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1.
Gully erosion is an important environmental issue with severe impacts. This study aimed to characterize gully erosion susceptibility and assess the capability of information value (InfVal) and frequency ratio (FR) models for its spatial prediction in Ourika watershed of the High Atlas region of Morocco. These two bivariate statistical methods have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping by comparing each data layer of causative factor to the existing gully distribution. Weights to the gully causative factors are assigned based on gully density. Gullies have been mapped through field surveys and Google earth high-resolution images. Lithofacies, land use, slope gradient, length-slope, aspect, stream power index, topographical wetness index and plan curvature were considered predisposing factors to gullying. The digitized gullies were randomly split into two parts. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the mapped gullies were randomly selected as training set to build gully susceptibility models, while the remaining 35% cases were used as validation set for the models’ validation. The results showed that barren and sparse vegetation lands and slope gradient above 50% were very susceptible to gully erosion. The ROC curve was used for testing the accuracy of the mentioned models. The analysis confirms that the FR model (AUC 80.61%) shows a better accuracy than InfVal model (AUC 52.07%). The performance of the gully erosion susceptibility map constructed by FR model is greater than that of the map produced by InfVal model. The findings proved that GIS-based bivariate statistical methods such as frequency ratio model could be successfully applied in gully susceptibility mapping in Morocco mountainous regions and in other similar environments. The produced susceptibility map represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes.  相似文献   

2.
This work summarizes the results of a geomorphological and bivariate statistical approach to gully erosion susceptibility mapping in the Turbolo stream catchment (northern Calabria, Italy). An inventory map of gully erosion landforms of the area has been obtained by detailed field survey and air photograph interpretation. Lithology, land use, slope, aspect, plan curvature, stream power index, topographical wetness index and length-slope factor were assumed as gully erosion predisposing factors. In order to estimate and validate gully erosion susceptibility, the mapped gully areas were divided in two groups using a random partitions strategy. One group (training set) was used to prepare the susceptibility map, using a bivariate statistical analysis (Information Value method) in GIS environment, while the second group (validation set) to validate the susceptibility map, using the success and prediction rate curves. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on gully areas locations; therefore, over 88% of the gullies of the validation set are correctly classified falling in high and very high susceptibility areas. The susceptibility map, produced using a methodology that is easy to apply and to update, represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes. Therefore, this methodology can be used to assess gully erosion susceptibility in other areas of Calabria, as well as in other regions, especially in the Mediterranean area, that have similar morphoclimatic features and sensitivity to concentrated erosion.  相似文献   

3.
The aim of this study is to analyze the susceptibility conditions to gully erosion phenomena in the Magazzolo River basin and to test a method that allows for driving the factors selection. The study area is one of the largest (225 km2) watershed of southern Sicily and it is mostly characterized by gentle slopes carved into clayey and evaporitic sediments, except for the northern sector where carbonatic rocks give rise to steep slopes. In order to obtain a quantitative evaluation of gully erosion susceptibility, statistical relationships between the spatial distributions of gullies affecting the area and a set of twelve environmental variables were analyzed. Stereoscopic analysis of aerial photographs dated 2000, and field surveys carried out in 2006, allowed us to map about a thousand landforms produced by linear water erosion processes, classifiable as ephemeral and permanent gullies. The linear density of the gullies, computed on each of the factors classes, was assumed as the function expressing the susceptibility level of the latter. A 40-m digital elevation model (DEM) prepared from 1:10,000-scale topographic maps was used to compute the values of nine topographic attributes (primary: slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature; secondary: stream power index; topographic wetness index; LS-USLE factor); from available thematic maps and field checks three other physical attributes (lithology, soil texture, land use) were derived. For each of these variables, a 40-m grid layer was generated, reclassifying the topographic variables according to their standard deviation values. In order to evaluate the controlling role of the selected predictive variables, one-variable susceptibility models, based on the spatial relationships between each single factor and gullies, were produced and submitted to a validation procedure. The latter was carried out by evaluating the predictive performance of models trained on one half of the landform archive and tested on the other. Large differences of accuracy were verified by computing geometric indexes of the validation curves (prediction and success rate curves; ROC curves) drawn for each one-variable model; in particular, soil texture, general curvature and aspect demonstrated a weak or a null influence on the spatial distribution of gullies within the studied area, while, on the contrary, tangential curvature, stream power index and plan curvature showed high predictive skills. Hence, predictive models were produced on a multi-variable basis, by variously combining the one-variable models. The validation of the multi-variables models, which generally indicated quite satisfactory results, were used as a sensitivity analysis tool to evaluate differences in the prediction results produced by changing the set of combined physical attributes. The sensitivity analysis pointed out that by increasing the number of combined environmental variables, an improvement of the susceptibility assessment is produced; this is true with the exception of adding to the multi-variables models a variable, as slope aspect, not correlated to the target variable. The addition of this attribute produces effects on the validation curves that are not distinguishable from noise and, as a consequence, the slope aspect was excluded from the final multi-variables model used to draw the gully erosion susceptibility map of the Magazzolo River basin. In conclusion, the research showed that the validation of one-variable models can be used as a tool for selecting factors to be combined to prepare the best performing multi-variables gully erosion susceptibility model.  相似文献   

