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1.
To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years,and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used.The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains.As a consequence,in the Northeast China Plain,the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m 2,2-5 W/m 2,and 1-3 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1℃-0.2℃、0.1℃-0.2℃、 0.1℃-0.3 ℃ in the spring,autumn and winter,respectively.In the surrounding mountain area,the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected.In summer,effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics,such as evapotranspiration and cloud,instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget.The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties.These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.  相似文献   

2.
The correlation between mean surface air temperature and altitude is analyzed in this paper based on the annual and monthly mean surface air temperature data from 106 weather stations over the period 1961–2003 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that temperature variations not only depend on altitude but also latitude, and there is a gradual decrease in temperature with the increasing altitude and latitude. The overall trend for the vertical temperature lapse rate for the whole plateau is approximately linear. Three methods, namely multivariate composite analysis, simple correlation and traditional stepwise regression, were applied to analyze these three correlations. The results assessed with the first method are well matched to those with the latter two methods. The apparent mean annual near-surface lapse rate is −4.8 °C /km and the latitudinal effect is −0.87 °C /olatitude. In summer, the altitude influences the temperature variations more significantly with a July lapse rate of -4.3°C /km and the effect of latitude is only −0.28°C /olatitude. In winter, the reverse happens. The temperature decrease is mainly due to the increase in latitude. The mean January lapse rate is −5.0°C /km, while the effect of latitude is −1.51°C /olatitude. Comparative analysis for pairs of adjacent stations shows that at a small spatial scale the difference in altitude is the dominant factor affecting differences in mean annual near-surface air temperature, aided to some extent by differences of latitude. In contrast, the lapse rate in a small area is greater than the overall mean value for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (5 to 13°C /km). An increasing trend has been detected for the surface lapse rate with increases in altitude. The temperature difference has obvious seasonal variations, and the trends for the southern group of stations (south of 33° latitude) and for the more northerly group are opposite, mainly because of the differences in seasonal variation at low altitudes. For yearly changes, the temperature for high-altitude stations occurs earlier clearly. Temperature datasets at high altitude stations are well-correlated, and those in Nanjing were lagged for 1 year but less for contemporaneous correlations. The slope of linear trendline of temperature change for available years is clearly related to altitude, and the amplitude of temperature variation is enlarged by high altitude. The change effect in near-surface lapse rate at the varying altitude is approximately 1.0°C /km on the rate of warming over a hundred-year period.  相似文献   

3.
Global climate change during the twentieth century had a significant impact on the glaciers that resulted in creation of new lakes and expansion of existing ones, and ultimately an increase in the number of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) in the Himalayan region. This study reports variation of the end-moraine dammed lakes in the high altitude Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya(HKH) region of Pakistan to evaluate future floods hazard under changing climate in this region. An integrated temporal remote sensing and Geographic information system(GIS) based approach using satellite images of Landsat-7 and 8 was adopted to detect 482 endmoraine dammed lakes out of which 339 lakes(0.02 km2) were selected for temporal change analysis during the 2001-2013 period. The findings of the study revealed a net expansion in the end-moraine dammed lakes area in the Karakoram(about 7.7%) and in the Himalayas(4.6%), while there was a net shrinkage of about 1.5% in the lakes area in the Hindukush range during this period. The percentage increase in the lakes' area was highest above 4500 m asl in the Hindukush, within 3500-4000 m asl in the Himalayas and below 3500 m asl in the Karakoram range. The overall positive change in the lakes' area appears to prevail in various altitudinal ranges of the region. The heterogeneous areal changes in the endmoraine dammed lakes might be attributed to different climate regimes and glacial hydrodynamics in the three HKH ranges. A periodic monitoring of the glacial lakes and their associated glaciers is essential for developing effective hazard assessment and risk reduction strategies for this high altitude Himalayan region.  相似文献   

