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1.
Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO2−1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO2−1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO2 yr−1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.  相似文献   

2.
In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the `permanence' of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a `leaky' carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The appropriate formulation of this problem is to ask `what is the value of temporary storage?' Valuing temporary storage can be represented as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about carbon prices and the discount rate. To illustrate the methodology, we calculate the sequestration effectiveness for injecting CO2 at various depths in the ocean. Analysis is performed for three limiting carbon price assumptions: constant carbon prices (assumes constant marginal damages), carbon prices rise at the discount rate (assumes efficient allocation of a cumulative emissions cap without a backstop technology), and carbon prices first rise at the discount rate but become constant after a given time (assumes introduction of a backstop technology). Our results show that the value of relatively deep ocean carbon sequestration can be nearly equivalent to permanent sequestration if marginal damages (i.e., carbon prices) remain constant or if there is a backstop technology that caps the abatement cost in the not too distant future. On the other hand, if climate damages are such as to require a fixed cumulative emissions limit and there is no backstop, then a storage option with even very slow leakage has limited value relative to a permanent storage option.  相似文献   

3.
Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land, water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y?1. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C y?1 via tropical afforestation would require at least 7?×?106 ha y?1 of land, 0.09 Tg y?1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y?1 of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 %. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2?×?108 ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y?1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production), consuming 4?×?1012?m3 y?1 of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Temporary crediting of carbon storage is an instrument that allows entities with emissions reductions obligations to defer some obligations for a fixed period of time. This instrument provides a means of guaranteeing the environmental integrity of a carbon sequestration project. But because the user of the temporary credit takes on the liability of renewing it, or replacing it with a permanent credit, the temporary credit must sell at a discount compared to a permanent credit. We show that this discount depends on the expected change in price of a permanent credit. Temporary credits have value only if restrictions on carbon emissions are not expected to tighten substantially. The intuition is illustrated by assessing the value of a hypothetical temporary sulfur dioxide sequestration credit, using historical data on actual SO2 allowance prices.  相似文献   

5.
A carbon sequestration strategy has recently been proposed in which a forest is actively managed, and a fraction of the wood is selectively harvested and stored to prevent decomposition. The forest serves as a ‘carbon scrubber’ or ‘carbon remover’ that provides continuous sequestration (negative emissions). Earlier estimates of the theoretical potential of wood harvest and storage (WHS) based on coarse wood production rates were 10?±?5 GtC y?1. Starting from this physical limit, here we apply a number of practical constraints: (1) land not available due to agriculture; (2) forest set aside as protected areas, assuming 50 % in the tropics and 20 % in temperate and boreal forests; (3) forests difficult to access due to steep terrain; (4) wood use for other purposes such as timber and paper. This ‘top-down’ approach yields a WHS potential 2.8 GtC y?1. Alternatively, a ‘bottom-up’ approach, assuming more efficient wood use without increasing harvest, finds 0.1–0.5 GtC y?1 available for carbon sequestration. We suggest a range of 1–3 GtC y?1 carbon sequestration potential if major effort is made to expand managed forests and/or to increase harvest intensity. The implementation of such a scheme at our estimated lower value of 1 GtC y?1 would imply a doubling of the current world wood harvest rate. This can be achieved by harvesting wood at a moderate harvesting intensity of 1.2 tC ha?1 y?1, over a forest area of 8 Mkm2 (800 Mha). To achieve the higher value of 3 GtC y?1, forests need to be managed this way on half of the world’s forested land, or on a smaller area but with higher harvest intensity. We recommend WHS be considered part of the portfolio of climate mitigation and adaptation options that needs further research.  相似文献   

6.
Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO2-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.  相似文献   

