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1.
Summary  Degree-days as a measure of accumulated temperature deviations from a base temperature have many practical applications in various human related activities such as home cooling, heating, plant growth in agriculture and power generation in addition to energy requirement. Long temperature records are necessary for their reliable estimations at given stations. In this paper, degree-day measure has been applied to monthly temperature records for systematically changed base temperature values from − 25 °C to + 35 °C with 5 °C increments at 255 meteorology stations in Turkey. The results are represented in the form of spatial degree-day distribution maps, which are then related to various climatic, meteorological and topographic features of Turkey. For instance, free surface water bodies in forms of surrounding seas, lakes and rivers insert retardation in the expansion of heating degree-days over large regions. On the other hand, cold air penetration from polar regions in the northeastern Turkey originating from Siberia appears at moderate base temperature heating degree-days. Received August 20, 1998 Revised June 21, 1999  相似文献   

2.
Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.  相似文献   

3.
 Annual cycles of monthly albedos simulated with a general circulation model (GCM) are compared with surface observations. The data observed at 35 stations are retrieved from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and drawn from the soil moisture and meteorological observations in the former Soviet Union. The model data are obtained with the ECHAM4 GCM in a ten-year simulation of the present-day climate at T106 resolution. The model calculated albedo values are modified before they are compared with the surface observations: They are interpolated to the stations and adjusted to account for altitude differences and fractional forest area. During the snow-free period, the model underestimates the albedo by up to 0.05 at the stations (with values between 0.2 and 0.25 measured over short grass) because the albedo for grassland is too low in the model. During the period with seasonal snow cover, the model underestimates the albedo by up to 0.2 at stations in Russia, Scandinavia and Canada, which experience severe winters. This underestimation is due to an oversimplified parameterization of the snow covered grid fraction and an inadequate linear relation between snow albedo and temperature. The derivative of albedo with respect to the forest fraction implemented in ECHAM is in line with the observations, although a small overestimation of the model’s gradient has been detected. Received: 3 July 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献   

4.
Summary A regression-based methodology was used to downscale hourly and daily station-scale meteorological variables from outputs of large-scale general circulation models (GCMs). Meteorological variables include air temperature, dew point, and west–east and south–north wind velocities at the surface and three upper atmospheric levels (925, 850, and 500 hPa), as well as mean sea-level air pressure and total cloud cover. Different regression methods were used to construct downscaling transfer functions for different weather variables. Multiple stepwise regression analysis was used for all weather variables, except total cloud cover. Cumulative logit regression was employed for analysis of cloud cover, since cloud cover is an ordered categorical data format. For both regression procedures, to avoid multicollinearity between explanatory variables, principal components analysis was used to convert inter-correlated weather variables into uncorrelated principal components that were used as predictors. The results demonstrated that the downscaling method was able to capture the relationship between the premises and the response; for example, most hourly downscaling transfer functions could explain over 95% of the total variance for several variables (e.g. surface air temperature, dew point, and air pressure). Downscaling transfer functions were validated using a cross-validation scheme, and it was concluded that the functions for all weather variables used in the study are reliable. Performance of the downscaling method was also evaluated by comparing data distributions and extreme weather characteristics of downscaled GCM historical runs and observations during the period 1961–2000. The results showed that data distributions of downscaled GCM historical runs for all weather variables are significantly similar to those of observations. In addition, extreme characteristics of the downscaled meteorological variables (e.g. temperature, dew point, air pressure, and total cloud cover) were examined. Authors’ addresses: Chad Shouquan Cheng, Guilong Li, Qian Li, Atmospheric Science and Applications Unit, Meteorological Service of Canada Branch-Ontario, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3H 5T4; Heather Auld, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, MSC Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada.  相似文献   

