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1.
The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.  相似文献   

2.
The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.  相似文献   

3.
Strong ground motions caused by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.9 and hypocentral distances of up to 300 km were recorded by local broadband stations and three-component accelerograms within Georgia’s enhanced digital seismic network. Such data mixing is particularly effective in areas where strong ground motion data are lacking. The data were used to produce models based on ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), one benefit of which is that they take into consideration information from waveforms across a wide range of frequencies. In this study, models were developed to predict ground motions for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra for periods between 0.01 and 10 s. Short-period ground motions decayed faster than long-period motions, though decay was still in the order of approximately 1/r. Faulting mechanisms and local soil conditions greatly influence GMPEs. The spectral acceleration (SA) of thrust faults was higher than that for either strike-slip or normal faults but the influence of strike-slip faulting on SA was slightly greater than that for normal faults. Soft soils also caused significantly more amplification than rocky sites.  相似文献   

4.
A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries. Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists. A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra.  相似文献   

5.
The first ground-motion prediction equation derived from European and Middle Eastern strong-motion data was published more than 30 years ago; since then strong-motion networks and the resulting databank of accelerograms in the region have expanded significantly. Many equations for the prediction of peak ground-motion parameters and response spectral ordinates have been published in recent years both for the entire Euro-Mediterranean and Middle Eastern region as well as for individual countries within this region. Comparisons among empirical ground-motion models for these parameters, developed using large regional datasets, do not support the hypothesis of there being significant differences in earthquake ground-motions from one area of crustal seismicity to another. However, there are certain regions within Europe—affected by different tectonic regimes—for which the existing pan-European equations may not be applicable. The most recent European equations make it possible to now implement overdue modifications to the presentation of seismic design actions in Eurocode 8 that allow an improved approximation to the target uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). Using these recent equations, this study outlines a new approach via which an approximation to the UHS may be constructed using hazard maps calculated for peak ground velocity and the corner period T D in addition to the maps for peak ground acceleration that underpin the current stipulations of Eurocode 8.  相似文献   

6.
A vital component of any seismic hazard analysis is a model for predicting the expected distribution of ground motions at a site due to possible earthquake scenarios. The limited nature of the datasets from which such models are derived gives rise to epistemic uncertainty in both the median estimates and the associated aleatory variability of these predictive equations. In order to capture this epistemic uncertainty in a seismic hazard analysis, more than one ground-motion prediction equation must be used, and the tool that is currently employed to combine multiple models is the logic tree. Candidate ground-motion models for a logic tree should be selected in order to obtain the smallest possible suite of equations that can capture the expected range of possible ground motions in the target region. This is achieved by starting from a comprehensive list of available equations and then applying criteria for rejecting those considered inappropriate in terms of quality, derivation or applicability. Once the final list of candidate models is established, adjustments must be applied to achieve parameter compatibility. Additional adjustments can also be applied to remove the effect of systematic differences between host and target regions. These procedures are applied to select and adjust ground-motion models for the analysis of seismic hazard at rock sites in West Central Europe. This region is chosen for illustrative purposes particularly because it highlights the issue of using ground-motion models derived from small magnitude earthquakes in the analysis of hazard due to much larger events. Some of the pitfalls of extrapolating ground-motion models from small to large magnitude earthquakes in low seismicity regions are discussed for the selected target region.  相似文献   

7.
Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, empirical ground-motion models for the vertical and average horizontal components of peak ground-motion and acceleration response spectra from shallow crustal earthquakes are derived using near-source database. These attenuation relationships were derived using a worldwide dataset consisted of corrected and processed accelerograms of 678 strong-motion records recorded with 60 km of the rupture plane of earthquakes between Mw 5.2 and 7.9. Ground motion models are functions of earthquake mechanism, distance from source to site, local average shear wave velocity, nonlinear soil response, sediment depth, depth-to-top of the rupture, hanging wall effects and faulting mechanism.  相似文献   

