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1.
Despite wildfire being an important regulator of dryland ecosystems, uncontrolled wildfire can be harmful to both forest ecosystems and human society, and wildfire prevention and control continue to raise worldwide concern. Wildfire management depends on knowledge of wildfire ignitions, both for cause and location. The regimes and factors influencing wildfire ignition have been studied at length. Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes and human activity is responsible for igniting the largest number of fires in our study area. Understanding the spatial patterns of ignitions is foremost to achieving efficiency in wildfire prevention. Previous studies mainly concentrate on overall wildfire risk integrating numerous factors simultaneously, yet the importance of human factors on ignition has not received much attention. In this study, we mapped human accessibility to explore the influence of human activity on wildfire ignition in a simple and straightforward way. A Bayesian weights-of-evidence (WofE) method was developed based on fire hotspots in China's Yunnan province extracted from satellite images and verified as known wildfires for the period 2007–2013. We considered a set of factors that impact fire ignition as associated with human accessibility: the locations of settlements, roads, water and farmland susceptible to human wildfire ignition. Known points of likely wildfire ignition were selected as training samples and all suspected thematic maps of the factors were taken as explanatory layers. Next, the weights of each layer in terms of its explanatory power were computed and used to generate evidence based on a threshold to pass a statistical test. The conditional independence (CI) of each layer was checked with the Agterberg-Cheng test. Finally, the posterior probability was calculated and its precision validated using samples of both presence and absence by withheld validation data. A comparison of WofE models was made to test the predictability. Results show proximity to villages, roads and farmland are strongly associated with human wildfire ignition and that wildfire more often occurs at an intermediate distance from high-density human activity. The WofE method proved more powerful than logistic regression, improving predictive accuracy by 10% and was more straightforward in presenting the association of dependence and independence. In addition, WofE with 1000 m buffer bands is more robust in predicting human wildfire ignition risk than binary or 100 m buffers for the ecoregion studied. Our results are significant for advising practical wildfire management and resource allocation, evaluation of human ignition control and also provides a foundation for future efforts toward integrated wildfire prediction. 相似文献
2.
Wildfires are widely reviewed as key inputs to Mediterranean ecosystems. However, research is often flawed by major biases. (1) The approach adopted by most planners focusing on forest fires dismisses the human dimension of fire as a component of agricultural production systems. (2) The Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) concept postulates that cities and wildlands/wildfires are, and should remain, worlds apart, a statement whose truth is increasingly questioned by recent disastrous “urban wildfires”. (3) The Mediterranean Basin as a fire-prone area is all the more fantasized, as it is almost never studied as a whole.The present paper takes a critical view of city–wildland/wildfire interrelationships through a large-scale study of the Mediterranean Basin based on MODIS MCD12Q1 (Land Cover Type) and MCD45A1 (Burned Area Product) data collected between 2001 and 2013. The Mediterranean is an ideal place to investigate, as its human-dominated and urbanized landscapes are known to be extremely vulnerable to fire hazards. Data processing reveals that (wild)fires and cities maintain indissoluble ties, as if both elements could not be considered mutually exclusive on a geographical basis. Urban sprawl, reduced rural autonomies, changes in forest covers, old agricultural practices, and military conflicts provide the framework for an extended mitigation process challenging the WUI concept as a space divider. 相似文献
3.
Katarina Pavlek Filip Bišćević Petra Furčić Ana Grđan Vesna Gugić Nino Malešić 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2017,117(1):22-35
Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic. 相似文献
4.
Zlatina Anguelova Douglas A. Stow John Kaiser Philip E. Dennison Tom Cova 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):230-247
Wildfires create a risk to pedestrians traveling through rural areas, because they might not be aware of the presence of a wildfire or its direction and rate of spread until is too late to successfully evacuate. In wildland areas of southern San Diego County, immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border and border security agents are particularly at risk to wildfires. The objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis and associated tools for examining the combined behavior of wildfires and pedestrian mobility to assess the potential threat of fire to pedestrians in wildland areas. Outputs from a geographic information system (GIS) overlay model for determining potentially dangerous fire zones, the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, and a model of pedestrian mobility in wildland areas were combined to generate wildfire risk to pedestrian maps. The key technical contributions of the study are the development and testing of the pedestrian mobility model and the framework and logic for integrating the results of three GIS-based models. The applied geography contribution is the testing of two scenarios of high risk from wildfires to pedestrians within the U.S.–Mexico border zone of San Diego County, California. The study results show that the travel times calculated by the pedestrian mobility model appear to be realistic and are affected by the terrain and vegetation characteristics of a study site, whereas the evacuation trigger buffers (ETBs) from WUIVAC are mostly influenced by the wind speed and direction parameters of the FlamMap fire spread model. A moderate fire danger to pedestrians in the most remote wildland locations of the study area is determined. The scenario test results suggest that if a wildfire occurs within 2 km (extreme southwesterly winds) or 6 km (extreme northeasterly wind) of pedestrians in the worst case location within the San Diego border region they would likely not have a sufficient amount of time to reach a nearby safety zone. 相似文献
5.