4.
Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.  相似文献   

5.
Global climate change has a wide range of impacts, and this paper presents an investigation on how global warming has changed the relationship between air temperature and latitude & altitude using the meteorological data obtained from 160 stations in China. The investigation indicates that there are very distinct seasonal differences in patterns of temperature variation as a function of latitude and altitude: a very significant latitude effect in winter and a very significant altitude effect in summer. However, with global warming, the latitude effect in winter is weakening and the altitude effect in summer is strengthening. This pattern of change in the relationship between temperature and latitude & altitude is helpful in efforts to reconstruct and explain the past temperature patterns and variations.  相似文献   

6.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(6):1374-1386
Small water bodies are critical for maintaining freshwater biodiversity, but are among the least investigated aquatic environments. We examined physical and chemical variables at two reaches in Arroyo Tambillos, a small, high-elevation Andean stream, in NW Mendoza province, Argentina,across four seasons to examine how local factors and seasonality affected the structure of the macroinvertebrate community. The Arroyo Tambillos community was numerically dominated by ephemeropterans(mainly Massartellopsis irarrazavali) while the dipteran Chironomidae were the most species rich. Total macroinvertebrate abundance was highest in summer, driven mainly by taxa that were secondary in dominance(Austrelmis sp. and Andesiops peruvianus), while richness did not differ between seasons. However, benthic composition was different in Fall 2013(March)compared to other seasons, largely because of the increased abundance of Chironomidae. Canonical correspondence analysis discriminated Chironomidae species distributions in Fall 2013 by substrate type(i.e., big and small boulder substrate). By contrast,discharge, velocity, and depth were the variables which most affected the macroinvertebrate abundance and distributions. Contrary to our expectations, most community changes observed occurred in fall instead of summer. Nivo-kryal stream communities like the one described here have become increasingly important for conserving mountain stream biodiversity as anthropogentic impacts and climate change increasingly impact lower stream reaches. Therefore, monitoring high-altitude streams like the Arroyo Tambillos may be critical for preventing the future loss of unique and sensitive stream biota.  相似文献   

7.
The studies on prediction of climate in Xinjiang almost show that the precipitation would increase in the coming 50 years, although there were surely some uncertainties in precipitation predictions. On the basis of the structure of glacier system and nature of equilibrium line altitude at steady state (ELAo), a functional model of the glacier system responding to climate changes was established, and it simultaneously involved the rising of summer mean temperature and increasing of mean precipitation. The results from the functional model under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 K/year indicated that the precipitation increasing would play an evident role in glacier system responding to climate change: if temperature become 1 ℃ higher, the precipitation would be increased by 10%, which can slow down the glaciers retreating rate in the area by 4 %, accelerate runoff increasing rate by 8 % and depress the ELAo rising gradient by 24 m in northern Xinjiang glacier system where semi-continental glaciers dominate, while it has corresponding values of only 1%, 5 % and 18m respectively in southern Xinjiang glacier system, where extremely continental glaciers dominate.  相似文献   

8.
随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市热岛难显缓解之势,有关土地利用/覆盖类型、城市规模、城市形态对城市热岛的影响已有较多研究,尚缺少气候背景对我国城市昼夜地表热岛强度的影响研究。本文通过长时序的MODIS地表温度数据,从年均、季节和昼夜3个时间尺度,从全国、气候带、城市3个空间尺度探讨了我国347个城市昼夜地表热岛强度的空间分布特征以及时间变化规律。结果表明:① 昼夜差异:我国城市年均地表热岛强度白天(1.25±0.81 ℃)高于夜晚(0.79±0.43 ℃);② 季节差异:昼夜地表热岛强度在不同季节表现不同,白天表现为夏季高,冬季弱,夜晚四个季节差异不大;③ 气候带差异:昼夜地表热岛强度分布呈现明显的空间分异。白天地表热岛强度表现为热带及亚热带地区高于温带及高原地区,其中南亚热带表现为最强,高原气候区最弱;夜晚则表现为温带高于亚热带、热带及高原地区,其中中温带最强,北亚热带最弱;④ 时空变化:白天地表热岛强度年际呈非显著下降趋势(|Z|<1.96),而夜晚呈显著上升趋势(|Z|>1.96);昼夜地表热岛强度年际变化存在季节差异,白天地表热岛强度夏季上升趋势显著高于其他季节,夜晚四个季节都呈显著上升趋势,其中冬季地表热岛强度上升趋势最大;白天呈显著上升趋势的城市主要分布在热带及南亚热带地区,夜晚呈显著上升趋势的城市广泛分布在中温带和暖温带。  相似文献   

