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1.
We describe and give hydrological applications of a probabilistic model based on extreme value theory which can be used to study the values of a hydrologic process that exceed a certain threshold level Q
B
.This model is useful in estimating extreme events X
T
of return period T based on N years of available hydrologic record. We also present easy-to-use tables which give confidence intervals for X
T
.The hydrologic applications reported are a flood frequency analysis, a methodology for estimating flood damage, an estimation of precipitation probabilities, and a prediction of extreme tide levels. 相似文献
2.
为了从实测洪水资料中获取更多的信息,提出PDS(Partial duration series)洪水频率分析模型并得到发展。介绍了PDS模型及其导出的AMS(Annual Maximal Series)模型的基本理论,综述了两种模型之间的比较研究。总结了PDS模型应用的关键技术,包括独立性判别、阈值的选取、超定量次数概率分布的选择。描述了PDS模型在区域洪水频率分析、PDS模型与贝叶斯理论结合研究的新进展,展望了PDS模型进一步研究的前景。 相似文献
3.
Farshad Ahmadi Feridon Radmaneh Gholam Ali Parham Rasoul Mirabbasi 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(3):1313-1331
Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin. 相似文献
4.
A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ayesha S. Rahman Ataur Rahman Mohammad A. Zaman Khaled Haddad Amimul Ahsan Monzur Imteaz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1803-1813
The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia. 相似文献
5.
A combined hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approach for testing efficiency of structural flood control measures 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
The necessity of estimating the degree and spatial extent of positive impacts with regard to protecting communities and properties
through potential flood control projects can be considered one of the main reasons for performing flood modeling. This paper
presents an overall systematic approach based on the simulation of some extreme event conditions, using a hydrological model
to generate the resulting river flows and then using a hydraulic modeling exercise to decide upon floodplain evolution in
the case-study area, Bostanli river basin, which has been under the threat of flooding for many years. The potential serviceability
of the planned Bostanli Dam in the study area was examined by using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS modeling tools, both integrated
with GIS functions for spatial operations. The results indicate that the dam construction as planned would have a somewhat
positive impact as a potential flood control measure, since it seems to decrease the flood peaks of 68.9 and 158.7 m3/s (that would potentially be generated by 100- and 500-year storm events under current conditions) to 65.5 and 150.7 m3/s (when the dam is in operation), respectively. However, this seems to contribute little to the overall flood mitigation
performance in the basin. 相似文献
6.
研究基于高阶概率权重矩的广义极值分布参数估计。根据高阶概率权重矩法原理,建立了广义极值分布高阶概率权重矩估算参数模型。以陕北地区4个水文测站的年最大洪峰流量序列为例,结果表明:高阶概率权重矩法能赋予大洪水值更多的权重。蒙特卡洛试验表明:适当提高阶数可以减小误差,但阶数过高反而会增大误差。 相似文献
7.
8.
