共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
作为全局非线性优化的新方法之一的遗传算法,近年来已从生物工程流行到大地电磁测深资料解释中.然而,大地电磁反演问题具有不适定性,解的非唯一性.通过结合求解不适定问题的Tikhonov正则化方法,本文采用实数编码遗传算法求解大地电磁二维反演问题.此算法在构建目标函数时引入正则化的思想,利用遗传算法求解最优化问题.常规的基于局部线性化的最优化反演方法易使解陷入局部极小值,而且严重的依赖初始模型的选择.与传统线性化的迭代反演方法相比,实数编码遗传算法能够克服传统方法的不足且能获得更好的反演结果.通过对大地电磁测深理论模型进行计算,结果表明:该算法具有收敛速度快、解的精度高和避免出现早熟等优点,可用于大地电磁资料解释. 相似文献
2.
Goodness-of-fit tests for the spatial spectral density 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Rosa M. Crujeiras Rubén Fernández-Casal Wenceslao González-Manteiga 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(1):67-79
Detection and modeling the spatial correlation is an important issue in spatial data analysis. We extend in this work two
different goodness-of-fit testing techniques for the spatial spectral density. The first approach is based on a smoothed version
of the ratio between the periodogram and a parametric estimator of the spectral density. The second one is a generalized likelihood
ratio test statistic, based on the log-periodogram representation as the response variable in a regression model. As a particular
case, we provide tests for independence. Asymptotic normal distribution of both statistics is obtained, under the null hypothesis.
For the application in practice, a resampling procedure for calibrating these tests is also given. The performance of the
method is checked by a simulation study. Application to real data is also provided. 相似文献
3.
确定地震动输入样本容量是开展结构动力地震反应分析的重要环节,目前国内外关于地震动输入样本容量的讨论往往忽略或尚难以定量考虑结构地震反应估计的可靠度水平。以一实际钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,首先分析在大样本地震动作用下结构非线性地震反应的统计特征,研究估计结构地震反应时取样本最大值和平均值的差异,然后借助于假设检验分析结构地震反应的概率分布模型,给出基于一致可靠度的地震动样本容量确定方法,并对比分析单周期点、多周期点、谱值匹配调整地震动及人工合成地震动对样本容量需求的影响,为保证在小样本地震动输入下结构地震反应估计值满足给定可靠度和容许误差提供分析方法和判断依据。本文方法适应于定量确定不同结构类型和不同地震强度水平下的地震动样本容量需求,对建筑结构抗震性能评估及设计规范研究有一定意义。 相似文献
4.
Hydrological models have been widely applied in flood forecasting, water resource management and other environmental sciences. Most hydrological models calibrate and validate parameters with available records. However, the first step of hydrological simulation is always to quantitatively and objectively split samples for use in calibration and validation. In this paper, we have proposed a framework to address this issue through a combination of a hierarchical scheme through trial and error method, for systematic testing of hydrological models, and hypothesis testing to check the statistical significance of goodness-of-fit indices. That is, the framework evaluates the performance of a hydrological model using sample splitting for calibration and validation, and assesses the statistical significance of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (Ef), which is commonly used to assess the performance of hydrological models. The sample splitting scheme used is judged as acceptable if the Ef values exceed the threshold of hypothesis testing. According to the requirements of the hierarchical scheme for systematic testing of hydrological models, cross calibration and validation will help to increase the reliability of the splitting scheme, and reduce the effective range of sample sizes for both calibration and validation. It is illustrated that the threshold of Ef is dependent on the significance level, evaluation criteria (both regarded as the population), distribution type, and sample size. The performance rating of Ef is largely dependent on the evaluation criteria. Three types of distributions, which are based on an approximately standard normal distribution, a Chi square distribution, and a bootstrap method, are used to investigate their effects on the thresholds, with two commonly used significance levels. The highest threshold is from the bootstrap method, the middle one is from the approximately standard normal distribution, and the lowest is from the Chi square distribution. It was found that the smaller the sample size, the higher the threshold values are. Sample splitting was improved by providing more records. In addition, outliers with a large bias between the simulation and the observation can affect the sample values of Ef, and hence the output of the sample splitting scheme. Physical hydrology processes and the purpose of the model should be carefully considered when assessing outliers. The proposed framework in this paper cannot guarantee the best splitting scheme, but the results show the necessary conditions for splitting schemes to calibrate and validate hydrological models from a statistical point of view. 相似文献
5.
In statistical space-time modeling, the use of non-separable covariance functions is often more realistic than separable models. In the literature, various tests for separability may justify this choice. However, in case of rejection of the separability hypothesis, none of these tests include testing for the type of non-separability of space-time covariance functions. This is an important and further significant step for choosing a class of models. In this paper a method for testing positive and negative non-separability is given; moreover, an approach for testing some well known classes of space-time covariance function models has been proposed. The performance of the tests has been shown using real and simulated data. 相似文献
6.