7.
Afforestation is considered an important option for mitigation of greenhousegas emissions. Recently, plantation projects have been suggested for inclusionunder the Clean Development Mechanism. While considered a cheap option,significant uncertainties make it difficult to determine the (net) carbonbenefits and profitability of forestry projects. The current uncertaintiesabout the regulatory framework of the CDM and the environmental and economicperformance of plantation forestry could create uncertainties with respect tothe additionality of such projects and thus their acceptance under themechanism.Six plantation forestry projects that were proposed in Brazil have been usedas cases to study sources of uncertainty for carbon benefits and economics forsuch projects. These cases vary widely in terms of productivity and productsdelivered. A quantitative model for calculating greenhouse gas balances andfinancial benefits and costs, taking a broad range of variables into account,was developed. Data from the developers of the proposed projects was used asmain source material. Subsequently, scenario's were evaluated, containingdifferent and realistic options for baseline vegetation, carbon creditingsystems and CDM modalities, fluctuations in product prices, discount rates andcarbon prices.The real cost of combined carbon sequestration and substitution for the caseprojects was below $3 per ton of carbon avoided, when based exclusivelyon data supplied by project developers. However, potential variations incarbon impact and costs based on scenario options were very large. Differentbaseline vegetation or adopting a different discount rate cause carbon creditsto vary by as much as an order of magnitude. Different carbon crediting systemsor fluctuations in (commodity) product prices cause variations up to200% in carbon credits and NPV. This makes the additionality of suchprojects difficult to determine. Five of the six case projects seem uneligiblefor development under the CDM. A critical attitude towards the use ofplantation projects under the CDM seems justified.  相似文献   

8.
Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestry's total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO2e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation.

Policy relevance

Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forest's overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

9.
A variety of proposed activities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will impact on scarce water resources, which are coming under increasing pressure in many countries due to population growth and shifting weather patterns. However, the integrated analysis of water and carbon impacts has been given limited attention in greenhouse mitigation planning. In this Australian case study, we analyse a suite of 74 mitigation measures ranked as highest priority by one influential analysis, and we find that they have highly variable consequences for water quantity. We find: (1) The largest impacts result from land-based sequestration, which has the potential to intercept large quantities of water and reduce catchment yields, estimated to exceed 100 Mm3/MtCO2-e of carbon mitigated (100,000 l per tonne CO2-e). (2) Moderate impacts result from some renewable power options, including solar thermal power with a water cost estimated at nearly 4 Mm3/MtCO2-e. However, the water impacts of solar thermal power facilities could be reduced by designing them to use existing power-related water supplies or to use air or salt-water cooling. (3) Wind power, biogas, solar photovoltaics, energy efficiency and operational improvements to existing power sources can reduce water demand through offsetting the water used to cool thermal power generation, with minor savings estimated at 2 Mm3/MtCO2-e and amounting to nearly 100 Mm3 of water saved in Australia per annum in 2020. This integrated analysis significantly changes the attractiveness of some mitigation options, compared to the case where water impacts are not considered.  相似文献   

10.
The micrometeorological technique of eddy covariance is a powerful tool for characterizing the carbon (C) budget of terrestrial ecosystems. Eddy covariance method was used for estimating Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and revegetated manganese mine spoil dump at Gumgaon, India. In this paper, we analyzed the diel CO2 flux pattern and its response to various physical environmental conditions. The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems is particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Study of diel pattern of CO2 flux showed that carbon uptake was dependent on sunlight. Effect of temperature and latent heat on the CO2 flux showed that rate of CO2 uptake increased proportionally, but later declined due to various factors like stomatal response, high evaporative demand, circadian rhythm and/or a combination of all three. Net ecosystem production of revegetated land was found to be 28.196 KgC/ha/day whereas average net carbon release by the ecosystem, through respiration was observed to be 5.433 KgC/ha/day. Thus, quantifying net carbon (C) storage in degraded land is a necessary step in the validation of carbon sequestration estimates and in assessing the possible role of these ecosystems in offsetting adverse impacts of fossil fuel emissions.  相似文献   

11.
The Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector as a whole accounts for more than 80% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in Nepal. This study estimates the GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector in the business as usual (BAU) case during 2010–2050 and identifies the economically attractive countermeasures to abate GHG emissions from the sector at different carbon prices. It also estimates the carbon price elasticity of GHG abatement from the sector. The study finds that enteric fermentation processes in the livestock and emissions from agricultural soils are the two major contributors of GHG emission in AFOLU sector. It identifies no-regret abatement options in the AFOLU sector that could mitigate about 41.5% of the total GHG emission during 2016–2050 in the BAU scenario. There would be a net cumulative carbon sequestration of 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) at $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) during the period. Carbon price above $75/tCO2e is not found to be much effective in achieving significant additional reduction in GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector.  相似文献   

