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1.
Ram Bichar Singh Yadav Jayant Nath Tripathi Bal Krishna Rastogi Mridul Chandra Das Sumer Chopra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(11):1331-1342
Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian
sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake
of June 12, 1897 (M
w
8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M
w
8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of
the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull,
Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood
has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated
and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample
mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected
mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The
estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of
the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17
(2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022)
years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009). 相似文献
2.
U. Yalçın Kalyoncuoglu 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(2):131-148
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area.
For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and
surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative
method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method.
The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and
epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence
hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the
occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the
studying region. 相似文献
3.
B. Pace P. Boncio F. Brozzetti G. Lavecchia F. Visini 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(10-11):866
We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions.Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard.The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large (M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance 16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 590 years; (2) moderate (M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance 7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 500 years; and (3) large (M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance 24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 980 years.The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction. 相似文献
4.
Saralees Nadarajah Samuel Kotz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(3):164-170
Motivated by environmental applications, we derive the exact distributions of R = X+Y, P = X
Y and W = X/(X+Y) and the corresponding moment properties when X and Y follow Downton’s bivariate exponential distribution. The expressions turn out to involve several special functions. For practical
purposes, we also provide extensive tabulations of the percentage points associated with the distributions. 相似文献
5.
A. Marcellini R. Daminelli G. Franceschina M. Pagani 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(5)
Recent earthquakes such as the MJMA 7.2 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and the M 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake demonstrate once again the need to include detailed soil investigation into hazard evaluation, that is the need of microzonation. Seismic hazard assessment evaluated at a regional scale generally does not consider soil effects but only in a limited way using an attenuation law that can be ‘soft soil’ or ‘rock’. However, the relevant role of seismic hazard in the assessment of seismic coefficients for the definition of the actions in seismic codes must be properly considered. That is to say, the level of protection of buildings is proportional to a definite level of hazard (generally considered to be the ground motion with 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years). When a microzonation is performed, this criterion cannot be ignored, therefore, a clear linkage must be established between hazard (regional scale) and microzonation. The crucial point is represented by the reference motion (or input motion) to be used for site effects analysis, that must be compatible with the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, three different approaches for reference motion evaluation are analysed: probabilistic; stochastic; and deterministic. Through the case history of Fabriano microzonation the three approaches are compared. It is shown that each approach presents advantages and disadvantages with respect to the others. For example, the probabilistic approach (the reference motion is directly derived from the expected response spectra for a given return period) is linked with hazard, but produces an overestimation in short periods range, while the deterministic approach correctly simulates the wave propagation, but it ends with a kind of conditional probability. Until now, clear criteria to choose the right approach do not appear to exist and the expert experience is of fundamental importance. 相似文献
6.
First Order Seismic Microzonation of Haldia, Bengal Basin (India) Using a GIS Platform 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The seismic microzonation of the Bengal Basin, Haldia region, India is carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP) on the Geographic Information System (GIS). Three themes are used for the seismic microzonation, namely Peak Ground
Acceleration (PGA), predominant frequency and elevation map. An analysis of the maximum magnitude (m
max) and the b value is carried out after preparing the earthquake catalogue from various sources. On the basis of the tectonic
set up and seismicity of the region, five seismic zones are delineated which can be a threat to Haldia. They are broadly classified
as Zone 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), Zone 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ), Zone 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ), Zone 4: Bay of Bengal
Zone (BBZ) and Zone 5: Shield Zone (SZ). The m
max for Zones 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are 8.30 ± 0.51, 9.09 ± 0.58, 9.20 ± 0.51, 6.62 ± 0.43 and 6.61 ± 0.43, respectively. The PGA
value is computed for Haldia following the attenuation relationship taking the m
max of each source zone. The expected PGA at Haldia varies from 0.09–0.19 g. The predominant frequency of Haldia is also calculated
using the H/V ratio with a frequency ranging from 0.1–3.0 Hz. The elevation map of Haldia is also generated using the Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission (STRM) data. A first-order seismic microzonation map of Haldia is prepared in which four zones of
hazard have been broadly classified for Haldia as very high seismic hazard zone, high seismic hazard zone, moderate seismic
hazard zone and less seismic hazard zone. The very high seismic hazard zone is observed along the southern part of Haldia
where there are major industrial and port facilities. The PGA for the four hazard zones are: 0.09–0.13 g for low hazard zone,
> 0.13–0.15 g for moderate hazard zone, > 0.15–0.16 g for high hazard zone and > 0.16–0.19 g for very high hazard zone. 相似文献
7.
