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1.
Tools for accurately predicting environmental risks, such as the location and spatial extent of potential inundation, are not widely available. A dependence on calibration and a lack of available flood data have prevented the widespread application of existing hydrodynamic methods for predicting the extent of inundation. We use the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) terrain model to develop a simple static approach for mapping the potential extent of inundation that does not depend on flood observations and extends beyond methods for mapping low‐lying areas. While relying on the contour concept, the method utilizes drainage‐normalized topography and flowpaths to delineate the relative vertical distances (drop) to the nearest river. The HAND‐delineated relative drop is an effective distributed predictor of flood potential, which is directly related to the river stage height. We validated the new HAND contour approach using a flood event in Southern Brazil for which high‐resolution maps were available. The results indicated that the flood hazard‐mapping method accurately predicted the inundation extent of the channel carrying the flood wave and the channels influenced by flooding. For channels positioned outside of the flood‐wave area, the method overestimated the actual flood extent. As an original static assessment of floodwaters across the landscape, the HAND contour method could be used to map flood hazards in areas with poor information and could promote the development of new methods for predicting hydrological hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

In this study, a GIS-based integration of multi-criteria analysis and the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) terrain model was adopted to delineate potential flood hazard zones and vulnerability of the Ogun River Basin, Nigeria. Flood causative factors were used as input for multi-criteria analysis using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted overlay in ArcGIS 10.5 to generate potential flood hazard zones. The flood hazard map was overlaid with demographic population data to identify areas where vulnerable people and assets are located. The results show the varying degree of people’s susceptibility to flood hazards. Flood hazard zones were classified into Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low, with area coverage of 1269.40, 14139.50, 7188.40, 17.41 and 0.85 km2, respectively (occupied by 466 290, 355 542, 69 554, 231 and 54 people, respectively). This study serves as a preliminary guide for early warning and policy decision-making for flood disaster risk reduction.  相似文献   

3.
This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km2 in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously.

Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161.  相似文献   

5.
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

This paper presents a viable approach for flood management strategy in a river basin based on the European Floods Directive. A reliable flood management plan has two components: (a) a proper flood management strategy, and (b) the determination of the flood-hazard areas. A method to evaluate the benefits of a flood warning system is presented herein, as well as a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Six factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, rainfall intensity, geology and elevation. The study area was divided into five regions characterized by different degrees of flood hazard ranging from very low to very high. The produced map of flood-hazard areas identifies the areas and settlements at high risk of flooding. The proposed methodology can be applied to any river basin and here was applied to the Koiliaris River basin in Greece.

Citation Kourgialas, N. N. & Karatzas, G. P. (2011) Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas—a case study. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 212–225.  相似文献   

7.
Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km2 of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario.  相似文献   

8.
Flood hazard maps used to inform and build resilience in remote communities in the Terai region of southern Nepal are based on outdated and static digital elevation models (DEMs), which do not reflect dynamic river configuration or hydrology. Episodic changes in river course, sediment dynamics, and the distribution of flow down large bifurcation nodes can modify the extent of flooding in this region, but these processes are rarely considered in flood hazard assessment. Here, we develop a 2D hydrodynamic flood model of the Karnali River in the Terai region of west Nepal. A number of scenarios are tested examining different DEMs, variable bed elevations to simulate bed aggradation and incision, and updating bed elevations at a large bifurcation node to reflect field observations. By changing the age of the DEM used in the model, a 9.5% increase in inundation extent was observed for a 20-year flood discharge. Reducing horizontal DEM resolution alone resulted in a <1% change. Uniformly varying the bed elevation led to a 36% change in inundation extent. Finally, changes in bed elevation at the main bifurcation to reflect observed conditions resulted in the diversion of the majority of flow into the west branch, consistent with measured discharge ratios between the two branches, and a 32% change in inundation extent. Although the total flood inundation area was reduced (−4%), there was increased inundation along the west bank. Our results suggest that regular field measurements of bed elevation and updated DEMs following large sediment-generating events, and at topographically sensitive areas such as large river bifurcations, could help improve model inputs in future flood prediction models. This is particularly important following flood events carrying large sediment loads out of mountainous regions that could promote bed aggradation and channel switching across densely populated alluvial river systems and floodplains further downstream. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

