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1.
Heavy Rainfall Ensemble Prediction： Initial Condition Perturbation vs Multi-Physics Perturbation 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4 
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下载免费PDF全文 Mesoscale ensemble is an encouraging technology for improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall predictions. Occurrences of heavy rainfall are closely related to convective instability and topography. In mid-latitudes, perturbed initial fields for medium-range weather forecasts are often configured to focus on the baroclinic instability rather than the convective instability. Thus, alternative approaches to generate initial perturba- tions need to be developed to accommodate the uncertainty of the convective instability. In this paper, an initial condition perturbation approach to mesoscale heavy rainfall ensemble prediction, named as Different Physics Mode Method （DPMM）, is presented in detail. Based on the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5, an ensemble prediction experiment on a typical heavy rainfall event in South China is carried out by using the DPMM, and the structure of the initial condition perturbation is analyzed. Further, the DPMM ensem- ble prediction is compared with a multi-physics ensemble prediction, and the results show that the initial perturbation fields from the DPMM have a reasonable mesoscale circulation structure and could reflect the prediction uncertainty in the sensitive regions of convective instability. An evaluation of the DPMM ini- tial condition perturbation indicates that the DPMM method produces better ensemble members than the multi-physics perturbation method, and can significantly improve the precipitation forecast than the control non-ensemble run. 相似文献
2.
本文用新的边界层顶垂直速度参数化方案研究了当地形和边界层摩擦同时存在时二者对Eady波不稳定性的影响,得到了边界层层结、地面粗糙度、地形坡度的影响,还研究了摩擦和地形对一般化Eady波不稳定性的影响。 相似文献
3.
The nonlinear interaction of vorticity driven coastal currents and eddies with topography is studied. The topography is either a semi-infinite escarpment perpendicular to the coast (such that topographic waves propagate toward the coast) or a semi-circular canyon or seamount attached to the coast. Assuming a piecewise constant potential vorticity distribution, the quasigeostrophic equations are solved using contour dynamics. Offshore propagating dipole eddies occur, whenever a coastal current or eddy interacts with escarpment and canyon topographies. The size and frequency at which dipoles form are found to depend on the vorticity of the current and amplitude of the topography. However, for a seamount, little eddy shedding is observed and the coastal current or eddy skirts around topography. 相似文献
4.
Zhao Ming 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1990,4(4):453-463
In this paper,the simultaneous effects of boundary layer and topography on the instability of Eady waveare investigated by using a new parameterization of the vertical velocity at the top of PBL and the influencesof the stratification of the PBL,roughness and the slope of terrain are shown.Furthermore,the effects of theboundary layer friction and topography on generalized Eady wave are also investigated. 相似文献
5.
正压准地转模式中大地形作用下的低频波 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用包含大地形和常速纬向基本气流的正压准地转位涡度方程,研究了大地形对低频波激发的作用,结果表明,起作用的地形因子主要是地形的最大高度和地形坡度。地形最大高度的作用主要是使Rossby波趋向低频,而地形坡度的作用主要是对Rossby波的稳定性起决定作用,同时适当的地形坡度也可导致低频波的形成。而常速纬向基流在总体上的作用是使波动变得趋向低频,且西风基流更有利于低频（30～60天）波的形成。从纬向波数上看,纬向3波以上的波动更容易出现低频（30～60天）。 相似文献
6.
Topographically Forced Rossby Wave Instability and the Development of Blocking in the Atmosphere 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, the linear stability of disturbance superimposed on basic state Rossby wave forced by topography is investigated, and pointed out that when a certain criterion is satisfied by the basic flow and the height of topography for the subresonance, the small disturbance may be unstable. Furthermore, we also compare the evolution of the instability disturbance with the development of blocking in the Pacific, and we suggested that the topographically forced Rossby wave instability may provide a possible mechanism for the development of blocking in the Pacific. 相似文献
7.
利用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对2004年5月19日登陆的孟湾风暴进行了数值模拟分析,讨论了风暴中心移动路径,分析了风暴登陆前后的流场、动力场和热力场结构,并与西太平洋登陆台风的结构变化做了比较。结果表明,风暴中心的模拟路径与实况路径虽有一定误差,但总趋势均向东北方向移动,表明模式对本个例的模拟预报可以参考;孟湾风暴登陆前后,其结构与登陆台风变性阶段一样,经历了从热带气旋的基本对称的垂直分布结构演变到斜压非对称结构;风暴登陆后,由于地形和冷空气的作用,动力场和热力场表现为对流层中低层锋区增强、倾斜涡度发展,导致对流不稳定和斜压不稳定。 相似文献
8.
