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1.
Climate change is putting pressure on water systems, and its effects transcend man-made boundaries, making cooperation across territorial borders essential. The governance of transboundary flood risk management calls for solidarity among riparians, as climate change will make river basins more prone to flooding. ‘Solidarity’ means that individuals act to support members of a particular community to which they belong. Recently, the solidarity principle has become institutionalized due to its formalization in the EU Floods Directive. However, it is not clear what solidarity means in the upstream–downstream practices of transboundary flood risk management. Understanding the meaning of solidarity is important for the development of cross-border climate adaptation governance. This article discusses the conceptualization of the solidarity principle and explores its meaning for international cooperation in the Dutch North Rhine–Westphalian border region. Our critical case study reveals that although all actors understand the importance of solidarity, they interpret it differently, often based on self-interest related to their position in the catchment. The formal inclusion of the solidarity principle in the Floods Directive can best be seen as a step in the continuous development of transboundary flood risk governance, as no striking changes in practice have been identified after its formalization.Policy relevanceAs climate change increasingly puts pressure on river basins and other shared resources, cross-border cooperation and solidarity are seen as increasingly important. This article discusses the meaning of solidarity in practice and reveals how this normative principle may contribute to transboundary climate adaptation governance. Understanding its meaning is important for future cross-border climate adaptation governance. 相似文献
2.
Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation
Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future. 相似文献
3.
Adapting to Climate Impacts on the Supply and Demand for Water 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kenneth D. Frederick 《Climatic change》1997,37(1):141-156
The prospect of climate change adds to future water supply and demand uncertainties and reinforces the need for institutions that facilitate adaptation to changing conditions and promote efficient management of supplies and facilities. High costs and limited opportunities for increasing water supplies with dams, reservoirs, and other infrastructure have curbed the traditional supply-side approach to planning in recent decades. Although new infrastructure may be an appropriate response to climate-induced shifts in hydrologic regimes and water demands, it is difficult to plan for and justify expensive new projects when the magnitude, timing, and even the direction of the changes are unknown. On the other hand, evaluating margins of safety for long-lived structures such as dams and levees should consider the prospect that a greenhouse warming could produce greater hydrologic variability and storm extremes. Integrated river basin management can provide cost-effective increases in reliable supplies in the event of greenhouse warming. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variations and changes in the climate, demand management is critical for balancing future demands with supplies. Although regulatory and voluntary measures belong in a comprehensive demand management strategy, greater reliance on markets and prices to allocate supplies and introduce incentives to conserve will help reduce the costs of adapting to climate change. Federal water planning guidelines allow for consideration of plans incorporating changes in existing statutes, regulations, and other institutional arrangements that might be needed to facilitate water transfers and promote efficient management practices in response to changing supply and demand conditions. 相似文献
4.
This paper evaluates the role of trade as a mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture.
The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the
hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second,
general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under
each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of
agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible
to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases
in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism
for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate. 相似文献
5.
This introduction to a special issue of Climatic Change argues that it is timely and welcome to intensify historical research into climate change and climate as factors of history. This is also already an ongoing trend in many disciplines. The article identifies two main strands in historical work on climate change, both multi-disciplinary: one that looks for it as a driver of historical change in human societies, the other that analyzes the intellectual and scientific roots of the climate system and its changes. In presenting the five papers in this special issue the introduction argues that it is becoming increasingly important to also situate “historicizing climate change” within the history of thought and practice in wider fields, as a matter of intellectual, political, and social history and theory. The five papers all serve as examples of intellectual, political, and social responses to climate-related phenomena and their consequences (ones that have manifested themselves relatively recently and are predominantly attributable to anthropogenic climate change). The historicizing work that these papers perform lies in the analysis of issues that are rising in societies related to climate change in its modern anthropogenic version. The history here is not so much about past climates, although climate change itself is always directly or indirectly present in the story, but rather about history as the social space where encounters take place and where new conditions for humans and societies and their companion species and their life worlds in natures and environments are unfolding and negotiated. With climate change as a growing phenomenon historicizing climate change in this version will become increasingly relevant. 相似文献
6.
Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions. 相似文献
7.
The exponential growth in global populations, economic activity and resource utilization means it is becoming increasingly difficult to satisfy global demand for a number of fundamental resources, while some key ecosystems services are under stress. The likelihood of future resource scarcities have begun to influence the positions taken within international climate change negotiations by fast-growing developing countries. When Brazil, South Africa, India, and China formed the BASIC group it took many by surprise. The coordination needed to align this heterogeneous group of countries cannot simply be understood in terms of a set of shared interests around climate policy. How the BASIC group emerged and the nature of its cooperation on climate change are examined within the broader context in which these increasingly powerful countries came to join forces. Although traditionally aligned with the G77 group of developing countries, recent strategising as a group of emerging economies reflects their realization that there are insufficient global resources available to follow the same development pathway as industrialized countries. Hence, they must seek alternative growth pathways, which requires establishing common ground while also keeping track of each others' positions on important global issues like climate change. 相似文献
8.