森林景观模型研究新进展及其应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
森林景观模型(forest landscape models)是基于森林动态机制和干扰作用在景观尺度上模拟和预测森林时空变化特征的计算机模型。该类模型越来越多地用于森林规划、经营管理、生态资源保护与恢复及全球气候变化研究。本文通过对大量文献资料的整理,对森林景观模型的概念、尺度、类型、方法、应用和最新研究进展进行了综述。随着计算机、地理信息系统、遥感等技术的迅猛发展,森林景观模型将会越来越多地与地理信息系统、规划经营管理决策等紧密结合,未来将向服务性决策模型方向发展。 相似文献
6.
Multivariate analysis of landscape wildfire dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem of Greece 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Kostas D Kalabokidis Nikos Koutsias Pavlos Konstantinidis† Christos Vasilakos‡ 《Area》2007,39(3):392-402
This paper focuses on spatial distribution of long-term fire patterns versus physical and anthropogenic elements of the environment that determine wildfire dynamics in Greece. Logistic regression and correspondence analysis were applied in a spatial database that had been developed and managed within a Geographic Information System. Cartographic fire data were statistically correlated with basic physical and human geography factors (geomorphology, climate, land use and human activities) to estimate the degree of their influence at landscape scale. Land cover types of natural and agricultural vegetation were the most influential factors for explaining landscape wildfire dynamics in conjunction with topography and grazing. 相似文献
7.
Kostas Kalabokidis Nikolaos Athanasis Christos Vasilakos Palaiologos Palaiologou 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(3):541-552
Effective wildfire management is an essential part of forest firefighting strategies to minimize damage to land resources and loss of human lives. Wildfire management tools often require a large number of computing resources at a specific time. Such computing resources are not affordable to local fire agencies because of the extreme upfront costs on hardware and software. The emerging cloud computing technology can be a cost- and result-effective alternative. The purpose of this paper is to present the development and the implementation of a state-of-the-art application running in cloud computing, composed of a wildfire risk and a wildfire spread simulation service. The two above applications are delivered within a web-based interactive platform to the fire management agencies as Software as a Service (SaaS). The wildfire risk service calculates and provides daily to the end-user maps of the hourly forecasted fire risk for the next 112 hours in high spatiotemporal resolution, based on forecasted meteorological data. In addition, actual fire risk is calculated hourly, based on meteorological conditions provided by remote automatic weather stations. Regarding the wildfire behavior simulation service, end users can simulate the fire spread by simply providing the ignition point and the projected duration of the fire, based on the HFire algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed solution is based on the flexibility to scale up or down the number of computing nodes needed for the requested processing. In this context, end users will be charged only for their consumed processing time and only during the actual wildfire confrontation period. The system utilizes both commercial and open source cloud resources. The current prototype is applied in the study area of Lesvos Island, Greece, but its flexibility enables expansion in different geographical areas. 相似文献
8.
森林火灾能对森林资源造成巨大的危害,因此发现林区火源并进行科学决策具有重要意义.本系统数据主要包括1∶1万地形图、1∶1万森林资源二类调查数据、扑火队分布数据、瞭望台站数据、扑火物资储备数据、林业局管理机构分布数据、研究区2010年landsat TM遥感影像图等;系统功能主要包括数据的处理和管理、森林火灾监测、最佳扑火路径分析、防火扑火预案制定和决策、森林火险等级评价、林火趋势模拟和预测、灾害损失评估、相关图表和报告制作等.系统采用Microsoft Visual Studio 2005(C#)作为开发语言,基于Arc Engine 9.3组件进行二次开发,三维地图显示采用skyline Terra Explorer开发平台,数据库采用SQL Server 2005数据库管理系统,利用Arc SDE 9.3空间数据库引擎对空间数据进行管理. 相似文献
9.