5.
Summary One of the great unknowns in climate research is the contribution of aerosols to climate forcing and climate perturbation. In this study, retrievals from AERONET are used to estimate the direct clear-sky aerosol top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative forcing effects for 12 multi-site observing stations in Europe. The radiative transfer code sdisort in the libRadtran environment is applied to accomplish these estimations. Most of the calculations in this study rely on observations which have been made for the years 1999, 2000, and 2001. Some stations do have observations dating back to the year of 1995. The calculations rely on a pre-compiled aerosol optical properties database for Europe. Aerosol radiative forcing effects are calculated with monthly mean aerosol optical properties retrievals and calculations are presented for three different surface albedo scenarios. Two of the surface albedo scenarios are generic by nature bare soil and green vegetation and the third relies on the ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) data product. The ISCCP database has also been used to obtain clear-sky weighting fractions over AERONET stations. The AERONET stations cover the area 0° to 30° E and 42° to 52° N. AERONET retrievals are column integrated and this study does not make any seperation between the contribution of natural and anthropogenic components. For the 12 AERONET stations, median clear-sky top-of-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing effect values for different surface albedo scenarios are calculated to be in the range of −4 to −2 W/m2. High median radiative forcing effect values of about −6 W/m2 were found to occur mainly in the summer months while lower values of about −1 W/m2 occur in the winter months. The aerosol surface forcing also increases in summer months and can reach values of −8 W/m2. Individual stations often have much higher values by a factor of 2. The median top-of-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing effect efficiency is estimated to be about −25 W/m2 and their respective surface efficiency is around −35 W/m2. The fractional absorption coefficient is estimated to be 1.7, but deviates significantly from station to station. In addition, it is found that the well known peak of the aerosol radiative forcing effect at a solar zenith angle of about 75° is in fact the average of the peaks occurring at shorter and longer wavelengths. According to estimations for Central Europe, based on mean aerosol optical properties retrievals from 12 stations, the critical threshold of the aerosol single scattering albedo, between cooling and heating in the presence of an aerosol layer, is close between 0.6 and 0.76.  相似文献   

6.
Summary Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is the driving force for thunderstorm development. CAPE is closely controlled by wet bulb temperature. The lightning activity measured by a network of ten lightning flash counters widely distributed across continental Australia was studied as a function of wet bulb temperature. At each of the stations, the monthly total of lightning ground flashes, N, increased sharply with the increase of the monthly mean daily maximum wet bulb temperature, Tw, max. The dependence was strongest in the tropics and became less pronounced at temperate latitudes. In Darwin (latitude 12° S), the lightning ground flash activity increased by over three orders of magnitude over a 7 °C range of Tw, max. The corresponding increases for Coffs Harbour (latitude 30° S) and for Melbourne (latitude 38° S) were about one and a half orders of magnitude and about half an order of magnitude, respectively, each over a 10 °C range of Tw, max. Power law approximations were derived for each of the ten stations and showed that the logarithm of N was directly proportional to the power, P, of Tw, max. The value of P showed a sharp exponential decrease with increasing latitude away from the equator.  相似文献   

7.
Summary  The possibility of climate change in the Korean Peninsula has been examined in view of the general increase in greenhouse gases. Analyses include changes in annual temperature and precipitation. These analyses are supplemented with our observations regarding the apparent decrease of forest areas. It was found that there was a 0.96 °C (0.42 °C per decade) increase in annual mean temperature between 1974 and 1997. The increase in large cities was 1.5 °C but only 0.58 °C at rural and marine stations. The difference in the mean temperature between large cities and rural stations was small from 1974 to 1981. However, the difference increased from 1982 to 1997. In particular, the warming appears most significant in winter. Prior to 1982, the lowest temperatures were often −18 °C in central Korea, and since then the lowest temperatures have been only −12∼−14 °C. Recently, the minimum January temperature has increased at a rate of 1.5 °C per decade. It is estimated that the increase of1 °C in annual mean temperature corresponds to about a 250 km northward shift of the subtropical zone boundary. The analysis of data from 1906 to 1997 indicates a trend of increasing annual precipitation, an increase of 182 mm during the 92-year peirod, with large year-to-year variations. More than half of the annual mean amount, 1,274 mm, occurred from June to September. Meteorological data and satellite observations suggest that changes have occurred in the characteristics of the quasi-stationary fronts that produce summer rain. In recent years scattered local heavy showers usually occur with an inactive showery front, in comparison with the classical steady rain for more than three weeks. For instance, local heavy rainfall, on 6 August 1998 was in the range of 123–481 mm. The scattered convective storms resulted in flooding with a heavy toll of approx. 500 people. The northward shift of the inactive showery front over Korea, and of a convergence zone in central China, correlate with the increase in temperature. It has been suggested that the decrease in forest areas and the change in ground cover also contribute to the warming of the Korean Peninsula. Received March 16, 2000  相似文献   