Policy efforts to address climate change are increasingly focused on adaptation, understood as adjustments in human systems to moderate the harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities, related to actual or expected climate impacts. We examine individual-level determinants of support for climate adaptation policies, focusing on whether individuals’ exposure to extreme weather events is associated with their support for climate adaptation policies. Using novel public opinion data on support for a range of adaptation policies, coupled with high resolution geographic data on extreme weather events, we find that individuals experiencing recent extreme weather activity are more likely to support climate change adaptation policy in general, but that the relationship is modest, inconsistent across specific adaptation policies, and diminishes with time. The data thus suggest that experiencing more severe weather may not appreciably increase support for climate adaptation policies. 相似文献
9.
During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change in more developed countries tend to focus on mitigation aspects, while in developing countries issues of adaptation and human or social impacts (droughts and diseases) dominate. Based on these findings, this paper discusses the gap between the supply of and need for climate change knowledge, the potential causes and constraints behind the imbalanced distribution of knowledge, and its implications for adaptation and policymaking. 相似文献
10.
Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Shamsuddin Shahid 《Climatic change》2011,105(3-4):433-453
Climate change will affect irrigation water demand of rice via changes in rice physiology and phenology, soil water balances, evapotranspiration and effective precipitation. As agriculture is the main sector of water use in Bangladesh, estimation of the agricultural water demand in the changing environment is essential for long-term water resources development and planning. In the present paper, a study has been carried out to estimate the change of irrigation water demand in dry-season Boro rice field in northwest Bangladesh in the context of global climate change. The study shows that there will be no appreciable changes in total irrigation water requirement due to climate change. However, there will be an increase in daily use of water for irrigation. As groundwater is the main source of irrigation in northwest Bangladesh, higher daily pumping rate in dry season may aggravate the situation of groundwater scarcity in the region. 相似文献
11.
Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Public attitudes about climate change reveal a contradiction. Surveys show most Americans believe climate change poses serious
risks but also that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations can
be deferred until there is greater evidence that climate change is harmful. US policymakers likewise argue it is prudent to
wait and see whether climate change will cause substantial economic harm before undertaking policies to reduce emissions.
Such wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating
substantial delays in the climate’s response to anthropogenic forcing. We report experiments with highly educated adults –
graduate students at MIT – showing widespread misunderstanding of the fundamental stock and flow relationships, including
mass balance principles, that lead to long response delays. GHG emissions are now about twice the rate of GHG removal from
the atmosphere. GHG concentrations will therefore continue to rise even if emissions fall, stabilizing only when emissions
equal removal. In contrast, most subjects believe atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized while emissions into the
atmosphere continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from it. These beliefs – analogous to arguing a bathtub filled faster than
it drains will never overflow – support wait-and-see policies but violate conservation of matter. Low public support for mitigation
policies may arise from misconceptions of climate dynamics rather than high discount rates or uncertainty about the impact
of climate change. Implications for education and communication between scientists and nonscientists (the public and policymakers)
are discussed. 相似文献
12.
Climate change will injure vulnerable communities. In response, coordinated global action has emerged to mitigate climate change, to gauge and map climate-related risks, and to plan for adaptation, which in turn has opened new avenues of funding, power, knowledge and opportunity. The identification of climate risks, analysis and diffusion of ‘impact’ scenarios, incorporation of carbon into economic regimes, and interventions to enhance adaptive capacity will necessarily be experienced differently by different groups. As climate-related crises produce winners and losers, so may discourses and plans made to avert such crises. In the process both the bio-physical events and the social responses shape and reshape social stratification and the distribution of risk. They produce new inequalities and needs for new kinds of responses to guard against injustice. From the emergence of desalination water projects and contested water access, to relocation planning in the Arctic and the South Pacific due to sea-level rise, to increasingly centralized forest management; mitigation and adaptation responses and interventions create their own critical outcomes. This essay and the articles in this special issue examine some new opportunities and risks associated with climate-change discourses and interventions. This special issue shows that vulnerable communities may be at risk of material injury following climate change or climate change intervention; and, be further insulted and injured by lack of representation and recognition, and by misrecognition as simplified, stereotyped victims in local, national and international climate conversations. Using a mixture of theoretical insight and case study research, this collection of articles explores the injuries of climate change as it applies to both direct physical stress scenarios and exposure to adaptation and mitigation policies and planning, as well as the discursive insults of being discounted, stereotyped, or ignored. 相似文献
13.
Megan Gawith Roger Street Richard Westaway Anna Steynor 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(1):113-121
The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver. 相似文献
14.
J Alcamo GJJ Kreileman JC Bollen GJ van den Born R Gerlagh MS Krol AMC Toet HJM de Vries 《Global Environmental Change》1996,6(4):261-303
This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas. 相似文献
15.