This paper reviews the main theoretical progress of mesoscale weather dynamics since 2003, including： （1） The dynamic mechanisms of balanced and unbalanced flow are applied to study the genesis and development problems of mesoscale circulation. The symmetric instability and transverse-wave instability are analyzed in line and vortex atmosphere convection, and further research has been done on nonlinear convective symmetric instability. The interaction between forced convection and unstable convection and the wave characteristics of mesoscale motion are also discussed. （2） Intermediate atmosphere dynamic boundary layer models are developed. The complicated nonlinear interaction is analyzed theoretically between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. The structure of the topography boundary layer, atmospheric frontogenesis, the structure and circulation of the low-level front and other boundary layer dynamic problems are discussed. （3） The formation and development of meso-β-scale rainstorms under the background of the East-Asia atmosphere circulation are diagnosed with the variation of MPV （moist potential vorticity） anomalies. And some physical vectors are modified and applied in the moist atmosphere. 相似文献
9.
一次华南暴雨的中尺度结构及复杂地形的影响 总被引：42，自引：15，他引：42
文中选取了 1998年 6月 8～ 9日的一次发生在华南的强降雨过程 ,利用观测资料和MM5中尺度模式对这个过程进行了诊断分析和数值模拟 ,研究了该暴雨过程的中尺度结构及华南地区复杂地形的影响。分析表明这次华南暴雨由锋面暴雨和暖区暴雨组成 ,具有不同的中尺度结构 ,其中广西梧州地区暴雨是准静止锋面上的中尺度对流系统造成 ,具有持续时间短 ,强度大的特征 ,MM5模拟的雷达回波强度超过 30dBz ,高度超过 2 0 0hPa ,并在其东、北侧出现闭合的次级垂直环流 ;珠江三角洲的暴雨是暖区暴雨 ,发生在深厚的暖湿气流内 ,85 0hPa上强度超过 16m/s的西南低空急流是影响降水的主要系统 ,该中心暴雨持续时间较长 ,降水强度也达到了暴雨标准 ,模拟雷达回波不明显 ,没有出现局地的次级环流。华南地区的复杂地形在这次华南暴雨过程中主要为动力性作用 ,具体表现在一支冷空气在低层由苗岭和南岭之间南下 ,南海上空一支暖湿气流北上直接到达梧州地区 ,另一支次暖湿空气在南岭的阻挡下由武夷山以南沿南岭和云开大山之间折而向西 ,这三支气流在梧州地区附近汇合 ,形成广西梧州地区的暴雨 ;同时南海上空北上的低层气流被迫向东北绕行海南岛 ,形成一个尺度为 2 0 0km左右的背风面气旋 ,这个气旋的东北部分加强了在珠江三角洲地 相似文献
10.
A horizontal shear flow having a Rossby number, Ro, greater than unity on a rotating plane can become unstable when its shear value is less than −f, the Coriolis frequency. In this paper, this instability is investigated for an O(10 km) submesoscale, sinusoidal shear flow in a thin homogeneous fluid layer as in an oceanic mixed layer or a shallow sea. The most unstable mode is shown by a linear analysis to occur in a narrow localized region centered around the maximum anticyclonic current shear. However, nonlinear numerical calculations show that the instability can grow to encompass both unstable and stable regions of the current. A consequence of this finite-amplitude evolution is the formation of surface convergence/shear fronts. The possibility that inertial instability mechanism is a source of some surface convergence/shear features seen in remote sensing images of the sea surface is discussed. A comparison is made with the shear-flow instability that can occur concurrently in a sinusoidal shear current, and inertial instability is shown to be the dominant instability mechanism in the immediate range above Ro=2. 相似文献
11.
Michael Zulauf John E. Hart Robert Leben Michael Mundt 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1996,25(2):87-107
This paper investigates the dynamics of mesoscale eddy generation by instability of time-varying flows. Laboratory experiments on oscillatory motion over topography in a rapidly rotating cylinder have shown that isolated mesoscale eddies, which form in the sidewall boundary layer during certain phases of the forcing cycle, are associated with the onset of chaotic behavior in this system. This paper explores the origin of these eddies by performing computational simulations of the flow, and then interpreting the results of the calculations using spatially localized and quasi-static linear stability theory. For most of the experimental parameter space the quasi-geostrophic simulations are in excellent agreement with the laboratory observations. The eddies arise as a barotropic shear flow instability in regions of space and at times where the inflection points of the instantaneous large-scale flow are farthest from the sidewall, and where Fjortoft's theorem is strongly satisfied. At finite amplitude, advection of the local wavetrains up the bottom slope strengthens the anticyclonic eddies. These then merge, leading in most circumstances to a single strong anticyclonic vortex that can leave the sidewall and penetrate the interior. When parameters are such that the eddy persists all the way around the basin and back to the local instability region, the flow is observed to become chaotic. 相似文献
12.