9.
The numerical modeling of flood wave propagation following the hypothetical breaks of the embankments of the Bielkowo hydro-power plant storage reservoir (Kolbudy II Reservoir) on the Radunia River in Poland has been presented. The results of computations were used to estimate the parameters of the flood waves, which are indispensable for the flood zone determination and mapping and then for the flood risk analysis. When estimating the reach and area of the inundation, related to the embankments failures, digital terrain model, and mathematical model of flood wave propagation are necessary. For the numerical simulations of flood, the mathematical model of free surface, two-dimensional unsteady water flow was applied. Four locations of potential breaks of the reservoir embankments were considered. The computed flood zones were presented on the flood hazard maps. The maps have been used by the local authorities and the dam owner to manage the flood risk related to hydro-power plants operations on the Radunia River. This type of research has been done for the first time for the water plant managed by the ENERGA Elektrownie Straszyn.  相似文献   

10.
The capability of a simple kinematic‐storage model (KSM) is analysed to be used as a tool for a Decision Support System for the evaluation of probability inundation maps in near real time in poorly gauged areas. KSM simulates the floodplain as a storage and assumes no exchange of momentum with the channel. For the in‐bank flow, the storage is modified through a coefficient for taking the variations of channel cross sections into account. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach is used for addressing the probability flood maps along with their associated uncertainties. The model is tested on two river reaches along the Tiber River in Central Italy where observed inundation maps are available for two recent flood events. Despite the inherent uncertainties present in the input data and in the model structure, the results show that the model reproduces reasonably well, in terms of both precision and accuracy, the observed inundated areas. Tests were performed at different digital elevation model resolutions, showing a small effect of the geometry on the maximum performance obtained. The very low computational times, the parsimony of the model and its low sensitivity to the quality of the geometry representation of the channel and the floodplain makes KSM very appealing for flood forecasting and early warning system applications in poorly gauged and inaccessible areas. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
栅格新安江模型在天津于桥水库流域上游的应用   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
栅格新安江模型是在概念性新安江模型的理论基础上,以栅格为计算单元,结合地形地貌和下垫面特性构建出来的水文模型.在于桥水库流域上游的水平口流域应用栅格新安江模型,研究该地区洪水要素的空间变化以及洪水形成过程,讨论洪水模拟效果来验证模型在半湿润地区的适用性.选取水平口流域1978-2012年的洪水进行模型计算,模拟结果较好地反映了流域产流面积的时空变化,且均达到乙级以上精度.初步表明栅格新安江模型在半湿润地区有较好的适用性.  相似文献   

12.
Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Floods may lead to destruction of property, to damage to the environment and ultimately to loss of lives. Although it is not possible to avoid them, they are enhanced by human activities that increase the probability of occurrence of these natural events. Preliminary flood risk assessment and determination of areas of potential significant flood risk is mandatory according to the European Floods Directive (2007). In order to meet the established legislation, a methodology was developed that couples two modelling approaches: the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) and IBER. A target watershed, with complex orography and known to be vulnerable to flood hazards, is selected: the Vez River (northern Portugal). The performance of the HSPF model, driven by a climate gridded dataset, was assessed, followed by the reconstruction of the flow rate in the catchment for the period from 1950 to 2015. The results hint at an agreement between simulated and observed daily flow rates, with high coefficient of determination value and of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (> 0.7 daily timescale). A satisfactory performance was also found in reproducing flood peak events. An average deviation of 10% was found between observed and simulated flood peaks. The output of HSPF was subsequently used to drive IBER, thus determining flood hazard areas for a 10, 50 and 100-year return periods. The methodology presented here provides basic tools for decision-makers to evaluate hydrologic responses to climate data, namely the determination of flood hazard maps, but also risk assessment, water management, environmental protection and sustainability.  相似文献   

14.
In this article we analyse and compare the data on consequences of the catastrophic 2002 floods in two subcatchments of Otava river basin collected during specialized mapping in 2003. The Otava River is situated in the southwest of the Czech Republic. From its basin we have chosen two different subcatchments: Lower Otava River, surrounded by flat, lowland landscape and Losenice River, swift stream descending from the Sumava Mountains. We also present some basic data on the flood course and its hydrological parameters and meteorological causes.  相似文献   