K. Jenni D. Graves J. Hardiman J. Hatten M. Mastin M. Mesa J. Montag T. Nieman F. Voss A. Maule 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):371-384
Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations. 相似文献
16.
Edith Brown Weiss 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):327-335
The change in the Earth's climate caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may be the most important environmental legacy that we leave to our descendants.Global change raises difficult issues of equity between our generation and future generations, and between different communities within future generations. International law is accustomed to addressing the effects of intentional environmental change on people who are already alive. It needs to be augmented by principles of intergenerational equity. We have certain obligations to future generations to pass on a planet in no worse condition than we received it and to give them equitable access to its resources.This requires a global strategy for climate change which will prevent excessively rapid climate change, prevent or mitigate the damage caused by climate change, and help countries to adapt to climate change. We need to avoid imposing major costs on future generations for our own benefit.To implement this strategy will require enforceable norms of behavior, which should be embodied in a Declaration of Planetary Rights and Obligations to Future Generations, and implemented in appropriate treaties and national and local legislation. Agreements should be drafted in such a way that they can incorporate increases in scientific understanding, for example by the creation of scientific advisory committees. 相似文献
17.
The natural Australian landscape sustains a mosaic of wetlands that range from permanently wet to temporary. This diversity of wetland types and habitats provides for diverse biotic communities, many of which are specific to individual wetlands. This paper explores the prospects for southern Australian wetlands under modified water regime and salinity induced by climatic changes. Extended droughts predicted as a consequence of climate change (lower rainfall and higher temperatures) combined with human-induced changes to the natural hydrological regime will lead to reductions in the amount of water available for environmental and anthropogenic uses. Reduced runoff and river flows may cause the loss of some temporary wetland types that will no longer hold water long enough to support hydric communities. Species distributions will shift and species extinctions may result particularly across fragmented or vulnerable landscapes. Accumulation of salts in wetlands shift species-rich freshwater communities to species-poor salt tolerant communities. Wetlands will differ in ecological response to these changes as the salinity and drying history of each wetland will determine its resilience: in the short term some freshwater communities may recover but they are unlikely to survive and reproduce under long term increased salinity and altered hydrology. In the long term such salinized wetlands with altered hydrology will need to be colonized by salt tolerant species adapted for the new hydrological conditions if they are to persist as functional wetlands. As the landscape becomes more developed, to accommodate the need for water in a warmer drying climate, increasing human intervention will result in a net loss of wetlands and wetland diversity. 相似文献
18.
气候变化条件下水资源短缺的状况及适应性措施：海河流域的模拟分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
运用中国科学院农业政策研究中心开发的中国水资源模型,模拟分析了气候变化条件下海河流域的水资源短缺状况及相应的适应性措施的有效性。结果表明：随着社会经济的发展,到2030年海河流域的水资源短缺比例将提高25%,气候变化将使水资源短缺比例进一步提高2%～4%。无论是供给管理还是需求管理的适应性措施,在缓解水资源短缺方面都具有一定的有效性。但是,多标准的评估结果表明,所分析的几种需求管理的适应性措施比供给管理的适应性措施的可行性更高。在需求管理中,采用既提高灌溉水价又提高工业水价的混合水价政策可能是最优的策略选择,采用农业节水技术为次优策略选择。 相似文献
19.
运用中国科学院农业政策研究中心开发的中国水资源模型,模拟分析了气候变化条件下海河流域的水资源短缺状况及相应的适应性措施的有效性。结果表明：随着社会经济的发展,到2030年海河流域的水资源短缺比例将提高25%,气候变化将使水资源短缺比例进一步提高2%～4%。无论是供给管理还是需求管理的适应性措施,在缓解水资源短缺方面都具有一定的有效性。但是,多标准的评估结果表明,所分析的几种需求管理的适应性措施比供给管理的适应性措施的可行性更高。在需求管理中,采用既提高灌溉水价又提高工业水价的混合水价政策可能是最优的策略选择,采用农业节水技术为次优策略选择。 相似文献
20.
William B. Meyer 《Climatic change》2002,55(3):395-407
Indoor climates and climate change are an integral – but to date poorly integrated – element of climate and climate-change research more generally. They have been examined chiefly through the study of human thermal comfort, about which two conflicting schools of thought have emerged. One sees thermal comfort as governed by a common and fixed human preference and confined to a narrow range of conditions. The other sees it as strongly influenced by habit and expectations, which can differ greatly from one person, place, or period to another. This paper examines, in the light of these theories and what they imply, an episode of major and rapid indoor climate change – a sharp rise in winter temperatures thatoccurred in the northern United States in the first half of the nineteenth century. It finds support for both points of view and suggests that each is valid under particular circumstances. The results, if borne out by more research, will help to inform projections of future demand for heating and cooling and for outdoor climatic amenities, both significant elements of the human dimensions of global climatic change. 相似文献