共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Influence of land evapotranspiration on climate variations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere with a qualified biosphere (GOALS/LASG) has been used to assess the nature
of the physical mechanisms for land-atmosphere interactions, and the impacts of the Asian/North American land-surface evapotranspiration
on the regional and global climate. This sensitivity study suggests that the simulated climate would be relatively sensitive
to land surface evapotranspiration, especially over the Asian regions. The removal of evapotranspiration in Asia would create
a warmer and drier climate to a certain degree. Furthermore, the surface evapotranspiration anomalies would make a substantial
contribution to the formation and variation of subtropical anticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipitation and the
β -effect, but also make a large contribution to the variations of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere
and even the globe. Therefore, besides the traditional perception that we have generally emphasized on the influence of subtropical
anticyclones activities on the boreal summer precipitation over the regions of eastern China, the surface evapotranspiration
anomalies, however, also have substantial impacts on the subtropical anticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipitation.
For this reason, the variation in the internal heating sources of the atmosphere caused by the land surface evapotranspiration
and the vapor phase change during the boreal summer is an important external factor forcing the weather and climate. 相似文献
2.
Robert Reinecke Alexander Wachholz Steffen Mehl Laura Foglia Christoph Niemann Petra Döll 《Ground water》2020,58(3):363-376
Global-scale gradient-based groundwater models are a new endeavor for hydrologists who wish to improve global hydrological models (GHMs). In particular, the integration of such groundwater models into GHMs improves the simulation of water flows between surface water and groundwater and of capillary rise and thus evapotranspiration. Currently, these models are not able to simulate water table depth adequately over the entire globe. Unsatisfactory model performance compared to well observations suggests that a higher spatial resolution is required to better represent the high spatial variability of land surface and groundwater elevations. In this study, we use New Zealand as a testbed and analyze the impacts of spatial resolution on the results of global groundwater models. Steady-state hydraulic heads simulated by two versions of the global groundwater model G3M, at spatial resolutions of 5 arc-minutes (9 km) and 30 arc-seconds (900 m), are compared with observations from the Canterbury region. The output of three other groundwater models with different spatial resolutions is analyzed as well. Considering the spatial distribution of residuals, general patterns of unsatisfactory model performance remain at the higher resolutions, suggesting that an increase in model resolution alone does not fix problems such as the systematic overestimation of hydraulic head. We conclude that (1) a new understanding of how low-resolution global groundwater models can be evaluated is required, and (2) merely increasing the spatial resolution of global-scale groundwater models will not improve the simulation of the global freshwater system. 相似文献
3.
HSU HouTse 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(6):918-926
According to the features of spatial spectrum of the dynamic ocean topography (DOT),wavelet filter is proposed to reduce short-wavelength and noise signals in DOT. The surface geostrophic currents calculated from the DOT models filtered by wavelet filter in global and Kuroshio regions show more detailed information than those from the DOT models filtered by Gaussian filter. Based on a satellite gravity field model (CG01C) and a gravity field model (EGM96),combining an altimetry-derived mean sea surface height model (KMSS04),two mean DOT models are estimated. The short-wavelength and noise signals of these two DOT models are removed by using wavelet filter,and the DOT models asso-ciated global mean surface geostrophic current fields are calculated separately. Comparison of the surface geostrophic currents from CG01C and EGM96 model in global,Kuroshio and equatorial Pacific regions with that from oceanography,and comparison of influences of the two gravity models errors on the precision of the surface geostrophic currents velocity show that the accuracy of CG01C model has been greatly improved over pre-existing models at long wavelengths. At large and middle scale,the surface geostrophic current from satellite gravity and satellite altimetry agrees well with that from oceanography,which indicates that ocean currents detected by satellite measurement have reached relatively high precision. 相似文献
4.