Hatem A. Ewea Nassir S. Al-Amri Mohamed A. Dawoud Amro M. Elfeki 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(2):801-817
Forecasting and monitoring extreme floods in arid regions like Saudi Arabia (SA) are a big challenge for engineers and hydrologists. It is difficult to derive reliable flood estimates at any site without adequate flood measurements. Therefore, envelope curves were developed for reliable estimates of flood peaks. Relaying on recorded flood events in SA, Francou–Rodier approach is used to develop the Regional Maximum Flood (RMF) for some wadis and for SA as a whole. A total of 3121 flood events in 32 arid basins of sizes varying from 99 to more than 4500 km2 are collected and analyzed. Results show that established regional coefficients (K) range between 2.76 and 5.5. The RMF formula for the Saudi regions is Q?=?251 A0.45. The flood-frequency analysis showed that the Log-Pearson Type III is best. The extreme observed floods for the envelope curve for K?=?5.5 accommodate floods of recurrence interval ranging between 1000 and 100,000 years. The study results provide more realistic runoff peaks for a design of flood protection works for SA watersheds and for the similar environment. Consequently, it is recommended to use the developed envelope curves and models for efficient, safe and precise hydraulic structures design in SA. 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACT A process‐based facies model for asymmetric wave‐influenced deltas predicts significant river‐borne muds with potentially lower quality reservoir facies in prodelta and downdrift areas, and better quality sand in updrift areas. Many ancient barrier‐lagoon systems and ‘offshore bars’ may be better reinterpreted as components of large‐scale asymmetric wave‐influenced deltaic systems. The proposed model is based on a re‐evaluation of several modern examples. An asymmetry index A is defined as the ratio between the net longshore transport rate at the mouth (in m3 year?1) and river discharge (in 106 m3 month?1). Symmetry is favoured in deltas with an index below ≈ 200 (e.g. Tiber, lobes of the Godavari delta, Rosetta lobe of the Nile, Ebro), whereas deltas with a higher index are asymmetric (e.g. Danube – Sf. Gheorghe lobe, Brazos, Damietta lobe of the Nile). Periodic deflection of the river mouth for significant distances in the downdrift direction occurs in extreme cases of littoral drift dominance (e.g. Mahanadi), resulting in a series of randomly distributed, quasi‐parallel series of sand spits and channel fills. Asymmetric deltas show variable proportions of river‐, wave‐ and tide‐dominated facies both among and within their lobes. Bayhead deltas, lagoons and barrier islands form naturally in prograding asymmetric deltas and are not necessarily associated with transgressive systems. This complexity underlines the necessity of interpreting ancient depositional systems in a larger palaeogeographic context. 相似文献
10.
The Burdekin River is an example of a class of tropical streams which experience two to four orders of magnitude variation in discharge, in response to seasonal but erratic monsoonal rainfall. Floods of the Burdekin rise abruptly, reaching peak discharges of up to 40,000 m3 s-1 in less than 24 h; maintain peak flow for up to a few days, and recede exponentially. The geomorphology and deposits of these rivers reflect the extreme discharge fluctuations, and have not previously been described. A stretch of the upper Burdekin River comprising four bends and one straight reach was examined near the town of Charters Towers. The river bed is largely exposed for most of any year, with a small, misfit perennial channel carrying low stage flow. Major geomorphic elements of bends include point bars with ridge-and-swale topography, three distinct types of chute channels, avalanche slipfaces up to 5 m or more high around the downstream edges of bars, and on the outer part of one point bar an elevated, vegetated ridge. Straight reaches are flat or gently inclined, sand- and gravel-covered surfaces. Much of the river bed is covered by well sorted, in places gravelly, coarse to very coarse-grained sand with local accumulations of pebble to boulder gravel. Lower parts of the river bed are periodically draped by mud which is desiccated on exposure. Dunes and plane beds are the most commonly occurring bedforms, with local development of gravelly antidunes. Most bank tops and upper, vegetated bars are covered by silt and fine-grained sand. The river bed also hosts a low-diversity but locally high-abundance, flood-tolerant flora dominated by the paperbark tree Melaleuca argentea, which plays an important role in controlling the distribution of sediment. The gross geomorphology of the river bed and most of the sedimentary features are interpreted as having formed during major (bankfull or near bankfull) flows, which have a recurrence of about 18 years (based on 65 years hydrographic data). The initial rapid drop in discharge following flood peaks appears to preserve flood peak features on upper bars more or less intact, whereas lower areas are subjected to variable degrees of modification during falling stage and by more frequent, non-bankfull discharge events. 相似文献
11.
