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1.
本文研究了1966—1976年间华北断块区地震幕活动与大华北地区1960年2月—1977年1月气温异常时空演化之间的关系。主要结论如下:1.华北地区1960年2月(增温)和1971年1月(降温)以及1975年9月和1976年2月(增温)的气温增温—降温过程与地震幕活动开始和结束时间相关联;2.气温异常时间与范围之间以及它们与地震能量之间有较高的可信度;3.1960年2月—1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震时的16.5年可按0.618~N划分18个时段,地震幕中单个地震及天气增温的时间恰好位于某几个时段中。 相似文献
2.
本文利用1951-1980年期间中国气温资料研究了1966-1976年间华北断块区地震幕活动与1960年2月-1977年1月气温异常之间的关系。主要结论如下:1.华北断块及其邻近地区1960年2月天气异常增温到1977年1月天气异常降温过程与地震幕活动开始和结束的时间相关联;1967年5月、1973年1月、1975年9月和1976年2月的气温异常与该地震幕中1969年7月18日渤海7.4、1975年2月4日海城7.3和1976年7月28日唐山7.8级三次地震密切相关。2.气温异常时问和异常范围之间以及它们与地震能量之间都有较高的可信度,表明气温异常与地震幕之间有成因上的联系。3.从1960年2月气温异常开始到1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震发生时的16.5年可按0.618~N划分为18个时段,4次7.0级以上地震和5次气温异常发生的时间恰好位于某几个时间段上。 相似文献
3.
To actually reflect the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of intra continental strong earthquakes of North China in seismic
hazard analysis, several seismological and geological characteristics have been selected and quantized to describe the seismicity
features in time and space of every magnitude interval with the thought of dividing the interesting magnitude range into several
intervals and using of spatial probability distribution function. A component analysis method with orthogonal transformation
is introduced to avoid the repeated use of the same element and the subjective effects in determining the annual earthquake
occurrence rates of earthquake. By passing synthetic fuzzy judgement on the nonintercorrelated new characteristics, the annual
occurrence rates of every magnitude interval of each potential source area are obtained associated with the adjustments of
earthquake reducing process after the occurrence ofM>7 quake. An intensity map of the Beijing-Tianjin-Zhangjiakou area is calculated as an example which shows a close coincidence
with the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of North China.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 496–504, 1991. 相似文献
4.
通过对1966年以来的华北地区地震活动期强震前的前性兆系列研究,得出华北地区在现今活动期内有统一的地壳应力场作用的结论。 相似文献
5.
In this paper, first discussing briefly the instantaneous spectrum theory. Then, the instantnaeous spectra and Fourier spectra
of three seismic sequences are calculated, and comparing them to explain the superior characteristics of instantaneous spectrum.
Finally, the earthquake tendency of North China is estimated by using the instantaneous spectrum theory. The results show
that not only the occurrence time of the coming large earthquake, but also its magnitude instantaneous can be estimated by
using instantaneous spectrum of the seismic sequence.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa seismologica Sinica,15, 68–75, 1993. 相似文献
6.
结合华北地区MS≥6级地震活动的韵律特征进行了地震幕的划分,并统计分析了华北地区（33°~43°N,108°~125°E）1980年以来出现ML4级地震平静与中等地震的对应情况,主要结论如下：（1）华北地区目前处于第五地震活跃幕的相对平静时段,目前6级地震已经平静16年多,随时可能进入新的地震活动幕;（2）ML4级地震平静对中强地震的前兆意义与当前地震活动所处地震幕的不同阶段有关,在1980—2000年ML4级地震平静与M5级及以上地震有较好的对应关系;2000年之后ML4级地震平静与ML5.2级及以上地震对应关系较好;（3）2013年11月23日山东莱州ML5.0级地震打破华北地区ML4级地震平静189天,虽然在预报期限内没有ML5.2级以上地震,但是2014年4月1日发生黄海ML5.1级地震,鉴于目前震群活跃,仍要警惕华北地区出现更大地震的危险。 相似文献
7.
This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake
sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take
the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM
max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different
regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis
the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South
China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several
years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient
in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993. 相似文献
8.
华北地区是我国的政治、 经济和文化中心, 也是我国地震多发地区之一。 华北地区历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续, 是研究我国强震活动的理想试验场。 选取第三、 第四活动期M≥6.0地震目录作为基础资料研究华北地区强震活动特点。 首先探讨华北地区强震活动与活动地块、 边界带的关系, 然后从时间和空间上分析华北地区强震活动的轮回性阶段及其期幕活动特点, 最后计算未来5年华北地区发生下一次M≥6.0地震的累积概率和条件概率。 研究结果表明: ① 华北地区M≥6.0地震活动主要集中在活动地块的边界带, M≥7.0地震则全部发生在活动地块的边界带上, 同时华北地区地震应变释放速率与边界带的构造活动速率呈线性相关; ② 第四活动期各活跃幕的能量释放均低于第三活动期, 因此华北地区未来仍可能发生M≥6.0地震; ③ 第三、 第四活动期的主体活动区存在显著差异, 且第四活动期的强震活动较第三活动期向东迁移; ④ 在2020年年初发生第四活动期闭幕M≥6.0地震的累积概率为80%左右, 而在2022年年底前发生M≥6.0地震的条件概率为50%。 本研究可为华北地区地震大形势分析和中长期地震危险性预测提供重要参考。 相似文献
9.