9.
Ground-motion predictions in Shillong region, northeast India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We deliver ground-motion prediction equations for Shillong region, northeast India, based on a database generated by finite-fault stochastic simulations. An examination of the regional seismic source characteristics is carried out beforehand. Micro/minor earthquakes (M W?<?5.0) nucleating at hypocentral depth <21?km in the region recorded at broadband seismic stations are observed to have Brune stress-drop ranging between 2.8 and 99.9?bars. Likewise, macroseismic intensity data for the 1897 Shillong Earthquake that nucleated at a hypocentral depth of ~35?km places the associated stress-drop at 100?200?bars. The apparent variation of the stress-drop parameter with depth is considered with two source zones namely lower-crust and upper-crust. Equations for the lower-crust predict higher ground-motion levels and exhibit affinity to those developed for stable continental region of Eastern North America. The ground-motion levels predicted by the equations for the upper-crust are relatively lower but are still higher compared with those predicted for tectonically active regions, viz., the Himalayas and Western North America.  相似文献   

10.
This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.  相似文献   

11.
The use of shake maps in terms of macroseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems as well as intensity based seismic hazard assessments provides a valuable supplement to typical studies based on recorded ground motion parameters. A requirement for such applications is ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity, which have the advantages of good data availability and the direct relation of intensity to earthquake damage. In the current study, we derive intensity prediction equations for the Vrancea region in Romania, which is characterized by the frequent occurrence of large intermediate depth earthquakes giving rise to a peculiar anisotropic ground shaking distribution. The GMPE have a physical basis and take the anisotropic intensity distribution into account through an empirical regional correction function. Furthermore, the relations are easy to implement for the user. Relations are derived in terms of epicentral, rupture and Joyner–Boore distance and the obtained relations all provide a new intensity estimate with an uncertainty of ca. 0.6 intensity units.  相似文献   

12.
Estimates of the earthquake ground motion intensity over a geographical area have multiple uses, that is, emergency management, civil protection and seismic fragility assessment. In particular, with reference to fragility assessment, it is of interest to have estimates of the values of different ground-motion intensity measures in order to correlate them with the observed damage. To this purpose, the present paper uses a procedure recently proposed in the literature to estimate the ground-motion intensity for the 2012 Emilia mainshocks, considering different ground motion intensity measures and directionality effects. Ground motion prediction equations based on different site effect models, and spatial correlation models are calibrated for the Emilia earthquakes. The paper discusses the accuracy of the shakemaps obtained using the different soil effect models considered and presents the obtained shakemaps as supplementary material. The procedure presented in the paper is aimed at providing ground motion intensity values for seismic fragility assessment and is not intended as a tool to estimate shakemaps for rapid emergency assessment.  相似文献   

13.
We present the frequency-dependent attenuation model for Fourier amplitude spectra of strong earthquake ground motion in Serbia from intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea source zone in Romania. The development of this type of scaling is the essential first step toward developing the corresponding attenuation and scaling equations for pseudo relative velocity spectra (PSV), which are necessary for seismic macro- and microzoning in the territory of Serbia. Such scaling is necessary because the Vrancea source zone produces large earthquakes with shaking that attenuates differently from the local earthquakes in Serbia. Development of such a scaling model is associated with several difficulties, the principal one being the lack of recorded strong motion accelerograms at epicentral distances exceeding 300 km. To reduce uncertainties with such scaling, we require our preliminary scaling equations to be consistent with independent estimates of seismic moment, stress drop, and radiated wave energy. In the future, when the recorded strong motion data from Vrancea earthquakes increases several-fold of what it is today, it will become possible to perform this analysis again, thus leading to more reliable and permanent scaling estimates.  相似文献   

14.
— The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method which combines the modal summation technique, valid for laterally homogeneous anelastic media, with finite-differences technique, and optimizes the advantages of both methods. For recent earthquakes, it is possible to validate the modeling by comparing the synthetic seismograms with the records. We consider for our computations the frequency range from 0.05 to 1.0 Hz and control the synthetic signals against the accelerograms of the Magurele station, low-pass filtered with a cut-off frequency of 1.0 Hz of the 3 last major strong (Mw > 6) Vrancea earthquakes. Using the hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation, scaled for the source dimensions and relatively simple regional (bedrock) and local structure models, we succeeded in reproducing the recorded ground motion in Bucharest at a satisfactory level for seismic engineering. Extending the modeling to the entire territory of the Bucharest area, we construct a new seismic microzonation map, where five different zones are identified by their characteristic response spectra.  相似文献   

