共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 593 毫秒
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在分析历史降雨资料的基础上,建立流域内各雨量站点雨量与流域平均面雨量的相关关系。结合流域水文站分布图选出与流域面雨量相关性高且有区域代表性的雨量站作为遥测系统的关键测站,保证其稳定运行。利用定点定面关系分析方法,由流域内关键测站的时段雨量推求流域时段面雨量,并带入洪水预报模型进行洪水预报。该方法不依赖流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决流域内雨量站缺测或数据错误时的洪水预报问题。该方法可为无资料或资料短缺地区及新建水库因资金限制只能建设少量测站时的洪水预报提供参考。 相似文献
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一、概述河流水情预报和水利工程设计往往需要使用雨量资料,而流域总雨量又必须通过必要的雨量站来加以估算。测站愈多,算得的流域总雨量愈精确,但建站和观测费用相应地也会增加。因此,对所有地区都布设稠密的雨量站网往往是不现实的,而且也是不经济的。目前的做法是在普遍布设一般雨量站网(密度较小) 相似文献
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通过对北京山区历史泥石流降雨资料的分析,根据有雨量站和无雨量站的泥石流易发区的资料情况,分别建立了不同前期雨量的预报模型,并根据预报模型初步建立了不同前期雨量前提条件下的黄,橙,红三色预报模式。 相似文献
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雨量站网布设会影响径流模拟精度,研究不同雨量站密度和空间分布的径流响应规律对提高径流模拟精度和减小不确定性具有重要意义。应用新安江模型和HBV（Hydrologiska Fyrans Vattenbalans）模型,以湘江流域为研究对象,采用贝叶斯方法比较分析在不同雨量站密度及空间分布下径流模拟的不确定性。结果表明:增加雨量站密度可以降低面雨量的估计误差,使模型在不同的雨量站空间分布下具有较高的模拟精度;通过优化雨量站空间分布,可以减小雨量站网布设导致的模型不确定性,从而提高径流模拟精度;在相同的降雨输入和参数采样方法下,新安江模型和HBV模型对降雨输入导致的不确定性响应规律具有相似性,但是本研究结果显示在湘江流域新安江模型的模拟精度更高,而HBV模型的不确定性更大。 相似文献
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本文根据流域的产、汇流特性，总结了以往对该流域的洪水预报模型研究探索工作中的经验教训，采用了以雨量站控制面积划分单元计算的办法，通过检验拟合，其结果均得到了较好的预报精度。考虑该地区的资料条件，应说是比较满意的。 相似文献
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中小河流流域内配套雨量站网的合理化布设问题,仍然是雨量站网规划中的重要课题。本文试用新安江四水源流域水文模型,对江西雨量站网实验区内所观测到的高密度雨量站点资料,以流量作为目标函数,重演水文站的出流过程,在给定允许误差条件下,确定了最佳配套雨量站数。 相似文献
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水利信息化的不断发展,使得在防汛现场获得实时水文信息成为可能。分析了基于PDA的雨水情查询系统的关键问题,并介绍了系统设计和应用示例。系统以实时雨水情数据库为基础,基于移动网络技术和PDA设备,设计实现了随时随地查询防汛雨水情信息及各类图片文档等信息的功能,为防汛指挥决策提供了技术支撑。 相似文献
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aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of
rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing
system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide
occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions.
Zhejiang Province (101,800 km2 in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive
rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL
uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network
as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region.
Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and
localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003
to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations
of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk
sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized,
easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides. 相似文献
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In recent decades, population growth associated with unplanned urban occupation has increased the vulnerability of the Brazilian population to natural disasters. In susceptible regions, early flood forecasting is essential for risk management. Still, in Brazil, most flood forecast and warning systems are based either on simplified models of flood wave propagation through the drainage network or on stochastic models. This paper presents a methodology for flood forecasting aiming to an operational warning system that proposes to increase the lead time of a warning through the use of an ensemble of meteorological forecasts. The chosen configuration was chosen so it would be feasible for an operational flood forecast and risk management. The methodology was applied to the flood forecast for the Itajaí-Açu River basin, a region which comprises a drainage area of approximately 15,500 km2 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, historically affected by floods. Ensemble weather forecasts were used as input to the MHD-INPE hydrological model, and the performance of the methodology was assessed through statistical indicators. Results suggest that flood warnings can be issued up to 48 h in advance, with a low rate of false warnings. Streamflow forecasting through the use of hydrological ensemble prediction systems is still scarce in Brazil. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this methodology aiming to an operational flood risk management system has been tested in Brazil. 相似文献
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浙江省衢州庙源溪为典型的山区河流,庙源溪雨量丰富,河流比降大,源短流急,洪水陡涨陡落,汇流速度快,洪峰流量大。基于GIS的不规则三角网和空间分析功能,实现水文特征值等值线的内插。根据GIS获取的水文特征值,计算不同历时平均点雨量,考虑点面折算系数,得到平均面雨量。通过频率分析,获得不同频率下的设计雨量。采用瞬时单位线法,进行汇流计算,推求设计洪水过程线及洪峰流量,为制作山洪风险图,建立小流域防洪避洪保障体系提供依据。 相似文献
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Li Li Yang Hong Jiahu Wang Robert F. Adler Frederick S. Policelli Shahid Habib Daniel Irwn Tesfaye Korme Lawrence Okello 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):109-123
Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall
information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood
prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID
and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project
is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid
organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent
of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate
the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster
management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against
gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for
period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain
gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from
2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according
to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction
results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71).
Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models
for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher
accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood
forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must. 相似文献
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降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中... 相似文献