4.
The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WoE), and statistical index (SI) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. The landslide inventory map was then randomly divided in a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, 13 landslide conditioning factors including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, lithology, distance from streams, faults, roads, and land use type were prepared, and the relationships between these factors and the landslide inventory map were extracted by using the mentioned models. Subsequently, the multi-class weighted factors were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were verified and compared using several methods including receiver operating characteristic curve with the areas under the curve (AUC), landslide density, and spatially agreed area analyses. The success rate curve showed that the AUC for FR, WoE, and SI models was 81.51, 79.43, and 81.27, respectively. The prediction rate curve demonstrated that the AUC achieved by the three models was 80.44, 77.94, and 79.55, respectively. Although the sensitivity analysis using the FR model revealed that the modeling process was sensitive to input factors, the accuracy results suggest that the three models used in this study can be effective approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping in Mazandaran Province, and the resultant susceptibility maps are trustworthy for hazard mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

5.
Toroud Watershed in Semnan Province, Iran is a prone area to gully erosion that causes to soil loss and land degradation. To consider the gully erosion, a comprehensive map of gully erosion susceptibility is required as useful tool for decreasing losses of soil. The purpose of this research is to generate a reliable gully erosion susceptibility map (GESM) using GIS-based models including frequency ratio (FR), weights-of-evidence (WofE), index of entropy (IOE), and their comparison to an expert knowledge-based technique, namely, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). At first, 80 gully locations were identified by extensive field surveys and Google Earth images. Then, 56 (70%) gully locations were randomly selected for modeling process, and the remaining 26 (30%) gully locations were used for validation of four models. For considering geo-environmental factors, VIF and tolerance indices are used and among 18 factors, 13 factors including elevation, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, distance from river, drainage density, distance from road, lithology, land use/land cover, topography wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and slope–length (LS) were selected for modeling aims. After preparing GESMs through the mentioned models, final maps divided into five classes including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the seed cell area index (SCAI) as two validation techniques applied for assessment of the built models. The results showed that the AUC (area under the curve) in training data are 0.973 (97.3%), 0.912 (91.2%), 0.939 (93.9%), and 0.926 (92.6%) for AHP, FR, IOE, and WofE models, respectively. In contrast, the prediction rates (validating data) were 0.954 (95.4%), 0.917 (91.7), 0.925 (92.5%), and 0.921 (92.1%) for above models, respectively. Results of AUC indicated that four model have excellent accuracy in prediction of prone areas to gully erosion. In addition, the SCAI values showed that the produced maps are generally reasonable, because the high and very high susceptibility classes had very low SCAI values. The results of this research can be used in soil conservation plans in the study area.  相似文献   