H. K. Pandey Shivam Dwivedi Kamlesh Kumar 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,92(3):286-290
Flood is common phenomena worldwide since time immemorial. Recently the change in climatic parameters has drastically affected the pattern and magnitude of flood. India being one of the tropical country face flood and drought situations every year, therefore it needs accurate assessment and forecast of flood for proper management of natural resources.An attempt has been made through the present study which consists frequency analysis on maximum daily discharge data in Betwa river at Basoda, Mohana and Shahijina gauging stations in Madhya Pradesh state using Gumbel’s Extreme value distribution and Log Pearson Type-3 distribution for 20 years period (1993-2012).The result shows that Log Pearson Type-3 distribution is better suited for Betwa basin. The results can be used by civil engineers for deciding the dimensions of hydraulic structures such as spillways, dams, bridges etc. Floods are forecasted for the different return periods for Betwa river. 相似文献
12.
Currently, the effect of dike breaches on downstream discharge partitioning and flood risk is not addressed in flood safety assessments. In a bifurcating river system, a dike breach may cause overland flows which can change downstream flood risk and discharge partitioning. This study examines how dike breaches and overflow affect overland flow patterns and discharges of the rivers of the Rhine delta. For extreme discharges, an increase in flood risk along the river branch with the smallest discharge capacity was found, while flood risk along the other river branches was reduced. Therefore, dike breaches and resulting overland flow patterns must be included in flood safety assessments.
相似文献13.
Floods are one of the most severe hydrological hazards that cause an excessive threat to landscape stability, population welfare, infrastructure and spatial development in the Syrian coastal region. Al-Hussain river basin, like other Syrian coastal basins, is prone to a hazardous, frequent-flooding threat. However, investigating the probable areas of flooding risk is a difficult challenge that results from the almost complete absence of spatially distributed geo-hydrological measurements in Al-Hussain river basin. In this regard, geohydromorphometric parameters (Stream number Nu, Stream length Lu, Bifurcation ratio Rb, Form factor F, Elongation ratio Eb, Drainage density Dd, Stream frequency Fs, Drainage texture Td, Lemniscate ratio K, Compactness index C, Circulatory ratio Rc, Ruggedness number Rn, Basin relief Hr, and Relief ratio Rr) derived from remote sensing data in the GIS environment can provide a comprehensive and objective approach that can be utilized to map the spatial distribution of flood hazards at the level of delineated sub-basins. This being the case, the present research focuses on exploring the spatial distribution of flood risk in ten sub-basins belonging to Al-Hussain river basin by using spatial techniques tools in order to overall determine the hydro-prioritization of conservation. The geo-visualization map of generated flash flood susceptibility evaluates five degrees of the flood risk: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The flood risk map indicates that Qalea, and Talaa sub-basins have massive hydrodynamic risk, which, in turn, indicates the urgent need of soil and water maintaining measures. This hydrological dynamic in these sub-basins is explained by high values of Dd, F, Rr, Rn, Rc, and K, respectively. Overall, the spatial outcomes of the current work successfully proved the efficiency of extracted geohydromorphometric layers from RS data in the context of the spatial assessment of flash flood hazard; they also ensure ecological sustainability and productivity of the study basin.
相似文献14.
Forecasting flood risk in the Indus River system using hydrological parameters and its damage assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hydrological parameters are among the widely used parameters in assessing flood risk. On the other hand, anticipated flood damages, in case of flooding, are estimated with the help of expected losses in areas nearer to the watercourse. The major source of almost every-year flooding in Pakistan is the Indus River system that comprises the major rivers of Pakistan. We first use observed data to construct simulated data models based on various probability distributions namely normal, lognormal, Weibull, largest extreme value, gamma-3, and log-Pearson type-3 distributions and thereby compute probable maximum flood. Secondly, we perform log-Pearson type-3 analysis with and without historic adjustment on the observed data series of 17 years to forecast floods with return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. We also categorize the river structures based on the risk of flooding. Lastly, we estimate risk of flood damages in terms of expected losses based on observed data. The present study reveals that the log-Pearson type-3 distribution is relatively better for estimating probable maximum flood. We use exceedence probability to assess the risk of flooding in the various structures of the said rivers. The analysis shows that flood damages in Pakistan may be reduced by increasing the design capacity of the structures and also by giving awareness to people about the flood-generating factors. 相似文献
15.
