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1.
The study reports estimates of above ground phytomass carbon pools in Indian forests for 1992 and 2002 using two different methodologies. The first estimate was derived from remote sensing based forest area and crown density estimates, and growing stock data for 1992 and 2002 and the estimated pool size was in the range 2,626–3,071 Tg C (41 to 48 Mg C ha???1) and 2,660–3,180 Tg C (39 to 47 Mg C ha???1) for 1992 and 2002, respectively. The second methodology followed IPCC 2006 guidelines and using an initial 1992 pool of carbon, the carbon pool for 2002 was estimated to be in the range of 2,668–3,112 Tg C (39 to 46 Mg C ha???1), accounting for biomass increment and removals for the period concerned. The estimated total biomass increment was about 458 Tg over the period 1992–2002. Removals from forests include mainly timber and fuel wood, whereby the latter includes large uncertainty as reported extraction is lower than actual consumption. For the purpose of this study, the annual extraction values of 23 million m3 for timber and 126 million m3 for fuel wood were used. Out of the total area, 10 million ha are plantation forests with an average productivity (3.2 Mg ha???1 year???1) that is higher than natural forests, a correction of 408 Tg C for the 10 year period was incorporated in total estimated phytomass carbon pool of Indian forests. This results in an estimate for the net sink of 4 Tg C year???1. Both approaches indicate Indian forests to be sequestering carbon and both the estimates are in agreement with recent studies. A major uncertainty in Indian phytomass carbon pool dynamics is associated with trees outside forests and with soil organic carbon dynamics. Using recent remote-sensing based estimates of tree cover and growing stock outside forests, the estimated phytomass carbon pool for trees outside forests for the year 2002, is 934 Tg C with a national average tree carbon density of 4 Mg C ha???1 in non-forest area, in contrast to an average density of 43 Mg C ha???1 in forests. Future studies will have to consider dynamics in both trees outside forests and soil for total terrestrial carbon dynamics.  相似文献   

2.
Many savannas in West Africa have been converted to croplands and are among the world’s regions most vulnerable to climate change due to deteriorating soil quality. We focused on the savanna-derived cropland in northern Ghana to simulate its sensitivity to projected climate change and nitrogen fertilization scenarios. Here we show that progressive warming–drying stress over the twenty-first century will enhance soil carbon emissions from all kinds of lands of which the natural ecosystems will be more vulnerable to variation in climate variables, particularly in annual precipitation. The carbon emissions from all croplands, however, could be mitigated by applying nitrogen fertilizer at 30–60 kg N ha???1 year???1. The uncertainties of soil organic carbon budgets and crop yields depend mainly on the nitrogen fertilization rate during the first 40 years and then are dominated by climate drying stress. The replenishment of soil nutrients, especially of nitrogen through fertilization, could be one of the priority options for policy makers and farm managers as they evaluate mitigation and adaptation strategies of cropping systems and management practices to sustain agriculture and ensure food security under a changing climate.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
With the implementation of the Chinese Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) in 1998, over millions of hectares of forest in northeastern China have been protected through natural restoration (closure of hills). The impact of this program on the carbon budget of soil has not been evaluated until now. This paper presents results from a 6-year study of total CO2 efflux from both soil and litter (R total), CO2 flux from soil (R soil), soil organic matter (SOM), soil microbe density, and litter input and root biomass at an uncut larch (Larix gmelinii) forest and at a natural restoration site. The natural restoration area is a clear-cut site that was formerly part of a continuous portion of the uncut larch forest. Our objectives were to: (1) quantify the magnitude of CO2 efflux from typical sites in northeastern China; (2) explore the changes in thermal conditions, SOM, and annual CO2 flux during the 6-year natural restoration, and (3) evaluate the impact of NFCP on soil carbon processes. The annual R soil at the clear-cut site (58.6–68.2 mol m???2 year???1) was 113.6–228.4% (mean 141.5%) higher than that at the uncut larch site (29.6–58.4 mol m???2 year???1). At the same time, annual CO2 from litter at the clear-cut site (2.0–14.2 mol m???2 year???1) was only 23.5–84.5% (mean 52.5%) of that at the uncut larch site (5.4–16.8 mol m???2 year???1). SOM at the surface layer of the clear-cut site was 75% of that at the uncut larch site, but the soil microbial biomass (carbon) at the clear-cut site was much higher than that at the larch site (p?<?0.05). The percentage of bacteria, fungi and actinomycetes also were largely different between both sites. Natural restoration at the clear-cut site strongly affected thermal conditions. Although the soil temperature (T soil) and effective accumulated $T_{\rm soil} > 0^{\circ}$ C at the clear-cut site was much higher, the temperature sensitivity (Q 10) was much lower than that at the uncut larch site, and their differences decreased linearly from 2001 to 2006 (p?<?0.05). Moreover, Q 10 at the clear-cut site significantly increased with the progress of natural restoration, which diminished the Q 10 difference between the two sites (slope?=???0.2792, r 2?=?0.4744, p?<?0.05). These data imply that the NFCP natural restoration process has positively recovered the thermal condition of the clear-cut site to the level of uncut larch forest during the 6-year period. However, linear regression analysis showed that the 6-year natural restoration only slightly affected the annual soil CO2 efflux and SOM at both sites, and also did not diminish the differences between the two sites (p?>?0.10), indicating that a much longer time is necessary to restore the soil carbon in the clear-cut site.  相似文献   