6.
The geomorphic studies are extremely dependent on the quality and spatial resolution of digital elevation model(DEM)data.The unique terrain characteristics of a particular landscape are derived from DEM,which are responsible for initiation and development of ephemeral gullies.As the topographic features of an area significantly influences on the erosive power of the water flow,it is an important task the extraction of terrain features from DEM to properly research gully erosion.Alongside,topography is highly correlated with other geo-environmental factors i.e.geology,climate,soil types,vegetation density and floristic composition,runoff generation,which ultimately influences on gully occurrences.Therefore,terrain morphometric attributes derived from DEM data are used in spatial prediction of gully erosion susceptibility(GES)mapping.In this study,remote sensing-Geographic information system(GIS)tech-niques coupled with machine learning(ML)methods has been used for GES mapping in the parts of Semnan province,Iran.Current research focuses on the comparison of predicted GES result by using three types of DEM i.e.Advanced Land Observation satellite(ALOS),ALOS World 3D-30 m(AW3D30)and Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer(ASTER)in different resolutions.For further progress of our research work,here we have used thirteen suitable geo-environmental gully erosion conditioning factors(GECFs)based on the multi-collinearity analysis.ML methods of conditional inference forests(Cforest),Cubist model and Elastic net model have been chosen for modelling GES accordingly.Variable's importance of GECFs was measured through sensitivity analysis and result show that elevation is the most important factor for occurrences of gullies in the three aforementioned ML methods(Cforest=21.4,Cubist=19.65 and Elastic net=17.08),followed by lithology and slope.Validation of the model's result was performed through area under curve(AUC)and other statistical indices.The validation result of AUC has shown that Cforest is the most appropriate model for predicting the GES assessment in three different DEMs(AUC value of Cforest in ALOS DEM is 0.994,AW3D30 DEM is 0.989 and ASTER DEM is 0.982)used in this study,followed by elastic net and cubist model.The output result of GES maps will be used by decision-makers for sustainable development of degraded land in this study area.  相似文献   

7.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(5):1609-1620
Gully erosion is a disruptive phenomenon which extensively affects the Iranian territory,especially in the Northern provinces.A number of studies have been recently undertaken to study this process and to predict it over space and ultimately,in a broader national effort,to limit its negative effects on local communities.We focused on the Bastam watershed where 9.3% of its surface is currently affected by gullying.Machine learning algorithms are currently under the magnifying glass across the geomorphological community for their high predictive ability.However,unlike the bivariate statistical models,their structure does not provide intuitive and quantifiable measures of environmental preconditioning factors.To cope with such weakness,we interpret preconditioning causes on the basis of a bivariate approach namely,Index of Entropy.And,we performed the susceptibility mapping procedure by testing three extensions of a decision tree model namely,Alternating Decision Tree(ADTree),Naive-Bayes tree(NBTree),and Logistic Model Tree(LMT).We dichotomized the gully information over space into gully presence/absence conditions,which we further explored in their calibration and validation stages.Being the presence/absence information and associated factors identical,the resulting differences are only due to the algorithmic structures of the three models we chose.Such differences are not significant in terms of performances;in fact,the three models produce outstanding predictive AUC measures(ADTree=0.922;NBTree=0.939;LMT=0.944).However,the associated mapping results depict very different patterns where only the LMT is associated with reasonable susceptibility patterns.This is a strong indication of what model combines best performance and mapping for any natural hazard-oriented application.  相似文献   