12.
Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) could potentially displace fossil fuels and thus mitigate CO2 buildup in the atmosphere. To determine how much fossil fuel SRWC might displace in the United States and what the associated fossil carbon savings might be, a series of assumptions must be made. These assumptions concern the net SRWC biomass yields per hectare (after losses); the amount of suitable land dedicated to SRWC production; wood conversion efficiencies to electricity or liquid fuels; the energy substitution properties of various fuels; and the amount of fossil fuel used in growing, harvesting, transporting, and converting SRWC biomass. Assuming the current climate, present production, and conversion technologies and considering a conservative estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (14 × 106 ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 33.2 to 73.1 × 106 Mg of fossil carbon releases, 3–6% of the current annual U.S. emissions. The carbon mitigation potential per unit of land is larger with the substitution of SRWC for coal-based electricity production than for the substitution of SRWC-derived ethanol for gasoline. Assuming current climate, predicted conversion technology advancements, an optimistic estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (28 × 106 ha), and an optimistic average estimate of net SRWC yields (22.4 dry Mg/ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 148 to 242 × 106 Mg of annual fossil fuel carbon releases. Under this scenario, the carbon mitigation potential of SRWC-based electricity production would be equivalent to about 4.4% of current global fossil fuel emissions and 20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions.Research sponsored by the Biofuels Systems Division, U.S. Department of Energy, under contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Sciences Division Publication number 3952.  相似文献   

13.
This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO2e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO2e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO2e)???1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.  相似文献   

14.
Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.  相似文献   

15.
Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian crop and livestock production were estimated for 1990, 1996 and 2001 and projected to 2008. Net emissions were also estimated for three scenarios (low (L), medium (M) and high (H)) of adoption of sink enhancing practices above the projected 2008 level. Carbon sequestration estimates were based on four sink-enhancing activities: conversion from conventional to zero tillage (ZT), reduced frequency of summerfallow (SF), the conversion of cropland to permanent cover crops (PC), and improved grazing land management (GM). GHG emissions were estimated with the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA). CEEMA estimates levels of production activities within the Canadian agriculture sector and calculates the emissions and removals associated with those levels of activities. The estimates indicate a decline in net emissions from 54 Tg CO2–Eq yr–1 in1990 to 52 Tg CO2–Eq yr–1 in 2008. Adoption of thesink-enhancing practices above the level projected for 2008 resulted in further declines in emissions to 48 Tg CO2–Eq yr–1 (L), 42 TgCO2–Eq yr–1 (M) or 36 Tg CO2–Eq yr–1 (H). Among thesink-enhancing practices, the conversion from conventional tillage to ZT provided the largest C sequestration potential and net reduction in GHG emissions among the scenarios. Although rates of C sequestration were generally higher for conversion of cropland to PC and adoption of improved GM, those scenarios involved smaller areas of land and therefore less C sequestration. Also, increased areas of PC were associated with an increase in livestock numbers and CH4 and N2O emissions from enteric fermentation andmanure, which partially offset the carbon sink. The CEEMA estimates indicate that soil C sinks are a viable option for achieving the UNFCCC objective of protecting and enhancing GHG sinks and reservoirs as a means of reducing GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 1992).  相似文献   