Disaggregation of the seismic hazard has become a popular technique to convey information on the main sources contributing
to the hazard at a particular site. Recently published work adopts geographic disaggregation analysis of seismic hazard as
a tool to identify dominant rupture scenarios for municipalities in Mainland Portugal. The authors conclude that the seismic
hazard in South and Central Portugal is dominated by the seismicity that takes place offshore, around 70km WSW of Cape S.
Vicente, both for the return periods of 475 years and 975 years. Whilst recognizing the merits of the approach taken and the
utility of the tools developed, we take issue with this last conclusion. We consider that the proposed disaggregation returns
a picture of the biases in the hazard analysis, more than any real feature of the distribution of relevant seismogenic sources. 相似文献
8.
1833年云南省昆明市嵩明杨林地区发生了1次强烈地震,震级被定为8级,这也是迄今为止云南省震级最大的地震。本文选取该地震震中一带为研究区（24.7°～25.5°N,102.3°～103.3°E）,采用网格点密集值计算方法对研究区1966年以来仪器记录的地震进行了计算。根据地震密集等值线图确定研究区有2个地震密集区。通过不同的时窗分析了密集区内地震活动的时间分布特征。利用地震密集时空分布特征与历史强震间的关系,给出了1833年嵩明8级地震震中位置校正的建议。此外,还通过地震密集时空动态变化分析发现,21世纪以来研究区地震密集由NE逐渐向SW方向发展。该现象可能在一定程度上反映出区域应力的变化特征。 相似文献
9.
Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε
max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing ε
max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on ε
max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of ε
max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε
max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by ε
max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε
max value impractical. 相似文献
10.
The structure of the averaged plasma pressure distribution in the plasma ring around the Earth at geocentric distances of
∼6–10R
E
has been determined. The distribution function moments measured on the international THEMIS mission satellites have been
used. The plasma pressure distribution in the equatorial plane at 15R
E
> XSM > −15R
E
and 15R
E
> YSM > −15R
E
has been statistically studied. The radial dependence of the plasma pressure at the day-night and morning-evening meridians
has been analyzed. It has been indicated that the plasma ring around the Earth has a structure, which is close to being azimuthally
symmetric. The achieved results have been compared with the pressure distributions obtained previously. It has been indicated
that in the overlapping regions, the achieved results agree with the previously obtained data within the pressure determination
errors. 相似文献
11.
本文利用晋冀蒙交界地区1500年以来记录较完整的MS5.0及以上历史地震烈度资料和2000年以来的地震活动资料，分别进行地震灾害危险性和地震活动性分析。首先，利用ArcGIS将历史地震烈度资料数字化，没有等震线记录的地震用烈度衰减关系计算烈度圈半径。将研究区划分成0.1°×0.1°的网格，将烈度资料分配到与之相交的每个网格，并用烈度-频度关系计算每个网格的烈度a、b值。基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定，估算未来50年内晋冀蒙交界区遭受某一地震烈度的超越概率。同时，计算50年超越概率10%对应的地震烈度，计算结果表明张家口蔚县、阳原和山西广灵县周边地区的地震危险性较高。最后，采用中小地震能量密度值计算方法，对2000年以来的现今地震活动进行定量分析，与历史地震烈度资料分析结果进行对比，发现中小地震活动圈定的危险区与历史地震烈度资料评估计算的概率高值区相对应，因此，这两种方法可为晋冀蒙交界地区的地震活动性和危险性评价提供参考。 相似文献
12.
This paper is a presentation of an European project called RISK-UE, entitled: “An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns”. It gives the origin, the objectives and the organisation of the project, together with the content of the different workpackages comprising methodological aspects: different features of European town, seismic hazard, urban system exposure, vulnerability of current, historical and monumental buildings, vulnerability of lifelines and essential facilities, seismic risk scenario, with an application to the seven following cities: Barcelona, Bitola, Bucharest, Catania, Nice, Sofia and Thessaloniki. These studies were realized in close relation with the decisionmakers of these cities, in order that they implement Risk Management Plans and Plans of Action to effectively reduce seismic risk. 相似文献
13.
Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales
for moment magnitude M
w and energy magnitude M
e is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M
w and M
e calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the contributions of the physically defined measurement parameters
seismic moment M
0 and radiated seismic energy E
S, the role of the constants in the classical Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–energy relationship. Further, it is shown that M
w and M
e are linked via the parameter Θ = log(E
S/M
0), and the formula for M
e can be written as M
e = M
w + (Θ + 4.7)/1.5. This relationship directly links M
e with M
w via their common scaling to classical magnitudes and, at the same time, highlights the reason why M
w and M
e can significantly differ. In fact, Θ is assumed to be constant when calculating M
w. However, variations over three to four orders of magnitude in stress drop Δσ (as well as related variations in rupture velocity V
R and seismic wave radiation efficiency η
R) are responsible for the large variability of actual Θ values of earthquakes. As a result, for the same earthquake, M
e may sometimes differ by more than one magnitude unit from M
w. Such a difference is highly relevant when assessing the actual damage potential associated with a given earthquake, because
it expresses rather different static and dynamic source properties. While M
w is most appropriate for estimating the earthquake size (i.e., the product of rupture area times average displacement) and
thus the potential tsunami hazard posed by strong and great earthquakes in marine environs, M
e is more suitable than M
w for assessing the potential hazard of damage due to strong ground shaking, i.e., the earthquake strength. Therefore, whenever
possible, these two magnitudes should be both independently determined and jointly considered. Usually, only M
w is taken as a unified magnitude in many seismological applications (ShakeMap, seismic hazard studies, etc.) since procedures
to calculate it are well developed and accepted to be stable with small uncertainty. For many reasons, procedures for E
S and M
e calculation are affected by a larger uncertainty and are currently not yet available for all global earthquakes. Thus, despite
the physical importance of E
S in characterizing the seismic source, the use of M
e has been limited so far to the detriment of quicker and more complete rough estimates of both earthquake size and strength
and their causal relationships. Further studies are needed to improve E
S estimations in order to allow M
e to be extensively used as an important complement to M
w in common seismological practice and its applications. 相似文献
14.
Ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆａｍｂｉｅｎｔｓｔｒｅｓｓｖａｌｕｅｓｆｏｒｍｉｃｒｏ－ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｉｎＷｅｓｔｅｒｎＹｕｎｎａｎ Ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅ Ｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ Ｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔａｌ ＦｉｅｌｄＪｉａ－Ｚ... 相似文献
15.
Irene Sarkar 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(2):239-261
We investigated whether accelerated seismic strain release precedes large earthquakes occurring in and around the Sistan Suture
Zone, Eastern Iran. Online catalogs of teleseismic events occurring post-1960 within the region 27.0°–37.0°N, 55.0°–65.0°E,
report five M
w
> 7.0 earthquakes, namely, 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz, 1978 Tabas, 1979 Khuli-Buniabad, 1981 Sirch and 1997 Zirkuh-e-Q’aenat events.
We defined four earthquake test episodes, 1968–1978, 1978–1981, 1979–1981, and 1981–1997, with all catalogued intermediate
events having magnitudes within 2.0 units that of the final large event. Using the 1968 event as the starting point, we investigated
possible increased moderate earthquake activity patterns prior to the large events of 1978, 1981 and 1997 by examining if
the cumulative Benioff strain released from such preceding events followed a power law time-to-failure. Our investigation
seem to suggest that the 1978, 1981 and 1997 events (i) followed a period of accelerated moderate earthquake activity and
(ii) the radius of their optimal critical region, R, scaled with their magnitude, M, according to the scaling law log R ∝ 0.36 M. Our suggestions conform to those proposed by similar investigations in varied seismotectonic regimes. 相似文献
16.
The intterrelation among strong earthquakes and its application are emphatically studied in this paper. Taking North China
seismic region as study area, we have investigated how a great earthquake influence other strong earthqukaes in neighbouring
area? Does there exist earthqukae immunity phenomenon? If it exists, what distributional pattern did it has in space-time
domain? The results show that occurrence of earthquakes withM⩾7 has cetain immunity phenomenon to earthquakes withM⩾6 in North China. Among others, the immunity area of earthquakes withM=8 is much larger than that ofM=7. For earthquakes withM⩾8, the immunity area to the earthquakes ofM=7 is larger than toM=6.
Based on the above analysis, using some statistical methods, we gave the variational regularity of seismic immunity factor
with space and time, and explored its concrete application in seismic hazard analysis.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 339–346, 1993. 相似文献
17.
