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1.
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(2):221-233
The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single ‘correct’ assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. 相似文献
2.
Vietnam is highly prone to climatic hazards, including extreme weather events and marked seasonal changes. Climatic hazards have wide-ranging implications for human health, but in most hazard-prone countries there has been little household level research on health risks. Drawing on the results of exploratory research in low-income communities in the Central Provinces and the Mekong Delta, this paper uses a qualitative approach to examine how the social dimensions of vulnerability can come into play in the generation of health outcomes associated with hazards. It explores particularly how aspects of economic livelihood, physical location, education and protective behaviour combined to influence the exposure and susceptibility of households, as well as to shape their capability to avoid adverse health impacts. These aspects were closely linked with, but not solely determined by, income-poverty: underlining the argument that understanding of risks to health in low-income settings requires careful analysis of this complex shaping of vulnerability. It also requires recognition that health protection for the poor may be articulated more in terms of protection of wider livelihood assets than preventive health actions per se. 相似文献
3.
开展农户生计对气候变化的敏感性研究有利于深入认识气候变化与生计的关系,对增强农户的气候变化适应能力和降低生计脆弱性具有重要意义。在梳理不同领域敏感性概念的基础上,阐述了农户生计对气候变化敏感性的科学内涵和研究框架,重点分析了敏感性表征和综合评价指标体系。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性是指气候变化和极端事件对农户生计的影响程度,敏感性表征主要表现在气候变化对自然资源、人类健康、牲畜、资产和收入等方面的影响,不同地区和人群敏感性表征具有差异性。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性随着发展程度提高而下降,生计多样化、基础设施建设等有助于降低气候变化的影响。生计敏感性多为脆弱性研究的一部分,常以可持续生计分析为框架,运用指标评估法进行综合评价。未来研究需要完善敏感性理论框架和研究方法,加强适应的有效性评估,以及开展跨区域或跨时段的生计敏感性对比研究,重点关注生态脆弱和贫困地区。 相似文献
4.
In this paper, we discuss the theoretical relationships among interacting global change risks, valued livelihood goals, and adaptation limits. We build from research on the impacts of multiple and interacting global change risks in lesser-developed countries and seek to understand household adaptation limits in agrarian communities. We ask: What are valued livelihood goals among smallholder farmers in Northwest Costa Rica? How do socio-economic determinants of adaptive capacities determine their ability to meet these goals in the face of the impacts of interacting global change risks? Our data were based on focus groups, interviews, survey responses from 94 smallholder farmers, government statistics, and published literature. We analyzed our data using qualitative content analysis and quantitative logistic regression models. Our analysis showed that farmers perceived rice production as an identity, and that they were being forced to consider limits to their abilities to adapt to maintain that identity. We found that farm size, cattle ownership, years spent farming, and household income variety were determinants of their abilities to remain in rice production while maintaining sufficient levels of livelihood security. We also showed that for those households most vulnerable to water scarcity, their ability to successfully adapt to meet valued livelihood goals is diminished because adaptation to water scarcity increases vulnerability to decreased rice-market access. In this way, they become trapped by the inability to reduce their vulnerability to risks of the interaction between global changes and therefore abandon valued identities and livelihoods. 相似文献
5.
Tabea K. Lissner Anne Holsten Carsten Walther Jürgen P. Kropp 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):687-708
The relevance of climate change is especially apparent through the impacts it has on natural and societal systems. A standardised methodology to assess these impacts in order to produce comparable results is still lacking. We propose a semi-quantitative approach to calculate vulnerability to climate change, with the ability to capture complex mechanisms in human-environmental systems. The key mechanisms are delineated and translated into a deterministic graph (impact chain). A fuzzy logic algorithm is then applied to address uncertainty regarding the definition of clear threshold values. We exemplify our approach by analysing the direct impacts of climate change on human health in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, where the urban heat island potential, the percentage of elderly population as well as the occurrence of heat waves determine impact intensity. Increases in heatwaves and elderly population will aggravate the impacts. While the influence of climatic changes is apparent on larger spatial scales, societal factors determine the small scale distribution of impacts within our regional case study. In addition to identifying climate change impact hot spots, the structured approach of the impact chain and the methodology of aggregation enable to infer from the results back to the main constituents of vulnerability. Thus, it can provide a basis for decision-makers to set priorities for specific adaptation measures within the complex field of climate change impacts. 相似文献
6.
The literature on migration and climate change has become increasingly attuned to the role of climatic factors in already complex migration dynamics, and amid different kinds of mobility. However, to date little evidence has been provided of the relationship between resettlement and climate change, including the degree to which resettlement may shape the vulnerability of households or communities. In this article we ask: is there any evidence that resettlement may be a driver of vulnerability and if so, what factors make resettled households more vulnerable when compared to non-resettled households? These questions are considered with reference to new evidence drawn from a livelihoods-based vulnerability analysis in a drought-prone, poverty county in China’s Shanxi Province, which encompassed households involved in local poverty resettlement programs. Evidence of the characteristics of resettled households compared to non-resettled households shows that resettlement adversely impacts on the household asset base, particularly in terms of financial and natural capital. It may therefore be a driver of vulnerability. At a time when the Chinese government is repackaging resettlement as a climate change adaptation measure, this article provides evidence that resettlement as it is currently practiced has the potential to amplify rather than alleviate household vulnerability to climate change. 相似文献
7.