5.
This work studied the temporal and spatial variability of the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland under current and changing climatic conditions until the end of this century. The study was based on a snow accumulation model in which cumulative precipitation, air temperature and wind speed were used as input variables. The risk was analyzed in terms of the number of days per year when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded 20 kg m???2. Based on the risk, the forest area and mean carbon stock of seedling, young thinning and advanced thinning stands at risk were calculated. Furthermore, the number of 5-day periods, when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded a risk limit, was calculated for the current and changing climatic conditions in order to study the frequency of damaging snowfalls. Compared to the baseline period 1961–1990, the risk of snow-induced forest damage and the amount of damaging snowfalls were predicted to decrease from the first 30-year period (1991–2020) onwards. Over the whole country, the mean annual number of risk days decreased by 11%, 23% and 56% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In the most hazardous areas in north-western and north-eastern Finland, the number of risk days decreased from the baseline period of over 30 days to about 8 days per year at the end of the century. Correspondingly, the shares of the forest area at risk were 1.9%, 2.0% and 1.0% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively. The highest mean annual carbon stocks of young stands at risk were found in central, north-eastern and north-western Finland in the first and second 30-year period, varying between 0.6 and 1.2 Mg C ha???1 year???1, meaning at highest 3% of the mean carbon stock (Mg C stem wood ha???1) of those areas. This study showed that although the risk of snow-induced forest damage was mainly affected by changes in critical weather events, the development of growing stock under the changing climatic conditions also had an effect on the risk assessment. However, timely management of forest stands in the areas with a high risk of snow-induced damage contributes to the trees’ increased resistance to the damage.  相似文献   

6.
The soil C balance is determined by the difference between inputs (e.g., plant litter, organic amendments, depositional C) and outputs (e.g., soil respiration, dissolved organic C leaching, and eroded C). There is a need to improve our understanding of whether soil erosion is a sink or a source of atmospheric CO2. The objective of this paper is to discover the long-term influence of soil erosion on the C cycle of managed watersheds near Coshocton, OH. We hypothesize that the amount of eroded C that is deposited in or out of a watershed compares in magnitude to the soil C changes induced via microbial respiration. We applied the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model to evaluate the role of erosion–deposition processes on the C balance of three small watersheds (∼1 ha). Experimental records from the USDA North Appalachian Experimental Watershed facility north of Coshocton, OH were used in the study. Soils are predominantly silt loam and have developed from loess-like deposits over residual bedrock. Management practices in the three watersheds have changed over time. Currently, watershed 118 (W118) is under a corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) no till rotation, W128 is under conventional till continuous corn, and W188 is under no till continuous corn. Simulations of a comprehensive set of ecosystem processes including plant growth, runoff, and water erosion were used to quantify sediment C yields. A simulated sediment C yield of 43 ± 22 kg C ha−1 year−1 compared favorably against the observed 31 ± 12 kg C ha−1 year−1 in W118. EPIC overestimated the soil C stock in the top 30-cm soil depth in W118 by 21% of the measured value (36.8 Mg C ha−1). Simulations of soil C stocks in the other two watersheds (42.3 Mg C ha−1 in W128 and 50.4 Mg C ha−1 in W188) were off by <1 Mg C ha−1. Simulated eroded C re-deposited inside (30–212 kg C ha−1 year−1) or outside (73–179 kg C ha−1 year−1) watershed boundaries compared in magnitude to a simulated soil C sequestration rate of 225 kg C ha−1 year−1 and to literature values. An analysis of net ecosystem carbon balance revealed that the watershed currently under a plow till system (W128) was a source of C to the atmosphere while the watersheds currently under a no till system (W118 and W188) behaved as C sinks of atmospheric CO2. Our results demonstrate a clear need for documenting and modeling the proportion of eroded soil C that is transported outside watershed boundaries and the proportion that evolves as CO2 to the atmosphere.  相似文献   