By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years
in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several
strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop;
then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising
process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more
than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes
of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies
of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it
is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity.
Foundation item: Key project of Ministry of Science and Technology during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2001BA601B 01-01-01). 相似文献
10.
华北强烈地震深部构造环境的探测与研究 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
20世纪六七十年代以来, 华北地区发生了一系列强烈地震． 强烈地震的孕育、 发生和发展与深部构造密切相关． 近50年来, 我国地震科学领域在强烈地震的地震构造和深部环境方面开展了大量的研究． 深部地球物理探测和地震层析成像结果揭示了华北地区地壳结构的基本特征, 并在强烈地震发生的深部构造环境等问题上取得了重要进展． 本文在回顾华北地区地壳上地幔结构探测的基础上, 对1966年邢台MS7.2, 1976年唐山MS7.8, 1975年海城MS7.3和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的地震构造和深部构造环境进行评述． 深部地球物理数据的综合分析表明, 震源下方的低速异常带, 高角度超壳深断裂, 地壳深浅构造的不一致, 偏低的上地幔顶部速度和局部隆起的莫霍界面, 是华北伸展构造区深部孕震环境的共同特征． 相似文献
11.
Yuru Zhuo 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(1):33-43
Using the WKBJ approximation method we calculate the synthetic teleseismograms of P and PP waves to match the observed ones
of six large Chinese earthquakes with known focal mechanisms: Tibet earthquake of July 14, 1973; Haicheng earthquake of February
4, 1975; Songpan earthquakes of August 16, 1976, August 21, 1976 and August 23, 1976 and Nignhe earthquake of November 15,
1976. The focal mechanism of the Tibet earthquake is discussed to examine the technique used in the calculation.
We note that the amplitude ratios of PP and P waves (A
PP/A
P) have different characteristics for dip—slip events and strike—slip events within certain epicentral distances. We calculate
the synthetic teleseismograms of P and PP waves for the strike—slip and dip—slip events with fault angles of 330°, 240° and
0°, focal depths of 8 km, 17 km and 24 km, at the assumed station with an azimuth of 310° and epicentral distances from 40°;
to 80°. The diagrams of maximum amplitude ratios of PP and P waves (A
PP/A
P) versus distances are given. The possibility to use the (A
PP/A
P) values to give an approximate estimation for the focal mechanism type is discussed. This work may be useful for determining
the focal mechanism type for those earthquakes which have only few records such as the Chinese earthquakes from the 1930s
to 1960s.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 150–160, 1991. 相似文献
12.
According to geological tectonics and seismic activites this paper devided North China (30°–45°N, 105°–130°E) into four areas.
We analyzed the North China earthquake catalogue from 1970 to 1986 (from 1965 to 1986 for Huabei, the North China, plain region)
and identified forty-two bursts of aftershock. Seven of them occurred in aftershock regions of strong earthquakes and seventeen
of them in the seismic swarm regions. The relation between strong earthquakes with the remaining eighteen bursts of aftershocks
has been studied and tested statistically in this paper. The result of statistical testing show that the random probabilityp of coincidence of bursts of aftershock with subsequent strong earthquakes is less than six percent. By Xu’sR scoring method the efficacy of predicting strong earthquake from bursts of aftershock is estimated greater than 39 percent.
Following the method proposed in the paper we analyzed the earthquake catalogue of China from 1987 to June, 1988. The results
show that there was only one burst of aftershock occurred on Jan. 6, 1988 withM=3.6 in Xiuyan of Northeast China. It implicates that a potential earthquake withM
S⩽5 might occur in one year afterwards in the region of Northeast China. Actually on Feb. 25, 1988 an earthquake withM
S=5.3 occurred in Zhangwu of Northeast China. Another example is Datong-Yanggao shock on October 18, 1989 which is a burst
of aftershock. Three hours after an expected shock withM =6.1 took place in the same area. Two examples above have been tested in practical prediction and this shows that bursts
of aftershocks are significant in predicting strong earthquakes.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 273–280, 1991.
Part of earthquake catalogue is from Jinbiao Chen, Peiyan Chen and Quanlin Li. 相似文献
13.
