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煤层顶底板突水危险性预测与评价是煤矿突水灾害防治的基础和依据。针对煤层底板隔水介质条件,分析了煤系岩石力学性质,煤层底板突水的岩性、结构和厚度特征,建立了煤层底板突水危险性评价理论和方法。研究表明:煤层底板隔水介质条件取决于隔水层岩性和断裂构造,随着底板泥岩含量增加,煤层底板隔水性能增高,但抗水压能力降低;随着断裂发育程度的增加,底板隔水层由完整结构、块裂结构到碎裂结构和松散结构,煤层底板抗水压能力和隔水性能均降低,突水危险性增大。煤层底板抗水压能力与煤层底板隔水层厚度密切相关,统计表明,煤层底板受的极限水压p与底板隔水层厚度h之间为2次幂函数关系。在传统突水系数的基础上考虑了隔水层的岩性和结构特征,提出了煤层底板突水危险评价分类;进一步根据水压Pw与岩体破裂压力Pc关系和水压Pw与最小主应力σhmin关系判断是否突水。 相似文献
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带压开采时隔水层的隔水能力研究 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
煤层底板隔水层隔水能力是影响带压开采安全性的重要因素。以往,人们偏重于对隔水层岩性、厚度及组合情况等宏观特征研究。文中从微观研究入手,结合宏观研究探讨隔水层隔水能力研究方法, 相似文献
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基于硬石膏矿层底板灰岩水文地质和工程地质条件计算的矿层开采后导水裂隙带的高度为16m,原位张裂隙带高度为5m。为防止采矿时底板突水,设计预留隔水石膏矿柱80m,其有效隔水层厚度为59m。运用突水系法和阻水强度法计算的有效隔水层厚度分别为61、50和36m。根据技术、经济和安全的原则,分析认为有效隔水层厚度取50m就能达到安全开采的目的。 相似文献
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承压水导升带是煤层带压开采安全评价的重要因素。为了综合研究其影响因素的作用,基于流-固耦合理论,建立了煤层底板突水的水文地质物理概念模型和数值模型,采用FLAC3D数值模拟软件开展了工作面宽度（A）、隔水层厚度（B）、承压水压力（C）、煤层埋深（D）、隔水层渗透系数（E）5个因素5水平的有空列正交模拟试验。结果表明:煤层底板承压水导升高度与底板含水层水压和隔水层渗透性关系密切;各因素对试验结果的影响程度强弱顺序是E>C>D>B>A,其中因素E和C对实验结果影响显著;初始水头压力越大,水头衰减速率就越大,并随着导升高度的增加而加快。改变影响因素而导致承压水压力的变化揭示了煤层开采过程中承压水导升带高度的变化规律,为带压煤层的安全开采提供理论依据。 相似文献
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从地质构造、含水层、隔水层、开采条件等方面详细分析了赵官井田10煤层底板突水的影响因素,确定了断层强度指数、褶皱分维值、"底板充水含水层组"水压、"底板充水含水层组"富水性、奥灰富水性、隔水层厚度、泥岩比率、底板破坏深度8个主控因素作为10煤层底板突水危险性评价的决策指标,并建立了各主控因素专题图;运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各主控因素的权重系数,建立了基于"脆弱性指数法"的底板突水危险性评价模型,对10煤层底板突水危险性进行了定量评价,结果表明:在井田的南部煤层露头处脆弱性指数小,突水可能性较小;在井田的北部,特别是在井田东北部,脆弱性指数大,突水危险性较大。 相似文献
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新阳矿9-10-11号煤层底板低于奥灰岩溶水位,承受水压较高,存在带压开采问题。依据矿区水文地质勘查资料,通过对9-10-11号煤层底板隔水岩层隔水性能、奥灰岩溶水富水程度、底板断裂构造发育情况、煤层底板承压大小以及采煤扰动底板破坏深度等突水因素分析,表明井田西南部断裂构造发育地段为突水危险区。分别采用突水系数法和突水危险度法对全井田9-10-11号煤层底板突水危险性进行评价,评价结果显示井田南部及断裂构造发育地段为突水危险区。理论分析与定量评价结果基本一致。针对9-10-11号煤层底板突水安全评价结果,提出了相应的防突水对策。 相似文献
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根据本矿区的地质、水文地质及工程地质资料,确定了矿区9号煤层底板的有效隔水层厚度,并以此计算了9号煤层带压开采的突水系数,对开采受承压水威胁9号煤层的安全区与危险区进行了划分,为西峪煤矿开采提供了资料,对于指导该矿安全生产具有一定的意义. 相似文献
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提出了基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析的实用算法。选择U空间中的随机变量,通过空间变换和相关矩阵分解,计算试验点的功能函数;通过迭代算法构造响应面、以确保通过最小的计算量获得最优精度,并在此基础上进行FORM/SORM计算。以一岩石边坡的平面滑动问题为例,通过与蒙特卡洛模拟、FORM及随机响应面法的比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。分析了参数的相关性及试验点取值范围对计算结果的影响,讨论了可靠度分析结果中参数敏感性和物理属性问题。该方法可为实际边坡问题的可靠度分析提供参考,并可以用来进行基于可靠度分析的加固设计。 相似文献
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This paper proposes a stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal random variables, in which the Nataf transformation is adopted to effectively transform the correlated non-normal variables into independent standard normal variables. Transformations of random variables that are often used in reliability analyses in terms of standard normal variables are summarized. The closed-form expressions for fourth to sixth order Hermite polynomial chaos expansions involving any number of random variables are formulated. The proposed method will substantially extend the application of stochastic response surface method for reliability problems. An example of reliability analysis of rock slope stability with plane failure is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed stochastic response surface method. The results indicate that the proposed stochastic response surface method can evaluate the reliability of rock slope stability involving correlated non-normal variables accurately and efficiently. Its accuracy is shown to be higher than that for the first-order reliability method, and it is much more efficient than direct Monte-Carlo simulation. The results also show that the number of collocation points selected should ensure that the Hermite polynomial matrix has a full rank so that different order SRSMs can produce a robust estimation of probability of failure for a specified performance function. Generally, the accuracy of SRSM increases as the order of SRSM increases. 相似文献