7.
Haze-fog conditions over northern India are associated with visibility degradation and severe attenuation of solar radiation by airborne particles with various chemical compositions. PM2.5 samples have been collected in Delhi, India from December 2011 to November 2012 and analyzed for carbonaceous and inorganic species. PM10 measurements were made simultaneously such that PM10–2.5 could be estimated by difference. This study analyzes the temporal variation of PM2.5 and carbonaceous particles (CP), focusing on identification of the primary and secondary aerosol emissions, estimations of light extinction coefficient (bext) and the contributions by the major PM2.5 chemical components. The annual mean concentrations of PM2.5, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and PM10–2.5 were found to be 153.6 ± 59.8, 33.5 ± 15.9, 6.9 ± 3.9 and 91.1 ± 99.9 μg m?3, respectively. Total CP, secondary organic aerosols and major anions (e.g., SO4 2? and NO3 ?) maximize during the post-monsoon and winter due to fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. PM10–2.5 is more abundant during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. The OC/EC varies from 2.45 to 9.26 (mean of 5.18 ± 1.47), indicating the influence of multiple combustion sources. The bext exhibits highest values (910 ± 280 and 1221 ± 371 Mm?1) in post-monsoon and winter and lowest in monsoon (363 ± 110 and 457 ± 133 Mm?1) as estimated via the original and revised IMPROVE algorithms, respectively. Organic matter (OM =1.6 × OC) accounts for ~39 % and ~48 % of the bext, followed by (NH4)2SO4 (~21 % and ~24 %) and EC (~13 % and ~10 %), according to the original and revised algorithms, respectively. The bext estimates via the two IMPROVE versions are highly correlated (R2 = 0.95, root mean square error = 38 % and mean bias error = 28 %) and are strongly related to visibility impairment (r = ?0.72), mostly associated with anthropogenic rather than natural PM contributions. Therefore, reduction of CP and precursor gas emissions represents an urgent opportunity for air quality improvement across Delhi.  相似文献   

8.
Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth’s surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg?ha?1 for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg?ha?1 for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO2] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country’s total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India.  相似文献   

9.
PM10 samples were collected to characterize the seasonal and annual trends of carbonaceous content in PM10 at an urban site of megacity Delhi, India from January 2010 to December 2017. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were quantified by thermal-optical transmission (TOT) method of PM10 samples collected at Delhi. The average concentrations of PM10, OC, EC and TCA (total carbonaceous aerosol) were 222?±?87 (range: 48.2–583.8 μg m?3), 25.6?±?14.0 (range: 4.2–82.5 μg m?3), 8.7?±?5.8 (range: 0.8–35.6 μg m?3) and 54.7?±?30.6 μg m?3 (range: 8.4–175.2 μg m?3), respectively during entire sampling period. The average secondary organic carbon (SOC) concentration ranged from 2.5–9.1 μg m?3 in PM10, accounting from 14 to 28% of total OC mass concentration of PM10. Significant seasonal variations were recorded in concentrations of PM10, OC, EC and TCA with maxima during winter and minima during monsoon seasons. In the present study, the positive linear trend between OC and EC were recorded during winter (R2?=?0.53), summer (R2?=?0.59) and monsoon (R2?=?0.78) seasons. This behaviour suggests the contribution of similar sources and common atmospheric processes in both the fractions. OC/EC weight ratio suggested that vehicular emissions, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning could be the major sources of carbonaceous aerosols of PM10 at the megacity Delhi, India. Trajectory analysis indicates that the air mass approches to the sampling site is mainly from Indo Gangetic plain (IGP) region (Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab etc.), Thar desert, Afghanistan, Pakistan and surrounding areas.  相似文献   