8.
Summary Summer-season (May–September) daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily minimum temperature (T min) observations and three types of heat spells obtained from these temperature observations at seven weather stations located in southern Quebec (Canada) for the 60-year period from 1941 to 2000 are studied to assess temporal changes in their characteristics (i.e. frequency of occurrence, seasonal hot days and extremal durations of heat spells). Type-A and Type-B heat spells are obtained respectively from T max and T min observations and Type-C heat spells from simultaneous joint observations of T max and T min using suitable thresholds and spells of duration ≥1-day and ≥3-day. The results of this investigation show that the majority of the selected percentiles (i.e. 5P, 10P, 25P, 50P, 75P, 80P, 90P, 92P, 95P, and 98P) of T max observations show a negative time-trend with statistically significant decreases (at 10% level) in some of the higher percentiles and in the maximal values at four out of seven stations. Almost all of the selected percentiles (same as for the T max) and the maximal and minimal values of T min observations show a positive trend, with statistically significant increases for all seven stations. Examination of frequencies of occurrence of heat spells, seasonal hot days and annual extremes of heat spell durations indicate that many of these characteristics of heat spells have undergone statistically significant changes over time at some of the stations for Type-A and Type-B heat spells as compared to Type-C heat spells. The Type-C heat spells are generally small in number and are found to be relatively temporally stable. More severe Type-C heat spells, i.e. the ones having T max and T min values simultaneously above very high thresholds and with duration ≥3-day have been rarely observed in southern Quebec.  相似文献   

9.
Summary An Australian circular mesoscale convective system (MCS) is examined using available surface and upper air analyses as well as satellite imagery. The MCS formed over central South Australia on 5 February 1997 and lasted approximately nine hours. It is found that MCS generation occurred following anomalous southward penetration of the monsoon trough over Australia. This penetration into southern Australia resulted in an input of extremely moist and unstable tropical air over the region which, together with the development of complex of shallow lows and troughs within the main monsoon trough, led to generation of the MCS. During the lifespan of the MCS, rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm (and up to 175 mm over a four hour period at certain locations) were recorded with accompanying flash flooding and severe damage. A low in the middle levels of the atmosphere was responsible for the eventual decay of the storm. North to north-westerly winds winds around this low continually advected cloud away from the MCS towards the south and south east. This removal of cloud mass eventually led to dissipation of the MCS as it tracked away from the zone of maximum surface heating. Despite this storm just failing to meet the size criterion for mesoscale convective complex (MCC) status, it is very similar to “typical” MCCs found elsewhere in the world in terms of its lifetime and nocturnal nature. Although mesoscale storms of this type are not rare in Australia, MCS’s in South Australia make up only a small proportion of the total number of systems over south eastern Australia. These factors, in conjunction with the anomalous southward penetration of the monsoon trough and associated synoptic conditions, make this storm somewhat unusual. Received September 24, 1999 Revised December 30, 1999  相似文献   

10.
索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流年际变异不同配置及其影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
汪卫平  杨修群 《气象科学》2014,34(6):591-600
使用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料、Hadley中心海表温度分析资料和中国160站降水观测资料,分析了夏季索马里急流与澳洲越赤道气流年际变异之间的关系及相关联的海表温度、大气环流和中国降水异常分布特征。结果表明:夏季索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流的年际变异存在两类关系,即多数的反位相和少数的同位相关系。当夏季索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流呈前者减弱、而后者增强的反位相变化时,热带印度洋—太平洋海气异常表现为处于发展阶段的经典的东部El Nio型,造成东亚夏季风显著减弱,中国降水呈南方偏多、北方偏少的偶极型分布;当夏季索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流同位相增强时,海气异常表现为处于成熟阶段的中太平洋El Nio型,东亚夏季风增强,中国降水呈长江流域降水偏少、而华北和华南沿海降水显著偏多的三极型分布。  相似文献   

