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1.
甘东南及其邻区地震活动性短期预报方案探索   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
杨国栋  代炜  严武建 《高原地震》2007,19(3):10-12,28
根据甘东南及其邻区的地质构造特征、历史中强地震活动特征,尤其是中强地震前前兆小震活动特点,提出了适合于甘东南及其邻区的地震短期预报方案。这对开展该地区的预报工作,特别是对开展该地区的短期震情跟踪工作有着特别重要的意义。  相似文献   

2.
甘东南及其邻区的地震活动性与近期震情研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
通过对甘东南及其邻区历史中强地震活动特征和1980年以来的地震活动性异常的分析,认为甘东南地区2004年3月4日玛曲4.8级、8月26日礼县4.5级、9月7日岷县5.0级地震和2003年11月13日的岷县5.2级地震,可能都属于新一轮地震活动的组成部分,是未来发生强震的前奏,表明甘东南及其邻区近年来正在孕育一个6级左右乃至更大的地震。  相似文献   

3.
历史上无破坏记载但影响面积较大的地震史料是历史地震学中的宝贵资料。本文通过对甘宁陕地区明代无破坏记载的历史中强震的史料考证、实地调查及对有感范围的统计计算,采用综合分析及类比的原则和方法,在前人的研究成果基础上又新确定补充了10次中强地震,并给出其基本参数。为研究区内完整的地震活动规律提供了新的科学依据。  相似文献   

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通过对发生在甘东南地区三次中强地震前4个前兆学科以及测震学指标的研究,发现各学科前兆异常在时空上表现出很好的协调性特征.主要表现在:各学科异常持续时间均较短;各异常以中短期为主,有一定中期异常,临震异常不明显;从震前1年到短临阶段异常显示出向震中迁移的迹象;各异常点集中分布在低b值异常区.讨论了前兆协调性与地下流体和深部热物质的运移的关系.  相似文献   

5.
甘、宁、青地区地震孕育的力源环境   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
从3个方面讨论了甘、宁、青三省区地震孕育的力源环境。①从强震震源机制、地震形变带、断层滑移特征和现代形变、地应力实地测量等几个不同侧面,讨论了区域构适应力场的分布规律。指出,甘、宁、青现今区域构造应力场以水平为主,主压应力方向从地区的西部到东南部,由NNE逐渐转为近EW向,且在地壳的深部、浅部和地表,方向有较好的一致性。它是印度板块向青藏块体碰撞、挤压,使青藏块体向北东方向推济,同时向东蠕散的结果。②通过讨论发展断层的错动形式以及部分前兆资料所反映的应力特征,揭示了地震孕育过程中震源及周围地区处于一种更高的应力状态。这是该地区地震前兆具有普遍性的根本原因。③讨论了甘、宁、青现今地震的孕育方式。指出,6级以上地震基本上以先存断层重新活动或相互沟通为主要活动形式。  相似文献   

6.
张博  张辉  冯建刚  王朋涛 《中国地震》2018,34(4):765-771
结合传统地震学方法与数字地震学方法,回顾总结了日常分析预报中针对九寨沟7.0级地震开展的相关工作,梳理总结了地震前提出的甘东南地震异常信息,进一步讨论了九寨沟地震前中期、短期及临震异常特征。通过分析九寨沟7.0级地震之前区域范围内不同震级活动图像,发现甘青川交界地区5级空区在震前向震中一侧收缩、4级地震超长平静458天、3级空区在震前4天被打破的现象,同时发现,震中附近区域震源机制一致性较高,反映了震源区的高应力水平。  相似文献   

7.
通过分析甘东南地区的前兆资料,认为2013年7月22日岷县漳县MS6.6地震前震中距300 km内甘肃部分前兆资料有明显的中短期异常及典型的短临异常。用从属函数法定量提取了水氡和水位资料中短期异常,分析了异常特征,并对岷县漳县MS6.6地震前水氡、水位、水温、地电阻率及形变资料的异常特征进行了重点分析,发现地震前甘东南地区的几项地形变资料出现了明显的中短期异常,部分水氡、水位、水温和地电阻率资料存在明显的短临异常。  相似文献   

8.
根据中国大陆区域地震台网的小震目录,绘制震中分布图。可以发现,汶川8.0级地震后,甘东南一甘青川交界即N30°~37°,E98°~106°范围内形成了几个小震丛集的地区,它们分别是:甘肃碌曲、甘肃礼县、迭部一白龙江断裂带、青海久治、四川马尔康和黑水地区。从历史大震分布来看,有地震记录以来,1654年在甘肃礼县附近发生过甘肃天水南8级大震,  相似文献   

9.
张雅玲 《地震》1994,(5):59-64
本文从背景性地震活动、地震活动的时空分布以及前兆震群活动等基本特征出发,分析了共和地震前地震活动的异常特征。结果说明,共和地震是发生在青藏高原北部地震区地震活动增强的背景中。震前20年存在着中强地震空区。震前2-3年几乎同步出现了多种测震学异常。但无短临信息的前震活动。  相似文献   

10.
运用随机函数理论将甘东南至陕甘宁交界地区的地震活动能量场看作时间和空间的随机函数,用自然正交函数展开方法,系统研究主要典型能量场的时间权重系数变化曲线以及典型能量场的空间等值线图。结果发现,目标曲线较大幅度的升、降变化预示了可能发生中强地震的时间段,而等值线图的高值变化对应了可能发生中强地震的区域。  相似文献   

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《国际泥沙研究》2014,(4):F0003-F0003
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14.
《国际泥沙研究》2014,(2):F0003-F0003
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15.
《国际泥沙研究》2014,(3):F0003-F0003
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A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.  相似文献   

18.
The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.  相似文献   

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