10.
Using a coated-insert flow tube reactor coupled to a low-energy electron-impact mass spectrometer with molecular beam sampling, we studied uptake of NO3 by sea salt at room temperature and [NO3]?=?8?1011???4?1013 molecule cm?3. The radical uptake coefficient γ(t) is time dependent: its initial value (γ ini) decreases exponentially with the characteristic time (τ) to its steady-state value (γ ss) at given [NO3]. The parameters γ ini, γ ss and τ depend on [NO3], whereas γ ss is water vapor independent at [H2O]?=?8?1012???1.6?1015 molecule cm?3 and RH ≤ 0.5 %. HCl and NO2 are uptake products detected in the gas phase. We used these findings to estimate γ values under tropospheric conditions for urban coastal and remote marine environments: at high NO3 (~90 ppt), the time dependence becomes important, and the γ value averaged over the aerosol lifetime is 4?10?3; at low NO3 (~1 ppt), the radical uptake is time independent and proceeds faster with γ ini?=?8?10?3  相似文献   

11.
A carbon sequestration strategy has recently been proposed in which a forest is actively managed, and a fraction of the wood is selectively harvested and stored to prevent decomposition. The forest serves as a ‘carbon scrubber’ or ‘carbon remover’ that provides continuous sequestration (negative emissions). Earlier estimates of the theoretical potential of wood harvest and storage (WHS) based on coarse wood production rates were 10?±?5 GtC y?1. Starting from this physical limit, here we apply a number of practical constraints: (1) land not available due to agriculture; (2) forest set aside as protected areas, assuming 50 % in the tropics and 20 % in temperate and boreal forests; (3) forests difficult to access due to steep terrain; (4) wood use for other purposes such as timber and paper. This ‘top-down’ approach yields a WHS potential 2.8 GtC y?1. Alternatively, a ‘bottom-up’ approach, assuming more efficient wood use without increasing harvest, finds 0.1–0.5 GtC y?1 available for carbon sequestration. We suggest a range of 1–3 GtC y?1 carbon sequestration potential if major effort is made to expand managed forests and/or to increase harvest intensity. The implementation of such a scheme at our estimated lower value of 1 GtC y?1 would imply a doubling of the current world wood harvest rate. This can be achieved by harvesting wood at a moderate harvesting intensity of 1.2 tC ha?1 y?1, over a forest area of 8 Mkm2 (800 Mha). To achieve the higher value of 3 GtC y?1, forests need to be managed this way on half of the world’s forested land, or on a smaller area but with higher harvest intensity. We recommend WHS be considered part of the portfolio of climate mitigation and adaptation options that needs further research.  相似文献   

12.
Wheat is the second important cereal crop after rice in West Bengal. During last three decades, due to climate fluctuations and variability, the productivity of this crop remains almost constant, bringing the threat of food security of this State. The objectives of the present study were to assess the trend of climatic variables (rainfall, rainy days, and temperature) over six locations covering five major agro-climatic sub-zones of West Bengal and to estimate the variability of potential, simulated yield using crop simulation model (DSAATv4.5) and the yield gap with actual yield. There were no significant change of rainfall and rainy days in annual, seasonal and monthly scale at all the study sites. In general, the maximum temperature is decreasing throughout West Bengal. Except for Birbhum, the minimum temperature increased significantly in different study sites. District average yield of wheat varied from 1757 kg ha?1 at Jalpaiguri to 2421 kg ha?1at Birbhum. The actual yield trend ranged from ??4.7 kg ha?1 year?1 at Nadia to 32.8 kg ha?1 year?1 at Birbhum. Decreasing trend of potential yield was observed in Terai (Jalpaiguri), New Alluvial Zone (Nadia) and Coastal saline zone (South 24 Parganas), which is alarming for food security in West Bengal.  相似文献   

