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1.
Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans. 相似文献
2.
This paper examines the possible storm surge damage from a major hurricane to hit the Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA.) Using storm surge analysis on a unique data set compiled from the Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW), the paper estimates
the expected industry-level damage for each county in the Houston MSA. The advantages of using GIS to analyze the expected
storm surge damage estimation is that it provides an accurate estimation of the number of affected employees and probable
wages losses, by industry and county, based on QCEW data. The results indicate that the ‘Basic Chemical Manufacturing’ and
‘Oil and Gas Extraction’ industries incur the highest employee and payroll losses while the ‘Restaurants and Eateries’ has
the largest establishment damage if a major hurricane were to hit the Houston MSA. 相似文献
3.
Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge. 相似文献
4.
In response to the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, surge risk assessment approaches have been re-evaluated to develop more
rapid, reliable methods for predicting the risk associated with extreme hurricanes. Here, the development of dimensionless
surge response functions relating surge to hurricane meteorological parameters is presented. Such response functions present
an opportunity to maximize surge data usage and to improve statistical estimates of surge probability by providing a means
for defining continuous probability density functions. A numerical modeling investigation was carried out for the Texas, USA
coastline to develop physical scaling laws relating storm surge response with hurricane parameters including storm size, intensity,
and track. It will be shown that these scaling laws successfully estimate the surge response at any arbitrary location for
any arbitrary storm track within the study region. Such a prediction methodology has the potential to decrease numerical computation
requirements by 75% for hurricane risk assessment studies. 相似文献
5.
Hurricanes and tropical storms represent one of the major hazards in coastal communities. Storm surge generated by strong winds and low pressure from these systems have the potential to bring extensive flooding in coastal areas. In many cases, the damage caused by the storm surge may exceed the damage from the wind resulting in the total collapse of buildings. Therefore, in coastal areas, one of the sources for major structural damage could be due to scour, where the soil below the building that serves as the foundation is swept away by the movement of the water. The existing methodologies to forecast hurricane flood damage do not differentiate between the different damage mechanisms (e.g., inundation vs. scour). Currently, there are no tools available that predominantly focus on forecasting scour-related damage for buildings. Such a tool could provide significant advantages for planning and/or preparing emergency responses. Therefore, the focus of this study was to develop a methodology to predict possible scour depth due to hurricane storm surges using an automated ArcGIS tool that incorporates the expected hurricane conditions (flow depth, velocity, and flood duration), site-specific building information, and the associated soil types for the foundation. A case study from Monmouth County (NJ), where the scour damages from 2012 Hurricane Sandy were recorded after the storm, was used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed forecasting tool and to relate the scour depth to potential scour damage. The results indicate that the developed tool provides relatively consistent results with the field observations. 相似文献
6.
Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying
capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric
pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to
point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding
potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic
for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even
greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches
of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the
hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the
bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down)
water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from
southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case.
Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to
redistribute mass. 相似文献
7.
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation. 相似文献
8.
Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis in the United States. A main disadvantage of the joint probability method is the requirement to have accurate computational surge simulations for a large array of hurricane conditions. Recently, this shortcoming has been overcome by using a variety of interpolation schemes to reduce the number of surge simulations required to an optimal sample for joint probability analysis. One interpolation scheme uses response functions, or physically based dimensionless scaling laws, that consider the relative impact of hurricane landfall position, central pressure, and storm size on surge magnitude at the location of interest. Here, the influence of regional changes in bathymetry on the physically based response function form is investigated. It will be shown that the influence of continental shelf width on surge generation along a continuous coast is coupled with the influence of storm size and that this coupled physical effect can be treated within the response functions via dimensionless scaling. The surge response function model presented here has an algebraic form for rapid calculation. This model performs well for the entire 600-km Texas coast, yielding accurate surge estimates (root-mean-square errors less than 0.22?m and R 2 correlations better than 0.97) with virtually no bias (mean error magnitudes less than 0.03?m). 相似文献
9.
Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide. 相似文献
11.
A steady-state subsidence forecast model was developed as a proof of concept to estimate changes in surface elevations of the wetlands and evacuation routes across coastal Louisiana for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Subsidence estimates were derived from an empirical study published by the National Geodetic Survey. Forecasted vertical change was subtracted from current surface elevations. Land and evacuation routes estimated to have surfaces at or below 0 m in elevation, NAVD88, were quantified and classified as vulnerable to inundation hazards. The extent of the coastal zone susceptible to hurricane induced storm surge was also evaluated relative to surge models published by the National Weather Service. The results indicate spatially heterogeneous rates of subsidence that are forecasted to consume nearly 50 % of the existing coastal margin wetlands by 2100. The most significant rate increases are anticipated between 2015 and 2050. Relative to the impact on evacuation routes, subsidence occurring between the 2015 and 2025 forecast years expanded at slower rates when compared to the latter half of the century. Subsidence adjusted storm surge forecasts reveal similar patterns. The methods employed and findings produced demonstrate forecasting capabilities that provide emergency managers and transportation engineers with resources applicable to evacuation modeling, hazard mitigation, environmental sustainability research, costal restoration efforts, and more. 相似文献
12.
Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process. 相似文献
13.
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area. 相似文献
14.
Natural Hazards - Wave action during storm surge is a common cause of building damage and therefore a critical consideration when estimating structural vulnerability and mapping flood risk.... 相似文献
15.
Phenomenal storm surge levels associated with cyclones are common in East Coast of India. The coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh
are in rapid stride of myriad marine infrastructural developments. The safe elevations of coastal structures need a long-term
assessment of storm surge conditions. Hence, past 50 years (1949–1998), tropical cyclones hit the Bay are obtained from Fleet
Naval Meteorological & Oceanographic Center, USA, and analyzed to assess the storm surge experienced around Kakinada and along
south Andhra Pradesh coast. In this paper, authors implemented Rankin Hydromet Vortex model and Bretschneider’s wind stress
formulation to hindcast the surge levels. It is seen from the hindcast data that the November, 1977 cyclone has generated
highest surge of the order of 1.98 m. Extreme value analysis is carried out using Weibull distribution for long-term prediction.
The results reveal that the surge for 1 in 100-year return period is 2.0 m. Further the highest surge in 50 years generated
by the severe cyclone (1977) is numerically simulated using hydrodynamic model of Mike-21. The simulation results show that
the Krishnapatnam, Nizampatnam and south of Kakinada have experienced a surge of 1.0, 1.5 and 0.75 m, respectively. 相似文献
16.
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area. 相似文献
17.
Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning. 相似文献
19.
One of the important recent advances in the field of hurricane/storm modelling has been the development of high-fidelity numerical simulation models for reliable and accurate prediction of wave and surge responses. The computational cost associated with these models has simultaneously created an incentive for researchers to investigate surrogate modelling (i.e. metamodeling) and interpolation/regression methodologies to efficiently approximate hurricane/storm responses exploiting existing databases of high-fidelity simulations. Moving least squares (MLS) response surfaces were recently proposed as such an approximation methodology, providing the ability to efficiently describe different responses of interest (such as surge and wave heights) in a large coastal region that may involve thousands of points for which the hurricane impact needs to be estimated. This paper discusses further implementation details and focuses on optimization characteristics of this surrogate modelling approach. The approximation of different response characteristics is considered, and special attention is given to predicting the storm surge for inland locations, for which the possibility of the location remaining dry needs to be additionally addressed. The optimal selection of the basis functions for the response surface and of the parameters of the MLS character of the approximation is discussed in detail, and the impact of the number of high-fidelity simulations informing the surrogate model is also investigated. Different normalizations of the response as well as choices for the objective function for the optimization problem are considered, and their impact on the accuracy of the resultant (under these choices) surrogate model is examined. Details for implementation of the methodology for efficient coastal risk assessment are reviewed, and the influence in the analysis of the model prediction error introduced through the surrogate modelling is discussed. A case study is provided, utilizing a recently developed database of high-fidelity simulations for the Hawaiian Islands. 相似文献
20.
The purpose of this investigation was to examine storm surge and wave reduction benefits of different environmental restoration
features (marsh restoration and barrier island changes), as well as the impact of future wetland degradation on local surge
and wave conditions. Storm surge simulations of two representative hurricanes were performed using the ADCIRC storm surge
model with the inclusion of radiation stress gradients from the STWAVE nearshore wave model. Coupled model simulations were
made for a number of landscape configurations that involved both restored and degraded wetland features. The impact of barrier
island condition on hurricane surge and waves was also evaluated. Effects of landscape features were represented by changes
in elevation and frictional resistance. Restoration and degradation of marsh resulted in decreases (for restoration cases)
and increases (for degradation cases) in both surge and waves. The magnitude of change was correlated with the magnitude of
the horizontal extent and elevation changes in the marsh. In general, the wave change patterns are consistent with the water
level changes. Deflation of the Chandeleur Islands (barrier island chain) resulted in slightly increased surge. Results suggest
that coastal marsh does have surge and wave reduction potential. Results also indicate that the impact of the landscape features
is amplified in areas where there are levee “pockets.” Barrier islands and coastal ridges reduce wave heights, even if in
a degraded condition and thus can reduce wave energy in wetland areas, protecting them from erosion. 相似文献
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