Using remotely-sensed data, various soil moisture estimation models have been developed for bare soil areas. Previous studies have shown that the brightness temperature (BT) measured by passive microwave sensors were affected by characteristics of the land surface parameters including soil moisture, vegetation cover and soil roughness. Therefore knowledge of vegetation cover and soil roughness is important for obtaining frequent and global estimations of land surface parameters especially soil moisture.In this study, a model called Simultaneous Land Parameters Retrieval Model (SLPRM) that is an iterative least-squares minimization method is proposed. The algorithm estimates surface soil moisture, land surface temperature and canopy temperature simultaneously in vegetated areas using AMSR-E (Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS) brightness temperature data. The simultaneous estimations of the three parameters are based on a multi-parameter inversion algorithm which includes model construction, calibration and validation using observations carried out for the SMEX03 (Soil Moisture Experiment, 2003) region in the South and North of Oklahoma.Roughness parameter has also been included in the algorithm to increase the soil parameters retrieval accuracy. Unlike other methods, the SLPRM method works efficiently in all land covers types.The study focuses on soil parameters estimation by comparing three different scenarios with the inclusion of roughness data and selects the most appropriate one. The difference between the resulted accuracies of scenarios is due to the roughness calculation approach.The analysis on the retrieval model shows a meaningful and acceptable accuracy on soil moisture estimation according to the three scenarios.The SLPRM method has shown better performance when the SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR) data are used for roughness calculation. 相似文献
5.
Variability of interrill erosion at low slopes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Numerous models and risk assessments have been developed in order to estimate soil erosion from agricultural land, with some including estimates of nutrient and contaminant transfer. Many of these models have a slope term as a control over particle transfer, with increased transfer associated with increased slopes. This is based on data collected over a wide range of slopes and using relatively small soil flumes and physical principals, i.e. the role of gravity in splash transport and flow. This study uses laboratory rainfall simulation on a large soil flume to investigate interrill soil erosion of a silt loam under a rainfall intensity of 47 mm h?1 on 3%, 6% and 9% slopes, which are representative of agricultural land in much of northwest Europe. The results show: (1) wide variation in runoff and sediment concentration data from replicate experiments, which indicates the complexities in interrill soil erosion processes; and (2) that at low slopes processes related to surface area connectivity, soil saturation, flow patterns and water depth may dominant over those related to gravity. Consequently, this questions the use of risk assessments and soil erosion models with a dominant slope term when assessing soil erosion from agricultural land at low slopes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Improvement of the Noah land surface model for warm season processes: evaluation of water and energy flux simulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Noah model is a land surface model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It has been widely used in regional coupled weather and climate models (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Eta Mesoscale Model) and global coupled weather and climate models (i.e. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System, Climate Forecast System). Therefore, its continued improvement and development are keys to enhancing our weather and climate forecast ability and water and energy flux simulation accuracy. North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 1 (NLDAS‐1) experiments indicated that the Noah model exhibited substantial bias in latent heat flux, total runoff and land skin temperature during the warm season, and such bias can significantly affect coupled weather and climate models. This paper presents a study to improve the Noah model by adding model parameterization processes such as including seasonal factor on leaf area index and root distribution and selecting optimal model parameters. We compared simulated latent heat flux, mean annual runoff and land skin temperature from the Noah control and test versions with measured latent heat flux, land surface skin temperature, mean annual runoff and satellite‐retrieved land surface skin temperature. The results show that the test version significantly reduces biases in latent heat, total runoff and land skin temperature simulation. The test version has been used for the NLDAS phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) to produce 30‐year water flux, energy flux and state variable products to support the US drought monitor of National Integrated Drought Information System. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
O. N. Nasonova 《Water Resources》2012,39(1):56-68
The results of simulation of terrestrial water balance components are analyzed. The simulation involved six alternative datasets
on precipitation and four land surface models SWAP, NSIP, NOAH, and SSiB. The calculations have been carried out for the entire
land surface (except for the Antarctic Continent) with one-degree step in the space grid and three-hour time step over 1982–1995.
The extent of the influence of uncertainties in the specification of precipitation and the choice of the model on simulated
water balance characteristics is revealed. 相似文献
8.
复杂多变的陆地表微波比辐射率,造成陆面上星载微波观测反演大气参数较为困难,也使得许多卫星微波资料不易同化应用到数值模式,因此迫切需要提供准确可靠的陆面微波地表比辐射率信息.随着卫星观测技术的迅速发展,利用丰富的星载被动微波观测直接反演陆面微波比辐射率成为一种主要手段.国外针对星载微波成像仪和微波垂直探测器开展较为系统的陆面微波比辐射率研究,建立不同类型的地表比辐射率反演方法,开发地表比辐射率参数化方法并应用于辐射资料同化.对于卫星观测反演陆面微波比辐射率存在的问题,开展了评估分析和方法订正.国内利用卫星观测也开展了一些陆面微波比辐射率研究工作,尚需要系统、综合的提炼.对于地表特征复杂的中国地区,还需要评估认识不同陆面微波比辐射率反演方法在我国适用情况,需要增强陆面微波比辐射率数据质量的认识以及业务应用. 相似文献
9.