We derive S-wave attenuation characteristics, earthquake source parameters and site amplification functions at seismic stations
used for earthquake early warning in the Irpinia–Basilicata region, using non-parametric spectral inversion of seismograms
from 49 local events with M
L = 1.5–3.1. We obtain relatively low Q values (Q
0 = 28 at a frequency of 1 Hz) in conjunction with a strong frequency-dependence (close to linear). The source spectra can
be satisfactorily modeled using the omega-square model, with stress drops ranging between 0.01–2 MPa, and in the narrow magnitude
range available for analysis, the source spectra seem to scale self-similarly. The local magnitude M
L shows a linear correlation with moment magnitude M
W, however with a systematic underestimation by about 0.5-magnitude units. The results obtained in this work provide important
insights into the ground-motion characteristics that are required for appropriate seismic hazard assessment and are of practical
relevance for a suite of applications, such as the calibration of ground-motion prediction equations or the correction for
site amplification in earthquake early warning and rapid calculation of shake-maps for seismic emergency management. 相似文献
18.
William Menke Hannah Abend Dalia Bach Kori Newman Vadim Levin 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(6):603-613
The December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Island earthquake, which ruptured the Sunda Trench subduction zone, is one of the three largest earthquakes to occur since global monitoring began in the 1890s. Its seismic moment was M
0 = 1.00 × 1023–1.15 × 1023 Nm, corresponding to a moment-magnitude of M
w
= 9.3. The rupture propagated from south to north, with the southerly part of fault rupturing at a speed of 2.8 km/s. Rupture propagation appears to have slowed in the northern section, possibly to ∼2.1 km/s, although published estimates have considerable scatter. The average slip is ∼5 m along a shallowly dipping (8°), N31°W striking thrust fault. The majority of slip and moment release appears to have been concentrated in the southern part of the rupture zone, where slip locally exceeded 30 m. Stress loading from this earthquake caused the section of the plate boundary immediately to the south to rupture in a second, somewhat smaller earthquake. This second earthquake occurred on March 28, 2005 and had a moment-magnitude of M
w
= 8.5. 相似文献
19.
A catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region for the period 1897–2009 with 4,497 earthquakes events is compiled
for homogenization to moment magnitude M
w,GCMT in the magnitude range 3–8.7. Relations for conversion of m
b and M
s magnitudes to M
w,GCMT are derived using three different methods, namely, linear standard regression, inverted standard regression (ISR) and orthogonal
standard regression (OSR), for different magnitude ranges based on events data for the catalog period 1976–2006. The OSR relations
for M
s to M
w,GCMT conversion derived in this paper have significantly lower errors in regression parameters compared to the relations reported
in other studies. Since the number of events with magnitude ≥7 for this region is scanty, we, therefore, considered whole
India region to obtain the regression relationships between M
w,GCMT and M
s,ISC. A relationship between M
w,GCMT and M
w,NEIC is also obtained based on 17 events for the range 5.2 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6.6. A unified homogeneous catalog prepared using the
conversion relations derived in this paper can serve as a reference catalog for seismic hazard assessment studies in northeast
India and the adjoining region. 相似文献
20.
Directivity effects are a characteristic of seismic source finiteness and are a consequence of the rupture spread in preferential
directions. These effects are manifested through seismic spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. The
directivity by Doppler effect method permits estimation of the directions and rupture velocities, beginning from the duration
of common pulses, which are identified in waveforms or relative source time functions. The general model of directivity that
supports the method presented here is a Doppler analysis based on a kinematic source model of rupture (Haskell, Bull Seismol
Soc Am 54:1811–1841, 1964) and a structural medium with spherical symmetry. To evaluate its performance, we subjected the method to a series of tests
with synthetic data obtained from ten typical seismic ruptures. The experimental conditions studied correspond with scenarios
of simple and complex, unilaterally and bilaterally extended ruptures with different mechanisms and datasets with different
levels of azimuthal coverage. The obtained results generally agree with the expected values. We also present four real case
studies, applying the method to the following earthquakes: Arequipa, Peru (M
w = 8.4, June 23, 2001); Denali, AK, USA (M
w = 7.8; November 3, 2002); Zemmouri–Boumerdes, Algeria (M
w = 6.8, May 21, 2003); and Sumatra, Indonesia (M
w = 9.3, December 26, 2004). The results obtained from the dataset of the four earthquakes agreed, in general, with the values
presented by other authors using different methods and data. 相似文献