9.
In this study, Land Surface Temperature(LST) and its lapse rate over the mountainous Kashmir Himalaya was estimated using MODIS data and correlated with the observed in-situ air temperature(Tair) data. Comparison between the MODIS LST and Tair showed a close agreement with the maximum error of the estimate ±1°C and the correlation coefficient 0.90. Analysis of the LST data from 2002-2012 showed an increasing trend at all the selected locations except at a site located in the southeastern part of Kashmir valley. Using the GTOPO30 DEM, MODIS LST data was used to estimate the actual temperature lapse rate(ATLR) along various transects across Kashmir Himalaya, which showed significant variations in space and time ranging from 0.3°C to 1.2°C per 100 m altitude change. This observation is at variance with the standard temperature lapse rate(STLR) of 0.65°C used universally in most of the hydrological and other land surface models. Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) was used to determine the efficacy of using the ATLR for simulating the stream flows in one of the glaciated and snow-covered watersheds in Kashmir. The use of ATLR in the SRM model improved the R2 between the observed and predicted streamflows from 0.92 to 0.97.It is hoped that the operational use of satellite-derived LST and ATLR shall improve the understanding and quantification of various processes related to climate, hydrology and ecosystem in the mountainous and data-scarce Himalaya where the use of temperature and ATLR are critical parameters for understanding various land surface and climate processes.  相似文献   

10.
By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China (NET) were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.  相似文献   

11.
Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.  相似文献   

12.
气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明:各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异: ① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。  相似文献   

13.
The study investigated the streamflow response to the shrinking cryosphere under changing climate in the Lidder valley, Upper Indus Basin(UIB), Kashmir Himalayas. We used a combination of multitemporal satellite data and topographic maps to evaluate the changes in area, length and volume of the glaciers from 1962 to 2013. A total of 37 glaciers from the Lidder valley, with an area of 39.76 km~2 in 1962 were selected for research in this study. It was observed that the glaciers in the valley have lost ~28.89 ±0.1% of the area and ~19.65 ±0.069% of the volume during the last 51 years, with variable interdecadal recession rates. Geomorphic and climatic influences on the shrinking glacier resources were studied. 30-years temperature records(1980-2010) in the study area showed a significant increasing trend in all the seasons. However, the total annual precipitation during the same period showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend except during the late summer months(July, August and September), when the increasing trend is significant. The depletion of glaciers has led to the significant depletion of the streamflows under the changing climate in the valley. Summer streamflows(1971-2012) have increased significantly till mid-nineties but decreased significantly thereafter, suggesting that the tipping point of streamflow peak, due to the enhanced glacier-melt contribution under increasing global temperatures, may have been already reached in the basin. The observed glacier recession and climate change patterns, if continued in future, would further deplete the streamflows with serious implications on water supplies for different uses in the region.  相似文献   

14.
以ArcGIS Analyst为支撑,80个气象站点观测的1997-2006年的旬平均气温为插值变量,利用高程、坡向等影响气温空间分异的局地因素作为协同变量,采用协同克里格(CoKriging)方法,考虑旬平均气温的自相关性以及旬平均气温与高程、坡向空间上的关联性,通过数据的检查、误差拟合、精度评价和模型比较,对黑龙江省旬平均气温进行空间插值,求得全省1km×1km的各旬平均气温表面数据。36旬气温插值结果的均误差、均方根误差、平均标准差、标准化均误差和均方根标准差的平均数分别为0.0024℃、0.774℃、0.682℃、0.0006和1.124。由旬平均气温插值结果叠加计算出月、年平均气温表面数据。利用插值计算结果和气象站点观测的数据,分析旬、月和年平均气温的时空分异特征,得出空间上东南部地区分异较小,其他地区分异较大时间上11-13、12-14、19-21等旬期平均气温有平稳下降趋势,15-17、26-28和27-29等旬期平均气温有平稳升高趋势。7月气温有稍许下降趋势,9月和11月的平均气温稍有上升趋势,5-9月平均气温升高约1℃。年平均气温以2.9℃为均值在2.5~3.3℃之间波动,略有升高但无明显上升趋势。春季之交一些旬期平均气温变化率降低趋稳,夏秋之交一些旬期平均气温变化率升高,实际物候有向后延迟的迹象。研究结果为气温变化监测、农业区划、土地生产潜力计算和千亿斤粮食背景下作物估产等相关研究奠定基础。  相似文献   