Dissolved (dialysis in situ) and total concentrations ofCu, Zn, Cd and Al in eight mining polluted rivers in the Røros area, central Norway, were determinedby atomic absorption spectrometry (flame and graphite furnace) and compared to pH, Caconcentration and alkalinity through seasonal variations in river discharge. Totalconcentrations of the metals were highest during early spring flood and during summer andautumn rain episodes. Dissolved concentrations also increased as the spring floodproceeded, but small discharge peaks within this 2 month period as well as a considerableautumn flood episode appeared to lower rather than to raise the dissolved metal concentrations.Consequently the dissolved fractions of Zn, Cd and Al showed a significant negative correlationwith river discharge, and were low at the discharge peaks. Possibly high sediment concentrationsoccurring at high flood conditions more than counteracted desorption induced by pHdecrease, and led to decreased dissolved fractions through adsorption. Cu speciationon the other hand seemed to be more closely linked to pH. Alkalinity and Ca concentration,both assumed to protect aquatic life from metal pollution, were significantly lowerduring episodes with high Cu and Al total concentrations. 相似文献
16.
17.
The river Odra, which rises in the Czech Republic and disgorges into the Baltic, suffered an extreme flood in July 1997 which was responsible for the loss of 55 lives and over a billion dollars worth of damage in southern Poland. The return period of the flood is variously estimated between 250 and 1000 years. The paper describes the hydrological and hydraulic studies undertaken for a flood reservoir (storage capacity is approximately 180,000,000 m3) to be constructed on the River Odra just upstream the ancient town of Raciborz, on the border between Poland and Czech Republic. These studies included the hydrodynamic modelling of a 220 km stretch of the river down to the city of Wroclaw where most of the damage occurred, flood damage analysis with and without the proposed reservoir, sensitivity analysis of operating rules for Nysa reservoirs and improvement of flood control capacity of existing channels and polders. Cost-benefits analysis, environmental impact assessments and resettlement plans, in addition to the engineering studies of the dam itself, were also carried out during the project stage but have not been included in the present paper. 相似文献
18.
The computation of flood magnitude and its likely occurrence to design different hydraulic structures are major challenges to the research community. The present study has been carried out to identify the homogeneous regions in the Mahanadi basin in Chhattisgarh part (data from 26 gauge/discharge sites) of India using conventional and clustering-based homogeneity tests and then computation and identification of probability-weighted moment and L-moment-based best regional distributions for different regions. Different simple to complex distributions like Extreme Value-I, Generalized Extreme Value, Logistic, Generalized Logistic, Generalized Pareto, Normal and Log-normal, Wakeby-4, and Wakeby-5 was used in the analysis through standardizing procedure to compute regional distributions. The best-fit distribution selected by simulating several series and compute L-kurtosis along with the L-moment ratio diagram. The homogeneity analysis confirmed that this basin can broadly be divided into two different homogeneous regions with 15 and 11 stations in the first (Region-1) and second (Region-2) regions, respectively. The GEV distribution was found best suited for Region-1 while the Generalized Pareto worked well for Region-2. To make results more convenient for field application, catchment area-based equations were converted in the form of Dicken’s or Ryve’s formulae for these regions to estimate flood quantiles of any return period.
相似文献19.
20.
The classical extreme value theory based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is applied to the wave height estimate based on wave hindcast data covering a period of 31?years for a location in the eastern Arabian Sea. Practical concern such as the threshold selection and model validation is discussed. Estimates of wave height having different return periods are compared with estimates obtained from different distributions. On comparing the distributions fitted to the GEV with annual maximum approach and GPD with peaks over threshold approach have indicated that both GEV and GPD models gave similar or comparable wave height for the study area since there is no multiple storm event in a year. Influence of seasonality on wave height having different return period is also studied. 相似文献