15.
A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity of flood events. The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all of the variables involved in the overall process of flood inundation modelling. Despite our advanced understanding of flood progression, it is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty because of the constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, and technology. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis in flood inundation mapping can provide useful information for flood risk management. The twin objectives of this study were firstly to estimate the propagated uncertainty rates of key variables in flood inundation mapping by using the first‐order approximation method and secondly to evaluate the relative sensitivities of the model variables by using the Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System and triangle‐based interpolation were performed to investigate the uncertainty arising from discharge, topography, and Manning's n in the East Fork of the White River near Seymour, Indiana, and in Strouds Creek in Orange County, North Carolina. We found that the uncertainty of a single variable is propagated differently to the flood inundation area depending on the effects of other variables in the overall process. The uncertainty was linearly/nonlinearly propagated corresponding to valley shapes of the reaches. In addition, the HSY sensitivity analysis revealed the topography of Seymour reach and the discharge of Strouds Creek to be major contributors to the change of flood inundation area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Hydrogeomorphic models allow parsimonious, fast and effective floodplain extent mapping using topographic data as the main input. Hydrogeomorphic approaches enforce the principle that floodplains are well-distinguished and unique landscape features within river corridors. We investigated the sensitivity of a hydrogeomorphic floodplain delineation algorithm, based on a hydrological power law, relating flow depth to contributing area, digital terrain model (DTM) resolution and river network hierarchy. In addition, we compared the results to other common floodplain mapping methods using standard flood-hazard maps as a reference. Taking the Arno River Basin, Italy, as a case study, our results show a dependency between the optimal power law parameters and DTM resolution, with larger parameter values required to reach optimal consistency with flood-hazard maps as DTM resolution increased. Floodplain mapping performance was also found to depend on stream order. We further tested the model consistency at a larger scale to evaluate its performance with respect to inundation maps in Hungary, Italy, Spain and the UK. Our study suggests that pre-defined power law parameters can be assumed, considering DTM resolution and stream order, supporting the use of the presented hydrogeomorphic model for large-scale floodplain mapping in ungauged basins where reference flood-hazard maps are not available.  相似文献   

17.
Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods has caused serious consequences for human societies. The simulation of flood hazard maps and its depth in a river is one of the most complex processes in hydrology. In fact both geomorphological and hydraulic procedures for deriving the flood hazard maps and depth are imperfect at watershed scale. In this study, a combination of both procedures, using a probabilistic approach is used. Flood inundation maps for 2-, 10-, 25-,50- and 100-return period floods using flood routine within HEC-RAS in combination of Arc-GIS and topographic wetness index (TWI) map were produced. TWI threshold was identified using a maximum likelihood method in order to produce flood prone areas and calibrated over the reach of Zirab City. The correlation between TWI threshold and the flood depth was carried out and simple linear regression developed for various return periods. The resulting regression model is used in order to create flood hazard maps with various return periods at watershed scale.  相似文献   

19.
As flood inundation risk maps have become a central piece of information for both urban and risk management planning, also a need to assess the accuracies and uncertainties of these maps has emerged. Most maps show the inundation boundaries as crisp lines on visually appealing maps, whereby many planners and decision makers, among others, automatically believe the boundaries are both accurate and reliable. However, as this study shows, probably all such maps, even those that are based on high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), have immanent uncertainties which can be directly related to both DEM resolution and the steepness of terrain slopes perpendicular to the river flow direction. Based on a number of degenerated DEMs, covering areas along the Eskilstuna River, Sweden, these uncertainties have been quantified into an empirically-derived disparity distance equation, yielding values of distance between true and modeled inundation boundary location. Using the inundation polygon, the DEM, a value representing the DEM resolution, and the desired level of confidence as inputs in a new-developed algorithm that utilizes the disparity distance equation, the slope and DEM dependent uncertainties can be directly visualized on a map. The implications of this strategy should benefit planning and help reduce high costs of floods where infrastructure, etc., have been placed in flood-prone areas without enough consideration of map uncertainties.  相似文献   

20.
A physically based model of runoff formation with daily resolution has been developed for the upper part of the Ussuri basin with an area of 24400 km2 based on ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform. Two versions of the hydrological model have been studied: (1) a crude version with the spatial schematization of the drainage area and river network based on DEM 1 × 1 km with the use of soil and landscape maps at a scale of 1: 2500000 and (2) a detailed version with DEM 80 × 80 m and soil and landscape maps of the scale of 1: 100000. Each version of the model has been tested for two variants of meteorological inputs: (1) meteorological forcing data (temperature, air humidity, precipitation) at eight weather stations and (2) with the involvement of additional data on precipitation collected at 15 gages in the basin. The model has been calibrated and validated over a 34-year period (1979–2012) with the use of runoff data for the Ussuri R. and its tributaries. The results of numerical experiments for assessing the sensitivity of model hydrological response to the spatial resolution of land surface characteristics and the density of precipitation gaging stations are discussed.  相似文献   

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