15.
Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai’s climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.  相似文献   

16.
Studiesshowthattheglobalsurfacetemperaturewilriseatarateof0.3℃per10ainthenextseveraldecades(Houghtonetal.,1990,1992;Shi,1995;...  相似文献   

17.
This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.  相似文献   

18.
温湿指数是气候舒适度评价模型之一,通过温度与湿度的组合反映人体与周围环境的热量交换,本文利用2003-2018年浙江省及其周边71个气象站点月平均气温、地面水汽压数据,以及MODIS水汽产品,基于GridMet模型模拟了浙江省各月温湿指数空间分布(100 m×100 m),分析了浙江省温湿指数随地形因子(海拔、坡度、坡向)变化的特征;讨论了各地形因子对温湿指数空间分布的影响程度。结果表明:① 海拔、坡度、坡向3个地形因子中,1月温湿指数随坡向的变化最大,7月最小;② 同坡向上,坡度变化对1月温湿指数影响较大,而海拔变化则是对7月影响最大;③ 南坡1月温湿指数随海拔和坡度增加均略为增加,南坡其他月份及北坡各月均为随海拔和坡度增加温湿指数减小;④ 北坡相对于南坡而言,海拔和坡度对温湿指数的影响更为明显。浙江大部分山区由于地形影响,夏季较为“舒适”,适宜建立避暑消夏的旅游项目。  相似文献   

19.
The complex spatiotemporal vegetation variability in the subtropical mountain-hill region was investigated through a multi-level modeling framework. Three levels - parcel, landscape, and river basin levels- were selected to discover the complex spatiotemporal vegetation variability induced by climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic processes at different levels. The wavelet transform method was adopted to construct the annual maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index and the amplitude of the annual phenological cycle based on the 16-day time series of a5om Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index datasets during 2OOl-2OlO. Results revealed that land use strongly influenced the overall vegetation greenness and magnitude of phenological cycles. Topographic variables also contributed considerably to the models, reflecting the positive influence from altitude and slope. Additionally, climate factors played an important role: precipitation had a considerable positive association with the vegetation greenness, whereas the temperature difference had strong positive influence on the magnitude of vegetation phenology. The multilevel approach leads to a better understanding of the complex interaction of the hierarchical ecosystem, human activities and climate change.  相似文献   

20.
Impact factors on the salinity budget,especially the eddy salt fluxes and smaller-scale diffusive salt fluxes for the upper 50 m of the Bay of Bengal(BoB) in 2014 are investigated using a box model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS) daily outputs.The model results reproduce that the precipitation and river runoffs are the dominant factors modulating the sharp salinity decrease during the summer monsoon season.The analysis shows that the salinity increase after the summer monsoon is mostly due to the meridional advective and diffusive salt fluxes.The vertical advective salt flux,which is sensitive to the different signals of the wind stress curl,plays an important role in balancing the salinity change induced by the meridional advective salt flux during both the summer and winter monsoon seasons.Distinctive spatial mesosc ale structures are presented in the eddy salt flux throughout the year,and their contributions are sizeable(over 30% in the meridional direction and about 10%-30% in the vertical direction).The meridional eddy salt flux is larger in the monsoon seasons than that in the inter-monsoon seasons,and in a positive pattern near the western boundary during the winter monsoon and autumn inter-monsoon.The vertical eddy salt flux makes an important contribution to the salinity budget,especially along the coastal area and around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.The vertical eddy salt flux becomes large when a tropical cyclone passes the area.  相似文献   

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