登陆台风Matmo（2014）北侧弱回波区突发多条强对流雨带,造成严重影响。本文利用NECP/NCAR的FNL（Final）再分析资料,地面自动站加密观测资料、雷达拼图资料等对台风北侧连续出现的3条对流雨带的触发和发展过程进行研究。结果表明:初始对流是在弱的对流不稳定和条件对称不稳定条件下,由锋面强迫和地形抬升作用共同触发。接二连三发生的3条对流雨带是在台风北部高湿环境,长时间稳定的水汽辐合,明显的对流不稳定,局部弱条件对称不稳定条件下,由近地面辐合线在辐合稳定并加强后触发的,有利的环境和多层不稳定的叠加有利于雨带的发展和维持。先后触发对流雨带的3条辐合线在发生位置上相当接近。辐合线的形成一方面由海陆下垫面差异、江苏和山东南部海岸线曲率、台风风速随半径分布特点所决定;另一方面,辐合线2和3的形成还与它们北侧对流雨带的冷出流密切相关。对流带上的强降水中心往往对应着稳定的辐合中心,辐合中心主要位于风速大小梯度明显的位置上。而辐合线上的风速梯度主要受海岸线、地形附近的降水分布影响。 相似文献
13.
Several numerical experiments are conducted to examine the influence of mesoscale, bottom topography roughness on the inertial circulation of a wind-driven, mid-latitude ocean gyre. The ocean model is based on the quasi-geostrophic formulation, and is eddy-resolving as it features high vertical and horizontal resolutions (six layers and a 10 km grid). An antisymmetrical double-gyre wind stress curl forces the baroclinic modes and generates a strong surface jet. In the case of a flat bottom, inertia and inverse energy cascade force the barotropic mode, and the resulting circulation features strong, barotropic, inertial gyres. The sea-floor roughness inhibits the inertial circulation in the deep layers; the barotropic component of the flow is then forced by eddy-topography interactions, and its energy concentrates at the scales of the topography. As a result, the baroclinicity of the flow is intesified: the barotropic mode is reduced with regard to the baroclinic modes, and the bottom flow (constrained by the mesoscale sea-floor roughness) is decoupled from the surface flow (forced by the gyre-scale wind). Rectified, mesoscale bottom circulation induces an interfacial form stress at the thermocline, which enhances horizontal shear instability and opposes the eastward penetration of the jet. The mean jet is consequently shortened, but the instantaneous jet remains very turbulent, with meanders of large meridional extent. The sea-floor roughness modifies the energy pathways, and the eddies have an even more important role in the establishment of the mean circulation: below the thermocline, rectification processes are dominant, and eddies transfer energy toward permanent mesoscale circulations strongly correlated with topography, whereas above the thermocline mean flow and eddy generation are influenced by the mean bottom circulation through interfacial stress. The topography modifies the vorticity of the barotropic and highest baroclinic modes. Vorticity accumulates at the small topographic scales, and the vorticity content of the highest modes, which is very weak in the flat-bottom case, increases significantly. Few changes occur in surface-intensified modes. In the deep layers of the model, the inverse correlation between relative vorticity and topography at small scales ensures the homogenization of the potential vorticity, which mainly retains the largest scales of the bottom flow and the scale of β. 相似文献
14.
Surface meteorological observations, associated with gust fronts produced by thunderstorm outflows over Tehran, an area surrounded by mountains, have been analyzed. Distinctive features are sudden drop in air temperature, up to 10℃, sharp increase in wind speed, up to 30 m s-1, with wind shift, to northwesterly, ressure jump, up to 4 hPa, humidity increase, up to 40%, and rain after some 20 min. Gust fronts which often occur in spring time, have a typical thickness of about 1.5 km and produce vertical wind shear of the order of 10-2s-1. Although these features seem to be common for most of the events, their intensities differ from one event to another, indicating that the gust fronts may occur in different sizes and shapes. Apart from a dominant effect on the formation of the original thunderstorms, topography appears to break up the frontal structure of the gust fronts. The internal Rossby radius of deformation for these flows is small enough (～ 100 km) for rotational effects to be minor.A laboratory model of the gust front (gravity current) also shows that it initially has a distinctive head with a turbulent wake, and can be broken up by topography. It is shown that when the environment is stratified, turbulence due to lobes and clefts instabilities near the nose of the current is suppressed. When the ground is rough, these instabilities are highly amplified and the internal Froude number of the flow is reduced. The bottom slope in the presence of rough topography leads to the break up of the current head and produces a broad and highly non-uniform head, recognized in the density signals. 相似文献
15.