The aim of this work is to compare the relative impact of land and sea surface anomalies on Sahel rainfall and to describe the associated anomalies in the atmospheric general circulation. This sensitivity study was done with the Météo-France climate model: ARPEGE. The sensitivity to land surface conditions consists of changes in the management of water and heat exchanges by vegetation cover and bare soil. The sensitivity to ocean surfaces consists in forcing the lower boundary of the model with worldwide composite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies obtained from the difference between 4 dry Sahel years and 4 wet Sahel years observed since 1970. For each case, the spatiotemporal variability of the simulated rainfall anomaly and changes in the modelled tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and African easterly jet (AEJ) are discussed. The global changes in land surface evaporation have caused a rainfall deficit over the Sahel and over the Guinea Coast. No significant changes in the simulated TEJ and an enhancement of the AEJ are found; at the surface, the energy budget and the hydrological cycle are substantially modified. On the other hand, SST anomalies induce a negative rainfall anomaly over the Sahel and a positive rainfall anomaly to the south of this area. The rainfall deficit due to those anomalies is consistent with previous diagnostic and sensitivity studies. The TEJ is weaker and the AEJ is stronger than in the reference. The composite impact of SST and land surfaces anomalies is also analyzed: the simulated rainfall anomaly is similar to the observed mean African drought patterns. This work suggests that large-scale variations of surface conditions may have a substantial influence on Sahel rainfall and shows the importance of land surface parameterization in climate change modelling. In addition, it points out the interest in accurately considering the land and sea surfaces conditions in sensitivity studies on Sahel rainfall. 相似文献
10.
Numerous land surface models exist for predicting water and energy fluxes in the terrestrial environment. These land surface models have different conceptualizations (i.e., process or physics based), together with structural differences in representing spatial variability, alternate empirical methods, mathematical formulations and computational approach. These inherent differences in modeling approach, and associated variations in outputs make it difficult to compare and contrast land surface models in a straight-forward manner. While model intercomparison studies have been undertaken in the past, leading to significant progress on the improvement of land surface models, additional framework towards identification of model weakness is needed. Given that land surface models are increasingly being integrated with satellite based estimates to improve their prediction skill, it is practical to undertake model intercomparison on the basis of soil moisture data assimilation. Consequently, this study compares two land surface models: the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) for soil moisture estimation and associated assessment of model uncertainty. A retrieved soil moisture data set from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was assimilated into both models, with their updated estimates validated against in-situ soil moisture in the Yanco area, Australia. The findings show that the updated estimates from both models generally provided a more accurate estimate of soil moisture than the open loop estimate based on calibration alone. Moreover, the JULES output was found to provide a slightly better estimate of soil moisture than the CABLE output at both near-surface and deeper soil layers. An assessment of the updated membership in decision space also showed that the JULES model had a relatively stable, less sensitive, and more highly convergent internal dynamics than the CABLE model. 相似文献
11.
A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Soil heterogeneity plays an important role in determining surface runoff generation mechanisms. At the spatial scales represented by land surface models used in regional climate model and/or global general circulation models (GCMs) for numerical weather prediction and climate studies, both infiltration excess (Horton) and saturation excess (Dunne) runoff may be present within a studied area or a model grid cell. Proper modeling of surface runoff is essential to a reasonable representation of feedbacks in the land–atmosphere system. In this paper, a new surface runoff parameterization that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell is presented. The new parameterization takes into account of effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff and on soil moisture storage under different soil and precipitation conditions. The new parameterization is implemented into the current version of the hydrologically based variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model and tested over three watersheds in Pennsylvania. Results show that the new parameterization plays a very important role in partitioning the water budget between surface runoff and soil moisture in the atmosphere–land coupling system. Significant underestimation of the surface runoff and overestimation of subsurface runoff and soil moisture could be resulted if the Horton runoff mechanism were not taken into account. Also, the results show that the Horton runoff mechanism should be considered within the context of subgrid-scale spatial variability of soil properties and precipitation. An assumption of time-invariant spatial distribution of potential infiltration rate may result in large errors in surface runoff and soil moisture. In addition, the total surface runoff from the new parameterization is less sensitive to the choice of the soil moisture shape parameter of the distribution. 相似文献
12.