YUE HONG CHOU 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):123-140
Abstract Wildfires pose a constant threat to natural resources, endangered species, human property and even human lives. Effective management of wildfires requires a thorough understanding of the environmental and human related factors that are important to wildfires, as well as the complex spatial relationships among them. A geographical information system was used to analyse the data of the Idyllwild 7-5-minute quadrangle in southern California, U.S.A. A probability model which incorporated topography, vegetation, temperature, precipitation, proximity to buildings and proximity to transportation was constructed to generate the distribution of the probability of fire occurrence. Critical zones of danger from fire which need suppression were delineated. Two hypothetical spatial strategies of prescribed burning were evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in reducing the danger to the district from fire and producing a more desirable spatial pattern. 相似文献
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11.
Hanbin Kwak Joachim Saborowski Si-Young Lee Myoung-Soo Won Kyo-Sang Koo 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1589-1602
Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests. 相似文献
12.
Variations of the Treescape in Relation to Urban Development in a Chinese City: The Case of Nanjing*
Urban trees, as prominent and pertinent landscape elements of cities, are increasingly studied by both practitioners and academics. Trees in Chinese cities have hitherto received little detailed analysis from the viewpoint of urban forestry or landscape analysis. This study attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the tree population in Nanjing, focusing on the association between urban development and treescape attributes. Six districts, covering the main built‐up area of 130 km2, formed the study area. Nine land‐use types with varied urban morphology and three urban zones with different development history were identified, within which subareas and trees were sampled for field study of tree dimensions, tree performance, and site characteristics. Statistical analyses on the 6,527 surveyed trees verify that tree performance is significantly associated with land use, site condition, and related human activities. Treescape is associated with housing ownership, town planning, and the history of urban expansion. The relationship between treescape and urban landscape units can furnish hints for improved urban forest planning and management and better coordination between planners and landscape professionals. 相似文献
13.
Wildfires have long been an important environmental concern in Florida. Recent wildfires along the urban-rural interface of large cities in Florida have pointed to the need for an increased understanding of the physical and biological mechanisms that govern wildfire occurrence. Increased awareness of the relationships between global climate changes occurring in the tropics and their teleconnections outside the tropics dictate a reevaluation of the role of phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the risk of wildfire. One simple way of illustrating the relationship between ENSO and wildfire occurrence is the use of an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) on wildfire data that has been categorized according to ENSO status (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years). This research shows that a statistically significant relationship exists between ENSO conditions and annual wildfire occurrence in Florida when ENSO conditions are treated as a potential precursor to wildfire conditions. In particular, a statistically significant relationship exists between both acreage burned and average fire size, when the data are separated into El Niño and La Niña categories according to the previous year's ENSO status. This supports the idea that the climate from previous years has a measurable effect upon fire statistics in the years following the climate measurements, and that it may be possible to create a regional fire prediction model that incorporates ENSO information. [Key words: wildfire, natural hazards, ANOVA, Florida, ENSO.] 相似文献
14.
Natural disturbances such as fires have been widely studied, but less is known about their spatial ecology than about other aspects of them. We reconstructed and mapped pre–Euro‐American fire history in a subalpine forest landscape in southeastern Wyoming, and analyzed the fires using GIS. Mean fire interval varies little with topography (elevation, aspect, slope) and is spatially autocorrelated at distances of at least 2 km. Fires often spread downslope, and spread more than expected from the north and south and less than expected from the west, under the influence of particular synoptic climatic conditions. The landscape of 1868 a.d., at the time of Euro‐American settlement, was strongly influenced by fires. However, it contained large patches of connected forest and few high‐contrast edges, unlike the modern landscape, which is fragmented by industrial forestry and roads. The spatial ecology of the natural fire regime may be a useful guide for management. 相似文献
15.
Matthew P. Thompson 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(6):636-644
Managing wildland fire incidents can be fraught with complexity and uncertainty. Myriad human factors can exert significant influence on incident decision making, and can contribute additional uncertainty regarding programmatic evaluations of wildfire management and attainment of policy goals. This article develops a framework within which human sources of uncertainty in wildfire management can be classified and managed, specifically identifying social, institutional, and psychological factors that can affect wildland fire incident decision making. These factors are reviewed in the context of wildland fire incident management and the literature regarding fire manager decision making. I then provide specific recommendations for addressing these issues, with a focus on improving incident decision processes. Extending this framework to consider a broader set of human factors and to consider how human factors affect the broader wildfire management spectrum could lead to improved fire management outcomes. 相似文献
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17.
Sarah F. Trainor Monika Calef David Natcher F. Stuart Chapin III A. David McGuire Orville Huntington Paul Duffy T. Scott Rupp La'Ona DeWilde Mary Kwart Nancy Fresco & Amy Lauren Lovecraft 《Polar research》2009,28(1):100-118
This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska. 相似文献
18.