Estimation of the accuracy of geopotential models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary The new Geopotential Model Testing (GMT) method has been theoretically developed and practically applied. It is free of any hypothesis, the limiting factors are the accuracy of the geocentric position of the GMT sites and of their normal heights, as well as the accuracy of the geopotential value W0 on the geoid used as the testing value given a-priori. The GMT procedure occurs on the physical Earth's surface, no reductions are applied. No limits as regards the magnitude of the heights above sea level of the GMT sites are required. The rms error at discrete points of the most recent geopotential model JGM-3 comes out at about ± 1·5 m. 相似文献
7.
基于局部一维模型与走时标定的区域 三维速度模型构建技术研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
构建区域介质三维速度模型并以之获得准确的区域震相走时, 是提高区域地震定位精度的重要手段之一. 为充分利用已有的一维模型、 GT事件、 地质资料等实现三维模型构建, 尝试基于目标区域内已有的部分局部一维模型, 通过克里金空间插值建立初始三维模型, 然后利用GT事件走时数据并参考其它地震地质资料对其不断进行修正, 使得其走时偏差图与GT事件走时偏差图一致, 进而获得能够提高区域地震定位精度的三维模型. 使用不同模型进行的地震定位实验表明, 以此方法建立的三维模型的定位偏差较初始模型减少约20%, 较好地起到了减小区域震相走时残差, 提高区域地震定位精度的作用. 相似文献
8.
通过高应变动力试桩法来获得桩土参数是目前比较流行的试桩方法,其原理主要是通过以桩顶的实测信息来反演桩土参数,其中比较成熟的CAPW APC法主要用试凑法来反演桩土模型参数,其反演结果呈现一定的随机性且正确性过于依赖操作者经验。本文尝试以CAPW APC法所采用比较成熟的桩土模型为基础,引入基于最佳摄动量法的局部优化方法来反演桩土参数。在弹性波波动方程隐式差分的基础上,对反演参数采用摄动展开并推导出参数反演的递推公式,最后给出合适的反演算法。考虑到初始参数对局部优化方法的影响,根据场地的实际情况选取合适的初始模型,计算显示可以获得比较理想的结果,说明本法是对桩基动测方法的一种有效的新尝试。 相似文献
9.
Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
L. Perreault é. Parent J. Bernier B. Bobée M. Slivitzky 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2000,14(4):243-261
Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region. 相似文献
10.
Numerical Study on Behavior of Groundwater Flow in Single Rough Fractures Under Mechanical Effect 
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下载免费PDF全文 Woochang Jeong 《Ground water》2017,55(1):38-50
This paper numerically investigates the characteristics of groundwater flow in spatially correlated variable aperture fractures under the mechanical effect. Spatially correlated aperture distributions are generated using the geostatistical method (i.e., turning bands algorithm in this study). To represent a nonlinear relationship between the effective normal stress and the fracture aperture, a simple mechanical formula is combined with a local flow model. Numerical results indicate that the groundwater flow is significantly affected by the geometry of aperture distribution, varying with the applied effective normal stress as well as the spatial correlation length of aperture distribution. Moreover, using the flow results simulated in this study, two empirical formulae are proposed: (1) the first one (modified Louis formula) is to represent the relationship between the effective normal stress and the effective permeability of fracture and (2) the second one is to represent the relationship between relative roughness and effective permeability. 相似文献
11.
Gyoungju Lee Peter Rogerson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):545-553
The use of global statistics to assess spatial dependence and deviations from spatial randomness often is carried out on a
single dataset. However, there are situations where new datasets become available periodically, and it is of interest to determine
whether there has been a temporal change point, where a new regime of global spatial autocorrelation has been established.
If the global test is simply repeated every time period, change will be often be found by chance alone, even when it has not
occurred, due to the multiple hypothesis testing. Cumulative sum methods are introduced as a method for monitoring the global
statistics; they address the problem of multiple testing, and are optimal for finding temporal changes in the global spatial
statistics. The method is illustrated through an application to data on breast cancer mortality in the northeastern United
States. 相似文献
12.
