over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) is investigated using the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). Four sets of integrations are performed using SST in El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) episodes, changing the SST of the Atlantic Ocean. A positive dipole (SST higher than normal in the tropical North Atlantic and below normal in the tropical South Atlantic) and a negative dipole (opposite conditions), are set as the boundary conditions of SST in the Atlantic Ocean. The four experiments are performed using El Niño or La Niña SST in all oceans, except in the tropical Atlantic where the two phases of the SST dipole are applied. Five initial conditions were integrated in each case in order to obtain four ensemble results. The positive SST dipole over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean resulted in dry conditions over the Nordeste. When the negative dipole and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean were applied, the results showed precipitation above normal over the north of Nordeste. When La Niña conditions over Pacific Ocean were tested together with a negative dipole, positive precipitation anomalies occurred over the whole Nordeste. Using the positive dipole over the tropical Atlantic, the precipitation over Nordeste was below average. During La Niña episodes, the Atlantic Ocean conditions have a larger effect on the precipitation of Nordeste than the Pacific Ocean. In El Niño conditions, only the north region of Nordeste is affected by the Atlantic SST. Other tropical areas of South America show a change only in the intensity of anomalies. Central and southeast regions of South America are affected by the Atlantic conditions only during La Niña conditions, whereas during El Niño these regions are influenced only by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. 相似文献
16.
The role of SST on the South American atmospheric circulation during January, February and March 2001 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Precipitation deficits were observed over southeastern, northeastern and Central Brazil during the 2001 Austral Summer. They
contributed to the worsening of the energy crisis that was occurring in the country. A low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation
observed over eastern Brazil enhanced the deviation of moisture transport that usually occurs from the Amazon Basin to southeastern
Brazil and inhibited the occurrence of South Atlantic Convergence Zone events in that period. However, an anomalous low-level
northerly moisture flux was observed over the La Plata Basin, and positive precipitation anomalies occurred over Bolivia,
Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. Using the ensemble technique, a numerical study was carried out to investigate
the role of different sea surface temperature (SST) forcings observed over this anomalous South American atmospheric circulation.
Reynolds SST monthly means were used as boundary conditions to study the influence of South Atlantic, South Indian, South
Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans. The simulations were run from September 2000 to April 2001 using the Community Climate
Model version 3.6 General Circulation Model. Ten integrations using different initial conditions were done to each experiment.
Numerical experiments suggested that the combined influence of South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans could be responsible
for the drought observed over Central Brazil. These experiments simulated the low-level anticyclonic anomaly observed over
eastern Brazil. However, both experiments have poorly reproduced the intensity of the anomalous low-level northerly moisture
flux observed over the La Plata Basin. Therefore, the intensity of the simulated precipitation anomalies over the subtropical
regions was much weaker than observed. 相似文献
17.
Remotely forced variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
An ensemble of eight hindcasts has been conducted using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model fully coupled only within the Atlantic basin, with prescribed observational sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950–1998 in the global ocean outside the Atlantic basin. The purpose of these experiments is to understand the influence of the external SST anomalies on the interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Statistical methods, including empirical orthogonal function analysis with maximized signal-to-noise ratio, have been used to extract the remotely forced Atlantic signals from the ensemble of simulations. It is found that the leading external source on the interannual time scales is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO signal in the tropical Atlantic shows a distinct progression from season to season. During the boreal winter of a maturing El Niño event, the model shows a major warm center in the southern subtropical Atlantic together with warm anomalies in the northern subtropical Atlantic. The southern subtropical SST anomalies is caused by a weakening of the southeast trade winds, which are partly associated with the influence of an atmospheric wave train generated in the western Pacific Ocean and propagating into the Atlantic basin in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal fall. In the boreal spring, the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmed up by a weakening of the northeast trade winds, which is also associated with a wave train generated in the central tropical Pacific during the winter season of an El Niño event. Apart from the atmospheric planetary waves, these SST anomalies are also related to the sea level pressure (SLP) increase in the eastern tropical Atlantic due to the global adjustment to the maturing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SLP anomalies are further enhanced in boreal spring, which induce anomalous easterlies on and to the south of the equator and lead to a dynamical oceanic response that causes cold SST anomalies in the eastern and equatorial Atlantic from boreal spring to summer. Most of these SST anomalies persist into the boreal fall season.
