共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 25 毫秒
1.
基准气候站自动与人工观测记录对比分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对自动站观测的资料情况,根据相关规定,对青海省6个国家基准气候站人工、自动观测资料进行了对比分析,得到资料的完整性较好,仪器在测定深层地温时的准确性相对较高,遥测仪器对地温的测量与人工观测值的一致程度相对较高。 相似文献
2.
由于人工观测与自动观测在仪器原理及观测方法上均有很大的不同,如何对2种观测结果进行检验具有重要的现实意义。本文从检验原理及检验方法上进行了论述,并随机选取黑龙江省8个观测站2005年1~12月每日02、08、14、20时的平行观测资料,对所有观测要素的人工站和自动站观测结果进行检验。结果表明:人工观测结果和自动观测结果所有要素无显著差异率接近96%,均一化水平较高。总体来看,黑龙江省人工站和自动站观测结果在冬、夏季均一性较差,要素间的差异较明显;春、秋季均一性较好,差异性较小。其中差异性要素冬季集中在相对湿度、浅层地温,夏季集中在地温、风速。此外,造成二者差异的原因主要体现在高纬度环境对观测仪器的影响、观测仪器与方法、人工观测误差与人工维护、观测时间等方面。如要进一步完善自动站观测结果,需要针对本省气候特点和影响差异性的原因做出调整和修订。 相似文献
3.
我国中部地区自动站与人工站气温的差异及原因分析 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16
在我国,地面自动气象观测系统正在取代常规主要气象要素的观测,即人工观测的器测项目,新旧两种观测系统之间存在一定的差异。从气候科学的观点来看,这种差异会造成均一性数据集的开发以及极端天气事件的分析的误差甚至错误,所以将两种系统所获取的资料进行对比是非常必要的。计算了我国中部地区21个气象站2005年的年平均差值,对其中的6个国家基准气候站逐小时数据按照云量、风速、白天和黑夜进行分类对比,并将仪器所处环境、太阳辐射（夜间为辐射冷却）、仪器原理及观测方法的变化认为是气温差异产生的主要因素。研究表明：两种仪器观测的气温年平均差值基本上在±0.2℃之内。在上述差异因素中,大多数的台站仪器差异基本在±0.1℃之间,观测方法差异、仪器环境差异也比较小,而与太阳辐射有关的差异最大。 相似文献
4.
利用陕西省97个地面自动气象站和人工站相对湿度观测数据,研究人工观测与自动观测相对湿度对比差值的大小,对比差值的日、月变化规律以及与所在气候区域的关系,同时研究影响对比差值大小的主要原因。结果表明：自动观测比人工观测的日平均相对湿度平均偏低2.28%,对比差值的标准差为3.07%,自动站与人工站对比差值地域差异不明显,但存在日、月际变化;观测时间不一致并不是造成自动站与人工站日、月平均值差异的主要原因,其大小主要与相对湿度大小有关。7.5%的自动站月平均相对湿度有与历史长序列月平均值相比有显著性差异。 相似文献
5.
6.
7.
地面观测由人工观测发展为自动观测,提高了观测时效和精度,消除了人工读数误差,减轻了观测员的劳动强度。但是由于自动站观测仪器的性能、构造和原理及观测方式与过去人工站观测仪器完全不同,数据处理方式和规定也不相同,这就在报表数据文件的处理上对审核工作提出了新的要求。由于自动站报表审核工作刚起步．对自动站报表审核特点和规范理解掌握不深。容易造成误区。本文就自动站报表审核工作中常见的误区进行分析。 相似文献
8.
利用2001—2005年我国700个地面自动气象站与人工平行观测期间的数据, 对自动与人工观测的气温、气压、相对湿度、地表温度、风速风向、降水量进行了差异分析, 统计了两种观测之间的对比差值、百分误差和风向相符率。 对各要素观测差异在全国的分布特点进行了分析, 并检验了气温自动观测对气温资料连续性的可能影响。 结果表明:自动观测与人工观测各气象要素均存在一定的差异, 但大部分地区各要素的差异都在自动站误差允许范围之内; 造成差异的原因是多方面的, 包括仪器本身存在缺陷及观测方法不一致等。各要素自动观测与人工观测差异在全国的分布特点各不相同, 同一要素在不同的气候背景条件下差异大小不一致; 如果要将人工观测数据与自动观测数据连续使用, 还要检验自动观测与人工观测序列是否有显著性差异, 并进行均一性订正。 自动站的使用对年气温序列有一定影响, 总体差异不显著, 但当自动观测与人工观测气温合并使用时, 应进行均一性检验。 相似文献
9.