16.
R. Lal 《Climatic change》2001,51(1):35-72
There is a strong link between desertification of the drylands and emission of CO2 from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Thus, there is a strong need to revisit the desertification process so that its reversal can lead to C sequestration and mitigation of the accelerated greenhouse effect. Drylands of the world occupy 6.31 billion ha (Bha) or 47% ofthe earth's land area distributed among four climates: hyper-arid (1.0 Bha), arid (1.62 Bha), semi-arid (2.37 Bha) and dry sub-humid (1.32 Bha). Principal soils of drylands are Aridisols (1.66 Bha), Entisols (1.92 Bha), Alfisols (0.38 Bha), Vertisols (0.21 Bha) and others (1.27 Bha). Drylands occur in all continents covering 2.01 Bha in Africa, 2.00 Bha in Asia, 0.68Bha in Australia, 1.32 Bha in the Americas and 0.30 Bha in Europe. Desertification, degradation of soil and vegetation in drylands resulting from climatic and anthropogenic factors, affects about 1.137 Bha of soils and an additional 2.576 Bha of rangeland vegetation. The rate of desertification is estimated at 5.8 million hectares (Mha) per year. Desertification is a biophysical process (soil, climate and vegetation) driven by socio-economic and political factors. The principal biophysical processes involved, accelerated soil erosion by water and wind and salinization, reduce soil quality and effective rooting depth, decrease vegetal cover, reduce biomass productivity, and accentuate vagaries of climateespecially low and variable rainfall. Major consequences of desertification include reduction in the total soil C pool and transfer of C from soil to the atmosphere. Total historic loss of C due to desertification may be 19 to 29 Pg. The rate of C emission from drylands due to accelerated soil erosion is estimated at 0.227 to 0.292 Pg C y–1. Therefore, desertification control and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems would improve soil quality, increase the pool of C in soil and biomass, and induce formation of secondary carbonates leading to a reduction of C emissions to the atmosphere. Desertification control and soil restoration are affected by establishing vegetative cover with appropriate species, improving water use efficiency, using supplemental irrigation including water harvesting, developing a strategy of integrated nutrient management for soil fertility enhancement, and adopting improved farming systems. Adoption of these improved practices also have hidden carbon costs, especially those due to production and application of herbicides and nitrogen fertilizers, pumping irrigation water etc. Restoration of eroded and salt-affected soils is important to C sequestration. Total potential of C sequestration in drylands through adoption of these measures is 0.9 to 1.9Pg C y–1 for a 25- to 50-year period beyond which the rate of sequestration is often too low to be important. In addition to enhancing productivity and food security, C sequestration in soils and ecosystem has numerous ancillary benefits. Therefore, identification and implementation of policies is important to facilitate adoption of recommended practices and for commodification of carbon.  相似文献   

17.
A three-step methodology to assess the carbon sequestration and the environmental impact of afforestation projects in the framework of the Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol (Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism) was developed and tested using a dataset collected from the Jonkershoek forest plantation, Western Cape, South Africa, which was established with Pinus radiata in former native fynbos vegetation and indigenous forest. The impact of a change in land use was evaluated for a multifunctional, a production and a non-conversion scenario. First, the carbon balance was modelled with GORCAM and was expressed as (1) C sequestration in tC ha−1 year−1 in soil, litter, and living biomass according to the rules of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) CO2 emission reductions in tC ha−1 year−1, which includes carbon sequestered in the above-mentioned pools and additionally in wood products, as well as emission reductions due to fossil fuel substitution. To estimate forest growth, three data sources were used: (1) inventory data, (2) growth simulation with a process-based model, and (3) yield tables. Second, the effects of land use change were assessed for different project scenarios using a method related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The method uses 17 quantitative indicators to describe the impact of project activities on water, soil, vegetation cover and biodiversity. Indicator scores were calculated by comparing indicator values with reference values, estimated for the climax vegetation. The climax vegetation is the site-specific ecosystem phase with the highest exergy content and the highest exergy flow dissipation capacity. Third, the land use impact per functional unit of 1 tC sequestered was calculated by combining the results of step 1 and step 2. The average baselines to obtain carbon additionality are 476 tC ha−1 for indigenous forest and 32 tC ha−1 for fynbos. Results show that the influence of the growth assessment method on the magnitude of C sequestration and hence on the environmental impact per functional unit is large. When growth rate is assessed with the mechanistic model and with the yield table, it is overestimated in the early years and underestimated in the long term. The main conclusion of the scenario analysis is that the production forest scenario causes higher impacts per functional unit than the multifunctional scenario, but with the latter being less efficient in avoiding CO2 emissions. The proposed method to assess impacts on diverse components of the ecosystem is able to estimate the general tendency of the adverse and positive effects of each scenario. However, some indicators, more specifically about biodiversity and water balance, could be improved or reinterpreted in light of specific local data about threat to biodiversity and water status.  相似文献   