11.
This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961–2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components (PCs). The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa (T850), and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa (H850+T850). For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models (GCMs). The results show that (1) the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; (2) although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; (3) when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and (4) compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.  相似文献   

12.
Synoptic climatological patterns that produce anomalous wet conditions in central Australia during the period from September to April have been studied. The analysis was done by using observed daily rainfall data at a number of stations, wind and mean sea level pressure from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) data from 1985 to 1991, and the CSIRO 9-level (CSIR09) global climate model (GCM) simulated data for 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 experiments. On the basis of rainfall values above 99.5 percentile in observed and simulated data, wet days have been selected to study the synoptic-scale weather systems that produce anomalous wet events in central Australia. As the vast majority of days in central Australia are dry, the same number of days with no rainfall for both observed and simulated conditions have been selected randomly. The observed synoptic climatological patterns have been compared with the results of the control simulation of CSIRO9. A comparison between CSIRO9 simulated synoptic patterns and observed synoptic patterns reveals that the model fairly well captures the synoptic climatological characteristics which produce anomalous wet and contrasting dry weather conditions during the period from September to April. Under enhanced greenhouse experiments, the main features of the synoptic patterns are intensified both for wet and dry conditions, which result in an increase in extreme weather conditions, an increase in rainfall intensity, a spatial expansion of the heavy rainfall region during wet days, and an expansion of the dry area during dry days. During anomalous wet conditions, the low pressure area is intensified, monsoonal winds and southeasterlies are strengthened and strong wind shear over tropical Australia is simulated. During this condition, the monsoon shear line moves poleward particularly over the Northern Territory. In contrast, during dry conditions, the anticyclonic circulation over the continent is strengthened.  相似文献   

13.
Three ensembles of AMIP-type simulations using the Arpege-climat coupled land–atmosphere model have been designed to assess the relative influence of SST and soil moisture (SM) on climate variability and predictability. The study takes advantage of the GSWP2 land surface reanalysis covering the 1986–1995 period. The GSWP2 forcings have been used to derive a global SM climatology that is fully consistent with the model used in this study. One ensemble of ten simulations has been forced by climatological SST and the simulated SM is relaxed toward the GSWP2 reanalysis. Another ensemble has been forced by observed SST and SM is evolving freely. The last ensemble combines the observed SST forcing and the relaxation toward GSWP2. Two complementary aspects of the predictability have been explored, the potential predictability (analysis of variance) and the effective predictability (skill score). An analysis of variance has revealed the effects of the SST and SM boundary forcings on the variability and potential predictability of near-surface temperature, precipitation and surface evaporation. While in the tropics SST anomalies clearly maintain a potentially predictable variability throughout the annual cycle, in the mid-latitudes the SST forced variability is only dominant in winter and SM plays a leading role in summer. In a similar fashion, the annual cycle of the hindcast skill (evaluated as the anomalous correlation coefficient of the three ensemble means with respect to the “observations”) indicates that the SST forcing is the dominant contributor over the tropical continents and in the winter mid-latitudes but that SM is supporting a significant part of the skill in the summer mid-latitudes. Focusing on boreal summer, we have then investigated different aspects of the SM and SST contribution to climate variations in terms of spatial distribution and time-evolution. Our experiments suggest that SM is potentially an additional source of climate predictability. A realistic initialization of SM and a proper representation of the land–atmosphere feedbacks seem necessary to improve state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal predictions, but will be actually efficient only in the areas where SM anomalies are themselves predictable at the monthly to seasonal timescale (since remote effects of SM are probably much more limited than SST teleconnections).  相似文献   