8.
Landslide susceptibility mapping is an indispensable prerequisite for landslide prevention and reduction. At present, research into landslide susceptibility mapping has begun to combine machine learning with remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The random forest model is a new integrated classification method, but its application to landslide susceptibility mapping remains limited. Landslides represent a serious threat to the lives and property of people living in the Zigui–Badong area in the Three Gorges region of China, as well as to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, the geological structure of this region is complex, involving steep mountains and deep valleys. The purpose of the current study is to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Zigui–Badong area using a random forest model, multisource data, GIS, and remote sensing data. In total, 300 pre-existing landslide locations were obtained from a landslide inventory map. These landslides were identified using visual interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images, topographic and geologic data, and extensive field surveys. The occurrence of landslides is closely related to a series of environmental parameters. Topographic, geologic, Landsat-8 image, raining data, and seismic data were used as the primary data sources to extract the geo-environmental factors influencing landslides. Thirty-four layers of causative factors were prepared as predictor variables, which can mainly be categorized as topographic, geological, hydrological, land cover, and environmental trigger parameters. The random forest method is an ensemble classification technique that extends diversity among the classification trees by resampling the data with replacement and randomly changing the predictive variable sets during the different tree induction processes. A random forest model was adopted to calculate the quantitative relationships between the landslide-conditioning factors and the landslide inventory map and then generate a landslide susceptibility map. The analytical results were compared with known landslide locations in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The random forest model has an area ratio of 86.10%. In contrast to the random forest (whole factors, WF), random forest (12 major factors, 12F), decision tree (WF), decision tree (12F), the final result shows that random forest (12F) has a higher prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, the random forest models have higher prediction accuracy than the decision tree model. Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility map was classified into five classes (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high). The results demonstrate that the random forest model achieved a reasonable accuracy in landslide susceptibility mapping. The landslide hazard zone information will be useful for general development planning and landslide risk management.  相似文献   

9.
The main purpose of this paper is to present the use of multi-resource remote sensing data, an incomplete landslide inventory, GIS technique and logistic regression model for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China. Landslide location polygons were delineated from visual interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite images in high resolutions, and verified by selecting field investigations. Eight factors, including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, distance from drainages, distance from roads, distance from main faults, seismic intensity and lithology were selected as controlling factors for earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping. Qualitative susceptibility analyses were carried out using the map overlaying techniques in GIS platform. The validation result showed a success rate of 82.751 % between the susceptibility probability index map and the location of the initial landslide inventory. The predictive rate of 86.930 % was obtained by comparing the additional landslide polygons and the landslide susceptibility probability index map. Both the success rate and the predictive rate show sufficient agreement between the landslide susceptibility map and the existing landslide data, and good predictive power for spatial prediction of the earthquake-triggered landslides.  相似文献   

10.
Xiao  Ting  Yin  Kunlong  Yao  Tianlu  Liu  Shuhao 《中国地球化学学报》2019,38(5):654-669

Landslide susceptibility mapping is vital for landslide risk management and urban planning. In this study, we used three statistical models [frequency ratio, certainty factor and index of entropy (IOE)] and a machine learning model [random forest (RF)] for landslide susceptibility mapping in Wanzhou County, China. First, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier geotechnical investigation reports, aerial images, and field surveys. Then, the redundant factors were excluded from the initial fourteen landslide causal factors via factor correlation analysis. To determine the most effective causal factors, landslide susceptibility evaluations were performed based on four cases with different combinations of factors (“cases”). In the analysis, 465 (70%) landslide locations were randomly selected for model training, and 200 (30%) landslide locations were selected for verification. The results showed that case 3 produced the best performance for the statistical models and that case 2 produced the best performance for the RF model. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the accuracy of each model’s results for its respective optimal case. The ROC curve analysis showed that the machine learning model performed better than the other three models, and among the three statistical models, the IOE model with weight coefficients was superior.