HydroBlocks: a field‐scale resolving land surface model for application over continental extents 
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下载免费PDF全文 Land surface spatial heterogeneity plays a significant role in the water, energy, and carbon cycles over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Until now, the representation of this spatial heterogeneity in land surface models has been limited to over simplistic schemes because of computation and environmental data limitations. This study introduces HydroBlocks – a novel land surface model that represents field‐scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs). HydroBlocks is a coupling between the Noah‐MP land surface model and the Dynamic TOPMODEL hydrologic model. The HRUs are defined by clustering proxies of the drivers of spatial heterogeneity using high‐resolution land data. The clustering mechanism allows for each HRU's results to be mapped out in space, facilitating field‐scale application and validation. The Little Washita watershed in the USA is used to assess HydroBlocks' performance and added benefit from traditional land surface models. A comparison between the semi‐distributed and fully distributed versions of the model suggests that using 1000 HRUs is sufficient to accurately approximate the fully distributed solution. A preliminary evaluation of model performance using available in situ soil moisture observations suggests that HydroBlocks is generally able to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal dynamics of soil moisture. Model performance deficiencies can be primarily attributed to parameter uncertainty. HydroBlocks' ability to explicitly resolve field‐scale spatial heterogeneity while only requiring an increase in computation of one to two orders of magnitude when compared with existing land surface models is encouraging – ensemble field‐scale land surface modelling over continental extents is now possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
The state of knowledge and outstanding issues with respect to the global mean energy budget of planet Earth are described, along with the ability to track changes over time. Best estimates of the main energy components involved in radiative transfer and energy flows through the climate system do not satisfy physical constraints for conservation of energy without adjustments. The main issues relate to the downwelling longwave (LW) radiation and the hydrological cycle, and thus the surface evaporative cooling. It is argued that the discrepancy is 18% of the surface latent energy flux, but only 4% of the downwelling LW flux and, for various reasons, it is most likely that the latter is astray in some calculations, including many models, although there is also scope for precipitation estimates to be revised. Beginning in 2000, the top-of-atmosphere radiation measurements provide stable estimates of the net global radiative imbalance changes over a decade, but after 2004 there is “missing energy” as the observing system of the changes in ocean heat content, melting of land ice, and so on is unable to account for where it has gone. Based upon a number of climate model experiments for the twenty-first century where there are stases in global surface temperature and upper ocean heat content in spite of an identifiable global energy imbalance, we infer that the main sink of the missing energy is likely the deep ocean below 275?m depth. 相似文献
14.
Jinjing Pan Wei Shangguan Lu Li Hua Yuan Shupeng Zhang Xinjie Lu Nan Wei Yongjiu Dai 《水文研究》2019,33(23):2978-2996
Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of land surface‐atmosphere interactions. Data‐driven methods have been used to predict SM, but the predictability of SM has not been well evaluated. This study investigated what variables and methods can be used to better predict SM for leading times of 7 days or longer with a global coverage of FLUXNET site data for the first time. Three machine‐learning models, that is, Bayesian linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting regression tree, are used for the prediction. Variables including atmospheric forcing, surface soil temperature, time variables (year, day of year, and hour), the Fourier transformation of time variables, and lagged SM (7‐ to 14‐day lagged) were sequentially added into models. A framework with five experiments is designed for factorial exploration of SM predictability. A stepwise method was used to build the best models for each site. The performance of regression models became better when adding more explaining variables in most cases. The results showed that from 50 to 95% of variation of the best models can be explained. The important explaining variables are lagged surface SM, followed by day of year, year, soil temperature, and atmospheric forcing. The predictability of SM depends highly on SM memory characteristics and the persistence of seasonality. The effect of SM memory characteristics on SM prediction as an initial condition question has been widely discussed in this paper. Our results also provide an insight that mechanisms of seasonality effects on SM should be also paid more attention to. 相似文献
15.