14.
 Using atmospheric forcing data generated from a general circulation climate model, sixteen land surface schemes participating in the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes (PILPS) were run off-line to equilibrium using forcing data from a GCM representative of a tropical forest and a mid-latitude grassland grid point. The values for each land surface parameter (roughness length, minimum stomatal resistance, soil depth etc.) were provided. Results were quality controlled and analyzed, focusing on the scatter simulated amongst the models. There were large differences in how the models’ partitioned available energy between sensible and latent heat. Annually averaged, simulations for the tropical forest ranged by 79 1 3;W m-2 for the sensible heat flux and 80 W m-2 for the latent heat flux. For the grassland, simulations ranged by 34 W m-2 for the sensible heat flux and 27 W m-2 for the latent heat flux. Similarly large differences were found for simulated runoff and soil moisture and at the monthly time scale. The models’ simulation of annually averaged effective radiative temperature varied with a range, between all the models, of 1.4 K for tropical forest and 2.2 K for the grassland. The simulation of latent and sensible heat fluxes by a standard ‘bucket’ models was anomalous although this could be corrected by an additional resistance term. These results imply that the current land surface models do not agree on the land surface climate when the atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are prescribed. The nature of the experimental design, it being offline and with artificial forcing, generally precludes judgements concerning the relative quality of any specific model. Although these results were produced de-coupled from a host model, they do cast doubt on the reliability of land surface schemes. It is therefore a priority to resolve the disparity in the simulations, understand the reasons behind the scatter and to determine whether this lack of agreement in de-coupled tests is reproduced in coupled experiments. Received: 15 October 1997 / Accepted: 22 April 1999  相似文献   

15.
This work uses an energy balance climate model (EBCM) with explicit infrared radiative transfer, parametrized tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles, and separate stratosphere, troposphere, and surface energy balances, to investigate claims that a downward redistribution of tropospheric water vapor in response to surface warming could serve as a strong negative feedback on climatic change. A series of sensitivity tests is carried out using: (1) a variety of relationships between total precipitable water in the troposphere and temperature; (2) feedbacks between surface temperature and the vertical distribution of tropospheric water vapor at low latitudes; and (3) feedback between surface temperature or meridional temperature gradient and lapse rate. Fixed relative humidity (RH) enhances the global mean surface temperature response to a CO2 doubling by only 50% compared to fixed absolute humidity, giving a response of 1.8 K. When water vapor is assumed to be redistributed downward between 30°S–30°N such that a 1 K surface warming reduces total precipitable water above 600 hPa by 10%, the global mean surface air temperature response is reduced to 1.2 K. Assuming a stronger downward redistribution in relation to surface temperature change has a rapidly diminishing marginal effect on global mean and tropical surface temperature response, while slightly increasing the warming at high latitudes due to the parametrized dependence of middle-to-high latitude lapse rate on the meridional temperature gradient. A modest downward water vapor redistribution, such that absolute humidity in the upper troposphere at subtropical latitudes is constant as total precipitable water increases, can reduce the tropical temperature sensitivity to less than 1 K, while increasing the equator-to-pole amplification of the surface air temperature response from a factor of about three to a factor of four. However, it is concluded that whatever changes in future GCM response might occur as a result of new parametrizations of subgrid-scale processes, they are exceedingly unlikely to produce a climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling of less than 1 K even if there is a strong downward shift in the water vapor distribution as climate warms. Received: 23 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 November 1999  相似文献   

16.
Summary A spatiotemporal trend analysis of different magnitudes related to the number and length of the dry spells in Catalonia (NE Spain) has been conducted based on daily rainfall records taken from 40 rain gauges during the second half of the 20th century. Dry spells have been computed for threshold levels of 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mm/day at annual and semi-annual scales. The winter half-year is defined from October to March and the summer half-year from April to September. The magnitudes considered are the number, the maximum length and the mean length of the dry spells for every year and half-year. The spatial patterns of the average values of these magnitudes at the annual scale show a greater similarity with those of the summer half-year than with those of the winter half-year. A S–N or SW–NE gradient of the number of dry spells appears during the summer half-year for every threshold level. Trends of the analysed magnitudes are derived from linear regression and local statistical significances at the 95% confidence level are established using the Mann-Kendall test. Field significant trends are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The most relevant finding is that the number of dry spells per year depicts significant trends for the annual and winter-half series, with an overall decreasing trend for 5 and 10 mm/day thresholds. These observed trends are in agreement with changes in North Atlantic cyclone tracks and in Mediterranean Low dynamics, due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.  相似文献   