Climatic change impact studies are among the most complicated environmental assessments scientists have ever faced. The questions that policy makers face are enormous. There is plenty of experience and systematization in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice, especially at project level studies, but it has not been fully utilized in climatic change studies, we argue. Screening and scoping in EIA are typical examples. Beset by uncertainty and interdisciplinary divisions, climatic change impact analyses and policy assessments have been dominated by very detailed studies without the prior cross-sectorial, integrative phases that would aid in focusing the issues. Here, we present a probabilistic, Bayesian impact matrix approach (BeNe-EIA) for expert judgment elicitation, using belief networks from artificial intelligence. One or more experts are used to define a Bayesian prior distribution to each of the selected attributes, and the interattribute links, of the system under study. Posterior probabilities are calculated interactively, indicating consistency of the assessment and allowing iterative analysis of the system. Illustration is given by 2 impact studies of surface waters. In addition to climatic change studies, the approach has been designed to be applicable to conventional EIA. Insufficient attention has thus far been devoted to the probabilistic nature of the assessment and potential inconsistencies in expert judgment. 相似文献
8.
Smallholder farmers continuously confront multiple social and environmental stressors that necessitate changes in livelihood strategies to prevent damages and take advantage of new opportunities, or adaptation. Vulnerability, meaning susceptibility to harm, is attributable to social determinants that limit access to assets, leading to greater exposure and sensitivity to stressors and a limited capacity to adapt. Stressors and adaptation are intertwined because stressors deplete resources available for adaptation, while adaptation may erode resources available to respond to future stressors. We present empirical evidence demonstrating the interactions of multiple stressors and adaptations over time through a case study of indigenous farmers in highland Bolivia. We examine how farmers perceive the stress on their livelihoods, their strategies for adapting to these threats, and the influence of past adaptation and exposure on vulnerability under increasing climatic change. We find that vulnerability changes over time as multiple stressors, such as land scarcity and delayed seasonal rainfall, compound, simultaneously reducing access and demanding the expenditure of household assets for adaptation, including natural capital (water and land), human capital (including labor), and financial, physical, and social capital. To reduce vulnerability over time, constraints on access to key resources must be addressed, allowing households the flexibility to reduce their exposure and improve their adaptive capacity to the multiple stressors they confront. 相似文献
9.
Climate variability has been evident on the Mongolian plateau in recent decades. Livelihood adaptation to climate variability is important for local sustainable development. This paper applies an analytical framework focused on adaptation, institutions, and livelihoods to study climate adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands. A household survey was designed and implemented in each of three broad vegetation types in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The analytical results show that livelihood adaptation strategies of herders vary greatly across the border between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Local institutions played important roles in shaping and facilitating livelihood adaptation strategies of herders. Mobility and communal pooling were the two key categories of adaptation strategies in Mongolia, and they were shaped and facilitated by local communal institutions. Storage, livelihood diversification, and market exchange were the three key categories of adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia, and they were mainly shaped and facilitated by local government and market institutions. Local institutions enhanced but also at times undermined adaptive capacity of herder communities in the two countries, but in different ways. Sedentary grazing has increased livelihood vulnerability of herders to climate variability and change. With grazing sedentarization, the purchase and storage of forage has become an important strategy of herders to adapt to the highly variable climate. The multilevel statistical models of forage purchasing behaviors show that the strategies of livestock management, household financial capital, environmental (i.e., precipitation and vegetation growth) variability, and the status of pasture degradation were the major determinants of this adaptation strategy. 相似文献
10.
A. Henderson-Sellers 《Climatic change》1993,25(3-4):203-224
Climatic impact assessment is generally conducted by reference to numerical models, from which most estimates of climatic change are derived, and to the policy developers, by whom the impact assessments are demanded. The propagation of estimates derived from numerical climate model predictions of greenhouse-induced climate change through impact models into policy advice is a precariously uncertain process which compounds the considerable uncertainties already inherent in policy development. Clear statements of scientific confidence in the greenhouse phenomenon in the mid-1980s prompted demands for policy, and hence for policy advice. In Australia, as in many other countries, public and political awareness of the possibility of greenhouse-induced climatic change increased. These developments led to the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in June 1992; and to the review of the World Climate Programme in April 1993. This special issue ofClimatic Change illustrates some aspects of the difficulties surrounding projections of climatic impacts at a national scale where policy development almost always occurs under conditions of uncertainty. It may be valuable to identify uncertainty issues which could benefit from additional research and also sensitive points in the policy development process at which uncertainty can be used and abused. In this paper, the role of uncertainty in the greenhouse debate is reviewed from the perspective of a natural scientist working in a developed country. The aim is to offer a framework for the rest of this special issue ofClimatic Change. Uncertainty is by no means the only factor which influences views on climate change but increased understanding and more informed debate of all aspects of the uncertainties relating greenhouse-induced climatic change to policy development and implementation would be beneficial. 相似文献
11.
Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution. 相似文献
12.
In economically marginal rural areas, choice in livelihood strategy such as decisions to move location mediates levels of individual and household resilience under conditions of environmental change. It is widely recognised that endowments associated with mobility and the entitlement to mobility are unevenly distributed across populations. This paper integrates these insights and conceptualises location choice as a set of mobility endowments and mobility entitlements. Through focussing on endowments and entitlements, the paper explores how choice affects the ability to be mobile and its role in mediating levels of resilience to livelihood shocks associated with changing environmental conditions. The research design involves measuring the impact of different climatic perturbations in rural locations in Anhui Province, China. Mixed methods of rural appraisal, life history interviews, and a household survey generate objective and perceived elements of individual and household responses to risks. These data are augmented by biophysical observations on the nature of the climatic perturbations. The results show that mobility endowments and mobility entitlements are important in determining the impact of mobility on resilience. The life history interview data highlight significant individual agency within the structures that impact on individual choices. Further, individuals and households who possess the ability to decide and to subsequently enact decisions about mobility, are shown to be more resilient compared to other individuals and households that lack such ability. Moreover, households practicing short-term, circular mobility are more resilient than those households that practice long-term mobility. The study confirms that, in these instances, choice and the ability to enact those choices mediates resilience and highlights the implications of location decisions but also the conditions in which those decisions are made. 相似文献
13.
农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性研究方法初探 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13
刘文泉 《南京气象学院学报》2002,25(2):214-220
在总结脆弱性的定义与介绍相关研究方法的基础上，提出了农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性的初步定义、研究思路、指标体系及计算方法，并讨论了区域农业生产对气候变化影响的适应对策应遵循的有关原则。 相似文献
14.
The past decade has seen a proliferation of community-scale climate change vulnerability assessments globally. Much of this work has employed frameworks informed by scholarship in the vulnerability field, which draws upon interviews with community members to identify and characterize climatic risks and adaptive responses. This scholarship has developed a baseline understanding of vulnerability in specific places and industries at particular times. However, given the dynamic nature of vulnerability new methodologies are needed to generate insights on how climate change is experienced and responded to over time. Longitudinal approaches have long been used in sociology and the health sciences to capture the dynamism of human processes, but their penetration into vulnerability research has been limited. In this article, we describe the application of two longitudinal approaches, cohort and trend studies, in climate change vulnerability assessment by analyzing three case studies from the Arctic where the authors applied these approaches. These case studies highlight how longitudinal approaches can be operationalized to capture the dynamism of vulnerability by identifying climate anomalies and trends, and how adaptations develop over time, including insights on themes such as social learning and adaptive pathways. 相似文献
15.
Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind. 相似文献
16.
Jörg Verstraete 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):591-604
The map overlay problem occurs when mismatched gridded data need to be combined, the problem consists of determining which portion of grid cells in one grid relates to the partly overlapping cells of the target grid. This problem contains inherent uncertainty, but it is an important and necessary first step in analysing and combining data; any improvement in achieving a more accurate relation between the grids will positively impact the subsequent analysis and conclusions. Here, a novel approach using techniques from fuzzy control and artificial intelligence is presented to provide a new methodology. The method uses a fuzzy inference system to decide how data represented in one grid can be distributed over another grid using any additionally available knowledge, thus mimicking the higher reasoning that we as humans would use to consider the problem. 相似文献
17.
The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach.
This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of climate
model physics uncertainty. Perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) climate simulations offer a unique opportunity to explore this
uncertainty. Furthermore, PPEs mean it is now possible to make risk-based impacts estimates because they allow for a range
of estimates to be presented to decision-makers, which spans the range of climate model physics uncertainty inherent from
a given climate model and emissions scenario, due to uncertainty associated with the understanding of physical processes in
the climate model. This is generally not possible with the scenario-based approach. Here, we present the first application
of a PPE to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. By using the estimated impacts of climate change
on heat-related mortality in six cities, we demonstrate the benefits of quantifying climate model physics uncertainty in climate
change impacts assessment over the more common scenario-based approach. We also show that the impacts are more sensitive to
climate model physics uncertainty than they are to emissions scenario uncertainty, and least sensitive to whether the climate
change projections are from a global climate model or a regional climate model. The results demonstrate the importance of
presenting model uncertainties in climate change impacts assessments if the impacts are to be placed within a climate risk
management framework. 相似文献
18.
Samuel Veloz John W. Williams David Lorenz Michael Notaro Steve Vavrus Daniel J. Vimont 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):1037-1058
There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables. 相似文献
19.
Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity. 相似文献
20.
Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Jeffrey T. Bury Bryan G. Mark Jeffrey M. McKenzie Adam French Michel Baraer Kyung In Huh Marco Alfonso Zapata Luyo Ricardo Jes��s G��mez L��pez 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):179-206
Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade???1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km3. Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998?C1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods. 相似文献