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借助虚拟反演思路,通过对各种遗传算子不同匹配方式的比较研究,指出了对于频散曲线反演浮点数编码与轮盘赌选择的匹配方式离线性能最好,提出了一种两步优化反演策略.该两步策略利用浮点数编码、轮盘赌选择、浮点数均匀交换与变异算子匹配组成基本遗传算法框架,在此框架基础上施加免疫启发策略和免重复计算加速策略,多次运行,对每次运行结果继续施加模拟退火算法使其至少达到局部最优,最后取得最优解.免疫启发策略充分利用最佳个体的信息加速进化进程,通过对每代的最佳个体施加一服从标准正态分布的随机数来加强对邻近区域的局部搜索,通过标准差的调整也兼顾了对邻近区域以外区域的搜索,将局部搜索和全局搜索有机地结合起来,同时还最大限度地降低了对遗传算法自身进化进程的干扰;免重复计算策略大大减少了正演计算次数,节约了计算成本,提高了反演效率.两步反演策略避免了多次平均法的缺陷,提高了反演结果的稳定性和精度,降低了非惟一性. 相似文献
14.
Minoru Koide Edward D. Goldberg Vernon F. Hodge 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1980,48(2):250-256
In sediments deposited in the coastal basins off the western North American continent since the early 1960's, there is more241Am activity than one would predict if its presence was solely due to the decay of241Pu that was produced during the testing of weapons in 1961–1962 (taken as July 1, 1962 for calculations). This excess can be accounted for by the decay of241Pu, if pre-1962 fallout (fallout from the pre-moratorium testing) has been continuously introduced into the recent sediments along with fallout from post-moratorium testing. This hypothesis is supported by the plutonium depth profiles which do not reflect direct fallout from the atmosphere, as characterized by two peaks corresponding to the two major weapons testing periods, but continuously increasing plutonium and americium concentrations from 1954 to 1974. Thus, the nuclides may be coming from a large reservoir that has accumulated and mixed fallout since 1952. Such a concentration gradient for all of the nuclides requires their immobilization in the sediment after deposition. 相似文献
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Residual structural capacity evaluation of steel moment‐resisting frames with dynamic‐strain‐based model updating method 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 This paper presents a method for evaluating the residual structural capacity of earthquake‐affected steel structures. The method first quantifies the damage severity of a beam by computing the dynamic‐strain‐based damage index. Next, the model used to analyze the structure is updated based on the damage index, to reflect the observed damage conditions. The residual structural capacity is then estimated in terms of changes in stiffness and strength, which can be applied by structural engineers, via a nonlinear static analysis of the updated model. The main contributions of this paper are in performance evaluation of the dynamic‐strain‐based damage index for seismically induced damage using a newly developed substructure testing environment, consideration of various damage patterns in composite beams, and extension of a local damage evaluation technique to a residual capacity estimation procedure by incorporating the model‐updating technique. In laboratory testing, the specimens were damaged quasi‐statically, and vibration tests were conducted as the damage proceeded. First, a bare steel beam–column connection was tested, and then a similar one with a floor slab was used for a more realistic case. The estimated residual structural capacities for these specimens were compared with the static test results. The results verified that the proposed method can provide fine estimates of the stiffness and strength deteriorations within 10% for the specimen without the floor slab and within 30% for that with the floor slab. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The matched filter can be used to identify the location of a specific signal embedded in background correlated noise. The
maximum filter output indicates the likely location and, with appropriate statistical assumptions on the noise, it also serves
as a test statistic in the probabilistic evaluation of the filter’s performance. Different setups of the Neyman-Pearson statistical
hypothesis test yield predictions of either the probability of a miss or that of a false alarm. The needed statistics of the
maximum filter output are properly obtained using the distribution of order statistics. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we
analyzed the ability of the matched filter to identify a sub-surface anomaly in typically correlated gravity fields using
observations of elements of the gravity gradient tensor. We also evaluated the reliability of the hypothesis testing and the
associated predicted probabilities of misses and false alarms. Our simulations and statistical analyses confirm that the power
of the tests increases as the signal strength increases and as more gradient tensor components per observation point are included.
We also found that the hypothesis test that is designed to predict the probability of a miss is more robust and powerful than
the one for predicting a false alarm. Moreover, the probability of a miss is somewhat smaller than the probability of a false
alarm under otherwise equal circumstances. 相似文献
20.
叠前地质统计学反演将随机模拟与叠前反演相结合,不仅可以反演各种储层弹性参数,还提高了反演结果的分辨率.基于联合概率分布的直接序贯协模拟方法可以在原始数据域对数据进行模拟,不需要对数据进行高斯变换,拓展了地质统计学反演的应用范围;而联合概率分布的应用确保了反演参数之间相关性,提高了反演的精度.本文将基于联合概率分布的直接序贯协模拟方法与蒙特卡洛抽样算法相结合,参考全局随机反演策略,提出了基于蒙特卡洛优化算法的全局迭代地质统计学反演方法.为了提高反演的稳定性,我们修改了局部相关系数的计算公式,提出了一种新的基于目标函数的优化局部相关系数计算公式并应用到协模拟之中.模型测试及实际数据应用表明,该方法可以很好的应用于叠前反演之中. 相似文献