近10年中国地区地形对降水影响研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
地形是影响降水的重要因子,其复杂性为研究降水的分布、强度等增加了难度,全面透彻地理解地形对降水的影响机制,有助于预警预报水平的提高。因此,地形对降水的影响研究受到广大气象学者的关注。本文通过回顾近10年来中国地区有关地形对降水的影响研究进展,简要概述了地形动、热力效应与云微物理过程对降水的影响机制,以数值模拟研究为主线,系统分析了中国各个地区关于地形作用的研究成果,重点讨论地形对局地中小尺度降水、锋面降水以及台风降水方面的影响,最后总结了目前的研究现状并提出一些需要深入研究的问题。 相似文献
16.
Mesoscale research conducted by Chinese meteorologists during the past four years is reviewed.Advances in theoretical studies include (a) mesoscale quasi-balanced and semi-balanced dynamics, derived through scale analysis and the perturbation method which are suitable for describing mesoscale vortices;(b) subcritical instability and vortex-sheet instability; (c) frontal adjustment mechanism and the effect of topography on frontgenesis; and (d) slantwise vorticity development theories, the slantwise vortex equation,and moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomalies with precipitation-related heat and mass sinks and MPV impermeability theorem. From the MPV conservation viewpoint, the transformation mechanism between different scale weather systems is analyzed. Based on the data analysis, a new dew-point front near the periphery of the West Pacific subtropical high is identified. In the light of MPV theory and Q-vector theory, some events associated with torrential rain systems and severe storms are analyzed and diagnosed.Progress in mesoscale numerical simulation has been made in the development of meso-α, meso-β vortices,meso-γ-scale downbursts and precipitation produced by deep convective systems with MM5 and other mesoscale models. 相似文献
17.
伊犁河谷是新疆地区暴雨多发且暴雨强度最强的地区。本文以该地区的一次特大暴雨过程为例,利用观测资料以及WRF高分辨率数值模拟结果对该次暴雨过程的环流背景及不稳定条件进行了分析。结果表明:（1）此次降水过程发生在对流层高层南亚高压“双体型”,中层中高纬度“两脊一槽”以及两个中亚低涡发展移动的环流形势下。在伊犁河谷特殊的向西开口的喇叭口地形作用下,中心位于哈萨克斯坦的中亚低涡导致伊犁河谷低层为偏西风,中心位于塔里木盆地的中亚低涡使得伊犁河谷中层为偏东风,导致伊犁河谷内中低层水平风的垂直切变增强;伊犁河谷内,地形及哈萨克斯坦中亚低涡环流的共同作用形成了低空辐合线,辐合线附近形成的辐合区正好与高空急流辐散区垂直叠加,引发河谷内的上升运动增强。低层西风将水汽输送进河谷,并在河谷内迎风坡附近堆积,上升运动增强后导致河谷内堆积的水汽得以抬升。（2）WRF模拟结果分析显示,散度分布、垂直风切变、水汽及热力层结分布等对降水产生均有重要贡献。通过对湿位涡垂直及水平分量的分析得出热力层结影响的对流不稳定对前期降水的产生有影响,同时,垂直风切变影响的对称不稳定对降水增强维持有重要作用。位势散度分析进一步指示出整个降水区低层的对流不稳定主要是由于位势散度的垂直切变部分造成,而位势散度的散度部分能加强河谷内小地形背风坡处的对流不稳定,说明整个降水演变过程中,动热力因子的相互作用共同影响了降水强度和落区。 相似文献
18.
GRAPES_MESO V3.3模式强天气预报性能的初步检验 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
本文针对2013年6月升级后的GRAPES_MESO V3.3模式预报产品进行了天气学检验。检验结果表明:模式能够较好地反映强对流过程发生发展的水汽、稳定度和垂直风切变等物理条件,8-10月期间,预报准确率随着季节的转换而有所不同,对于达到一定阈值条件的部分物理参数预报效果较好,对业务具有较好的参考价值。模式对于强降水以及华北雷暴大风和冰雹等强天气过程具有一定的预报能力,特别是高时空分辨率的产品能够在一定程度上较好地描述过程的发生发展,但对于极端强降水、受地形影响的强降水等,预报能力有限。 相似文献
19.
20.
低纬高原地形对强降水过程影响的数值试验研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
在对云南2001年5月31日～6月2日的强降水过程较为真实模拟的基础上,对云南特有的地形对此次强降水过程的影响进行了对比试验.结果表明:红河河谷的喇叭口地形结构对此次云南强降水的落区和降水强度都有着不可忽视的作用,它不但能改变近地层气流的走向,而且对低层水汽通量散度分布也有一定的影响;同时,改变云南南部地形对此次强降水过程的气流走向和水汽分布也都有影响,但相对而言不如红河河谷的作用显著;而降低云南东北部地形,则使云南北部的近地层气流辐合线发生变化,它主要对此次云南北部地区的降水产生影响,但对该地区水汽输送影响不大. 相似文献