Land surface schemes (LSSs) represent the interface between land surface and the atmosphere in general circulation models (GCMs). Errors in LSS‐simulated heat and moisture fluxes can result from inadequate representation of hydrological features and the derivation of effective surface parameters for large heterogeneous GCM gridboxes from small‐scale observations. Previous assessments of LSS performance have generally compared simulated heat and moisture fluxes to observations over a defined experimental domain for a limited period. A different approach has been evaluated in this study, which uses a fine‐resolution calibrated hydrological model of the study basin to provide a quasi‐observed runoff series for direct comparison with simulated runoff from a selected LSS at GCM scale. The approach is tested on two GCM gridboxes covering two contrasting regions within the Nile Basin. Performance is mixed; output from the LSS is generally compatible with that of the fine‐resolution model for one gridbox while it cannot reproduce the runoff dynamics for the other. The results also demonstrate the high sensitivity of runoff and evapotranspiration to radiation and precipitation inputs and show the importance of subtle issues such as temporal disaggregation of climatic inputs. We conclude that the use of a fine‐resolution calibrated model to evaluate a LSS has several advantages, can be generalized to other areas to improve the performance of global models and provides useful data that can be used to constrain LSS parameterizations. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
青藏高原大地形的热力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和发展具有重要的影响.本文利用较高分辨率的WRF区域模式,探讨了高原不同区域(斜坡和平台)的地形加热分别对南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风的影响.结果表明:高原南部喜马拉雅山脉的斜坡地形加热对其周围局地的环流形势和降水影响十分明显,是南亚夏季风北支分量形成和维持的主导因子,也是斜坡上气流爬坡和降水发生的必要条件.斜坡加热对东亚夏季风也有明显的增强作用,它不仅加强了中国东部低空西南季风环流,还会造成北部南下的异常干冷空气的响应.斜坡上的地形加热作用也是对流层高层暖中心位置维持在斜坡上空的一个重要原因.而高原平台加热对季风环流和降水的影响虽然没有喜马拉雅山脉斜坡加热那么显著,但是对南亚夏季风的影响范围更广,对经向哈得来环流影响更明显,能够调控高原以外更远处热带洋面上的西南季风环流.通过比较高原不同区域地形加热条件下的多种季风指数,进一步表明了高原地形加热对南亚和东亚夏季风均有增强作用,但是高原不同区域的地形加热对两类夏季风子系统又会产生不一样的影响. 相似文献
17.
The continuous efforts on establishment and modernization of the geodetic control in Turkey include a number of regional geoid
models that have been determined since 1976. The recently released gravimetric Geoid of Turkey, TG03, is used in geodetic
applications where GPS-heights need to be converted to the local vertical datum. To reach a regional geoid model with improved
accuracy, the selection of the appropriate global geopotential model is of primary importance. This study assesses the performance
of a number of recent satellite-only and combined global geopotential models (GGMs) derived from CHAMP and GRACE missions’
data in comparison to the older EGM96 model, which is the underlying reference model for TG03. In this respect, gravity anomalies
and geoid heights from the global geopotential models were compared with terrestrial gravity data and low-pass filtered GPS/levelling
data, respectively. Also, five new gravimetric geoid models, computed by the Fast Fourier Transform technique using terrestrial
gravity data and the geopotential models, were validated at the GPS/levelling benchmarks. The findings were also compared
with the validation results of the TG03 model.
The tests showed that as it was expected any of the high-degree combined models (EIGEN-CG03C, EIGEN-GL04C, EGM96) can be employed
for determining the gravity anomalies over Turkey. In the west of Turkey, EGM96 and EIGEN-CHAMP03S fit the GPS/levelling surface
better. However, all the tested GGMs revealed equal performance when they were employed in gravimetric geoid modelling after
de-trending the gravimetric geoid model with corrector surface fitting. The new geoid models have improved accuracy (after
fit) compared to TG03. 相似文献
18.
Yoshihide Wada Benjamin F. Chao Jida Wang Min-Hui Lo Chunqiao Song Yuwen Li Alex S. Gardner 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):131-152
Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth’s surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations. 相似文献
19.
In this study, a parameterization method based on Landsat‐7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data and field observations is presented and tested for deriving the regional land surface variables, vegetation variables and land surface heat fluxes over a heterogeneous landscape. As a case study, the method and two Landsat‐7 ETM images are applied to the Jiddah area of Saudi Arabia. The regional distribution maps of surface reflectance, normalized difference vegetation index, modified soil adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI), vegetation coverage, leaf area index, surface temperature, net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux have been determined over the Jiddah area. The derived results have been validated by using the ‘ground truth’. The results show that the more reasonable regional distributions of land surface variables (surface reflectance, surface temperature), vegetation variables (MSAVI and vegetation coverage), net radiation, soil heat flux and sensible heat flux can be obtained by using the method proposed in this study. Further improvement of the method is also discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Richard P. Allan Chunlei Liu Matthias Zahn David A. Lavers Evgenios Koukouvagias Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):533-552
Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks. 相似文献