  相似文献   

11.
Soil erosion by water is a significant problem in arid and semi-arid areas of large parts of Iran. Water erosion is one of the most effective phenomena that leads to decreasing soil productivity and pollution of water resources; especially, in the Mazayjan watershed in the southwest of Fars Province gully erosion contributes to the sediment dynamics in a significant way. Consequently, the intention of this research is to identify the different types of soil erosion processes acting in the area and to assess the process dynamics in an integrative way. Therefore, we applied GIS and satellite image analysis techniques to derive input information for the numeric models. For sheet and rill erosion the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition Model (USPED) was utilized. The spatial distribution of gully erosion was assessed using a statistical approach, which used three variables (stream power index, slope, and flow accumulation) to predict the spatial distribution of gullies in the study area. The eroded gully volumes were estimated for a 7-year period by fieldwork and Google Earth high-resolution images. Finally the gully retreat rates were integrated into the USPED model. The results show that the integration of the SPI approach to quantify gully erosion with the USPED model is a suitable method to qualitatively and quantitatively assess water erosion processes. The application of GIS and stochastic model approaches to spatialize the USPED model input yields valuable results for the prediction of soil erosion in the Mazayjan catchment. The results of this research help to develop an appropriate management of soil and water resources in the southwestern parts of Iran.  相似文献   

12.
The logistic regression and statistical index models are applied and verified for landslide susceptibility mapping in Daguan County, Yunnan Province, China, by means of the geographic information system (GIS). A detailed landslide inventory map was prepared by literatures, aerial photographs, and supported by field works. Fifteen landslide-conditioning factors were considered: slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, STI, SPI, and TWI were derived from digital elevation model; NDVI was extracted from Landsat ETM7; rainfall was obtained from local rainfall data; distance to faults, distance to roads, and distance to rivers were created from a 1:25,000 scale topographic map; the lithology was extracted from geological map. Using these factors, the landslide susceptibility maps were prepared by LR and SI models. The accuracy of the results was verified by using existing landslide locations. The statistical index model had a predictive rate of 81.02%, which is more accurate prediction in comparison with logistic regression model (80.29%). The models can be used to land-use planning in the study area.  相似文献   

13.
The purpose of the current study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data mining models. Four modeling techniques, namely random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression tree (CART), and general linear (GLM) are used, and their results are compared for landslides susceptibility mapping at the Wadi Tayyah Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia. Landslide locations were identified and mapped from the interpretation of different data types, including high-resolution satellite images, topographic maps, historical records, and extensive field surveys. In total, 125 landslide locations were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2, and the locations were divided into two groups; training (70 %) and validating (25 %), respectively. Eleven layers of landslide-conditioning factors were prepared, including slope aspect, altitude, distance from faults, lithology, plan curvature, profile curvature, rainfall, distance from streams, distance from roads, slope angle, and land use. The relationships between the landslide-conditioning factors and the landslide inventory map were calculated using the mentioned 32 models (RF, BRT, CART, and generalized additive (GAM)). The models’ results were compared with landslide locations, which were not used during the models’ training. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC), including the area under the curve (AUC), was used to assess the accuracy of the models. The success (training data) and prediction (validation data) rate curves were calculated. The results showed that the AUC for success rates are 0.783 (78.3 %), 0.958 (95.8 %), 0.816 (81.6 %), and 0.821 (82.1 %) for RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models, respectively. The prediction rates are 0.812 (81.2 %), 0.856 (85.6 %), 0.862 (86.2 %), and 0.769 (76.9 %) for RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models, respectively. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were divided into four classes, including low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The results revealed that the RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models produced reasonable accuracy in landslide susceptibility mapping. The outcome maps would be useful for general planned development activities in the future, such as choosing new urban areas and infrastructural activities, as well as for environmental protection.  相似文献   

14.
Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling?CNarayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75?%) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25?%) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16?%. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57?% of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80?% accuracy (i.e. 89.15?% for IOE model, 89.10?% for LR model and 87.21?% for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling?CNarayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.  相似文献   