To fully understand forest resources, it is imperative to understand the social context in which the forests exist. A pivotal part of that context is the forest ownership. It is the owners, operating within biophysical and social constraints, who ultimately decide if the land will remain forested, how the resources will be used, and by whom. Forest ownership patterns vary substantially across the United States. These distributions are traditionally represented with tabular statistics that fail to capture the spatial patterns of ownership. Existing spatial products are not sufficient for many strategic-level planning needs because they are not electronically available for large areas (e.g., parcels maps) or do not provide detailed ownership categories (e.g., only depict private versus public ownership). Thiessen polygon, multinomial logit, and classification tree methods were tested for producing a forest ownership spatial dataset across four states with divergent ownership patterns: Alabama, Arizona, Michigan, and Oregon. Over 17,000 sample points with classified forest ownership, collected as part of the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, were divided into two datasets, one used as the dependent variable across all of the models and 10 percent of the points were retained for validation across the models. Additional model inputs included a polygon coverage of public lands from the Conservation Biology Institute’s Protected Areas Database (PAD) and data representing human population pressures, road densities, forest characteristics, land cover, and other attributes. The Thiessen polygon approach predicted ownership patterns based on proximity to the sample points in the model dataset and subsequent combining with the PAD ownership data layer. The multinomial logit and classification tree approaches predicted the ownership at the validation points based on the PAD ownership information and data representing human population, road, forest, land cover, and other attributes. The percentage of validation points across the four states correctly predicted ranged from 76.3 to 78.9 among the methods with corresponding weighted kappa values ranging from 0.73 to 0.76. Different methods performed slightly, but statistically significantly, better in different states Overall, the Thiessen polygon method was deemed preferable because: it has a lower bias towards dominant ownership categories; requires fewer inputs; and is simpler to implement. 相似文献
19.
Wildfires cause different impacts, depending on the conditions and resilience level of the exposed communities. Wildfire occurrence in mainland Portugal was assessed with regard to socioeconomic and demographic parameters, to identify the most distinctive conditions of fire-affected areas, without implying the existence of causal relationships. The latest population and agriculture census data were used to retrieve conditions at the civil parish level, regarding demographic patterns, social and labor conditions, physical structures and agricultural activities. To identify differences between parishes, two groups were created with the communities that showed the highest and lowest 20% of wildfire incidence between 2007 and 2014, separately for density of fire events and for burned area. A stepwise approach based on classification trees and random Forest methods was applied to identify the best discriminant variables between the groups. First, irrelevant variables were removed by an interactive process based on misclassification rates. The second step used random Forest analysis to the remaining variables to evaluate their importance in distinguishing the groups. In the final step, cluster analysis was applied to test the correspondence between the clusters created with the selected variables and the initial groups. Results showed that parishes with higher fire density have higher population density, higher proportion of young and educated people, larger families and more overcrowded buildings. On the contrary, parishes with larger burned area are less populated, less attractive to foreigners, have a higher proportion of elderly people, more degraded housing conditions and agricultural activities, visible in the density of sheep and goat and pastures, are still relevant. The cluster analysis demonstrated a better performance of the model for wildfire density, revealing a strong association with socioeconomic dynamics with an agreement above 0.85, much higher than for burned areas which is 0.29. Overall, the spatial distribution of wildfire impacts is framed by societal settings and particular conditions must be further understood to improve the coping capacity of affected communities. 相似文献
20.
基于POI数据的巨型城市消防站空间优化——以北京市五环内区域为例 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
消防站的空间布局事关城市发展与城市安全。本文以北京市五环内中心城区为研究区,使用44.34万条POI数据和道路网等相关数据,考虑易燃易爆、人群脆弱等不同特征的火灾风险因子,采用核密度分析、SAVEE模型等方法,识别出研究区内的火灾风险空间分布,进一步借助“位置—分配”模型和网络分析,并结合优化目标对研究区内消防站进行空间优化。主要研究结论为：①按照火灾风险从高到低排序,前10%的火灾风险区域主要集中在CBD—三里屯、北京古玩城—双井、王府井、南锣鼓巷—雍和宫等区域。②现有消防站对全部44.34万个POI请求点5分钟响应时间内的覆盖率为96.46%,总体覆盖效果较好,但在研究区西北和西南部的世纪城—闵庄一带覆盖不足。③综合考虑高火灾风险区、重要火灾风险因子、POI总体覆盖率和个体消防站覆盖面积相关标准等因素,经多次迭加运算分析得到最终需新增15个消防站点。优化后的各指标均有较大提升,可满足研究区的消防需求。 相似文献