10.
11.
Stéphane Hallegatte 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):240-247
Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) selecting “no-regret” strategies that yield benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favouring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying “safety margins” in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective; and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities of adaptation measures. Adaptation–mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies, which are often developed by distinct communities. 相似文献
12.
Abstract Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs. 相似文献
13.
Maciej Sadowski 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):443-451
Adopted by COP 10 (Dec 1/CP.10) and approved by the MOP1, the Buenos Aires programme of adaptation and response measures opens
doors to intensify preparations for expected climate change. By this decision the COP, requested the SBSTA to develop a structured
5-year programme of work of the SBSTA on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability
and adaptation to, climate change. Consequently, the COP, by its decision 2/CP.11, adopted the “Five-year programme of work
of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change”
Finally during COP12 this programme was approved as “Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate
change”. This programme has fundamental significance not only for developing countries, but also for industrialized nations
in which some sectors of the or social life are particularly vulnerable to climate change, specifically, inter alia EIT countries and new EU Member States. Further development of this adaptation programme economy should contain steps that
provide optimum economic and social effectiveness, risk management, identification of vulnerable sectors and gaps in knowledge,
preparation of a list of policy options, including an analysis of cost effectiveness, selection of the most effective policies,
and a preparedness implementation plan. In Poland the preliminary adaptation programme covered agriculture, water management,
and coastal zone management. For the time being, gaps in knowledge and preparedness measures have been identified. An estimation
of possible impact on these areas was based on chosen GCMs, and sea level rise IPCC scenarios. In conclusion, it was stated
that the results achieved should be seen as a first step forward and a more comprehensive study is necessary to update the
results and cover other sectors of the economy, such as health protection, spatial planning, ecosystems and forestry, and
to develop specific guidelines and recommendations for policy-makers. 相似文献
14.
15.
16.
龚朝东 《高原山地气象研究》2006,26(2)
随着用户的增多,MOMINO邮件服务器上的硬盘空间越来越少,如果不增加硬盘空间,将会严重影响到系统的运行,甚至死机.一个解决方案是:为服务器新增一个大硬盘,将数据库文件移到新硬盘上.如何以最小的代价、最快的速度、尽量不影响用户的正常使用来完成此项工作呢?通过查询相关资料,并做了实验,发现有两种方法相对简单. 相似文献
17.
介绍采用W inRoute F irewall软件实现市、县局用户共享上网的方法,使市县局用户既能共享网络资源,又能有效地保障网络安全。 相似文献
18.
We propose linear response functions to separately estimate the sea-level contributions of thermal expansion and solid ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. The response function formalism introduces a time-dependence which allows for future rates of sea-level rise to be influenced by past climate variations. We find that this time-dependence is of the same functional type, R(t) ～ t α, for each of the three subsystems considered here. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to projections from comprehensive models. The pure vertical diffusion case in one dimension, corresponding to α = ?0.5, is a valid approximation for thermal expansion within the ocean up to the middle of the twenty first century for all Representative Concentration Pathways. The approximation is significantly improved for α = ? 0.7. For the solid ice discharge from Greenland we find an optimal value of α = ?0.7. Different from earlier studies we conclude that solid ice discharge from Greenland due to dynamic thinning is bounded by 0.42 m sea-level equivalent. Ice discharge induced by surface warming on Antarctica is best captured by a positive value of α = 0.1 which reflects the fact that ice loss increases with the cumulative amount of heat available for softening the ice in our model. 相似文献
19.
Godefroy Grosjean Sabine Fuss Nicolas Koch Benjamin L. Bodirsky Stéphane De Cara William Acworth 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):151-169
Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account. 相似文献
20.
Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. 相似文献