15.
Landslides are one of the most frequent and common natural hazards in Malaysia. Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is one of the first and most important steps in the landslide hazard mitigation. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. For this reason, a number of different approaches have been used, including direct and indirect heuristic approaches, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical, and data mining approaches. Moreover, these landslides can be systematically assessed and mapped through a traditional mapping framework using geoinformation technologies. Since the early 1990s, several mathematical models have been developed and applied to landslide hazard mapping using geographic information system (GIS). Among various approaches, fuzzy logic relation for mapping landslide susceptibility is one of the techniques that allows to describe the role of each predisposing factor (landslide-conditioning parameters) and their optimal combination. This paper presents a new attempt at landslide susceptibility mapping using fuzzy logic relations and their cross application of membership values to three study areas in Malaysia using a GIS. The possibility of capturing the judgment and the modeling of conditioning factors are the main advantages of using fuzzy logic. These models are capable to capture the conditioning factors directly affecting the landslides and also the inter-relationship among them. In the first stage of the study, a landslide inventory was complied for each of the three study areas using both field surveys and airphoto studies. Using total 12 topographic and lithological variables, landslide susceptibility models were developed using the fuzzy logic approach. Then the landslide inventory and the parameter maps were analyzed together using the fuzzy relations and the landslide susceptibility maps produced. Finally, the prediction performance of the susceptibility maps was checked by considering field-verified landslide locations in the studied areas. Further, the susceptibility maps were validated using the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) success rate curves. The ROC curve technique is based on plotting model sensitivity—true positive fraction values calculated for different threshold values versus model specificity—true negative fraction values on a graph. The ROC curves were calculated for the landslide susceptibility maps obtained from the application and cross application of fuzzy logic relations. Qualitatively, the produced landslide susceptibility maps showed greater than 82% landslide susceptibility in all nine cases. The results indicated that, when compared with the landslide susceptibility maps, the landslides identified in the study areas were found to be located in the very high and high susceptibility zones. This shows that as far as the performance of the fuzzy logic relation approach is concerned, the results appeared to be quite satisfactory, the zones determined on the map being zones of relative susceptibility.  相似文献   

16.
In this study, we developed multiple hybrid machine-learning models to address parameter optimization limitations and enhance the spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility models. We created a geographic information system database, and our analysis results were used to prepare a landslide inventory map containing 359 landslide events identified from Google Earth, aerial photographs, and other validated sources. A support vector regression (SVR) machine-learning model was used to divide the landslide inventory into training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets. The landslide susceptibility map was produced using 14 causative factors. We applied the established gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm, bat algorithm (BA), and cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA) to fine-tune the parameters of the SVR model to improve its predictive accuracy. The resultant hybrid models, SVR-GWO, SVR-BA, and SVR-COA, were validated in terms of the area under curve (AUC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The AUC values for the SVR-GWO (0.733), SVR-BA (0.724), and SVR-COA (0.738) models indicate their good prediction rates for landslide susceptibility modeling. SVR-COA had the greatest accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.21687, and SVR-BA had the least accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.23046. The three optimized hybrid models outperformed the SVR model (AUC = 0.704, RMSE = 0.26689), confirming the ability of metaheuristic algorithms to improve model performance.  相似文献   

17.
Flooding can have catastrophic effects on human lives and livelihoods and thus comprehensive flood management is needed. Such management requires information on the hydrologic, geotechnical, environmental, social, and economic aspects of flooding. The number of flood events that took place in Busan, South Korea, in 2009 exceeded the normal situation for that city. Mapping the susceptible areas helps us to understand flood trends and can aid in appropriate planning and flood prevention. In this study, a combination of bivariate probability analysis and multivariate logistic regression was used to produce flood susceptibility maps of Busan City. The main aim of this research was to overcome the weakness of logistic regression regarding bivariate probability capabilities. A flood inventory map with a total of 160 flood locations was extracted from various sources. Then, the flood inventory was randomly split into a testing dataset 70 % for training the models and the remaining 30 %, which was used for validation. Independent variables datasets included the rainfall, digital elevation model, slope, curvature, geology, green farmland, rivers, slope, soil drainage, soil effect, soil texture, stream power index, timber age, timber density, timber diameter, and timber type. The impact of each independent variable on flooding was evaluated by analyzing each independent variable with the dependent flood layer. The validation dataset, which was not used for model generation, was used to evaluate the flood susceptibility map using the prediction rate method. The results of the accuracy assessment showed a success rate of 92.7 % and a prediction rate of 82.3 %.  相似文献   