18.
If a binding agreement can be reached on a post-2012 international climate regime, it is likely to include the phased introduction of a market-linked mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD). Under such a scheme, countries that reduce net REDD emissions below a pre-set baseline would receive credits that could be sold in carbon markets and used by purchasing nations to meet their international mitigation obligations. This paper draws on the Australian experience with deforestation to identify some of the issues that might obstruct progress on REDD. For the past 20 years, Australia has had the highest rate of deforestation in the developed world; ~416,000 ha of forests were cleared annually between 1990 and 2009, resulting in the emission of almost 80 MtCO2-e/yr. It is also the only developed country that will rely on reduced deforestation emissions as the primary way of meeting its quantified emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol. Australia’s approach to deforestation issues provides valuable insights into the difficulties an international REDD scheme might encounter.  相似文献   

19.
Using a coupled climate?Ccarbon cycle model, fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are derived through a reverse approach of prescribing atmospheric CO2 concentrations according to observations and future projections, respectively. In the second half of the twentieth century, the implied fossil fuel emissions, and also the carbon uptake by land and ocean, are within the range of observational estimates. Larger discrepancies exist in the earlier period (1860?C1960), with small fossil fuel emissions and uncertain emissions from anthropogenic land cover change. In the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, the simulated fossil fuel emissions more than double until 2050 (17 GtC/year) and then decrease to 12 GtC/year by 2100. In addition to A1B, an aggressive mitigation scenario was employed, developed within the European ENSEMBLES project, that peaks at 530 ppm CO2(equiv) around 2050 and then decreases to approach 450 ppm during the twenty-second century. Consistent with the prescribed pathway of atmospheric CO2 in E1, the implied fossil fuel emissions increase from currently 8 GtC/year to about 10 by 2015 and decrease thereafter. In the 2050s (2090s) the emissions decrease to 3.4 (0.5) GtC/year, respectively. As in previous studies, our model simulates a positive climate?Ccarbon cycle feedback which tends to reduce the implied emissions by roughly 1 GtC/year per degree global warming. Further, our results suggest that the 450 ppm stabilization scenario may not be sufficient to fulfill the European Union climate policy goal of limiting the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.  相似文献   

20.
There is increasing interest in protecting, restoring and creating ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems (BCE; mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) to sequester atmospheric CO2-C and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation. While a growing number of countries aspire to report greenhouse gas emission and carbon sequestration changes from these ecosystems under voluntary international reporting requirements, few countries have domestic policy frameworks that specifically support the quantification and financing of carbon emission abatement through BCE management.Australia, as home to approximately 5–11% of global blue carbon stocks, has a substantial interest in the development of blue carbon policy. Here we assess the potential inclusion of blue carbon within Australia's Emissions Reduction Fund, emphasizing issues and approaches that have global relevance. We used a participatory workshop of scientific experts and carbon industry stakeholders to identify blue carbon management actions that would meet the requirements of the Fund. In total, twelve actions were assessed for their greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and the ability to measure abatement reliably, using a combination of available data and qualitative and quantitative methods, including expert knowledge.We identify and discuss the five most relevant and promising activities, encompassing the protection, restoration and creation of mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses. On a per area basis, mean abatement intensity of organic carbon (Corg) was highest for the (re)introduction of tidal flow resulting in establishment of mangrove (13–15 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1) and tidal marsh (6–8 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1), followed by land use planning for sea-level rise for the creation of new mangrove habitat (8 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1). The avoided disturbance of existing mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses has the twofold benefit of avoiding remineralisation of existing stocks, plus the future annual abatement associated with the net sequestration of atmospheric CO2-C as Corg with the continued functioning of these BCE. Our approach offers a template that uses best available information to identify options for carbon abatement through management of coastal landscapes, and details current knowledge gaps and important technical aspects that need to be considered for implementation in carbon crediting schemes.  相似文献   

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