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This paper aims to provide a stochastic response surface method (SRSM) that can consider non-Gaussian dependent random variables under incomplete probability information. The Rosenblatt transformation is adopted to map the random variables from the original space into the mutually independent standard normal space for the stochastic surrogate model development. The multivariate joint distribution is reconstructed by the pair-copula decomposition approach, in which the pair-copula parameters are retrieved from the incomplete probability information. The proposed method is illustrated in a tunnel excavation example. Three different dependence structures characterized by normal copulas, Frank copulas, and hybrid copulas are respectively investigated to demonstrate the effect of dependence structure on the reliability results. The results show that the widely used Nataf transformation is actually a special case of the proposed method if all pair-copulas are normal copulas. The effect of conditioning order is also examined. This study provides a new insight into the SRSM-based reliability analysis from the copula viewpoint and extends the application of SRSM under incomplete probability information. 相似文献
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Slope reliability analysis using a support vector machine 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
The first-order second-moment method (FOSM) reliability analysis is commonly used for slope stability analysis. It requires the values and partial derivatives of the performance function with respect to the random variables for the design. Such calculations can be cumbersome when the performance functions are implicit. Implicit performance functions are normally encountered when the slope is geologically complicated and the limit equilibrium method (LEM) is used for the stability analysis.
To address this issue, this paper presents a support vector machine (SVM)-based reliability analysis method which combines the SVM with the FOSM. This method employs the SVM method to approximate the implicit performance functions, thus arriving at SVM-based explicit performance functions. The SVM method uses a small set of the actual values of the performance functions obtained via the LEM for complicated slope engineering. Using the SVM model, a large number of values and partial derivatives of the performance functions can be obtained for conventional reliability analysis using the FOSM. Examples are given to illustrate the proposed SVM-based slope reliability analysis. The results show that the proposed approach is applicable to slope reliability analysis which involves implicit performance functions. 相似文献
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以模糊随机变量理论为指导,视模糊随机变量的均值为模糊数,基于小样本理论推导了均值模糊数模糊变化范围与样本数的关系式。采用截集敏感性分析法进行了边坡稳定的模糊随机有限元可靠度分析,得到了边坡的模糊随机可靠指标及模糊滑面的位置,研究了样本数与边坡模糊随机可靠指标的关系。分析表明,基于模糊随机变量理论的模糊随机可靠度分析方法是随机可靠度分析方法的自然推广;模糊随机可靠指标与样本数有关,随着样本数的改变,模糊随机可靠指标的中值也会发生微小变化,不是定值;在相同的置信度情况下,模糊随机可靠指标的变化范围随着样本数的增加而减小,可通过增加样本数的方式来减小模糊随机可靠指标的模糊性。 相似文献
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《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638
To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability. 相似文献
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基于连续介质力学模型,提出了一种简单易行的可靠性分析方法,该方法能利用现行通用的有限元程序,能得到显式的功能函数,但又不同于响应面法。以公路隧道圆形隧洞的开挖支护为例,采用此方法将围岩参数c (黏聚力)、E,? 和二次衬砌厚度D作为随机变量,采用有限元程序得到单一变量变化下的衬砌轴应力值,进而拟合出衬砌轴应力关于单一随机变量的关系式,并通过多元线性或非线性回归得到衬砌轴应力关于所有随机变量的显示表达式,再对圆形隧洞的衬砌结构进行了敏感性和可靠性分析,得到了一些有意义的结论。 相似文献
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吴道荣 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2007,18(3):108-111
以国内广泛使用的传递系数法的平衡方程为基础,运用"国际结构安全度联合委员会(JCSS)"推荐的验算点法建立边坡工程可靠度分析模型,分别分析了某边坡基于随机变量模型和随机场模型时的边坡稳定性可靠度和破坏概率。计算结果表明,用随机变量模型计算出的破坏概率明显偏大,采用随机场模型比较符合实际情况。本例采用随机场模型计算时,方差折减系数可取0.5。 相似文献
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边坡稳定性分析中,模糊点估计法能同时考虑模糊不确定性和随机不确定性因素。针对传统模糊点估计法计算工作量大的缺点,提出一种神经网络改进模糊点估计法。利用拉丁超立方抽样法和径向基函数神经网络（RBF）建立边坡安全系数的预测模型;对黏聚力和内摩擦角等模糊随机变量取λ截集,并在各截集水平对参数进行组合;利用建立的预测模型对各参数组合的安全系数进行预测;最后由统计矩点估计法计算边坡的可靠度指标。实例分析表明：改进模糊点估计法使用方便、结果可靠,且能通过增加λ截集水平的数目来提高计算精度。对于含有2～4个模糊随机变量的边坡,采用改进模糊点估计法计算可靠度时λ截集水平的数目可近似取25。 相似文献