17.
A variable resolution version of the global GCM ARPEGE is constructed, so that Morocco has maximum resolution. A 30-year simulation, driven by observed sea surface temperature 1971–2000, is carried out. This paper examines the precipitation over northern Morocco during the extended winter season (from October to March), comparing model simulations with daily values at 14 stations. An approach utilising weather regimes has been adopted. The model is successful in representing the frequency and the interannual variability of the regimes. The precipitation over Morocco differs from one regime to another, but the model is not enough rainy along the Atlantic coast in general. The model is too persistent with too long dry spells, but is able to produce heavy rainfall as well as long dry periods in the centre of the area.  相似文献   

18.
本文基于春季欧亚雪盖资料与大气再分析资料的奇异值分解(SVD)分析结果,结合数值试验,研究了春季欧亚大陆积雪变化与春、夏季南北半球大气质量交换的联系。研究表明,当春季欧亚积雪异常偏多时,同期欧亚大陆中高纬大范围地区的地面气温异常偏低,这种冷却效应可能持续至夏季,同时,冷空气的堆积造成了欧亚大陆地表气压(气柱大气质量)的增加,并且对应了夏季北半球大气总质量的异常上升,而南半球大气质量却明显下降。分析发现,春季欧亚积雪异常与夏季南北半球际大气质量涛动存在显著的滞后相关,而且前者还与同期及后期包括索马里急流和对流层上部80°E~120°E区域高空急流在内的多处越赤道气流变化联系密切。从数值模拟结果分析发现,以改变春季初始积雪状况作为驱动,欧亚大陆中高纬地区的低层大气环流出现了显著响应,即当积雪增加时,同期及其后夏季地面气温显著降低,并且冷异常区域对应着气柱质量的异常升高。  相似文献   

19.
Summary Monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation totals in two small catchments in the Czech Republic are estimated from large-scale 500 hPa height and 1000/500 hPa thickness fields using statistical downscaling. The method used is multiple linear regression. Whereas precipitation can be determined from large-scale fields with some confidence in only a few months of the year, temperature can be determined successfully. Principal components calculated separately from the height and thickness anomalies are identified as the best predictor set. The method is most accurate if the regression is performed using seasons based on three months. The test on an independent sample, consisting of warm seasons, confirms that the method successfully reproduces the difference in mean temperature between two climatic states, which indicates that this downscaling method is applicable for constructing scenarios of a future climate change. The ECHAM3 GCM is used for scenario construction. The GCM is shown to simulate surface temperature and precipitation with low accuracy, whereas the large-scale atmospheric fields are reproduced well; this justifies the downscaling approach. The observed regression equations are applied to 2xCO2 GCM output so that the model’s bias is eleminated. This procedure is then discussed and finally, temperature scenarios for the 2xCO2 climate are constructed for the two catchments. Received December 3, 1998 Revised December 4, 1999  相似文献   

20.
Summary Data from two automatic stations in Łódź (one urban and one rural) for the period 1997–2002 are analyzed to reveal urban–rural contrasts of such parameters as air temperature, relative humidity, water vapour pressure and wind speed. Under favourable weather conditions the highest temperature differences between the urban and rural station exceeds 8 °C. Relative humidity is lower in the town, sometimes by more than 40%. Water vapour pressure differences can be either positive (up to 5 hPa) or negative (up to −4 hPa). Wind speed at the urban station is on average lower by about 34% in night and 39% during daytime. Regression analysis shows that for rural winds lower than 1.13 m s−1 urban winds can be stronger than rural speeds. Attention has also been paid to singularities in the course of the analyzed parameters over 24 hour periods. It is shown that the typical course of the urban heat island intensity under favourable conditions is similar in all season. Four stages of this course have been distinguished. Wind speed differences also seem to change in a typical way. Case studies show that humidity contrasts, unlike temperature, can evolve in different ways under fine weather conditions. Types of relative humidity evolution are proposed.  相似文献   

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