13.
The implementation of two summer crops in the same growing season is a possible alternative for land intensification in areas with a long frost-free period. The aim of this study was to analyse the strategy of land intensification through the implementation of the maize-soybean succession at two locations (Reconquista, 29°09′S 59°40′W and Las Breñas, 27°05′S 61°5′W) of the humid subtropical region of Argentina. CERES-Maize and CROPGRO-Soybean models were used to evaluate the impact of inter-annual variability of climate (36 years) of both locations on rain-fed grain yields of the following productive alternatives: (i) monoculture of maize, (ii) monoculture of soybean and (iii) the succession of a short-cycle maize followed by soybean as the second summer crop (maize-soybean system). The maize-soybean system was evaluated by the method of land equivalent ratio (LER), based on the sum of the relative grain yields of its components. The impact of the inter-annual variability of climate and of “El Niño” or “La Niña” episodes (El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO)) on LER values was analysed. Simulated yields of maize monoculture (5687 kg ha?1; CV = 49.7% and 5637 kg ha?1; CV = 57.6% at Reconquista and Las Breñas, respectively) were higher than those of the short-cycle maize, especially at Las Breñas (5448 kg ha?1; CV = 49.3% and 2322 kg ha?1; CV = 33.9% at Reconquista and Las Breñas, respectively). Simulated yields of the soybean monoculture were higher (3588 kg ha?1; CV = 26.1% and 2883 kg ha?1; CV = 20.7% at Reconquista and Las Breñas, respectively) that those of the soybean as the second crop (2634 kg ha?1; CV = 38.1% and 2456 kg ha?1; CV = 32.9% at Reconquista and Las Breñas, respectively) at both locations. Average LERs were 1.69 (CV = 11.4%) at Reconquista and 1.41 (CV = 26.1%) at Las Breñas, and the inter-annual variability of LER was mainly determined by grain yields of (i) soybean as the second crop at Reconquista and (ii) maize monoculture at Las Breñas. Soil water content after maize harvest and rainfalls during reproductive period of soybean as the second crop conditioned LER values, but they were generally greater than 1. At Reconquista, LER values were not affected by the different episodes of ENSO phenomenon. By contrast, at Las Breñas, LER values were higher during La Niña episodes (1.48; CV = 26.6%) than during El Niño episodes (1.32; CV = 23.7%) mainly by their effects on grain yields of maize monoculture. Therefore, crop simulation models demonstrate the possibility to intensify land use (40–70%) at two locations of the humid subtropical region of Argentina, by the implementation of the maize-soybean system.  相似文献   

14.
This study reports for the first-time the ambient concentrations of HULIS mass (HULIS-OM, Humic-like substances) and HULIS-C (carbon) in PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter?≤?10 μm) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP at Kanpur, wintertime). HULIS extraction followed by purification and isolation protocol with methanol: acetonitrile (1:1 v/v) on HLB (Hydrophilic-Lipophilic Balanced) cartridge has been established. Quantification of HULIS-C was achieved on a total organic carbon (TOC) analyser whereas HULIS-OM was determined gravimetrically. Consistently high recovery (> 90%) of HULIS-C based on analysis of Humic standard (sodium salt of Humic acid) suggested suitability of our established analytical protocol involving solvent extraction, purification and accurate quantification of HULIS. HULIS-OM varied from 17.3–38 μg m?3 during daytime and from 19.8–40.6 μg m?3 during night in this study. During daytime the HULIS-OM constituted 20–30% mass fraction of OMTotal and 10–15% of PM10 mass. However, a relatively low contribution of HULIS-OM has been observed during the night. This observation has been attributed to higher concentrations of OM and PM10 in night owing to nighttime chemical reactivity and condensation of organics in conjunction with shallower planetary boundary layer height. Strong correlation of HULIS-C with K+BB (R2?>?0.80) and significant day-night variability of HULIS-C/WSOC ratio in conjunction with air-mass back trajectories (showing transport of pollutants from upwind IGP) suggest biomass burning emission and secondary transformations as important sources of HULIS over IGP. High-loading of atmospheric PM10 (as high as 440 μg m?3) with significant contribution of water-soluble organic aerosols (WSOC/OC: ~ 0.40–0.80) during wintertime highlights their plausible potential role in fog and haze formation and their impact on regional-scale atmospheric radiative forcing over the IGP.  相似文献   

15.
In this study, variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes resulting from gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and respiration (R e) of soybean (Glycine max L.) were investigated by the Eddy Covariance method during the growing period from June to November 2005 on an irrigated sand field at the Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University in Tottori, Japan. Although climatic conditions were humid and temperate, the soybeans required frequent irrigation because of the low water holding capacity of the sandy soil at the field site. Finally, it has been found that the accumulated NEE, GPP, and R e fluxes of soybean over 126 days amount to ?93, 319, and 226 gC m?2, respectively. Furthermore, the average ratio of GPP to R e was 1.4 and the average ratio of NEE to GPP was about ?0.29 for the growth period of soybean. Daily maximum NEE of ?3.8 gC m?2 occurred when LAI was 1.1.  相似文献   