18.
Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is considered as the first important step in landslide risk assessments, but these maps are accepted as an end product that can be used for land use planning. The main objective of this study is to explore some new state-of-the-art sophisticated machine learning techniques and introduce a framework for training and validation of shallow landslide susceptibility models by using the latest statistical methods. The Son La hydropower basin (Vietnam) was selected as a case study. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed using the historical landslide locations from two national projects in Vietnam. A total of 12 landslide conditioning factors were then constructed from various data sources. Landslide locations were randomly split into a ratio of 70:30 for training and validating the models. To choose the best subset of conditioning factors, predictive ability of the factors were assessed using the Information Gain Ratio with 10-fold cross-validation technique. Factors with null predictive ability were removed to optimize the models. Subsequently, five landslide models were built using support vector machines (SVM), multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP Neural Nets), radial basis function neural networks (RBF Neural Nets), kernel logistic regression (KLR), and logistic model trees (LMT). The resulting models were validated and compared using the receive operating characteristic (ROC), Kappa index, and several statistical evaluation measures. Additionally, Friedman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were applied to confirm significant statistical differences among the five machine learning models employed in this study. Overall, the MLP Neural Nets model has the highest prediction capability (90.2 %), followed by the SVM model (88.7 %) and the KLR model (87.9 %), the RBF Neural Nets model (87.1 %), and the LMT model (86.1 %). Results revealed that both the KLR and the LMT models showed promising methods for shallow landslide susceptibility mapping. The result from this study demonstrates the benefit of selecting the optimal machine learning techniques with proper conditioning selection method in shallow landslide susceptibility mapping.  相似文献   

19.
The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides around the area of Guizhou province, in south-west of China, using a geographical information system (GIS). The base map is prepared by visiting the field area and mapping individual landslide at a scale of 1:500,000 topographic maps. In the study, slope, lithology, landslide inventory, tectonic activity, drainage distribution and annual precipitation were taken as independent causal factors. Therefore, six causal factors maps are prepared by collecting information from various authorized sources and converting them in to GIS maps. The susceptibility assessment is based on the qualitative map combination model and trapezoidal fuzzy number weighting (TFNW) approach. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into four categories of landslide susceptibility: low, moderate, high and very high. In addition, the weighting procedure showed that the TFNW is an efficient method for landslide causal factors weighting.  相似文献   

20.
Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is important for catastrophe management in the mountainous regions. They focus on generating susceptibility maps beginning from landslide inventories and considering the main predisposing parameters. The aim of this study was to assess the susceptibility of the occurrence of debris flows in the Zêzere River basin and its surrounding area using logistic regression (LR) and frequency ratio (FR) models. To achieve this, a landslide inventory map was created using historical information, satellite imagery, and extensive field works. One hundred landslides were mapped, of which 75% were randomly selected as training data, while the remaining 25% were used for validating the models. The landslide influence factors considered for this study were lithology, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to roads, topographic wetness index (TWI), and stream power index (SPI). The relationships between landslide occurrence and these factors were established, and the results were then evaluated and validated. Validation results show that both methods give acceptable results [the area under curve (AUC) of success rates is 83.71 and 76.38 for LR and FR, respectively]. Furthermore, the AUC results for prediction accuracy revealed that LR model has the highest predictive performance (AUC of predicted rate?=?80.26). Hence, it is concluded that the two models showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility in the study area. These two models have the potential to aid planners in development and land-use planning and to offer tools for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

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