15.
Peak ground motion predictions in India: an appraisal for rock sites   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Proper selection and ranking of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is critical for successful logic-tree implementation in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The present study explores this issue in predicting peak ground accelerations at the rock sites in India. Macroseismic intensity data complemented with limited strong ground-motion recordings are used for the purpose. The findings corroborate the possible conformity between the GMPEs developed for tectonically active shallow crust across the globe. On the other hand, the relevant GMPEs in the intraplate regions cluster into two different groups with the equations of lower ranks catering to higher ground motions. The earthquakes in the subduction zones have significant regional implications. However, affinity in the ground-motion attenuations between the major interface events (M W > 7.4) in Andaman-Nicobar, Japan and Cascadia, respectively, is noted. This can be also observed for the intraslab events in the Hindukush and Taiwan respectively. Overall, we do not observe any significant advantage with the equations developed using the regional data. These findings are expected to be useful in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis across the study region.  相似文献   

16.
Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km.  相似文献   

17.
Exceptional ground motions have been observed in the near-source region in relatively small and moderate earthquakes such as the Lorca earthquake of 2011. In the Mw 5.2 mainshock, horizontal peak ground acceleration reached 0.37 g at the LOR accelerograph station in the north-central part of the town. Maximum ground acceleration and velocity in this station was strongly polarised in the fault’s strike-normal axis, a feature interpreted as a near-field effect of rupture directivity. This quake hit the Lorca area causing serious structural damage, unevenly distributed in the urban area as result of a heterogeneous spread of building vulnerability and seismic shaking severity. This study investigates the characteristics of the earthquake shaking at the LOR station (on rock) and other 11 zones of Lorca with different site conditions. We have computed the 1-D transfer functions of the shallow structure at these 11 points with available local Vs models obtained with SPAC technique. These transfer functions were used to convolve the LOR accelerogram and simulate the ground motion which occurred at each site. A set of key engineering ground-motion parameters obtained here, indicate different shake levels at each site and all these values are clearly above the LOR station ones. These parameter values are in the range of typical expected values for European earthquakes with local intensity VIII. Their large values, especially those of acceleration response spectra and energy input spectra, more clearly for periods between 0.4 and 0.6 s, point out that the seismic demand has been quite high and help to explain the heavy damage spread on the town’s buildings.  相似文献   

18.
Considering multiple ground motion intensity measures is important in seismic hazard analysis and ground motion selection process. Using the NGA strong motion database and recently developed ground-motion prediction models, empirical correlations are developed between cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and spectral accelerations (Sa) at periods from 0.01 to 10 s. The CAV–Sa correlations at long periods are significantly influenced by rupture distance due to modification of the frequency content and duration of the acceleration time history through travel path. Similarly, the presence of strong velocity pulses in near-source ground motions also affects the correlations at moderate to long periods. On the other hand, the correlations are not particularly sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, orientation of the ground-motion recordings, selection of ground-motion prediction models and local site conditions. Piecewise linear fitting equations are provided to quantify the correlations for various cases. The application of the CAV–Sa correlations in ground motion selection process is also discussed.  相似文献   

19.
Ground-motion models (GMMs) are widely used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the probability distributions of earthquake-induced ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) at a site, given an earthquake of a certain magnitude occurring at a nearby location. Accounting for spatial and cross-IM correlations in earthquake-induced ground motions has important implications on probabilistic seismic hazard and loss estimates. This study first develops a new Italian GMM with spatial correlation for 31 amplitude-related IMs, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped elastic pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSAs) at 29 periods ranging from 0.01 to 4 seconds. The model estimation is performed through a recently developed one-stage nonlinear regression algorithm proposed by the authors, known as the Scoring estimation approach. In fact, current state-of-practice approaches estimate spatial correlation separately from the GMM estimation, resulting in inconsistent and statistically inefficient estimators of interevent and intraevent variances and parameters in the spatial correlation model. We test whether this affects the subsequent cross-IM correlation analysis. To this aim, based on the newly developed GMM, the empirical correlation coefficients from interevent and intraevent residuals are investigated. Finally, a set of analytical correlation models between the selected IMs are proposed. This is of special interest as several correlation models between different IMs have been calibrated and validated based on advanced GMMs and global datasets, lacking earthquakes in extensional regions; however, modeling the correlation between different IM types has not been adequately addressed by current, state-of-the-art GMMs and recent ground-motion records for Italy.  相似文献   

20.
In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground-motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤ML≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the ML=7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake (21 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground-motion parameters (Fourier amplitude spectra, peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the models, and the observed data demonstrates that the models could provide an accurate prediction for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake and the largest aftershocks. However, there are some peculiarities in the ground-motion frequency content and attenuation that, most probably, are caused by the features of the rupture process of the large shallow earthquake source.  相似文献   

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