16.
Sensitivity of carbon uptake and water use estimates to changes in physiology was determined with a coupled photosynthesis and stomatal conductance (g s) model, linked to canopy microclimate with a spatially explicit scheme (MAESTRA). The sensitivity analyses were conducted over the range of intraspecific physiology parameter variation observed for Acer rubrum L. and temperate hardwood C3 (C3) vegetation across the following climate conditions: carbon dioxide concentration 200–700 ppm, photosynthetically active radiation 50–2,000 μmol m?2 s?1, air temperature 5–40 °C, relative humidity 5–95 %, and wind speed at the top of the canopy 1–10 m s?1. Five key physiological inputs [quantum yield of electron transport (α), minimum stomatal conductance (g 0), stomatal sensitivity to the marginal water cost of carbon gain (g 1), maximum rate of electron transport (J max), and maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (V cmax)] changed carbon and water flux estimates ≥15 % in response to climate gradients; variation in α, J max, and V cmax input resulted in up to ~50 and 82 % intraspecific and C3 photosynthesis estimate output differences respectively. Transpiration estimates were affected up to ~46 and 147 % by differences in intraspecific and C3 g 1 and g 0 values—two parameters previously overlooked in modeling land–atmosphere carbon and water exchange. We show that a variable environment, within a canopy or along a climate gradient, changes the spatial parameter effects of g 0, g 1, α, J max, and V cmax in photosynthesis-g s models. Since variation in physiology parameter input effects are dependent on climate, this approach can be used to assess the geographical importance of key physiology model inputs when estimating large scale carbon and water exchange.  相似文献   

17.
This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO2e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO2e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO2e)???1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.  相似文献   

18.
A simulation study was carried out to assess the potential sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance components to likely climate change scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. Specific processes considered include crop development, growth rate, grain yield, water use efficiency, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Individual impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and the combined impacts of these three variables were analysed for 2050 ([CO2] = 570 ppm, T +2.3°C, P ?7%) and 2070 ([CO2] = 720 ppm, T +3.8°C, P ?10%) conditions. Two different rainfall change scenarios (changes in rainfall intensity or rainfall frequency) were used to modify historical rainfall data. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the growth and water balance processes for a 117 year period of baseline, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions. The results showed that wheat yield reduction caused by 1°C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall could be compensated by a 266 ppm increase in [CO2] assuming no interactions between the individual effects. Temperature increase had little impact on long-term average water balance, while [CO2] increase reduced evapotranspiration and increased deep drainage. Length of the growing season of wheat decreased 22 days in 2050 and 35 days in 2070 conditions as a consequence of 2.3°C and 3.8°C increase in temperature respectively. Yield in 2050 was approximately 1% higher than the simulated baseline yield of 4,462 kg ha???1, but it was 6% lower in 2070. An early maturing cultivar (Hartog) was more sensitive in terms of yield response to temperature increase, while a mid-maturing cultivar (Janz) was more sensitive to rainfall reduction. Janz could benefit more from increase in CO2 concentration. Rainfall reduction across all rainfall events would have a greater negative impact on wheat yield and WUE than if only smaller rainfall events reduced in magnitude, even given the same total decrease in annual rainfall. The greater the reduction in rainfall, the larger was the difference. The increase in temperature increased the difference of impact between the two rainfall change scenarios while increase in [CO2] reduced the difference.  相似文献   

19.
Russell Seitz 《Climatic change》2011,105(3-4):365-381
Because air?Cwater and water?Cair interfaces are equally refractive, cloud droplets and microbubbles dispersed in bodies of water reflect sunlight in much the same way. The lifetime of sunlight-reflecting microbubbles, and hence the scale on which they may be applied, depends on Stokes Law and the influence of ambient or added surfactants. Small bubbles backscatter light more efficiently than large ones, opening the possibility of using highly dilute micron-radius hydrosols to substantially brighten surface waters. Such microbubbles can noticeably increase water surface reflectivity, even at volume fractions of parts per million and such loadings can be created at an energy cost as low as J m???2 to initiate and mW m???2 to sustain. Increasing water albedo in this way can reduce solar energy absorption by as much as 100 W m???2, potentially reducing equilibrium temperatures of standing water bodies by several Kelvins. While aerosols injected into the stratosphere tend to alter climate globally, hydrosols can be used to modulate surface albedo, locally and reversibly, without risk of degrading the ozone layer or altering the color of the sky. The low energy cost of microbubbles suggests a new approach to solar radiation management in water conservation and geoengineering: Don??t dim the Sun; Brighten the water.  相似文献   

20.
The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year?1 (7 kg C ha?1 year?1) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.  相似文献   

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