相似文献
| B. HuangEmail: |
18.
We examine the role of local and remote sea surface temperature (SST) on the tropical cyclone potential intensity in the North Atlantic using a suite of model simulations, while separating the impact of anthropogenic (external) forcing and the internal influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. To enable the separation by SST region of influence we use an ensemble of global atmospheric climate model simulations forced with historical, 1856–2006 full global SSTs, and compare the results to two other simulations with historical SSTs confined to the tropical Atlantic and to the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific. The effects of anthropogenic plus other external forcing and that of internal variability are separated by using a linear, “signal-to-noise” maximizing EOF analysis and by projecting the three model ensemble outputs onto the respective external forcing and internal variability time series. Consistent with previous results indicating a tampering influence of global tropical warming on the Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, our results show that non-local SST tends to reduce potential intensity associated with locally forced warming through changing the upper level atmospheric temperatures. Our results further indicate that the late twentieth Century increase in North Atlantic potential intensity, may not have been dominated by anthropogenic influence but rather by internal variability. 相似文献
19.
This study uses experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to address the role of the oceans and the effect of land–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of summertime rainfall over northern Argentina focusing on interdecadal time scales during 1901–2006. Ensembles of experiments where the AGCM is forced with historical sea surface temperature (SST) in the global, Pacific and tropical-North Atlantic domains are used. The role of land–atmosphere interaction is assessed comparing the output of simulations with active and climatological soil moisture. A maximum covariance analysis between precipitation and SST reveals the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the equatorial–tropical South Atlantic on rainfall over northern Argentina. Model simulations further show that while the dominant influence comes from the Pacific basin, the Atlantic influence can explain a large transition from dry to wet decades over northern Argentina during the beginning of the 1970s. Analysis of anomalies before and after the transition reveals an upper level anticyclonic circulation off the Patagonian coast with barotropic structure. This circulation enhances the moisture transport and convergence in northern Argentina and, together with enhanced evaporation, increased the rainfall after 1970. The SST pattern is dominated by cold conditions in the equatorial Atlantic and warm eastern Pacific and South Atlantic. We also found that land–atmosphere interaction leads to a representation of the long term rainfall evolution over northern Argentina that is closer to the observed one. Moreover, it leads to a smaller dispersion among ensemble members, thus resulting in a larger signal-to-noise ratio. 相似文献
20.
Influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat waves in subtropical South America 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat wave development over subtropical South America during austral summer is analyzed. The role of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) on this development is documented. Results show that intraseasonal variability can explain on average at least 32% of summer temperature variance. Moreover, 73% of the heat waves in subtropical South America develop in association with an active SACZ. The analysis of pentad maps shows that warm conditions in the region under study develop in association with the strengthening of an anticyclonic anomaly, which is discernible over the subtropical regions at least 15?days before temperature peak occurrence. That circulation anomaly is embedded in a large-scale Rossby wave train extending along the South Pacific Ocean that is linked to convection anomalies at the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean. In addition, the development of the anticyclonic circulation over subtropical South America appears to be strengthened by the subsidence conditions promoted by the active SACZ, which result in temperature rise in the subtropical region under relatively dry conditions. On the other hand, during the last 2?days of evolution, SACZ activity weakens and the progressive temperature rise in the region is dominated by warmer and moister air being anomalously advected from the north. Results confirm the important role that SACZ activity on intraseasonal time scales has in inducing persistent circulation anomalies at the subtropical regions that can result in the development of persistent heat waves, and very extreme daily temperature. 相似文献