着重分析研究华北地区第四活动期以来M_S≥5.0地震时空分布特征。结果表明,该地区第四活动期从1820年至1976年期间,地震活动出现了前后两次基本相似的强弱起伏活动过程,分别历时69年和66年。前后两个活动过程不但时序结构类似,进程一致,且空间演化格局相似,都是先从华北地区的中南部开始,再迁移至东北部辽东半岛及附近海域,最终在华北地区北部集中出现一系列强震活动,而完成整个活动过程。进一步分析表明,前后两活动过程的第一阶段6级以上强震,在空间分布上除南黄海地区外,基本上互不重复。这一现象的发现,有助于该地区今后地震活动主体区域的分析判断。 相似文献
14.
华北地震时空多重分形的时间演化特征研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
应用分形理论,采用扩充数盒子方法EBA对华北地区1960~ 1982年发生的地震时间分布进行了多重分形谱计算。结果表明,在这期间该地区的几次较强地震在分形谱上都有明显的反映,强震年份的分形谱发生较大幅度变化,正q区Dq 值下降,负q区Dq 值上升,具有一定的预报意义。文中进而计算了几次较强地震的地震序列(1966年邢台、1969年渤海、1975年海城、1976年唐山)的空间多重分形谱,研究其随时间的演化现象,表明强震前后分形谱变动幅度较大,震群型地震序列和主震型地震序列的分形谱呈现出不同的变化趋势。 相似文献
15.
华北地区地震活动与地壳热结构关系研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文应用双差定位法对2009—2015年华北地区发生的地震进行了重新定位, 共得到6225次地震的精确定位结果. 结果显示, 重定位后的小震更加集中分布于断裂附近, 震源深度多为5—15 km. 利用基于三维分形磁化模型的中心点法获得了华北地区的居里点深度并计算了磁性层的平均地温梯度, 进而利用随温度变化的热导率一维稳态热传导方程获得了华北地区的地壳温度结构． 结果显示: ① 除张渤地震带中东部地区以外, 大多数地震均发生在地温梯度较小的地方; ② 1966年邢台MS7.2地震和1976年唐山MS7.8地震均发生在地温梯度较小的地方, 二者发生的温度约为200℃—300℃; ③ 大多数M≥2.0地震发生的温度为100℃—500℃, M≥4.0地震发生的温度多为200℃—400℃． 这些温度与实验室地壳岩石脆-塑性变形过渡区的温度测量值相当, 表明华北地区的地震多发生在地壳脆-塑性变形过渡区． 相似文献
16.
本文资料取自华北地震区1446—1969年的地震记录.选出活动期主峰与拐点地震36次, 每两次之间做埃尔米特插值, 这样就构造出一条等间隔采样的曲线, 它反映了五百年来华北地震活动强弱的变化.设此曲线由两部分组成, 确定性部分和随机部分.给出轮回模式与平稳随机过程的自回归模式, 分别进行外推预测.文中还做了后验综合分析, 将近期资料删截15次分别进行计算、外推、预测.把每个时间段被预测危险的次数相加得到预报曲线.根据这些后验的结果, 于1974年4月估计, 1975至1977年华北将出现地震活动高潮.在此间发生了1975年2月5日的海城地震与1976年7月28日的唐山地震.该曲线对今后华北地震仍具有预报意义.以海城地震开始的华北地震高潮还要延续一段时间, 至1980年后才转入低潮, 且到2001年前后将开始重新活动. 相似文献
17.
Genmo Zhao 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(4):691-697
The ancient tectonic stress field in North China during 16–17th centuries were recovered by studying seismogenic faults of
four great earthquakes. Three of them are dip slip events, the direction of the maximum principal stress is vertical, and
that of the minimum principal stress is in the NW—SE direction and nearly horizontal tensile stress. Another earthquake is
a complicated one which includes thrust and dip-slip activities. The above-stated character is quite different from that of
present stress field, it is inferred that the stress field has significantly changed since 16th century, the main stress axis
revolved an angle of 90 degrees nearly. The mantle upheaval in the faulted basins in North China during 16–17th centuries
may cause the tensile stress field and a series of great earthquakes.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 144–148, 1992. 相似文献
18.
19.
Based on the results from seismogeological study,aeromagnetic inversion and deepseismic sounding(DSS),it is found that the M≥8.0 earthquakes in North China have three common deep structural characteristics,i.e,they all took place above the ultra-crustal deep faults or on the edges of the tectonic blocks with higher intensity,and there are low-velocity,low-density and high-conductive layers deep in the epicentral regions.The origins of the earth-quakes are also discussed and the two possibilities of seismogenesis are proposed,i.e,tectonic movement and intracrustal explosion. 相似文献
20.
Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents 
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下载免费PDF全文 Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments. 相似文献